SuperCoach Psychology 101 – Emotional v Logical Reasoning

Peter HigginbothamDuring this desperately joyous week of our fantasy football lives, I felt it timely to offer you a potential fantasy mind cleansing – Some game thinking that takes a step back and looks at the key factors weighing into our collective decision making processes.

 
 
 
 
Excepts from Rudyard Kipling’s “If”;
……
If you can keep your head when all about you   
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;   
…..
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;   
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;   
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;   
…..
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
……
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

 

Magnificence penned in 1895 with the final line seemingly delivered from Jock himself!

Doubts, blame, dreams, risks …. “if you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two imposters just the same.” Powerful. Strength in our convictions, to remain stoic and unaffected.

Unfortunately, we are not unaffected. When it comes to the decision making processes around selecting our starting squads, our brains are hard-wired to work against us. How can we remain stoic and unaffected when we evolved to be driven by emotion, to follow the herd – to survive.

Our emotional reasoning is eager, noisier and holds sway over our logic. Our brains are still working as they evolved – to be dealing with the issues as they would arise on the African plains – survival means quick response times and conforming to the group. Decisions that pay off are well regarded. Social acceptance will result in increased connectivity and as a consequence, an increased survival probability.

In the 2015 preseason I wrote an article on Shoal verses Shark game play. The underlying concept within was that while there was much safety and comfort to be drawn from starting with the common consensus in your selection strategy, doing so would mean that you simply could not rank highly enough to win.

Refusing to follow the crowd goes against every instinct – it is why there is a crowd to follow in the first place! Consider a scenario where a coach makes a comment on a player who he advises may spend more game time in a potentially higher point scoring role. This throw-away line, a line that the media might well have provoked and cut, feeds online chatter and the selection now becomes high on people’s selection radar. This player plays well during a NAB game in undermanned squads and performs better than previous statistics would dictate. Highly connected online fantasy communities begin to find reasons as to why this player becomes strategic while finding reasons to ignore potential associated risks. That small seed of possibility initially thrown out by the coach and replicated in an unrealistic game, now has been nurtured by the media, fertilised online and begins to spread its roots. Suddenly, this selection is being locked into starting fantasy lineups across the country.

The proliferation of fantasy football information available online is both the best and worst thing to happen to fantasy football. In many instances, it is quite probable that your decisions can actually become worse with the more information you receive. Rising confidence generated via a saturation of knowledge – statistics, coaches or player comments, expert analysis, new articles, multiple appearances in ‘Rate My Teams”. This socially acceptable pick now results in a fixed and rigid mindset.

We must value objectivity over both optimism and pessimism when making decisions and guard ourselves against any of the herd’s speculative euphoria. Be aware and acknowledge that a strong emotional cognitive bias is at play in each and every preseason.

While I did not want to mention any actual player names as it would in many ways contradict my key message, I would like to offer up one example purely to consider in the context of this opinion piece. I am in no way endorsing or condemning these selections, merely using them as a discussion piece.

Player Position Price Projected Rd.1 Score Break-Even % Ownership
Daniel Hannebery MID $617,900 101 115 10.2
Travis Boak MID $535,200 102 99 1.3

Without going into the fantasy relevant pros and cons of the selections, is Hannebery an example of a preseason hype pick? Is the elevated spend of $82,800 on Hannebury justified when comparing him to Boak? Did Hannebury’s NAB Challenge hit-out against Carlton where he scored 139 result in an over-inflated ownership rate?

…..

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too
….. 

Shark, shoal and now consider the pioneering ant.

Screen Shot 2016-03-21 at 8.28.14 AM

The colony of ants is presented with two equidistant and identical food sources. The socially predicted outcome will be a mass gathering on only one of the food sources. Will you be the brave pioneering ant who strikes out on its own and feasts on the possibility of excess even if failure will mean social rejection?

I just deleted my team – it’s time to start again.

Enjoy this most significant week!

 

Kind regards,

Peter J Higginbotham

Comments (469)

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  1. Lucas says:

    Ah noooo…too late to go back to formula now, surely?

  2. Shake n bake says:

    Got me thinking my Hannebery selection not that I think he's a gun but Shiel wines Parker Duncan I'm sure will be guns to and this is sc could really use the coin to strengthen other lines just hope to get that selection right. I had Hannebery at m4.

    • MaccasMarvels says:

      I have Hannebery at m4 too. He finished top 10 midfielders last year from memory. Was very strong. High price, yep. It's a bit of a roller coaster….. he went sub-100 7 times, and went +130 8 times!

    • I N Pieman says:

      Hes a Jet pick him with confidence

    • Benjamima Puddleduck says:

      Duncan had been on the cusp of my team for a while, for a similar price and same team i think Cam Gutherie is going to be the next Jimmy Bartel, may push for a Brownlow this year..?no? Next year.
      Another name in the mix

      =0

    • SCaddict says:

      Don't let Higgo get in your head.

      Hanners looooves the SCG averaging nearly 130 there last season and the Swans now play every single home game there in the regular season. Confident he will again finish a top 10 mid this season.

  3. REN says:

    Say Yes or No if youre starting with the following

    Shaw

    Goldy

    Gaz

    Libba

    Crouch

    Dusty

    Hall

    interested to see why or why not people are going in with some of the hype names this preseason

  4. Tret says:

    have people gone cold on Bartel? Hasnt been spoken about as much lately. Still a good choice?

    • Holty says:

      He is in my team Tret. People are scared he will be rested or get injured. Not sure why as last year was his only year he had been injured. As for resting, there has been no real indication it will happen.

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      don't like the bartel pick this year. People would be selecting him as a keeper, which he isn't

    • Chill says:

      I don't like the Bartel pick either. Long in the tooth. Will get rested. I think there are some other contenders around that price range who could be real options as keepers – Simpson, KK, Docherty (maybe?), Laird is only a little bit more expensive and a definite keeper. Brodie Smith even… although there is risk.

      • FootyFanatic says:

        You say Bartel is too "long in the tooth" but then suggest to pick Simpson…

        • Benjamima Puddleduck says:

          Long in the tooth is such a cop out!
          They are playing on the book ends not pushing themselves through the middle, though i expect we will see Bartel playing all over the pitch like a majestic beast he is.

          Not in my starting team (probably should be), but i expect he will make it in at some point.

    • Redgumwon says:

      No I've still got Jimmy B in the backline. I've gone cold on Dusty even with Lids out. I'm thinking maybe Robinson now

    • Mr Question Face says:

      Why would Bartel be rested? Considering the longer-toothed Corey Enright played 21 games last year, I'd be thinking old mate Bartel will play every game he's good to go for.

      • Tret says:

        Chris Scott has said he'd be suprised if Bartel played all 22 games so will obviously be rested.

        • Benjamima Puddleduck says:

          He might miss say 1 game
          How many is it till he reaches 300 games this year?

    • DuckingTigers says:

      The concussion will knock him back a bit. It usually takes four or five weeks for players scores to recover after a bout and they're more susceptible to injury in the aftermath.

  5. lostlarrikin says:

    This is arguably your finest hour Higgo.
    Simple, subtle and significant.

  6. Holty says:

    Great insight Higgo and keep up the great work you do for this community.
    But I for one will not be changing my team again as I was never one who was very interested in poetry.

  7. Boris Baconbeer says:

    I was happy with having a different team. Then big Carl revealed his and I was dissapionted only two different players. One a rookie. So now what do I do? I want to change….I think I will , there were a couple more risks I wanted to take and this from Higgo has encouraged me. I don't care if it fails, chances are I won't win 50k anyway. "There can be only one" and in fact I think I am more likely to win if I am different. Of course that doesn't mean I'm picking Cloak.
    Annoying cos I've been settled on my side for almost two weeks, a very long time in fantasy land.

  8. bAps says:

    Houli and Robinson, or Birchall and Dusty?

  9. Noah says:

    McGovern or Johannisen?

  10. REN says:

    Laird, Hurn and Smith

    or

    Shaw, Hurn/Smith and weitering

  11. Wombat says:

    What would Shaw have to average to keep his starting price?

  12. Shake n bake says:

    Teams starting with all these players together Fyfe Danger Rocky Shiel Goldy Martin Barlow Rich all have there bye together…Concern?

  13. Steeeve says:

    Okay I'll be the one to ask, can someone who subscribes to Gold please post The Phantom's team reveal? Thanks!

    • Ooooo that would be an interesting side….

    • SCaddict says:

      I think you mean a Herald Sun digital subscriber pass …. and yes I happen to have one of those so you're in luck!

      THE PHANTOM
      Shaw, KK, Smith, Harwood, Weitering, Brown (Hartley, Broad)
      Danger, Gaz, Gray, Rocky, Cripps, Libba, B.Crouch, Mills (Menadue, Hewett, Davis)
      Goldy, Gawn (Chol)
      Barlow, Greene, De Goey, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge (Petracca, Grimley)

      I could post the entire article but a) that wouldn't be right and b) I really don't want to get sued! :)

      • Chill says:

        Geez cripps is tempting.

      • mick says:

        great side by the phantom but still a few maybes kk harwood b smith b crouch injury greene de goey petracca not playing grimley no money whats ur thoughts addict

        • SCaddict says:

          Premo differences aside I give the thumbs up to his overall structure although his defence is perhaps a little more midprice mayhem for my own taste as I prefer a pure GnR flavour on that particular line myself this season.

          However we have the identical philosophy in seeking value in the forward line and we both have De Goey at F3 and Wells at F4. Although interestingly he's not buying into the hype surrounding Hall and rolling with the Greene Machine instead at F2.

          He'll make the same tweaks to rookies that we'll all make Thursday night so wouldn't read too much into those picks there.

          But in a nutshell I like his squad a lot and think he'll have another tremendous season.

          • Connor says:

            I'm sorry but I have to ask who is The Phantom, and where does he generally finish?

            • SCaddict says:

              The Adelaide Advertiser's resident fantasy guru.

              Finished 30th overall in the nation last year and knows a thing or two about how to approach this Supercoach caper.

              Has a lot of interesting fantasy titbits on his twitter feed so you should check it out Connor:

              https://twitter.com/thephantomsc

            • Scouser says:

              He's a SuperCoach writer for the Adelaide Advertiser (and associated papers) Connor. Finished 30th overall last year and has very reasoned views. As an aside on his team choice of Greene v Hall he's said it's a personal choice due to him having Greene in from the beginning, (was in his initial team reveal back in Jan), and he's said he just can't fit Hall in but there's no doubting him anymore so not sure SCAs view is entirely accurate. I share his faith in Cripps also and he's got my VC loophole going into the opening game, can't wait for that first bounce of the year!

  14. Grahame Lebroy says:

    How do u work out what a players break even will be?

  15. Bill says:

    Community,
    Laird & B.Crouch
    Or
    Shaw & Oliver

  16. Langers says:

    Aaaaaah….from the comment I see the herd is in no danger!!! But, like lostlarrikan, I agree that…This is arguably your finest hour Higgo.
    Simple, subtle and significant.

  17. Derek says:

    excellent advice Higgo. In other words, its ok to start the year with Lobbe?

    • Steeeve says:

      Please do it just so the rest of us can see what happens haha

      • Derek says:

        there is a saying "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".

        the sound of the Bell-chambers is still ringing in my ears from last year!

  18. Woody says:

    Another absolutely brilliant article Higgo! 1st time poster & let me say im honoured to be on board. Defo best fantasy website on the land so thank you very much jock & team -legends.

    Im about 85% happy with my current team, with the def doing my head in this yr – just looks crap with whatever options i come up with:

    Def: Laird, McGovern, JJ, Seedsman, M. Brown, Adams, Broad, Ruggles
    Mid: Ablett, Pendles, Gray, Shiels, Rocky, Duncan, B. Crouch, Mills, Menadue, Gresham, Davis
    Ruck: Nic, Gawn, Grims
    Fwd: Barlow, Robbo, Hall, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge, McCarthy,Tippa.
    $30k left over.

    I comfortably think i have 12 keepers, with worst case 3 stepping stones (duncan, crouch, wells).

    Prob like everyone the biggest concern i have is my def, but just cant offload the cash on shaw or the veterans over $500k. I like players that are a gd chance to play 20+ games.

    Player selections that are doing my head in are:
    Duncan v jelwood (concerned jelwood is not right)
    B. Crouch v Libba (concerned with libba coming back from acl will he generate enough coin?)
    JJ v Bartel v birchall (does anyone know how birchalls knee is – 100%? I do want him!)
    Seeds v Sheridan v lonergan.
    Very scared about ablett missing games i have him atm, but very tempted 2 bring in a hannerbury, priddis type that are safe 2 play all season. Just dont want to miss on those massive scores he pumps out.

    No goldy, shaw, danger, fyfe, martin or lids – confident i can get them cheaper, especially shaw who will be my 1st upgrade.

    Btw Jock how do i upload a article? I have prepared a very valuable stat spreadsheet that i would like to share with the community.

    Good luck to everyone & please provide feedback on my team & player selections im quelling over – i can take the good, with the bad…:)

    • Libba definitely over Brouch. 50/50's the rest for mine. I think need to downgrade to Dea in the backline. Then libba in. Cheers

    • Southern S says:

      Jelwood had a good game on the weekend didn't he? I'd take him over Duncan any day.

      Crouch and Libba.

      I'm not going to make a choice here because it's just a guess / biased opinion, anything can happen with these guys and both potentially can score huge.

      JJ v Bartel v Birchall.

      Tough one. Maybe Birchall. Has been pretty consistent for several years. Bartel won't be getting much mid time. JJ has unpredictable scoring imo.

      Seeds v Sheridan v Lonergan.

      Another tough one. My guess is 1. Lonergan, 2. Seeds, 3. Sheridan.

      • Benjamima Puddleduck says:

        Let me throw Cam Guthrie into your Geelong Mix.
        You should be looking at Libba vs Hunter
        Id look at Lonergan out of those.

        • Woody says:

          Thanks Ben, but dont confuse me anymore with more cat players :) I definitely have considered hunter, but just cant afford/fit him in ahead of any of my other preferred selections.

      • Woody says:

        Thanks mate. I think Duncan is in for a big year though wont get tagged, but love jelwood how he goes about it. Plays through injuries & i think with danger on board can only help him get back to that 115+ avg, especially with the cats draw. Yep thats why i like birchall consistent & at that perfect age with thinking he will be the #1 rebounding defender again with gibbo going back to a more kpp role. I know you cant take 2 much out of nab, but just like how the crows used seeds in that attacking role.

        • Benjamima Puddleduck says:

          I have Selwood in my team, i definitely think with Danger around will only help Selwoods scoring too.

          I have gibbo in my team, been trying to find where it was stated that he was going to play a KPP role this year.
          after reading some interestig stats from him last year, i have no idea why on earth they would play him as a KPP.

  19. Chill says:

    Is it bad that I can't wait to see who the biggest burnmen of the season will be? Geez i'm hoping it's the Crouch boys.

  20. Browny says:

    Which option is better?
    Goldy and J Selwood
    or
    Ablett and Sauce Jacobs

  21. Mark says:

    Higgo, what is a single trade worth in Supercoach dollar terms? That is, if you could purchase additional trades out of your $10million war chest, what would a single trade be worth? I've seen $150k thrown around but I've not seen any basis for that figure. Whatever the actual figure is, I think it may help inform our strategies. PS: Great article, well done mate

    • 30*$150k=$4.5m
      Total team value over $14m…which is what you should be aiming for. There is a bit of an allowance for injury trades and the players you bring in making some ca$hola. No science though…you take what you can get :-)

      Not sure if anyone has done something more scientific than that…

  22. Keenbutclueless says:

    Barlow is the best example of what Higgo is talking about. Ross made some comment we all jumped on. The NAB Cup seemed to confirm it, but with Mundy missing at least one and Fyfe being eased in, that was always going to happen. I was not considering Barlow at all, but now it is difficult to unlock him. To take it one step further, if we are fully convinced on Barlow, does that mean we shouldn't pick Fyfe? Can he live up to that price tag with Barlow taking extra midfield minutes and Bennell coming in? I have Fyfe and Barlow and I am starting to feel like it is a little illogical

    • kevwal says:

      Feeling the same about Gaz and Hall.

    • Holty says:

      Barlow and Fyfe will both be fine. Just look back 2 seasons ago when they played in the mids together.

      • Benjamima Puddleduck says:

        There is alot more than just Barlow and Fyfe…
        Im taking Barlow to start, i think Bennel will be better later in the year.
        So much guess work going into SC teams this year, and real teams will evolve as well in turn will change our SC teams.

        We rely on previous years experience and what we read and hear in the footy media, but still so much quess work with a big interchange difference.

  23. @t_woof says:

    Outstanding Higg!

    Bring on Thursday night!

    • Average Joe says:

      Where have you been all preseason? Haven't seen any of your comments in ages

      • @t_woof says:

        G'day Joe!

        Posted a few comments early in the pre season, but not much recently. Super Coach doing my head in. Haven't once been happy with my team when i've clicked the log out button.

        How is you team coming along mate? Hope you've settled on a team better than i have!

        • Average Joe says:

          Yeh pretty much locked all non-rookies except for 1 player. Big POD, just not sure if he's worth the risk or not. Good luck for the season mate!

  24. Jimmy says:

    Grouse Higgo, wise as always.

    need everyones advice here

    gotta make the choice between Rampe and Birchall?

    Cheers lads

    • Scouser says:

      Tough one that Jimmy, but I reckon Birchalls shown enough in nab to prove to us his knees alright. I've been trying to fit him in but just can't do it, defence sucks this year but when doesn't it!

  25. Cliffy says:

    Hey guys,

    Any more leagues that haven't been filled out entirely? I usually like to be in at least 5 leagues per season I've played SC, and I'm only in the 2 right now.

    For any free leagues remaining chuck me some league codes, cheers. :-)

    • Cliffy says:

      To clarify, the 2 SC Original leagues, and I'm making a debut in SC Draft this season (never played the format before).

    • Hounddog says:

      571790 and 991457

    • Marc says:

      736716 is a league with a few guys from this community would be happy if you could join cliffy :)

    • Russ says:

      Giday Cliffy, I have some leagues you're very welcome to become a part of, feel free to join up and invite your mates too if they wanna have a fun season
      923515
      487007
      716047
      598192
      887856
      821086
      You should join ten leagues mate, that's the max this year, more chances to be the king of the league :)

  26. magpie4ver says:

    Now that Lids is out? Is the Community thinking of Bringing D. Martin back in the FWD line?

  27. Derek says:

    Petracca is expected to return to match practice within two weeks.
    http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-03-20/demons-make

  28. Gibbs says:

    Thoughts on Callan ward as a pod? Also thoughts on Corey Enright and Mitch Duncan! Recon Duncan will have a big year and Enright is super consistent

    • marcus says:

      shhhhh ward is my POD
      duncans a gun not sure how danger will affect his score though

    • BKW says:

      Ward is solid but there are higher upside selections at a similar price IMO – pick him if you like him though

    • Scouser says:

      Pretty good choice I reckon Gibbs, I've gone Cripps myself but I'd be happy with Ward also just a preference really so back your gut mate.

  29. Ethan017 says:

    Rate my team fellas

    DEF- Shaw, Laird, JJ, Weitering, Dea, Hartley (Brown, K.Collins)

    MID- Fyfe, Danger, Priddis, JPK, Rocky, Libba, B.Crouch, Mills (Gore, Keays, Davis)

    RUCK- Nic Nat, Gawn (Grimley

    FOR- Barlow, Greene, Hall, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge (Mcdonald-Tipungwati, Petracca)

    • Liam says:

      Like it. Brad crouch would be my only concern

      • Ethan017 says:

        Cheers buddy
        I'd prefer to have Crouch instead of an onfield rookie and I hope that if he doesn't perform my premos can cover him

    • Scouser says:

      Looking good Ethan, prefer Hanners to JPK personally but don't have either. Nothing to fault it really although Petracca unlikely to play first few rounds at least and I'd take Adams over Brown if named.

  30. 'Don't Blush Babbie' says:

    Bennel also wont play round 1 ,confirmed on AFL Website

  31. Andrew says:

    Priddis, Pendles or Hanners?

    Thanks in advance community!

  32. Steele says:

    Like many other people I am not sure about how Dusty Martin is going to fair with the situation he is in at the moment.

    I already have Barlow and Greene in the fwd line. If I were to replace Dusty, who would everyone say is the next biggest priority to have in there?

    Let me know your suggestions.

    Thanks.

    • 'Don't Blush Babbie' says:

      I have him and now that Deledio is out I'm considering whether to put the VC on him, I know his form against Carlton is not great but I'm expecting a big game from him and his Father would be urging him on to do so.

    • Alec says:

      Wingard is a good option and not to many have him either!

  33. Sarah says:

    Hey guys, I'd love some input on a selection dilemma I'm having…

    M Boyd and Weitering
    or
    Rich and Lonergan

    What does the community think?

    • Steeeve says:

      Option one: Keeper and significant cash generator.
      Option two: Likely burn man and likely burn man.

    • Big G says:

      I'm inclined to say go with option 1 as one keeper/one stepping stone option as opposed to two mid-pricers that can be up and down.

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      Out of those options I'd go 1. But i want to look at how Boyd goes and try and bring him in as an upgrade target. I am not sold on Rich as a backline keeper, both Weitering and Lonergan should be good stepping stones, but Lonergan does have injury history.

      Sarah i think i have heard you say that you are a crows supporter, do u think that Laird will be a top 8 scoring def and keeper this year?

      • Sarah says:

        Hey Grahame, I am a massive crows fan! I like Laird a lot. He's been in and out of my backline as I try to find the right balance. Loved what he's done during the NAB games, however, I think I'll be starting without him and look to pick him up during the season… similar to what you're planning with Boyd!

        • Grahame Lebroy says:

          Thanks Sarah, i like what he has done over pre season and last year. He is priced high, nut hoping he produces the goods SC wise this year.

    • Hi Sarah
      I much prefer 1 over 2 (more guns/rookie which is my pref), but I do know a team that I respect a lot that is running scenario 2. Basically it depends on how many other keepers (inc mid priced junk) you have. If with scenario 1 you have 16 (maybe even 15) potential keepers inc Wells then do that IMO. 14 keepers, then you might value the consistency for a bit longer. That said I just don't trust myself to pick breakout players like Lonergan consistently. Thanks for the call on Gazza's dud shoulder last year. Really appreciate your input into the community.

      What are you thoughts on this combo conundrum of mine:
      1. Laird + Crouch
      2. Shaw + Oliver

      Cheers

      • Sarah says:

        Thanks randomcliche, I guess the same advice applies to your scenario as well. It's down to the total number of keepers. Personally though, I like option 1 better. Is there another way to get Shaw, Laird and Crouch?

        • Thanks Sarah. With the heater option its 15 keepers (inc 3 good quality mid pricers…ya Hall/Libba types) but it pushes out to 15+ stepping stone/over half season prolly to at least the byes with Crouch. I feel more comfortable with that as its 6 upgrades, circa 12 trades to something resembling full premo before hitting some panic trades through the second/third bye rounds.

          I could swap Barlow, Robinson or any premo mid into a Laird at D2 via swings but I just don't see him outscoring those types.

          • Sarah says:

            I wouldn't trade out Barlow, so Robinson would seem the one to go if you want to strengthen up your defence a bit. Laird probably won't outscore a Barlow or Robinson… that's not the right question. The right question to ask is will he be a top 6 defender? You need to have 6 defenders on the ground, they'll likely be outscored by most forwards, midfielders and rucks… but you still have to have them! So it's best to have the more reliable (and potentially more expensive) defenders than high risk, cheaper and unproven defenders… feel like I'm stating the obvious but I think I'll be going with a slightly stronger backline for these reasons.

            • As you rightly identified I'm running the wafer-thin defence model with two premos, as I think there is more growth in a $500k player on the other lines than in def; so its a D2, M8, R2, F4 setup for me (B.Crouch M8). It comes down to when I think I need to invest the cash on each line, which defence is lowest priority..unfortunately I will have to buy 4 premo defenders…if such a thing exists. All the best with your balanced approach, but I think at the margin the loaded mid is a better approach.

    • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

      Hi Sarah I'm going 1 hoping for Boyd to.get me off to a flyer

      • Sarah says:

        That's my thinking too… He's a good looking POD!

        • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

          I think u are the only other team i have seen who is starting boyd. To me he is proven, has a remarkable record under the roof and dogs have first 7 under the roof. Yeah he will be rested but so will every other older defender and we do have a bench.

    • Phil says:

      2nd option Sarah even though I'm not overly sold on Rich, I think Lonergan has the potential to be a top3 back. The signs are there, similar to Swallow a few years back.

    • Danners says:

      Boyd and Weitering

    • Scouser says:

      Like it's been said Sarah I'd focus on who you think the keepers are. Personally I'd run with Boyd as a great POD and you could get a jump on other wafer-thin defences.

      Also, is there any love for Atkins at the crows, tonned up in both his nab games with an impressive 161 pts per 100 min average and a nice price, looking for cover for crouch if not named rd 1, cheers.

      • Sarah says:

        I like Atkins a lot, but it's a big risk for a guy who's only played 8 games!! However he's been in the system a couple of years and as you say, he was awesome in the NAB…

        • Scouser says:

          Yeah I hear ya' not much confidence in him myself based on those exact points. I was hoping to hear they have designated a role for him, oh well will just have to keep him on the radar as he looks like he could really be something, cheers

  34. Liam says:

    Anyone know when the team's come out??

    • Tret says:

      Pretty sure its Wednesday

    • Wattsieesq says:

      Carlton and Richmond on Wednesday. I'm guessing the rest will come out Thursday as per usual even thought there is no Friday night game.

    • From memory, last year it was something like Wednesday night for Thursday night game, Thursday night for Saturday games with extended squads for Sunday/Monday games. Friday night should see confirmed lineups for Sunday/Monday games. Hopefully something similar this year (or better…all full teams named wednesday…#unliklely)

      • Scouser says:

        Spot on RC was exactly that, unfortunately I can't see it changing, would be nice if it did though.

  35. nel says:

    an all Australian and no 1 pick vs 2 hacks easy sarah

  36. BigHaydos says:

    where do we find out the ownership percentages of players? cheers fellas

  37. Steve says:

    I'm considering either Treloar or Adams ? Which do you think community ?
    Cheers

  38. REN says:

    if Leuy is fit and named round 1 is he worth a look?

  39. CamN17 says:

    RIghtio, midpricers.
    Do I go with M Crouch or B Crouch or Zaharakis or Steele?

    Current mid is Fyfe, Dangerfield, Priddis, C Ward, Rockliff, Zaharakis, Libba, Mills int: Keays, Hewitt, R Davis of Suns (Rookie).

  40. SC_Beast says:

    Green or S.Gray currently have Toby for cash reasons.

    • Geoff says:

      I think Greene is a better choice. No telling how much time Gray will spend in the middle with Gray, Wines, Boak, Ebert and so going through the guts. I think Greene is a better option as he will be most likely to excel with the departure of Treloar and should spend more midfield time. He can rack up the pill at will as well.

  41. John says:

    Podcast today or not later this week after team reveals on Wednesday?

  42. Ted says:

    Just starting a new league hoping to get in the top 100 leagues anyone feel free to join the codes 736716

  43. Vex says:

    Is it bad for me to take crouch over libba? That extra 50k gets me the team I want

    • @footy_bec says:

      Unproven to me. No one has even seen him play under Pyke and they have a hard draw.

    • Southern S says:

      Sometimes you have to go with your gut.

      Brad Crouch just got 40 touches in his match on the weekend. If he stays fit he will score well.

      Draw won't hurt his performance much, especially considering his biggest game in 2014 was 40 touches against the hawks (with dangerfield also getting 41 touches), must've been roughly 20 years old at that stage of his career.

      The only thing you should be worried about with a player with that kind of ability (and at that price) is their fitness to play multiple games.

      Coach and opponents are irrelevant.

  44. REN says:

    Asked this above but didnt include the positions which I think effect the decision made

    Should I take:

    Laird (d1), Smith (d2), Hurn (d3), Harwood (d4)

    or

    Shaw (d1), Hurn/Smith (d2), Harwood (d3), Weitering (d4)

  45. miri says:

    Please rate my team…. all comments are welcome

    Def- Shaw , Laird , Sheridan , Aish , Weitering , Dea
    (Hartley, Collins)

    Mid- Fyffe , Dangerfield , Pendlebury , Ablett , Priddis , Liberatore , Mills , Oliver ( Gore , Dunkley , Davis)

    Ruck- Goldy , Gawn ( Grimley )
    Fow- Barlow , Gray , Wells , Kennedy , Menadue , Kerridge
    ( Adams , Brown)

    • Derek says:

      you have gone with some heavy hitters in the midfield. couldn't find a spot for Rocky? he is really good value.

    • CoachDamo says:

      Defence looks good – although I'm not sure you'll get much from Aish, I'd look elsewhere.

      Your other lines are really solid. There are some slight variations (Rocky, Martin, Crouch, Hall) to others but generally looks like a popular side.

    • Love the Priddis POD. Not sure about the Aish pick though! Big nuts

  46. Ethan says:

    Need some help, defence is still bugging me

    Def-Shaw, Laird, JJ, Weitering, Dea, Broad (Adams, Brown)

    Mid-Fyfe, Pendles, Priddis, Gray, Rocky, Libba, Mills, Oliver (Menadue, Clarke, Davis)

    Ruc- Nic Nat, Gawn (Loersch)

    For-Wingard, Barlow, Hall, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge (Grimley, Mcdonald Tip….)

  47. Baggy Pants says:

    Does anyone know when your team needs to be finally locked in? Can we still make changes to our sides after the Richmond Carlton game? Or is it like a normal rolling lockout where changes can't be reversed once the round has started.
    Can't remember what happened last year.

    Thanks in advance, and all the best to everyone for the year ahead.

  48. Siri says:

    Rate my team please…

    DEF- Shaw, Laird, JJ, T Mckenzie, Weitering, Dea ( Hartley, Brown)

    MIDS – Fyfe, Danger, Pendles, Priddis, Liba, B.Crouch, Mills, Oliver (Gore, Macpherson, Davis)

    RUC – Goldy, Gawn (Loersch)

    FWD – Barlow, Hall, De goey, Wells, Kerridge, Mccarthy ( Mcdonald, Grimly)

    207 K left

  49. Grahame Lebroy says:

    Only Tigers and Blues players you want need to be locked in on thursday. U should be able to select all the players from the other clubs on the Friday still

  50. Alec says:

    What is everyone's thoughts on Corey Enright? If he was to play every game, is he worth looking at as a POD?

  51. One Touch Wonder says:

    DEF: Shaw. Laird. Bartel. Rich. Dea. Hartley. (Collins. McDonald-Tip)

    MID: Fyfe. Ablett. Selwood. Rocky. Libba. Mills. Oliver. Gresham. (Petracca. Davis. Gore)

    RUC: Goldstein. Naitanui. (Chol)

    FWD: Martin. Wingard. Barlow. Wells. kennedy. Kerridge. (Kommer. Brown)

    $7,500 in the bank.

    Going with a Guns n rookie team.

    • 'Don't Blush Babbie' says:

      Ballys having Mills and Oliver, could be a winner though, good luck

    • fatboyfat7 says:

      I'm not the biggest fan of the Kommer pick. I'd prefer Grimley so you can use him as ruck cover if need be by swinging him with Chol. Neither Chol or Grimely will score very big so probably not much difference between cash generation, just offers a little more cover in case one of the ruck boys goes down. Nice team otherwise.

    • Southern S says:

      I see potentially 6 of your picks not playing round one.

  52. Winter says:

    Thoughts on Weitering as D3 but in return allows Wells to be F5? Allows me to fit in both Greene and Hall as I can't decide between the 2. Basically its allowing me to swap a premium defender most likely Bartel into a premium forward using Mitch Brown as the DPP.

  53. Tom says:

    Can anyone tell me what the little green 'pieces of paper' next to some players names indicate?

    • Big G says:

      Hover over them a they should tell you a bit of useless information (e.g. You should really consider Gary Ablett). Once the season starts, they give an update on how they player is tracking SC-wise and throw in a joke or two.

    • SCaddict says:

      Just a fun fact or other notation that the Supercoach boys think may be of interest to coaches.

      If at a PC just hover the mouse over it to discover the pearl of wisdom, fortune cookie style!

    • Southern S says:

      Hover your mouse pointer over the green paper for a bit of advice about the player.

  54. Mark says:

    thoughts on sammy mitchell this year, his nab form has been sublime but tooth length is a worry. I don't believe he will be rested too much as he needs 15 games to reach 300 and I reckon hell play the majority of the season. would love your opinions community.

    • Russ says:

      Hi Mark, I don't think tooth length is an issue with Sam Mitchell, he's still as gunny as he ever was, and still as keen to play and do well.

  55. Marc says:

    Hey boys, Looking to fill up an SC league. Looking for some strong and competitive players to make this one hell of a league! (hoping to crack the top 100
    Code:736716

  56. 'Don't Blush Babbie' says:

    Ivan Maric is also in doubt for Thursday night, don't think many people have him in their teams though

  57. Geoff says:

    Weitering or Dea

    • Chill says:

      Dea. Cheaper so better value.

    • SC God says:

      Weitering, will score more and make more cash

    • Gord29 says:

      Weltering I'm not convinced on the top up players from the bombers yet have read reports they will focus on there youth and players they can keep

    • Sarah says:

      Weitering – he's a lock in Carlton's best 22. Dea isn't for essendon

    • SCaddict says:

      If Dea is named he will find a spot in my side as ultimately I see him as the superior cash generator.

      I think Weitering has been way overhyped for what he is. An 18 year old KPP in an awful team is unlikely to be the best fantasy producer once the real stuff starts and will turn out to be somewhat of a disappointing cash cow I feel.

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      Both. Both r in best 22

  58. Gro says:

    Have 1.05m to spend on my remaining two mids, rest of my midfield is as follows: Fyfe, Danger,Priddis, Rocky, Libba, Mills and bench rookies. Currently I have Wines and Cripps occupying those two remaining midfield positions, but I was toying with getting Pendlebury in which would mean selecting a Crouch bro or nick graham as my other one. I kinda prefer wines and Cripps as I reckon the Crouch brothers will take points away from each other. I could also go Sloane and S Gray, or an on other combo. Thoughts?

    • Dean says:

      If you cannot afford Wines & Parker, then go with Pendles & B Crouch if he is named.

      I'm not sold on Cripps, way over priced for mine.

    • Randomclcihe says:

      I like to parker the car, have some wines, then crisps and I wouldn't have it any other way.

  59. Russ says:

    Very interesting write up Mr Higgo, so did you reset your Team because it was already Cookiecutterish or was it too much from left field with a lot of hope and speculation caused by the media hype and Nab Challenge player's scores? I'm interested to know, I reset my team yesterday too, in other words, deleted the whole thing and started again because I felt I had too many (I hope they'll do well this season) types in there.

    I reckon the main aim of Supercoach is to have, keep and aquire players who will deliver reliable scores for the majority of the season, hence I swayed back to a more conservative, trust the guys who have delivered in the past philosophy.

    That being typed, I could be completely wrong and the guys who go for all the risky, "break out prospects" and "go to another level" guys, could dominate this season, I also think there's a lot of luck involved in the whole thing. :)

  60. Dean says:

    I have gone back to my original structure by going weak in defence and super strong in the Midfield & Ruck and also quite strong in the forward line.
    Every year we all keep saying that the defence is the most volatile and we know this is the case because every season our premium defenders other then Shaw ALWAYS do ordinary at best.
    However each time it comes to the crunch most of us change our minds and change our teams in order to make our defence stronger by the time the season proper is about to start. – I'm the first to admit I changed my structure several times however after serious deliberation I decided NOT me, NOT again.

    So here is my team community, feel free to give any feedback good or bad.

    DEF: Rance, Rich, Howe, Dea, Hartley, Adams (Collins, Ruggles)
    MID: Fyfe, Danger, Pendles, GAJ, Priddis, Rockliff, Mills, Kerridge (Gresham, Hewett, Davis)
    RUCK: Goldy, Martin (Wyatt)
    FWD: Wingard, Gunston, Barlow, Wells, McCarthy, M Brown (Grimley, AMT)

    • Russ says:

      Giday Dean, you've made it quite clear you're not changing anything from here, so I don't know if you want to hear what my opinion is or not but anyway here goes.
      I don't think it's necessary to have Martin and Goldy this year, it's a lot of cash used up, if you kept Martin, you could trade Howe and Rich out for two more reliable scorers coupled with the considerations of trading Wingard and Gunston out for cheaper options, Greene, Hall as an example.
      Gawn would be a good replacement for Goldy and save mucho cash, Rance scored an average of 97 last year as his highest average, before that, it was 88 I think, I think Rance is a good option, but think your other backline options might not score you too well, or they will, maybe.
      I think we all need to eliminate the Maybes as much as possible this year.

  61. Falcon says:

    What are thought on dusty martin
    Think he'll be alright to start with or will flop?
    Biggest issues i have atm
    Cant affort to go up but any suggestions on another fwd thatll be top 10 would be great

    • Gord29 says:

      he's a keeper but there is the risk he might drop a fair bit. Could come out with some huge scores also

      • Falcon says:

        Yeah i know thats why i hard
        He may come out a pump out massive scores
        But his nab form doesnt suggest thatll happen

    • CoachDamo says:

      I'm starting without him. I expect his price is more likely to come down to $500 000 rather than go up over $600 000 so he might be an upgrade at some stage during the year.

    • Dean says:

      Not keen on Martin this year, I believe Gunston will score just as good as him as he is super consistent and I really like Wingard also this year, he proved it last season and is entering his prime years as a player now.

      • Falcon says:

        From whats been coming from port
        Wingard will be staying up forward not getting much mid time
        And gunston will have the number 1 defender everyweek till roughy comes back
        But i did look at gunston

    • Sarah says:

      Dahlhaus – similar priced, should average 100+ again

  62. james says:

    been stuck on this thought for a while community who do i go in the ruck sauce or big mummy

  63. Geoff says:

    Simpson, KK or Gibo at D2. Laird D1.

  64. Mac says:

    Is it worth having Grimley at r3? Don't have a ruck rookie in the fwd line. My question is, is it better to use the cash elsewhere if I use wyatt/chol?

  65. Ethan017 says:

    anyone know how to get the player ownership percentage, do you need supercoach gold?

  66. Chris says:

    need youre help community…
    Pick the best trio please.

    Heath Shaw
    Nat Fyfe
    Brad Crouch

    Houli
    Pendlebury
    Matt Crouch

    Houli
    Fyfe
    Matt Crouch

    Cheers

    • Southern S says:

      1 = Highest scoring but includes highest injury risk and loss of value if they don't perform. Reward could be high though with all 3 guys capable of large scores.

      2 = Pendlebury and Houli are at prices where you can't really see them dropping by much value. Matt Crouch is 100% fit and firing to take the inside mid spot left by Danger.

      Costs a little more than his brother though and debatable whether he can match brad's scoring potential.

      Lower risk. Maybe lower reward week in week out.

      3 = Similar to above option. Is Fyfe worth the extra over Pendlebury?

      When you break it down, hard to ignore option one.

    • Phil says:

      Definitely option1

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      1

    • murray says:

      no.1

  67. Danners says:

    Great stuff Higgo! The magazine from last year still has many tips that I go back to. I can see people following the bandwagon with people like Hannebery, Weitering, etc. without knowing why they have picked them and having no idea how they will go

  68. Rob says:

    Hey community i have 100K in the bank and I am wondering what i should do with it

    BACK: Houli, KK, Johannisen, Weitering, Dea, Bonner ( Hartley, Ruggles)

    MID: Fyfe, Danger, Priddis, Rockliff, Cripps, Libba, Mills, Gresham ( Gore, Petracca, MacPherson)

    RUCK: Gawn, Smith ( Grimley)

    FWD: Dahlhaus, Barlow, Franklin, Hall, Wells, Kerridge ( Brown, Galluci)
    .

    • Russ says:

      Hang onto it, if you're happy with your team, could come in handy.

    • Southern S says:

      Bonner on field seems odd. Can't see him breaking into the team. Didn't even play a NAB game………..

      Gore doubtful for round one, never know though.

      Petracca playing seems to be up in the air at the moment after the toe injury. he is training again afaik.

      Not convinced Galluci is ready.

      100K could upgrade zac smith? or maybe petracca/gore/mcpherson if you want to take the punt on oliver for 200k?

      I'm not sure how long he'll hold his spot with petracca and brayshaw coming back though. (If he even has a spot right now.

      If you're happy with your picks at the moment save the 100k and tweak team on round one announcement.

  69. Russ says:

    Hi again ladies and gents, still a few spots left in our Leagues, join away and invite friends to get em filled up….
    Supercoach…

    923515
    487007
    760246

  70. 'Don't Blush Babbie' says:

    Petracca- looks like he may not play Round 1, Is it a good move to have him now and save a trade by bringing him in later ? Just seems to be a lack of quality Rookies

    • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

      I'm not starting him but intend to trade him in for a fat rookie around rd 7 dpp is a bonus.

    • Southern S says:

      I don't think you can afford a zero on the bench at the start of the season, especially if you don't know exactly when he returns.

  71. Southern S says:

    Not including Mills what rookie would have the best job security?

    Gresham?

    • Tret says:

      Oliver and Parish. Gresham doesnt look like having great JS but hopefully he plays. Looks a gun.

      The lack of mid rookies this year is shite

      • Southern S says:

        Really think they will play an 18 year old all year? he only played one NAB game which I find odd.

        The problem with paying 200k is that if they miss games you have an expensive asset sitting on the bench. Plus they need to score well to profit.

        Not convinced oliver and parish will do that. Might just fill my mid bench with menadue/kennedy and use one low priced rookie like davis or at most gresham.

  72. Gareth says:

    Thank I'm happy with my team now:

    Def: shaw,JJ,Seedsman,weitering,dea,Hartley
    Bench. Brown,ruggles

    Mid: Fyfe,danger,Ablett,rocky,Shiel,libba,mills,menadue
    Bench: Davis,keays,Joyce

    Ruck: goldy,natnuni
    Bench: cox

    Fwd: Montagna,Batlow,hall,Steele,wells,kerridge
    Bench: chol,McDonald-tipu

    Be blunt if you wish…..

  73. Steve says:

    Hi Community thoughts on these two team guys! Not sure which where to go

    Def, Shaw, R.laird, JJ, Tommy S, J.weitering, Hartley : Ruggles, AMT
    Mid: Fyfe, Danger, Pend, parker, Duncan, liber, Mills and Kennedy : J.Gresham, Keys and Davis
    Rucks: M.gawn. Nic Nat and Cox
    Forwards: Barlow, Greene, Hall, wells, Menadue, kerride : S. Grimley and Adams

    Def, Houli R.laird, R.rich , Tommy S, J.weitering, Hartley : Ruggles, AMT
    Mid: Fyfe, Danger, Pend, parker, Duncan, liber, Mills and Kennedy : J.Gresham, Keys and Davis
    Rucks: M.gawn, T goldy and Cox
    Forwards: Barlow, buddy, Hall, wells, Menadue, kerride : S. Grimley and Adams

  74. medadsson says:

    Masterful insight from Higgo. I guess when you are odd the odds are with you. Few spots left 229043 if anyone interested. Hopefully Higgo's advice will be heeded so we don't have clone wars :)

  75. Hey guys, after multiple changes this is what I'm starting to settle on. Get stuck in and give me your thoughts, biggest toss up is going with Simmo down back v Rampe as a decent POD. I've gone with Simpson but still keen on Rampe. Here it is:

    B: LAIRD, MCGOVERN, SIMPSON, WEITERING, DEA, HARTLEY (COLLINS, BROAD)
    M: DANGER, ABLETT, GRAY, SHIEL, ROCKY, LIBBA, MILLS, KENNEDY (CLARKE, GRESHAM, DAVIS)
    R: GOLDY, GAWN (COX)
    F: DUSTY, BARLOW, HALL, WELLS, MENADUE, KERRIDGE (GRIMLEY, ADAMS)

  76. Blueth says:

    whats all this about Harwood, why no love for Tom Cutler?

  77. Burndog says:

    G'day fellas! I've never put my team up here before, but figured I'd chuck it on the wall and see if you blokes had any pearls of wisdom for me…

    B: Rance, Laird, McGovern, McKenzie, Weitering, Dea (Brown, Hartley)
    M: Fyfe, Dangerman, Pliddis, Rockliff, Cripps, Libba, Mills, Kennedy (Kerridge, Gore, Davis)
    R: Nic Nat, Gawn (Grimley)
    F: Barlow, S Gray, Hall, Wells, Milera, Menadue (McCarthy, McDonald-Tip)

    I'm reasonably happy with my backs and mids (am also aware that I'm a pube away from disaster as well…but I've tried to rely on just the one true mid-pricer in each line. I worry a little about having Dea, Brown AND Hartley…but I can always chop one or two out when the sides are out. Had a big decision in choosing between Rance, Laird, Rampe and Simpson…any advice on that front would be welcome as well.

    Rucks look good…predicting a big one for Nic Nat.

    The forwards are a bit rough…I'm not married to the line-up there…need Gray AND Hall to shake the cobwebs…which is a big ask. Still…I'm pretty happy with the caliber of rookies I've managed to snag, and hope they all get a game.

    Only $9,200 in the bank.

    Thanks Community,

    Burndog.

    • Holty says:

      hope you are planning on starting Kerridge on field? apart from that, looks like a solid team. The forward line is where you will make the money early on so i wouldnt worry about the forward line at present. as long as you have the right players selected to make you money.

      • burndog says:

        Yeah Holty…I haven't really given the rooks a heap of thought. I'll wait until teams are named. I was thinking of putting Kerridge on the bench and if he has a blinder I'd start Petracca or some other rookie that was a few weeks away from getting involved. Otherwise I'd just leave him on the bench and roll the dice.

    • I like it mate. Particularly the backline. I went with Laird, Simpson and Mcgovern but also tossing up between Rampe!

    • Russ says:

      Giday Burnman, comparisons between Simpson and Rance are quite different, Simpson has averaged around 95 since 2009, Rance have averaged mid to high 80's from 2011 to 2014, 2015 was the first year he increased his average to 97, can he maintain a 90's average?, I reckon Kade is more reliable, although a bit toothlong…and in a lowly Team, but that hasn't stopped him.

      • burndog says:

        Cheers Russ! I'm a bit down on the Blues overall…and worried about having two blue bagger defenders. I might throw Bartel in the mix. Worried about him missing some games, but he's a gun.

    • rosy says:

      One of the better starting lineups I've seen so far. Good luck.

  78. Loop says:

    Thoughts on Brayshaw? I was looking forward to seeing how he went in the NAB challenge and he lasted 2 seconds.

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      I don't like the idea of starting with him this year. There r better options that are cheaper

  79. Grahame Lebroy says:

    Does anyone think the elite top 10 mids will change much this year? If so who do u think will slide in or out?

    2015 Top 10 Total Point Scoring Mids;

    S.Pendlebury 2557 pts
    D.Hannebery 2519
    P.Dangerfield 2518
    M.Priddis 2492
    J.Kennedy 2425
    D.Mundy 2384
    C.Ward 2340
    D.Martin 2321
    R.Gray 2319
    D.Armitage 2303

    I feel this could change alot this year. Of Note, D.Martin who alot of people are dismissing now due to his fathers problems finished the 8th best total point scoring mid last year. Dahlhaus finished as the 11th best. Both available in Fwd line as was the case last year.

    • GoHawks says:

      Cant see it changing too much.

      Maybe expect Parker and possibly Rockliff to make the top 10, at the expense of Dusty & Mundy. Ablett if fit will be top 10 (but if fit is the key, I dont think he will play enough games).

      Pendles may finish 4th-6th in total points if his role is changed.

      • Southern S says:

        Pendles role hasn't changed. He's always been majority midfield and floats around the ground because he can win the ball in defence or forward and kick goals.

        Pendlebury expects to play 80% midfield with stints in the half forward and half back. Multiple reports of this from an interview with Pendle.

        All players will be doing such things with the lower rotation cap. Can't see it hurting pendles score he may even surprise and increase it.

    • burndog says:

      I can see J Selwood getting back in there if Danger taking the main tag frees him up a bit. I feel like last year was a blip for him but if he can get the body right this season he should bounce back.

      If.

  80. Sarah says:

    Hey guys,

    So here it is… draft 349056725… I'm not even kidding!

    Def: Shaw, Boyd, Houli, Lonergan, Harwood, Hartley (McD-T, Ruggles)

    Mids: Danger, Ablett, R Gray, Rockliff, Cripps, B Crouch, Mills, Gresham (Gore, Hewett, Davis)

    Rucks: Goldy, NicNat (Currie)

    Fwds: Barlow, Hall, Wells, B Kennedy, Milera, Kerridge (Menadue, McCarthy)

    $24k left in the bank.

    I've loaded up the defence, midfield and rucks and gone light on in the forward line as this seems to be where there are the most rookie options. The more I looked at the rookies in my defence, the more worried I got regarding their consistency and scoring output. Yes Weitering scored a 99 during the NAB but it was against ESSENDON!! The next game was against Sydney, and yes he did some nice things but he only scored 64. Is that going to be his usual output? He is a first year player, albiet a very good one, but still a first year player, so can we expect that 80 average we'd need to get some decent cash generation out of him? If he only averages 64 he'll only make ~$120k. In my book that's not enough scoring or money to make him a must have in my team. With this set up in defence I'm hoping I won't need to upgrade there for a while and can concentrate on the forward line and midfield.

    All comments welcome.

    • Derek says:

      Why Crouch over Libba. Is that just your heart, save $50k or other reason?

      • Sarah says:

        A bit of everything really… heart, POD (from Libba), potential, players returning from ACLs generally take a full year to get back their full mobility etc, gut feeling, dogs reduced reliance on Libba, save $50k… so a few things, but mostly I think it's the gut feel that I don't think Libba will be the player we'd be expecting him to be this year. I don't think he'll be a keeper and as a midpricer he won't make much money. Therefore I'd prefer to go Crouch, who has scope to make more money than Libba, is needed more in the crows engine room than Libba is in the dogs engine room, and if traded will be my last upgrade trade.
        Many will disagree with me, but this is why I've gone Crouch over Libba.

        • Derek says:

          Interesting……….. When SuperCoach first opened I put Libba in my team and he hasn't moved. Makes me just have a tiny doubt. Thanks sarah

          • Sarah says:

            I had him in at the start too, along with Yeo and B Smith… things change!

            • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

              Same. now I have none. posted after libbas last game that he looked slow and don't think he will suit the dogs gun and run style. Someone who does is his teammate hunter who has found his way into my team in his place.

        • Southern S says:

          Agree 100% with the reasons. If Libba gets a couple of 100+'s in round one and two can always do a corrective trade to get him won't be the end of the world.

    • kevwal says:

      Hi Sarah. I have no Weitering either, same logic. I do not have Mills either, same logic. I currently have a near as damn it guns/rookies. 3-6(includes Rocky)-2-3(includes Wells) keepers=14. Liberatore(will be B crouch if picked rd1) and 15 rookies. I've never been able to get close to a pure guns/rookies before and it looks good. As per usual, defence rookies will be my undoing. Good luck for the season.

      • Sarah says:

        Thanks for the comment kevwal. I've gone Mills as mid rookies are pretty light on this year and he looks locked into the swans team. At least he isn't a KPP like Weitering! Set up looks good, it's all down to team selection now… fingers crossed and good luck for this year to you too.

    • Loop says:

      Weitering isnt in my team for the same reasons. I decided to take a punt on B Crouch instead of Libba because I think that the Doggies have a lot of players now who are capable of high scores. I could be wrong but I dont care.

    • Holty says:

      Why Harwood Sarah? Never played more then 16 games in a season.

      • Sarah says:

        Hi Holty, I don't see Harwood as a keeper. I see him as a player who will score more consistently than Weitering and hold down that spot til mid season, providing my backline with more stability than if I put another rookie in that position.

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      Really like that you have backed in Shaw, Boyd and Houli to be 3 keepers in your Def. Your Prepared to pay the price early for solid points there. But i do feel you have gone too deep in Def and too light in the Fwd line. Mind you it could prove to be a masterstroke POD team structure considering all the teams that we have seen to are very light in Def. Personally i would downgrade Harwood to a Dea type and use the cash in the fwd line. One of your crow boys in Lyons could be a great stepping stone POD in your Fwd line, and by using him you could take a little risk out of the Fwd line with all the rookies you have there. Just my thoughts, could be wrong.
      Mids and Rucks look solid.

      • Sarah says:

        You know what Grahame, that is an excellent suggestion!! I'm looking closer at Lyons as we speak. Can't believe I hadn't looked at him sooner! Thanks and good luck for the season!!

    • abel says:

      Great side S. Love the Lonergan pick. I had my eye on Cutler over Harwood. Thoughts?

      • Sarah says:

        Cheers Abel. Cutler did look good in the NAB and has great potential. I guess it comes done to gut feel if you think he’s going to breakout? His stats from both NAB games were impressive.

      • One Touch Wonder says:

        I've had Cutler in and out of my team. I have rich in there at the moment so didn't want to many Brisbane boys. lions don't have the easiest first half of the draw, so the ball will be down back a bit and if he is any good should get it a few times. but i probably won't pick him.

        • Southern S says:

          I'd take Cutler for 290k over Rich for 425k in a heartbeat.

          Rich is at his typical scoring price and Cutler is an up and coming young player who could breakout this year.

          Rich and keeper don't belong int he same sentence, so may as well risk the one with larger profit potential.

          Cutler currently at D4 for me.

    • TRIGGER HAPPY says:

      good looking team well thought out. we are all gonna be stuffed if ruggles and davis don't get upgrades. as I too have both on the bench and $20k in the kitty. not enough to upgrade both to a $117k rook. so will have to do the rejig dance.

      I'm the opposite taking a punt and going light in defence only expecting 70's from weithering which I think he can manage. all my focus has been in my midfield which will not change barring injury until the byes.

      what happened to ward? thought you were big on him?

      • Sarah says:

        Haha, I've been keen on a lot of them over the preseason.. Parker was a lock until a week ago as well!! I guess the main change to my thinking has been the unreliability of the $400k defenders that dominated my early teams with rookies. Now I'm planning to go stronger there as you can see, so someone had to give in the midfield and it was the position previously held by Ward, and Parker turned into Cripps. So the money from Ward was used to upgrade to Houli and Boyd, who I much prefer seeing them in my backline than an extra rookie. I still like Ward and Parker and will be watching them closely during the season as upgrade targets.

    • Shake n bake says:

      Was goin to say pretty much the same thing if McD Ruggles Davis don't get up might struggle to regig but I'm sure you have a second option. P. S I'm sure you were all over Shiel have you gone cold or was Cripps to good to give up? Is it to save coin?

      • Sarah says:

        Hi Shake n bake!
        If that happens my plan is to cut Kennedy and use his cash to get slightly more expensive rookies. Hopefully they play though! I was all over Ward a couple of weeks ago. I don't think you can go wrong with Shiel or Ward, but I've decided to take a risk on Cripps… and yes it's a risk! I dont see the forward line as that big a risk as that just happens to be where the rookies are this year. Usually it's in the midfield but we don't seem to have many… well, that aren't below $200k! I've got astrong backline, midfield and rucks, and I'm happy with my lighter forward line. Kerridge and Wells, while cheap, should score well so it's not as weak as it might look at first glance. So to help give my team an edge I'm picking Cripps for a further breakout third year!! Fingers crossed!!!

        • Shake n bake says:

          I went Cripps as well. it is risk, he's 1st year was a right off but yes in he's 3rd year and hoping there is a lot of upside at he's price. Like u said fingers crossed! On Ward signed up till 2021 in a happy place only could be good!

    • The Ranger says:

      Looks good Sarah, risky forward line but they should all at least make money rather than lose it.
      i completely agree on Weitering, first year defensive KPP's are generally not the way to go.
      I'm sticking with Libba tho, NAB is just NAB I think he'll be just fine when the real stuff starts.
      I'm still really tempted by Hall but I'd have to lose Barlow to make it happen…whats ya thoughts on that one?

      • Sarah says:

        Hi Ranger!
        As you can see I like Hall too. He's been locked in my team for many weeks now and he isn't going anywhere unless he injures himself before round 1. I wouldn't get rid of Barlow to get him though. Barlow is a bigger lock… but only just IMO!!
        Even though I've gone light in the forward line to start with, I still think it'll score reasonably well with Wells and Kerridge in there. Kennedy has looked good in the preseason and I'm expecting him to score well enough to be on the field. You need to go light somewhere though and without many midfield rookies, it's the forward line for me. This way I'll be able to assess the premos and trade them in throughout the season as there aren't too many jumping out at me at the moment.

      • Sarah says:

        I'd need to know who else is in your forward line to give better advice…

        • The Ranger says:

          Current fwd line is…
          Dusty, Dahlhaus, Barlow, Wells, Kerridge, McCarthy
          I'm likely to stick with Barlow but I do like the look of Hall, he had a fantastic end to last year and looks to be carrying that form on even it was only in NAB.

          • Sarah says:

            This is just my opinion, but if you really like Hall, I'd cut Dahlhaus. Hunter is on the up, Libba is back, I think he's at his peak price and could be picked up during the season for a lot cheaper. I prefer to start with value selections where possible (and yes, I am aware that I'm not following that advice in my backline!!)

            • The Ranger says:

              I had considered it but Dahlhaus has runs on the board ya know?
              I want my keepers to be (barring injury) definite keepers and I can safely put Dahlhaus in that class I think.
              Even if he does get a little less mid time this year he'll still be there or thereabouts come season end.
              Barlow might not be if he goes forward again and Hall hasn't been doing it long enough yet.
              Youi're right to point out the value that Hall offers…decisions, decisions…

              • Sarah says:

                I don't know, I'm a bit unsure about Dahlhaus at his price… he's only averaged over 100 once which was last year. But, you gotta go with your gut first and foremost in this game!

  81. Big balls says:

    Aaron Mullet $199,000 defence & 86 in nab 2 .

    Thoughts ?

  82. Ethan017 says:

    Robbie Gray or JPK??

  83. Doc says:

    Need a D3 to round out my side.

    Which out of Hurn, j.Lonergan + 50k, Sheridan + 50k.

    Consider them all stepping stones.

  84. Doc says:

    thx. That's who I have gone with at the moment.

    Just worried I'm a bit skinny with laird (d1) and Rampe (d2) and hence considering hurn. Saving the extra $ with Lonergan is sure attractive.

  85. Jock Fanboy says:

    Thoughts boys
    Def, Brodie Smith, Lumumba, Malceski, Yeo, Vojo Rainbbow, Whitecross
    Mid, MArtin, Dahlhouse, Simpkin, Aish, Montagna, Omeara, Swallow
    Ruck, Lobbe, Leunburger
    Forward, Anderson, Boyd, VAnderburg, howe,witts
    Plenty Left
    THoughts

  86. Ethan017 says:

    Rate my team
    KK, Yeo, Pittard, Dea, Vojo-Rainbow, Brown (Hibberd, N.Newman)

    Mid- Fyfe, Martin, Rockliff, Cripps, Libba, O'Meara, B.Crouch, Wells (Kerridge, Jansen, Petracca)

    Ruck- Sinclair, Lobbe (Cox)

    Forward- Zorko, Wingard, Gunston, Barlow, J.Kennedy, Kerridge (Simpkin, Kommer)

    Expect to score around 2000 week in week out

    • Clem says:

      could really improve the whole team mate,
      lets just here what jock has to say

      • Ethan017 says:

        I think these players could take their game to the next level this year

        • clem says:

          could really improve the whole team mate,

        • Southern S says:

          Especially the two kerridge's one in the forward line one in the mid. That's a great tactic why didn't I think of cloning.

          O'meara will go to the next level on whatever video game he's playing at the moment I guarantee that. won't be in AFL for a while though.

  87. Jock Fanboy says:

    Thoughts boys
    UPDATED
    Expecting to score 1850+ this Round
    Def, Brodie Smith, Lumumba, Malceski, Yeo, Vojo Rainbow, Whitecross

    Mid, Martin, Dahlhouse, Simpkin, Aish, Montagna, Omeara, Swallow

    Ruck, Lobbe, Leunburger

    Forward, Anderson, Boyd, Vanderburg, Howe,Witts, Petracca, Kennedy

    Subs are yet to be Decided, Please honest comments please

  88. rosy says:

    Not one game has been played yet this 2016 season. There is literally no relevant statistical data to hang our hats on. The NAB cup may be good indicator for rookies but for established players, it's largely irrelevant. Therefore, I find it amazing that such HUGE calls are being made without any hard evidence. I've seen many starting teams that contain too many gambles. Basically, players are consigning themselves into a position whereby to achieve success, a series of statistical anomalies must take place. I'm not saying these anomalies WON'T happen, I'm saying they PROBABLY WON'T happen. In poker terms – it's like going all-in pre flop.

    We all know the main theories: GAJ will suffer a diminished output, Goldy's price will drop significantly, Heater Shaw isn't worth the price tag, Dusty's potential will be affected by his father's issues etc. To all of this I say bollocks. It may happen…but it probably won't. Overwhelming wisdom says, serious teams will be finishing the year with all of these guys. You may scrimp and save a dollar or two here and there but in the end, you'll WASTE trades getting them back in your team during the season proper and these trades should be reserved for cycling through bubbling rookies and building a warchest for the finals. You will most likely put yourself behind the pack and ironically LOSE cash generating ability.

    I think a far more solid strategy is to start the season without making too many waves. Keep things simple and don't commit yourself to a hardcore trading strategy that relies on too many gambles. Keep your team agile enough to make the necessary adjustments when needed. WHEN NEEDED…not before a single ball has even been bounced. If you want to take a gamble to 'get ahead' of the pack, do it during the season when we have some data under our belts.

    Welcome.

    • nel says:

      your team rosy

      • Itchy balls says:

        Yes Rosy whats your side looking like?

      • rosy says:

        Team is still in flux but I definitely have those four players I talked about. They'll have to PROVE through poor scroing that they aren't worth it.

        Abel is right – we have to take 'some' risks but I think I have limited them. They are:
        1 – No Pendlebury for the first time in forever. I'd like to see how he works with Treloar, De Goey etc
        2 – Daniel Wells at F4. Even though many teams will have him, I'm not 100% about his ability to stay on the park.
        3 – B. Crouch at M6 (pending round 1 selection). Have a gut feeling he'll finish the year upwards of $500k. Good stepping stone.
        3.5 – A.Hall at F3. Not looking like much of a gamble with all of the GC mid injuries. Half a gamble.

    • abel says:

      I agree…but price forces risk picking somewhere

  89. Big G says:

    McCarthy, Menadue or Gresham for F6/M8?

  90. Shake n bake says:

    ok I think I have finally finished my sc puzzle only issue I have is who to pick Shiel Wines or Cripps??????? l have narrowed it down to those 3 only.

  91. Blueth says:

    Jarryd Lyons? 241K, DPP. Heavily used as a sub last year, averaged 115 points per 100mins in NAB.

    • Grahame Lebroy says:

      Yes Blueth he is currently sitting at F5 in my side as it stands. Very much an overlooked player, think he will be a great stepping stone this year

    • abel says:

      Is he on the best 22? if so i like it

    • Redgumwon says:

      Where did Lyons spend most of his time playing in the NAB? I'm now thinking of taking out Oliver and putting Lyons into my midfield or forward line. I just can't for the life of me remember much about his games in the NAB. I know he was the bub plenty of times last year in the season proper

      • Sarah says:

        Midfield

        • Redgumwon says:

          Thanks Sarah. By the sounds of it he's missed out on a lot of the hype that the Crouch boys and a couple of others have received. Seems that Lyon maybe a little down in the pecking order? I guess we'll have to wait until Saturday for teams to see the final teams. Pity Melbourne play before Adelaide.

      • Blueth says:

        the only doubt for me on him is the crows super tough R1-R12

  92. matt says:

    I would really like some thoughts on the Melbourne game plan do we think they will continue with the attacking game plan of the NAB cup or go back to the two taggers used each week being viney/vince/bugg/other tagging in the season proper. do you think we still need to worry about gun players we pick coming up against melbourne and being tagged out of the game like last year.

  93. Andy says:

    G'day Community,

    I've left this a bit late but I have just started a league – 615738

    I have been top 1% and 2% the past two years so looking for some competitive competition!

    All the best for the year.

  94. GoHawks says:

    Who's up for the ultimate challenge in AFL fantasy football.

    Think you know your stuff, then join this Supercoach Draft league – 702156

    16 teams, 22 players per team, equals a deep-deep league where you will need to know not just the top 30-50 players, but 352 players.
    Not playing through the bye rounds (hate the bye rounds), play each team once + finals.

    No cost, just bring your A game. Drafts Wednesday 7pm

  95. Nathan says:

    Thiughts on mitch robinson as f2?
    Will he make top 10?

    • Redgumwon says:

      I really liked what I saw in the NAB games. I think with the injuries to key on ballers and all the young kids in the line up. Leppa will be calling on his hard nuts like Robbo to play in the middle more. Looks like he will continue on like he finished last year. A great POD as well. I've traded out Dusty for Robbo at this stage

  96. Mac says:

    De Goey or Greene at F3?

  97. Nathan says:

    I think greene

  98. abel says:

    I weighed this up and emded up picking steel.

  99. Chris says:

    How much cash should we be left with going into round 1?

    • Southern S says:

      I don't worry about cash at all, until I have all my players in. They must all have good reasons for being picked.

      Then I'll use any leftover cash to eliminate who I think are the biggest risks. I wouldn't worry if you have a bit of cash leftover going into round one if you are confident in your squad, you can always use it to upgrade a failed mid pricer etc.

      That saying don't go into round one with 2 mill in the bank it's sure to backfire as every rookie and mid pricer will not pay off!

      • Chris says:

        thanks heaps mate, im actually on the other end of the scale and have made a solid team but only have $100 left is this too little

        • Southern S says:

          That's fine. In theory the more on the park the better.

          • +1 Southern S…. Players are priced based on the points they can score, more $ on field the better. Don't need to save it as you can bring cash on to field by trading out cash cows, getting more $ on field scoring more points. That's how this goes.

            • Southern S says:

              lol yes I'm aware of that, doesn't mean someone worth 600k is going to score their average in the first few rounds, let alone in that season.

              Plus rookies and mid pricers can be undervalued, you can score as much as someone with all their money on the park, whilst having 500k in your bank, that's how this goes.

              Things change, roles change, players age, rookies get more mid time.

              This is why people won't pay for someone at their ceiling.

              • Southern S says:

                Basically what I should've said is if your team is exactly who you want, and you believe everyone has growth potential then having 100k or so in the bank doesn't hurt.

                • I'd go further, there was some optimisation done one year one this site, but I can't seem to find it where they compared what was the minimum budget required to beat the previous years winner. Turned out to be like about $6.X million, might have even been less. Then they run the analysis with the $10m budget constraint and said how much can you score… and well that went stoopid high. So if you draw the conclusion from that the more you spend the better. I have toyed with the idea of keeping nearly $500k back before bringing it in round 5 for an early double upgrade….but I just can't seem to make the logic for it stack up. Basically, it put you circa 40 points per week behind for 5 weeks, then give you an extra rookie to cull later on for a bit more cash which then allows more point scoring later in the year, note this relies on the assumption that you run out of rookies to cull. Anyways, I'm spending the lot having strongly considered about not doing it.

  100. Grahame Lebroy says:

    Hi Chris, I think left over cash is shouldn't be a consideration when selecting your starting line up. You want to score as many points as possible from the start so don't be scared to use it all up, most people do.

  101. @wheels_1987 says:

    League Code 986902

    feel free