Dex Files – Brandon Ellis

Concrete Booking Agency

TG Footy Tracgic - Dexter

One down, two to go Community! Most people had a decent week last week, for me; 1926 was ok – considering I had 4 rookies (and Griff/Lumumba) scoring shite.

I actually lost ground, again, but may make up some places in the next two weeks (providing we don’t have unforseen outs). Round 12 – time to upgrade! Pick off two or ideally 3 underperforming premiums by replacing round 12 rooks or injured players.

This week, I look at Brandon Ellis.

Grossly underrated; Brandon Ellis has been purring along this year considering he is averaging 107.1, and is in only 1.4% of teams!

Season 2015 has seen Ellis open very strong, not producing a single sub-90 score yet – for 7 tons and a low of 90 so far. There is argument he has arrived as a premium option. Priced at $549k, he is a little pricey (priced to average 102.3), although his 3 round average is at a tidy 119 and his 5 round average sits at 111.2. Tasty!

Will this form continue?

I think it’s likely considering most teams put effort into Cotchin, Martin and/or Deledio before they target Ellis.

My only real worry, if we cast our eyes over 2014 – he has dropped some serious stains (6 sub 80 scores, with 3 below 60). This is a concern, however, so far in 10 games – he hasn’t yet dropped a sub 90 score.

ellis1

As you can see – he can get the pill. In 2014 Ellis dropped below 20 disposals only 3 times – in his first 3 games. Since then, Ellis has not had a single game below 20 touches. He also likes to kick more than handball, and more importantly – has almost doubled his average tackles per game. See below, Ellis’ 2015 stats:

ellis2

For those of you who like to know how well he goes in comparison to wins and losses, in his completed 2014 season and his 2015 season so far, he has averaged around 12 points per game better in wins – which is good – a loss isn’t correlating to drastically less points.

One thing we must ask ourselves if we decide to take a punt on Ellis – Will the tigers win more than they lose between here and the finals?

Tigers run home reads: WCE (MCG), SYD (SCG), GWS (MCG), CAR (MCG), STK (ES), FRE (MCG), HAW (MCG), ADE (AO), GCS (MCG), COLL (MCG), ESS (MCG) & NM (ES). That’s a pretty tough run really. You can pencil in wins against St Kilda, Carlton, and Gold Coast. They’d start favourites against GWS, Collingwood and Essendon. They’d be 50-50 against North, Adelaide and West Coast. Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle would be losses for mine.

So; Tigers have 3 likely wins, 3 likely losses, 3 probable wins and 3 coin tosses. Looks promising really, considering his finals games are all winnable games.

His points per minute (PPM) for 2015 is really good – a shade over 1 point per minute; considering the average game goes for 120 minutes, he’s likely to hit the ton.

Notably, Ellis is more an outside player (61% possessions being uncontested) – this can spell trouble if the tag does befall him. Another stat of note is his disposal efficiency of 73%, barely differing from 2014.

For mine, Ellis is a bona-fide option for out M8 position this year. When you weigh up all that I have laid out before you, do you think he is worth it?

Ellis is a very likely inclusion for me this week.

Well Community, What about you? Is Ellis worth a valuable midfield spot? Is he overpriced? We’d love to hear from you!

Tags:

Comments (101)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. adrian says:

    Nice article. Ellis definitely worth a look at. Also his teammate Shane Edwards I reckon as a POD in the forward half! 6 hundreds and 2 scores of 80+.

    • derek says:

      Edwards would be a good pick if he was $50k cheaper.

    • scrofl says:

      I'm looking at getting Edwards in as my F6 as well. That means I'd have a Tiger in each of my lines (Edwards, Maric, Ellis, Rance).

  2. dave says:

    Lumumba to Hodge
    OR
    Saad to Hodge

    trading out saad will give me 18 on field, Lumumba I will only have 17.
    trading out Lumumba will cost 30k more but IMO saad has a 10-15 point greater scoring ability

    • Gordo D Magnificent says:

      Depends on your league/overall situation to me. If you need and want to win this week, (depends on your opponents field tbh, not a lot of teams fielding more than 17) i would trade saad. But the way i see it, Saad still has a little bit more money to be made, and lumumba is just bleeding cash.

    • derek says:

      up until about 10 minutes ago I had Hodge locked as a trade into my team this week. I just read that he has an injury cloud and has been training all week with his calf bandaged. Clarko said he will be ok. He said that about Birchell 3 weeks ago!! Hodge is a risk.

      • dave says:

        thanks for the info Derek. I would like your wisdom on who is the next best option. (I'm getting smith next week)

        • derek says:

          For the run home, I'd be looking at the good teams. Its ok to have rookies and "break out' players from Melbourne, Dogs, saints melb etc….but when the season gets serious you need to have the big boys in your team.

          For the lesser teams, there comes a point in the season where they are tired, out of contention for finals and ready for a rest. I'm looking at you Tom McDonald, Hogan, Simpson, Thumper, The Bont, Saad, Cripps even SMartin.

          So you need players from the big teams, plus you need tried and tested SC premiums. Selwood, Priddis, Hodge, Gibbo, Bartel, Enright, Taylor, Buddy, Dawson, Pendlebury……..

          Also – beware Ross Lyon…. especially when Freo are 10-1.

          There is a lack of good premium defenders this year. Only 4 have a season average over 100SC. A defence premium is a player who can average over 95+. Players who standout for me besides Hodge are; Enright, Taylor, Grundy, Shaw, Gibson, Hurley, Houli, Murphy, Yarran, Birchell

          Smith would be ok, he is cheap, but unless he is playing back on the wing where he started the year, he won't be in my team.

  3. General Soreness says:

    Dex some very solid points backed by brilliant analysis as always mate. I really like his consistency, the fact he scores in multiple ways and that he is a massive POD. Personally I wont be bringing him in as there are better at the price, but for those looking to separate themselves his POD value may be worth the premium.

  4. Manant says:

    4 trades away from a line up i would consider finals ready (no field rookies, pretty much all premo's and players like newnes and ibbo), would having 11 trades left after this seem a good amount? And how many trades should i have going into finals, cause i do want to trade ibbo to a more consistent scorer in the end.

    • Jezg says:

      7-8 trades for finals should cut in my opinion. I’m still not entirely convinced on newnes as d6. I have him and think he may be culled post bye for smith. Even thinking josh Gibson. With the Hawks at nearly full strength Gibbos intercept marking coupled with potential 20+ pos equals good POD.

  5. johnboy says:

    Should i trade Birchall this week? Just been announced that he isnt playing this week, and clarko himself said he doesnt know when he will be back.

    • derek says:

      do you mean trade in? if he isn't playing, why would you want to trade him in?

      • johnboy says:

        Don't know how you got trade in from anything from that, but i mean trade out, ive had him since round 5 and has screwed me since round 8

        • derek says:

          ok. I thought you were thinking of trading Birchell in this week (I was).

          Hold him, he will score big. The hawks have yet to have the whole defence play this year. When they do, Birchell will be free to run and carry off half back = Big SC

    • Favalinko U Beauty says:

      Birchall good chance to play this week (HOLD).

  6. derek says:

    I have had Cloke in my team from the beginning. Somehow I managed to rank in top 250.

    The plan was to get rid of him around the byes, Collingwood have Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port (in Adelaide), WCE after their bye.

    I'm crazy to keep him aren't I?

    • Ben Bretel says:

      yea good plan

      • The Ranger says:

        Hahaha! Of course he would start putting in some big scores now!
        That was bound to happen!
        Tough one Derek.
        I'd say it depends who you can trade him to, he'd be a big POD if you kept him….

  7. chris says:

    thoughts on team please and how to improve..

    def: shaw, rance, murphy, hodge, lumumba, b.smith, pearce, hamling
    mid: fyfe, pendles, beams, priddis, JPK, wines, sloane, CEY, boston, mckenzie, anderson
    ruck: blicavs, nic nat, read
    fwd: gray, swan, martin, goddard, franklin, higgins, tarrant, lamb

    thinking CEY out next week aswell as lumumba and tarrant. 2 premos, 1 rookie

    • Ben Bretel says:

      great team

    • derek says:

      good team. missing good DPP swing sets.

      Without thinking about the byes, I would consider over the next couple of weeks doing the following:

      Lumumba >> Delidio (Via Higgins)
      CEY >> Parker (gun!)
      Anderson >> Steele (give you a Mid/Fwd Swing – Anderson not getting a game soon)
      Tarrant >> HGoddard (gives you a Def/Fwd swing)

  8. I'm new to serious Supercoach and need advice as its not clear-cut to me about who to keep beyond the byes.

    Like many my main decision this week (and next week too, probably) is not who to bring in, but how to trade out. My conundrum is this, I had expected to keep Newnes long term but noticed that currently:

    NEWNES – Ave SC: 82.73, $445300 DEF/MID (overall player ranking 94)
    OXLEY – Ave SC: 84.09, $392200 DEF (overall player rank 86)
    KOLODJASHNIJ, K – Ave SC 82.36, $429300 DEF (overall player rank 96)
    SAAD, Adam – Ave SC: 83.5, $389300 DEF/MID (overall player rank 137)

    (would love to know where to find info on how to locate SC positional player rankings too btw: ie what is OXLEY and NEWNES rankings as defenders over the current year??)

    Based on the above info why keep NEWNES over OXLEY?

    I have had to make 8 injury related trades this year so far and I have limited remaining trades so I'm pretty sure I wont go full premium (at least not all 30 players), so I WILL need to keep at least one of the above.

    Any thoughts whould be greatly appreciated

    • derek says:

      I wouldn't worry about rankings to much, they can be distorted a lot based on who they have played, injuries etc.

      I made my "Final" team a few weeks ago and have only worried about when should I get those players in (although I'm starting to re-consider delidio).

      If Oxley, Saad, KK are not in your final team, it is just a matter of when you get rid of them. I have newness in my final team at D6. I like that he plays a lot of midfield time and he is DPP. Oxley was always a cash cow.

  9. Tulendeena says:

    Krakouer > Steele
    Brown > Hamling

    Bellch > Dahlhaus

    Thoughts

  10. Marco_Polo94 says:

    Originally selected Murphy but now I'm wavering a bit. I have $610k to spend on a midfielder. Who would be the pick of the R11 bye premium midfielders? Currently have Sloane, Beams, Deledio and Martin (last two are in forwards).

  11. murray says:

    I think you should keep brown as a handy backup. He will play every game and offload him only if he gets injured. Also Krakouer might get rookie upgrade this week. I would punt him only if he is not selected this week as his bye in R13. Totally agree with your third trade

  12. Youngy says:

    As a Tigers fan, I would like to point out that the Tigers have a very very hard run home.

    If you bring Ellis in, bring him in with caution.

  13. Mac says:

    Suggest some trades. Got 670k in the bank.

    Simpson, Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Saad, Lever, Hamling, Pearce
    Fyfe, Beams, Selwood, JPK, Parker, Treloar, Rockliff, Miller, Steele, Dumont, McKenzie
    Goldstein, Maric, Read
    Gray, Martin, Swan, Franklin, Tarrent, Goddard, Lonie, Hogan.

    Was thinking of trading Saad, Miller and Lonie but not sure who to. Suggestions?

    • BCHawks says:

      Saad – hodge
      Miller – Sloane
      Lonie – Deledio

      • Mac says:

        Thanks BC! If I'm being honest, I'm not touching Sloane and Deledio. Both have been injured and don't want Deledio due to price tag. Was thinking Dahlhaus. Hodge I like. Then I need a mid. Lewis?

        • Marcus says:

          miller to pendles
          Lonie to dahlhaus
          I wouldnt get hodge but there arent any consistent defenders atm

        • SCaddict says:

          At least Sloane's injuries have been collision related so shouldn't impact him going forward. Lids recent soft tissue injury history could prove more relevant if his achilles tendonitis recurs later in the season.

  14. CashCows says:

    Stupid or no brainer move??

    Bring in Danger at his price now and stick with the plan of bringing in keepers only.
    Had his bye and need bodies on the field.

    Or is it too much to pay even if he ends top 8-10 for the year..

  15. papa says:

    Dahlhaus or Deledio? who will finish averaging higher?

    • Gordo D Magnificent says:

      Dalhaus for me, Lids has a habit of going missing in some games

    • SCaddict says:

      Probably Lids but I value Dahl's recent durability record highly. Has played 53 of his past 54 games where as we know Lids has had recurring achilles issues to deal with over the past few years, even though he's travelling quite nicely right now.

      So factoring that into the buying decion combined with the fact that he's $50K cheaper I'll be snapping up Dahl this week myself.

  16. the chef says:

    15 trades 500k
    Back: shaw, tmac, newnes, hodge, hamling, Dmac (pearce, brown)

    Mid: fyfe, beams, steven, JPK, parker, ebert, Boston, CEY (rocky, heeney, glenn)

    Ruck: maric, nic nat (read)

    Fwd: gray, martin, swan, Tarrant, titch, clark (TBC, krak)

    Only have 14 playing this week but easy win in my league thinking about these trades

    CEY into the def by DMac swing —> houli
    clark —> goddard/franklin
    and then what other trade should i do?

    Cheers community.

  17. the chef says:

    15 trades 500k
    Back: shaw, tmac, newnes, hodge, hamling, Dmac (pearce, brown)

    Mid: fyfe, beams, steven, JPK, parker, ebert, Boston, CEY (rocky, heeney, glenn)

    Ruck: maric, nic nat (read)

    Fwd: gray, martin, swan, Tarrant, titch, clark (TBC, krak)

    Only have 14 playing this week but easy win in my league thinking about these trades

    ROUND 12:
    CEY into the def by DMac swing —> houli
    clark —> goddard/franklin
    and then what other trade should i do?

    ROUND 13:
    krak/TBC —> steele
    dmac –> MID PREMO
    Cheers community.

  18. The Ranger says:

    Not for me at that price.
    Richmond have a tough run home too and he may well drop off.

  19. Liam says:

    Thought on Lewis??
    Not sure if he will finish as a top 10 mid

    • derek says:

      SMitchell is back in fine form this year and getting all the hard ball. Lewis has become an outside player and not getting as much contested ball. Avoid.

    • Danners says:

      If you have Sloane, he is a good option

  20. Bont says:

    Which 3 players should I trade out this week out of:Which 3 players should I trade out this week out of:
    Oxley
    Saad
    Rocky
    Clark
    Cripps
    CEY

    Was wanting to get Hodge but heard he is under an injury cloud. Who is the next best option to bring in apart from Hodge in defence.
    Have Simpson, Smith & Shaw

    • patricia says:

      oxley and saad still have a fair bit of cash in them so a NO to them
      cripps with the absence of judd, will score quite well, history supports this,
      i would go Clark, Rocky (still possibly 4 weeks away) and then CEY, with the return of sloane, crouch up and running in reserves again his time may be limited to the red vest at best
      cheers

    • Danners says:

      Clark, Cripps, CEY if you have a team for this round

  21. G says:

    Hi folks

    Need your help

    The bont hasn’t done much in the last few games and he has had injury issues as well.

    Should I upgrade him to Goddard or Dahlhaus?

    Or

    Keep him in the team.

    Looking for your expert advice?

  22. Major Mooseknuckles says:

    Hey community, need an opinion on whether Wallis is a valid selection over Sloane – Wallis seems to be off the leash in terms of tagging duties. He competes for points as any player does but I think the competition in the crows engine room is more fierce. Not to mention the dogs have more runs on the board against tougher teams.

    Any insight/opinion is valued and appreciated

    Cheers guys

    • hedski says:

      Ha ha. Love the name major.

    • Danners says:

      I have been contemplating Wallis as well. If you don't have the cash to get Sloane he would be a good option, but is he going to be in your final team at the end of the season? There is more of a chance that Sloane would be

  23. L.Gibbs says:

    Thoughts on Rory Sloane? And who do you think will be the top 10

    Midfielders by seasons end?

    • Donavan says:

      Fyfe, Pendlebury, Priddis, Dangerfield, Lewis, Hannebury, Mundy, Selwood, Kennedy (Armatage or Shiel).

      Sloan is well priced, has had some time off, so should be fresh, has signed his contract, so his head should be clear. Good chance to return to early season form, and finish just outside the top 10 mids.

      • Liam says:

        So,You don't think Beams will finish in the top 10

        • Donavan says:

          Ranked 9th by average currently, could perhaps be in the mix to remain in the top 10, but a long season with no midfield help (particularly if Rockliff is out for a great portion on the remainder of the season).

    • wise old man says:

      I think Fyfe might just slip in at one then Pendles, Hannebery, Dangerfield, Gray, Beams, Priddis, Armitage, Mundy, and Ebert

    • Danners says:

      Sloane is a good pickup
      Fyfe, Pendlebury, Gray, Dangerfield, Priddis, Beams, Lewis, Ablett by average

  24. panther says:

    what trades should i do this week have 540k in the bank

    Shaw, Enright, Saad, Lumumba, Kmac, Dmac (Pearce, S.hureley)
    Fyfe, Priddis,Pendles,Heppell,Parker, Selwood, B.Ellis, Montagna (Amon, Stretch, Smith)
    Goldstein, Maric (Read)
    Gray, Martin, Swan, Zieball, Titch, Lonie (Dale, Lambert)

    was thinking of getting rid of saad, lumumba,kmac and lonie. which 3 should i get rid of

  25. dave says:

    why is no one considering JPK? he should be a popular pick next round after his bye.

  26. hedski says:

    Gday community. Just wondering if there is a podcast tonight seeing theres a game tommorow? Thanks

  27. james says:

    who to get out of Simpson Tmac Houli Hodge Laird Picken bob murphy, pick 3

  28. wise old man says:

    I need one more midfield premo. I'm currently looking at Pearce Hanley, Dayne Beams and Patrick Dangerfield.
    Could you guys help me out a bit here?

    Thanks

    • CashCows says:

      If you need one now, you'd have to go Beams.

      Danger too expensive and hanley is still a little unproven, only playing one game.

    • Danners says:

      Might need to read the article above, Ellis I reckon could get it done

  29. qaz says:

    What are peoples thoughts or Bob Murphy?
    I feel like with the Dogs upcoming soft draw he will get considerable amounts of the pill as his teammates look for him for his distribution by foot. Will increase his average into the top six defenders i reckon and his price isnt to expensive as well.
    Good choice or go with the likes of Simpson and Hodge

    • adrian says:

      I’ve gone Murphy this week. Over his bye and at a good price. Very consistent as well.

    • Donavan says:

      Looking at Bob's scores, he tends to score poorly against the poorer teams.

      Worst 2 scores this year were against St.Kilda & Melbourne. I dont know the reason why, but maybe the poorer teams make some effort to stop him getting the ball and being creative, whereas the better sides spend more time having their fowards focus on attacking.

      • qaz says:

        Very interesting point, because if you take those two scores out he has had a very good year. Reckon the fact however that these are must win games for the Dogs will lift his effort being captain to lead by example.

      • Sana says:

        Maybe simply because the ball isn't in defence as much vs poorer teams?

    • SCaddict says:

      Simpson would be the one to get for those looking to upgrade their defence this week who don't already have him.

      • qaz says:

        Both are good options, but i reckon Simpson's output will be very similar to Murphy from this point in the year and thus myself leaning to Murphy as he is a little less expensive with a slightly lower breakeven

  30. Ryan says:

    Hodge, Enright or Simpson?

  31. pete says:

    can anyone tell me whats going on with Ricky Henderson. I was hoping to hold him for a while as he has a BE of 50 odd but it seams im going to have to trade him over Lumumba to field a side. he hasn't played since rd 7 and I was hoping he could average around 90 countinuing the upwards trajectory of his 85.3 average in 2013, (2014 only played 8 games due to injury)

    • SCaddict says:

      Crows are still holding him back as he recovers from that back complaint. Like Birchall it's just one of those things that has dragged on a few more weeks than expected but he will probably play next week but nothing is guaranteed of course.

      As he's unlikely to be a season long keeper I would upgrade him to a 2015 premo defender this week anyway, especially if it's going to cost you a donut to carry him another round.

      Yes you might lose out on a tiny bit of cash by not keeping the faith but you will probably feel a whole lot better once your rolled gold replacement, in all likelihood, belts out a decent score this weekend.

    • Francis says:

      Same boat mate, I upgraded him to Hodge this week.

  32. Alex says:

    Hi Community, wanting to know with the 10 team leagues, who makes the cut for finals, is it top 4,6, or 8❓

  33. Cyril is Delicious says:

    Do I get in Hodge? Or do I go a cheaper option in Murphy, Laird, Smith, Houli or Gibson, to save one cash?

    Getting Hodge in will leave me with $161,000?

    Cheers!

  34. Jordan says:

    is Brodie Smith a worthy pick? If so I'm thinking of trading Birchall – Smith and Saad – Mcdonald. Mcdonalds bye will not effect my team with his bye next round as I will have 20 players playing

  35. Donavan says:

    Community,

    Looking for some assistance, I have enough players for both this week and next week, so my thoughts are longer-term.

    Just trying to upgrade in the forward line, and have a few options, involving the trading out of Tarrant, either this week or next, I will have upto $555,400 to spend. Current forward line looks like – Gray, Goddard, Franklin, Motlop, Hogan, Tarrant (Dale & Lonie).

    Think of possibly doing one of the following trades this week-
    Tarrant to Gunston
    Tarrant to J.Riewoldt
    Tarrant to Wingard
    Tarrant to Dahlhaus
    Tarrant to Gawn (for cash to further upgrade, would be on ground/loophole candidate) to D.Martin (in 2-3 weeks)

    or wait and do one of the following-
    Tarrant to N.Riewoldt (next week)
    Tarrant to Betts (next week)
    Tarrant to Rioli (next week)

    Help please, I am really struggling with this decision, leaning towards either Gunston this week or N. Riewoldt next week.

    Thanks.

  36. Mitch says:

    Would really appreciate some help this week community

    I only have 15 playing this week (16 if Clark is named)

    Shaw newnes Kolodjashnij saad lever n.brown hamling mcintosh

    Fyfe pendles beams Selwood Parker Shiel griffin Cripps Mckenzie Boston Dumont

    Goldy Maric

    Gray d.martin swan Goddard dahlhause Tarrant Clark lambert

    The ones I want to cull are saad, kk, newnes but it’s very hard to do as they’re producing some good scores.

    Can anyone tell me who to bring in. Have 17 trades and 448k in the chest.

    Will trade out Tarrant when he has he’s bye

    Thanks community !!

    • CashCows says:

      Do not trade newnes. At least not yet. He's the least of your problems.

      Clark most likely won't be back this week and including his bye, he's out for 2, I say trade.

      I'd say trade Clark, saad and kk.
      Clark to a premo so your fwd line will be finish.

      Bring in the likes of Simpson and/or Hodge in your defence.
      Or
      Bring in only one of them and switch mckenzie to defence and bring in a mid premo so you upgrade one in every line.

  37. Danners says:

    Great article Dex! Ellis is definitely a player I haven't heard much of in the community and should be definitely considered. I brought him in before his a bye and it looks like it could pay off or I hope it does. I would say it would be better to get Ellis in over Dangerfield this week

  38. Shayne says:

    I had Rockliff at the start and then traded him out and back in again,should i just hold him or burn another trade and go to Sloane

  39. I should this sport at young age so i can relate more.