Supercoach 2015 – Luke Parker

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach 2015, Sydney Swans by on January 4, 2015 • views: 5623

Luke Parker was the savior of the Lekdog’s Puppies forward line in 2014.

LekdogIn 2013 Luke Parker ended his season with scores of 98, 110 and 82. He looked good under the pressures of finals football, which prompted me to pick him at the start of 2014.

He was a priced at $468,800 and went on to average 108.45 Supercoach points which saw his price end the year at $580,700.

He became the 8th best player for Supercoach 2014 and remarkably hasn’t been discussed much for the 2015 season.

 

2015 Price: $583,000
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 108.45
100+ games last season: 15
Sub 80 games last season: 1
Price range last season: $468K-$580K
Missed games last season: Just one in round 10
Significant history: Kicked 25 goals in 2014
High scores of 151 and 141 in 2014
Won Sydney’s Best and Fairest 2014

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This might be because Parker has lost his dual-position eligibility meaning that he is a midfielder only in 2015. The beauty of Parker in 2014 was that he was able to swing between our forward and midfield lines which gave us flexibility that we will not have in 2015. Generally people are only looking at the absolute premium players (if they don’t have dual-position eligibility) to take up their valuable midfield positions.

Well I’m here to tell you that the 2014 Bob Skilton medalist, Luke Parker is absolutely a premium midfielder.

Though the Supercoach site would tell you that his average for 2014 was under 110 (generally premiums average well above 110), I am here to tell you that his 108.45-point average undersells him.

During 2014 Luke Parker only had one sub-80 game (60) in round 13. From round 14-23 Parker only had one sub-100 game (80) for an average of 120.2 including scores of 129, 141 and 151. In ten games the he only slumped under 100 once!

If we are to predict his output for 2015 in the same way I did for 2014 we must look at his performance throughout the finals. The Swans only played 3 games in the finals and Parker was a standout during their push for the flag. He scored 127 against Fremantle, leading disposals with 32 for the game. He then scored 158 in the Swans win against North Melbourne with 26 disposals, 3 goals and 8 tackles. And in the Grand Final Sydney only had two players score above 100 points and Parker struggled with only 74, which meant that he averaged 119.6 throughout the finals.

If we take his three finals games and add them to the games he played post-round 13 (his only sub-80 game for the year) Parker averaged 120.08 Supercoach points. That’s premium output if I’ve ever seen it.

Parker’s total average for the year including finals was 109.8 Supercoach points.

Image 1

If all of this is any indication of his output for next year then his price of $583,000 (which is cheaper than his final price in 2014) is easily justified and he should be on everyone’s radar for their starting team. Supercoach genius Peter Higginbotham has worked out that based on his last 13 game average of 120 Parker should be priced at $645,000. So by my calculations we are saving 62k by putting Parker in our starting lineups.

RISK FACTOR

Risk factor is minimal. He no longer has Fwd/Mid eligibility but that shouldn’t scare us away, he proved himself to be a premium player last year and should continue to improve.

Because Sydney were essentially banned from taking part in trade week Tom Mitchell may get more game time but I don’t see that time coming from Parkers minutes around the ground.

The loss of Malceski might reduce some of the ball coming from Sydney’s backline and into the hands of Parker, but I have faith that the Swans will find a way to negate the loss of their All-Australian defender.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you are going to select Parker he needs to be in your starting or at the very least identify him as an upgrade target. His price will vary a bit but I think for the most part he will increase his value to above 600k very quickly. In 2015 I see Parker bettering his 2014 ranking of 8th by one or two spots.

THE GOOD

  • Averaged 109.8 for 2014
  • Averaged 120.08 over his last 13 games and will look to carry that momentum into 2015
  • Plays in a winning side
  • Tackles a lot and kicks a few goals=Supercoach points
  • Is still only 22 and heading into his prime
  • Won Sydney’s Best and Fairest in 2014
  • Durable, played 22 games in 2013 and 2014

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Lost dual-position eligibility
  • Will take up a valuable midfield spot
  • Sydney has lost some talent in the off-season

THE VERDICT

I know I have a tendency to hype up the players that I’m writing about but Parker does it for himself this time. I hadn’t considered putting him in my team until my research showed that his last 13-game average was 120.08. Now I am considering him heavily. As a midfielder who I predict will continue his average of 120 into the 2015 season, Parker is well underpriced. He was the best player at the second best team in the AFL for 2014 and was the 8th best player in the competition…he’s only 22 and improving.

He’s in my team right now community, let me know what you think.

LOCK HIM IN!

Lekdog

Twitter: @lekblog

 

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

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Comments (61)

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  1. Captain says:

    I have a team of :

  2. General Soreness says:

    Great write up Lekdog, as one of the people who went Titch over Parker I became very aware of how good Parkers 2014 was and is being heavily considered as a starter. Definitely an upgrade target if $ and structure doesn’t allow a start. They are some pretty impressive stats post round 13. Will watch preseason closely for any issues from Malceski departure. Again nice work.

    • @LekBlog says:

      Thanks mate, Malceski leaving is my only real concern but I feel they'll throw McVeigh back there permanently or maybe even find a way to get Tom Mitchell running off half back so I think Parkers points are safe.

      • Leighroy says:

        I think if Alex Johnson comes back he will play look down on third tall and rampe will play malceski role. I feel rampe will take over kick in duty and had a 2% better disposal efficiency then malceski for the year. I remember hearing someone at sydney say they like rampe up the ground but with the injuries to Johnson they have been forced to play him deeper in defence then they like. Preseason games will give more indication of whether this will happen but this is my offseason view of what sydney would like to do

  3. BarronVonCrow says:

    Got my eyes on him Lekka, he's certainly very tempting. Would have been a LOCK if he still had FWD eligibility.

  4. I N Pieman says:

    Very nice Lek. Probably won’t start with him. But I will keep an eye on him for a M7-M8 spot. Pretty durable & a very good player. So I like him. Wouldn’t read into his GF score. The whole team was ordinary

    • @LekBlog says:

      Yeah agreed Pie, they were terrible in the GF. Will be in my team at the start if not early into the season. Might drop his price a little as he tends to have lower (still 100's) scores at the beginning of the year.

  5. BCHawks says:

    Very nice article Lek. I wasn't considering him before reading this but now I am strongly considering him. Will watch him in the nab cup. He also might be a nice POD.

  6. Kev says:

    Significant piece, Lek. Initially I had put a line through him when I saw his starting price. The big stat for me is based on his second half of the year he is worth 645k on 2015. Could be a handy POD to slot into the mids if cash is needed elsewhere

    • @LekBlog says:

      Yeah Kev that's what did it for me, to be fair he was terrific all year and I used round 13 onwards as a case study just because it was his lowest score for the year. Paying under 600k for a top ten scorer of 2014 is pretty good in my eyes.

  7. Leighroy says:

    Great work lek, making me think now.

  8. @emhoy says:

    Great write up would you have him ahead of dangerfield who is 20K cheaper? I currently have Danger as my last premium mid at M5.

    • @LekBlog says:

      Thanks mate, at this stage yes because I think he is more consistent than Danger despite having a lower ceiling. He's probably more of a P.O.D than danger too…in a perfect world I'll probably get both in early in the season.

      Dangerfield is also in his contract year before free agency so that may play a roll?

      • Leighroy says:

        Danger normally has a slow start to the year too. Barron mentioned something about this in a podcast early last year. I think the number 93 was what danger averages in his first 4-5 rounds of his past 3 seasons so if history repeats you may get danger at low 500k maybe even 400’s

  9. @emhoy says:

    He also shares his bye with Gazza, Pendles and Fyfe

    • @LekBlog says:

      That I had not considered, I knew he shared it with Gaz but Pendles is annoying. I personally never trust Fyfe due to his injury history (as we've seen in the preseason) so he probably won't be in my lineup.

      Preseason will reveal all.

  10. throttlefinger says:

    Stellar piece, Lekdawg. Guy who I love to watch play. He's definitely an emerging gun who is not quite there to be lockable. Keen eyes will be on him preseason and R1-2 to see how he does this season, especially off the jump. Could be the perfect M7/8, as Pieman suggested. Like many, favor Danger over him in terms of value and scoring potential.

    • @LekBlog says:

      Yeah Throttle I'll be keeping an eye on him, not committing completely yet but I like a tasty P.O.D in the mids (like Priddis last year). Danger has a higher ceiling but his consistency isn't there week in and week out…his contract year too…i'd like to have both if i'm honest.

      Thanks for reading

      • throttlefinger says:

        Like both as well, Lek. Mining for SC diamonds always the most time-consuming yet thrilling part of the game (well, thrilling if you nail a Priddis or Rocky). K Jack is one Swan to consider…had an off year by his standards so is priced a little lower and could go 110+.

  11. NumbatsFC says:

    Cheers and thanks for your efforts Mr L`Dog but, I think locking Parker for a starting position would be a mistake. Your data suggests that he should be considered as a possible post bye upgrade but not as a starting lock.
    As a midfielder only he is worthy of consideration but he also shares a bye with 4 or 5 proven midfielders of much better scoring potential he wont increase in price before the bye so there isn't any reason to start with him instead of Priddis, Barlow, Gray,Libba, or Ward.
    Parker finished in a very similar style to Jordan Lewis last year but Parker averaged 20 pts p/game LESS than Lewis over the last 5 games. but I would never consider starting Lewis as a midfielder only either.
    what I am saying is that isolating a part of a season isn't a wise way to pick a player for SC.

    • @LekBlog says:

      Hey Numbats, yeah his bye sharing is an issue and I'm not suggesting people should lock him in. At this stage I have him in as a P.O.D in a fairly stacked midfield (will change a trillion times before season starts).
      I only isolated the second half of his year because it came after his worst game and it gave the article some context and structure, it is also how I chose him for 2014.
      Importantly he scored more last year than Lewis, Priddis, Barlow and Ward but I totally get what you are saying and I appreciate you reading the article.

      Lek

      • NumbatsFC says:

        Hi LDog. He didn't score more than Priddis last year (almost 100 points less) but he did score 10 more points than Rocky :)I just wish they'd make him mid/def out of mercy to all supercoaches

    • Phil says:

      I made the point about Jordan Lewis in one of the other threads Numbats, but he didn't average the same as Parker (120) in the last few games but more; I have him close to 140 for the last 7-8 games including finals. Yet I haven't seen him once in anyone teams, not even a bias Hawthorn supporter. I guess people figure that Lewis is 28, so if he has never been able to average SC elite until now it's beyond him. Whereas Parker is 22 with obvious upside.

      Great piece Leks, you managed to confuse the hell out of me haha. Just when I think my midfields starting to look settled, he throws this beauty at me.

      • NumbatsFC says:

        Hi Phil. Which Hawks less than $200,000 are likely to be given a good go this year?

        • Numbats,

          I'd be looking at a quadrant of Jed Anderson, Jono O'Rourke, Alex Woodward and Billy Hartung.

          I'd expect Anderson, O'Rourke and Woodward to get some games during the year with possibly one of them breaking the best 22. A lot of talk around Anderson but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Woodward. Hartung is a good replacement for when Rioli goes down.

      • Lewis had a great end to the year averaging 130 over his last 7 games. As you said it is very hard to pick a player like Lewis because he has played so much football and it is very easy to put that down to a hot patch in form.
        The Hawks are the ultimate team with everyone contributing. Lewis was the only Hawk to finish with an average over 100 yet they had 12 players averaging over 85 Supercoach points. I don't see that changing in 2015 so I can't see Lewis been able to maintain an average of 130 for an entire season. I'd put him in the 105avg bracket so I see no valve in picking him.

        • @LekBlog says:

          Agreed on Lewis fellas, Woodward might get a game after winning the VFL best and fairest but is injury prone so I pretty much put a line through him.

  12. Great work Lek,

    This one has stirred up a fair bit of debate. I too love a good POD. I went into 2014 picking Rockliff as a POD in the midfield in similar circumstances. Rocky went from a FWD/MID to a MID only and had a massive average over the last 8 home and away games of 2013. When others were put off my the lost of Dual eligibility I was all over him.

    Thinking outside the box is very important in this game so I love the commitment to this selection without been a 100% sold myself.

    Will monitor Packer during the preseason but my structures probably won't allow me to put him in. Not to say he's not wordy of a selection.

    • I N Pieman says:

      He is a POD selection this year Mick. I’m quite keen on Dom Tyson. What are your thoughts on him Mick?

      • I am very aware that Mr Higginbottom is very keen on Dom and I do think he has some relevance going into 2015.

        My biggest problem with picking a midfield player priced around the $500k mark is that they really need to be averaging close to 110 to justify the spend. I do think Tyson is a strong chance to go to that level but I'd have no conviction in saying he definitely will. Last thing you want is having one of your midfield spots producing a 100 average for the entire year.

        Its a classic risk vs reward scenario and for me there is just too much risk for not enough reward.

        I'll be spending less money on Jack Steven priced at 456k. If he flops I can justify him as a stepping stone and move him on and if he succeeds I have a keeper for a bargain starting price of 456k. Less risk, more reward for mine.

        • I N Pieman says:

          I see your logic 100% Mick. But you have to put the aggots on the line somewhere. Last season I picked Darlhouse & Malcheski. And they were more than serviceable. Nobody had them. They were risks. I think you can take 4. Because you can correct them if they turn out to be spuds & not lose money. If you’ve figured out defence Id be happy to hear your theory. What a nightmare it is!

    • @LekBlog says:

      Thanks Micky, the community are going to town on this article but as leaders of this wonderful community sometimes we've just got to put it out there and see what happens.

      I just like the boy and he's only going to get better in my opinion.

  13. rainman says:

    Top quality write up. He is currently sitting at M5 in my starting squad. Will slide to a nice consistent M8 by season end.

  14. lostlarrikin says:

    Super words there Lek.
    Its a great sell and one i'll be weighing up for sure.
    Concern for me is the competition with Hannebery. Hanner's injury seemed to coincide quite nicely with Parker's rise mid yr.
    Both of these guys and JPK all have the goods to pump out 30+ touches/game but can they all do it at the same time?
    I see more value in Hanners (review in the works) but Parker cert has the runs on the board for 2014.
    As raised, the bye clash is a killer.

    • @LekBlog says:

      Thanks mate, a good point about hannebery. I'm hoping with McVeigh going back to fill a spot in the backline it'll free up points for Parker and the like.

  15. NumbatsFC says:

    Has their been a pause in the daily review feature or is my browser lazy/broken? Is Jan 4th the most recent?

  16. Dools says:

    You are correct Numbats,
    No player review since Lukey Parker and for $583K he is an upgrade not a starter for me Steel Sidebum a little more excy but given the absence of Beams he would be a strong contender as a POD Keeper and an AVG to go into the high teen hundreds!
    Off "To the fridge!!" for more cricket and research.

  17. WombatsFC says:

    Thanks Lek I had actually scratched this bloke until I read this and had another look at him.
    I'll be playing close attention to NAB to see if Titch has any impact on Parkers output.

  18. Crowls says:

    So heres the question, dilemma etc. Last year we were tossing up Tmitch and Parker. could not split the buggers, to my chagrin I chose Tmitch. Is Parker worth that much more than Tmitch? Plus Tmitch still has the DPP going for him. Surely a man capable of 40 touches in the reserves can crack a game and he is the right age to step up. Therefore more upside to Tmitch than Parker.

    • @LekBlog says:

      He'll be playing for sure and looks like he'll be in my fwd line. Given I had about 5 sydney blokes last year I'm not worried about choosing both rather than one or the other.

  19. @LekBlog says:

    Update- Realised that Parker didn't miss a game, I thought his bye was an injury.

  20. taylorwoof says:

    Saw the Round 13 replay of Sydney v Richmond late last night on FOX.

    I so want him back in my side now.

  21. Jerry Smith says:

    Some of them proves themselves to be one of the best in all and some could not even do work to be recognized.

  22. SlimQuick says:

    Amazing article. I am so impressed. Could never think of such a thing is possible with it…I think you have a great knowledge especially while dealings with such subjects.

  23. Lipozene says:

    This website was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I've found something that helped me. Appreciate it!