Supercoach 2015 – Travis Boak

Filed in Port Adelaide, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 22, 2014 • views: 3232

Shouldn’t we all be in the same Boak?

Chicko - elite fantasy analystLet me tell you a tale of a young boy from Torquay….at the end of 2012, only two short years ago, Travis Boak stood and stared at a massive fork in the road, down one path was the posse of Selwood, Bartel and coach Scott wooing him back to his home town of Geelong and its promise of premiership riches.

Down the other path was the Power, who at that stage were lower than Rex Hunt’s shark droppings – no crowds, no money, no coach, no passion…and yet Boaksaid get stuffed to the Cats and stayed to help turn the Power around. That speak volumes on the intestinal fabric of this young man Boak, he is loyal and committed – you can’t say that about too many players after this trade period (I am talking to you Griff, Ryder, Christensen et al).

In 2013, Boak was made Captain and his scores went bang! His average increased by nearly 20% equating to an additional 16 points a game and has held steady ever since.

Boak is in his prime Supercoach years, he is 26, has been Captain for 2 years, has played 21 games in both of his Captain years, and loves it when the game is on the line. In the big games he scores big. So why aren’t we in the Travis Boak? He was only owned by 3% of teams in 2014 – making him an excellent POD.

2015 Price: $568,200
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 21
Average last season: 105.71
100+ games last season: 10
Sub 80 games last season: 4 (an additional 3 scores in the 80’s)
Price range last season: $524k to $576k
Missed games last season: 1
Significant history: Captain of the club since 2013
Club B&F in 2011 (runner up in 2013)
Has averaged over 100 over the past 2 years (107, 106)
All Australian in 2013
Ranked 3rd in the comp for Inside 50s
Ranked 8thin total Contested Possessions
Career high average of 27 disposals in 2014

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In the 5 years before being made Captain, Boak averaged 88 points, since being made Captain his scores have popped – the kids loves the responsibility that comes with leadership. That is a huge tick folks. There is a lot of Boakwhich reminds me of Selwood– they were from the same draft with Boak going at pick 5 and Selwood at Pick 7. Both of them hunt the footy and love it when it is contested.

Here is the one stat that has me thinking the most, in 2014, Boak played 10 games against Top 8 sides and averaged 121 in these games. ONE TWENTY ONE. Need I say more? Only Ablett, Rockliff, Pendles and Ward had a higher average against Top 8 teams.

RISK FACTOR

I suspect the biggest risk with Boak is his propensity to take the foot off the gas against lesser teams. Perhaps you can live with this, as against the higher ranked teams he can go very LARGE.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you make the call to start with Boak then it would be a view to hold him all year. His price doesn’t vary too much through the course of a year, which also means you could select him at any stage and sleep wonderfully warm in the comfort of his average score. The alternative is that you bring him in once you cull a couple of fattened rookies.

THE GOOD

  • High ceiling – when Boak goes big, he goes very big. Scoring 150+ on 4 occasions, which is nearly 20% of the time
  • Durability – has played 21 games in each of the past two years
  • Contested ball magnet and inside 50s equals excellent supercoach scoring

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Boak’s record against weaker opposition is a concern, he seemingly cares less when he knows the Power will win
  • 7 scores of sub 90 is not great for a prime midfielder

THE VERDICT

I’m impressed with what Boak has done over the past two years, he cares for his club and he cares the most in big games. Two admirable traits. The fact he loves the contested ball and does damage in the forward half of the ground also speak volumes.

Verdict – watch at this stage, could prove decent value and has a very high ceiling. He is on the watchlist for the Chumps, but you can count on one thing for certain, he will be ahead of Murphy and Cotchin when it comes to settling on the midfield lineup.

WATCH WITH A VIEW TO A STARTING BERTH

What’s your view on T-Boak in 2015?

Cheers

Chicko

Twitter: @Chicko_LCS

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock Reynolds
This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

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Comments (42)

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  1. Creep says:

    Nice write up Chicko, he’s definatly on the watch list maybe with Vossy there he could get a bit more out of him.

    • Chicko says:

      THanks Creep, you might be right on the money there about Vossy. Vossy may just make sure Boak is ruthless all of the time.

  2. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Magnificent Chicko. Port if they remain healthy will be a challenger next year. So casting an eye over the guts of the team is critical. Sensational analysis of everything you need to know about Boak. Given I think Port will be a powerhouse next year he’s right in calculations

    • Chicko says:

      Too kind Pieman, but I am right with you. These guys will be right in the mix and the pick up of Ryder only makes them more of a contender. My only concern on Boak is against lesser teams, but I would rather have a contested ball machine in my mids than an outside player.

      • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

        All credit to you chicko, that was a pearler. Great research & wisdom. Couldn't agree more aboutn contested ball beasts. The points pigs. We love them

        • Chicko says:

          We bloody adore them Pie, don't we – a midfield of contested beasts gets me swollen in places you don't want to talk about at parties. I am talking beasts like Selwood, Boak, Priddis, Dangerfield, Fyfe (my next article). Rolled gold. I think I have to take myself offline as I'm starting to get a bit aroused making it difficult to sit too close to the desk. My humble apologies.

          • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

            No need to apologise Chicko. I have the same problem at my desk every Friday afteroon when I fire up Tinder. A GAJ Pendles Selwood Fyfe Danger (contract year) & either Priddis or Boak would set you back significant spend. But it woulld be a line almost locked away. 2 significanly undervalued Rucks could allow that to happen.

            • Chicko says:

              I have my eye very closely on a Tom Bellchambers and Matt Luenberger combo for that exact same reason INP.

  3. General Soreness says:

    Thumbs up Chicko. Definitely in calculations, very surprised to learn he was in so few teams. The main thing that sticks out for me is your research showing he goes larger in bigger games, with Ports high finish there will be more of them by construct of the fixture, therefore he should go bigger more often. Based on your magnificent analysis the fixture for the start of the season and the make up of the last four games may determine whether he gets a start or is a downgrade target.

  4. Chicko says:

    Thanks General, my fellow Bomber brother! If he gets a good run home, he may have just jumped up the queue for a starting berth in my midfield – a definite POD! I have this urge to go different in my midfield for next year. I suspect it is an urge I will grapple with for most of the summer.

  5. Very interesting, would be good to see once the fixture is released and perhaps there is a good point where he plays 3 – 4 lower teams in a row followed by 3 – 4 higher teams in a row. Might see him have a slight price dip and then grab him right as he goes BANG against the top end teams?

    Apart from that I don't think I'll start him, I am currently looking at going GAJ, Pendles, Griff and 7 rookies in the guts is my thinking… with Griff easily dropped for another rookie. But I think Griff offers potentially far better value over Boak and the cash invested in bringing a low end rookie up to a premium rookie can make a big difference early when you have to play them on the field.

    One to watch though, as you never know what terrible media articles I'll read and late at night decide to take as gospel and change my whole structure because Pendles has changed from Gatorade to Powerade which would change the world!

    • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

      3-7 would be ballsy. Could be genius or could be a disaster. Im thinking at the moment is a 4 mil spend in the midfield 6-4. The mids is really the first line you need finished. Boak sounds like the perfect player for end of season if Port was pushing for finals, top 4 or top 2.

    • General Soreness says:

      Saw a 2-8 deployed last season, mildly effective in league but no good for overall rank. Couple of issues , too many rooks exposed to vest, rest, drop and trades have to be spot on, no room for error. On plus side got to upgrade easily with $$ to form players. It is a strategy I wont be adopting any time soon.

      • throttlefinger says:

        Think it will be guns and rook with a modified guns to sneak one quality, undervalued prem mid in. Can't wait to hear the prices and fire up the Higginator.

  6. Chicko says:

    Cheers Rob, 3-7 midfield is aggressive! I like it. I think Higgo has been thinking about running with a 7-3 mid structure. As you say, I suspect you will change your team precisely 1,726 times before settling on your original combination. Don't be afraid to be different!

    • jockreynolds says:

      Special article as always Chicko – you have stepped up to the plate with significant aplombs.

      • Chicko says:

        Why thank you Uncle Jock, as always I try to put my plums on the line with aplomb. Over the years I have found it a sure fire why to get my aggots obliterated.

  7. Excellent write-up Chicko!

    Dang, I was hoping you'd undersell him. I've been keen on watching Port players this pre-season.
    Boak is on the short-list of potential mids to make my team. I will not be selecting Pendles or GAJ in my team next year.
    Considering a "Cheaper" premium starting line-up – this will allow me to load up more in the DEF and FWD lines…

    It is still early days though!

    • Chicko says:

      Thanks Dex! Interestingly, in 2014, I started without GAJ, brought him in R9 or R10 and rode his majestic point scoring wave for 6 weeks before getting belted by the Supercoach gods. It was a POD not to have him early and didn't really hurt me in the leagues or overall rank but I did have Pendles. I suspect my mid formation will be somewhat dictated on the price of GAJ and Pendles vs. the discount to players like Sloan, Boak, Heppell, Priddis et al. Can't wait for the prices to be released!

    • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

      TG no Pendles or Gaz. You must hate sleep! Fair enough on Pendles, but GAJ, you will come around mate. I was thinking the same thing at this time last year.

      • My mindset is – Pendles will get violated. Swan and Greenwood only real (big bodied) assistance, will get tagged.
        I heard that GAJ's shoulder is recovering slower than first thought – Not keen on paying overs of he is struggling/missing too much preseason.

        • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

          I wouldn't be too worried about GAJ not having had much of a preseason. I hope people don't pick him cause he will score 176 in round 1 with or without a preseason. I concur with your logic on Pendles. That's goiong to be a tough call. He did play half the season with a dodgy shoulder & still averaged 124 for the season.

          • throttlefinger says:

            Pricing will dictate if I have one or none this season. Players like Rockliff, Fyfe, and Selwood will be cheaper and may get you that extra def/fwd prems to more than compensate in points.

  8. Dools says:

    Nice Article Chicko.
    I traded him in for Fyfe R 22 as I wanted him from round 13/14 but could not summon up the testicular fortitude to go for it (plus I went Ebert for 100K cheaper for My mate Watson ) Ebert looked like he was climbing a ladder to SC glory (8 hungies in 12/13 rounds and 147 upon pick up well happy I was rewarded me with" I'm tired scores" for the next few rounds and then scored an unheard of 35 V Richmond thats right I said Richmond. That was it for me Chop Chop Got me a Keeper in Rory "The Slone Ranger" for that trade (19 Hungies for the Season!). I bring this up because……
    Boak like Ebert are in the cusp of brilliance both score well but rarely at the same time Boak ends up with 12 Tons, Ebert with 10 Tons . Ebert starts off well then fade Visa versa for Boak. Boak will be 27 but Ebert will be the Magic 25.
    So with Caution I endorse Both but I place Ebert ever so slightly ahead, JUST to start ATPIT Hmmm To the Fridge!!!

    • Chicko says:

      Love your work Dools. I admire the fact that you had the nurries and went for something different! How did you finish up in your leagues and overall? The 35 against Richmond should be investigated, as should Cotchin's bloody 65 against the Saints! Fair dinkum.

      • Dools says:

        Hey Chicko,
        I did okay finished in the top 6% for the year. I was very happy as I did most of me work Overseas and where I was…. I relied on Jocks Posts. Or someone to tell me what went on in a game and the round.
        I always look for POD as I carried Del Santos the year. He was awesome until the last…..
        Investigated the performance of Ebert…Subbed I think/hoped but I Liked the icecream and it was Carlton Draught!!! More research required on the advice of Keyboard and Next G device, Off to the fridge once again ….Bugger!!!!!

        • Chicko says:

          That's a magnificent effort Dools, particularly if you were overseas as you are at an informational disadvantage! Ice cream and Carlton Draught, has seen my undoing on many occasion!

  9. lostlarrikin says:

    First class Chicko and great insight.

    A tempting case for a walk up start but thinking upgrade a safer choice.
    Really keen to see how the Power guts shapes up next yr, especially with the emerging guys like Wines and Hartlett.
    I see these as the main competition for Boaky's points with Kornes and Ebert likely to plateau or decline.

    Expect to see a bit more of Newton (vest candidate) and also more game time for Kanye Mitchellson!

    • Chicko says:

      KANYEEEE MITCHEL-SON! I'm still not convinced on the samurai-looking man but hear on the emergence of Wines and Hartlett. I thought Wines had an outstanding year and finals campaign – the kid is an absolute beast.

  10. throttlefinger says:

    Hell's bells, that's a ripper of a review, Chicko! Boak is always high on both the r1 considerations and watch list yet never gets asked to dance. Supercoach Finals, on the other hand, he's always picked for reasons you mentioned.

    This season not sure if his status will change. First game vs Freo may make me reconsider. Could be a perfect M3 POD. Looking forward to wrestling with the Boak question again.

    • Chicko says:

      Too good Throttle! Thanks mate, appreciate it. Given Boak's emergence in an emerging team, it surprised me that he was in only 3% of teams, that coupled with his performances in big games certainly has me thinking. I'm a fan of being a contrarian, it works in investment markets, perhaps it can also work in the world of Supercoach. I already know I will tear myself apart this summer – do I go with the herd and go for a GAJ, Pendles 1-2 plus someone like a Selwood, or do I push against that desire and go Fyfe, Boak, Sloane, Priddis, Heppell….I don't know but what I do know is that I will spent countless hours deliberating it!

      • throttlefinger says:

        Well, you know we're cut from the same cloth…although you're made of a higher grade (i.e. my selection of Dunn). I like the thrill of taking calculate risks. Gives me a rush thinking the extra hours revealed one little insight that has a seismic effect. Didn't find it last season but shooting for it this season.

        My biggest flaw last season, and I'm not blowing smoke up ass here, was not running by options through the community. Getting the pros/cons makes a decision CONSIDERABLY less discomforting. And risky. So you and I will have plenty of time throwing our contrarian thoughts each other's way.

        • Chicko says:

          Throttle that type of dirty contrarian talk has me high on the arousal curve, luckily this is a M rated time slot with no kiddies on line. I look fwd to sharing thoughts my good brother.

          • throttlefinger says:

            HAHAHA. Triple X SC exchanges, my man. Chomping at the bit to start fleshing it all out with ya.

  11. I like Boak, but those sub 90 games are a huge killer. If he could iron those out of his game then he'd be an excellent guy to get in, but i'm not sure he'll be in my team at this stage. There are other guys from Port i'll be looking at first at this stage.

    • Chicko says:

      G'day Barron, who do you like from Port? As an expert on all things in Adelaide, keen to learn from your insight and wisdoms.

      • Hey Chicko,

        I currently have partly formed plans to unite the heated rivals or the Power and the Crows and form a Mega Powers tag team of Ollie Wines and Brad Crouch in my midfield.

        Think they've both got upwards mobility in their scores for 2015, taking a risk that they don't improve, but could be a winner if it works.

        • Chicko says:

          Top of the afternoon to you Barron, Wines continues to impress me, a pure gun. If his trajectory keeps going the same way then I reckon you are on a winner. If Crouch can get an uninterrupted run at it then the kid could be anything. I admire that you get set sentiment aside and bring two heated rivals together the benefit of your supercoach team. You are a better man than me Barron, I have found it very hard to bring in any Carlton player at anytime!

  12. Aaron says:

    Beware guys, was eating fish and chips at the beach the other day, gonna come back out of shape :P

  13. Phat Phuc says:

    Thanks again Chicko. I was seriously considering this guy until you pointed out the high number of sub 90 scores.

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