Supercoach 2015 – Taylor Walker

Filed in Adelaide, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 19, 2014 • views: 19373

ACL derailed 2013, impacted 2014. Will 2015 be the making of the man – or BURNMAN?

TG Footy Tracgic - Dexter

“Tex” Walker. Make no mistake – he is a beast. From debut through 2011; Tex was a so-so player at best. Enter 2012. Tex recorded a career best season. He almost doubled his previous best season goal haul, booting 63 in 2012 when his previous best was 35 – set in 2010. Tex only played 15 games in 2014, after being out for about 14 months recovering from an ACL injury which was sustained early in the 2013 season. From his 15 games in 2014 Tex booted 34 goals at 60.7% accuracy – his worst since 2010.

A change of coach and a few pre-seasons under his belt seemed to do wonders for Tex in 2012. He exploded out of the blocks – with 4 tons and 1 sub 80 score in his first 7 games; to average 95 (Can he mimic this in 2015). Of his 16 games in 2012, he broke the ton 10 times, and had only 3 sub 80 scores; averaging 100.2. I feel this is a more accurate analysis of Tex’s potential for 2015 – as his 2013 season was cut short when he wrecked his ACL in RD 5, robbing him of the remainder of the year and half of 2014.

2015 Price: $430,400
2015 Position: FWD
Games last season: 15
Average last season: 80.1
100+ games last season: 2
Sub 80 games last season: 9
Price range last season: $299k-$437k
Missed games last season: 7 (ACL)
Significant history: Averaged 100.2 in 2012 (fit), 69.4 in 2013 (ACL Interrupted)
Suspended for 5 games in 2012.2 in RD 7 for rough tackling; 3 in RD14 for the same thing.
Drafted at pick 75 in the 2007 national draft

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Most coaches will look at his 2014 season and write him off as a burn-man or an irrelevant player. I’m not. Look at his 2012 season. Uninterrupted preseason, new coach, Motivation & 10 tons from 16 outings. Tick. Can 2012 be a sign of things to come?

Now move to 2015. Tex seems to be over his ACL injury, there is another new coach, and I’ll bet; a burning desire to return to the highs of 2012 (hopefully without the suspensions!) Add another uninterrupted pre-season under his belt and he could return to relevance with a BANG!

One stat of note, Tex seems to score better in wins – although this is not always the case. In 2014, both of his tons came in wins, but so did 4 of his sub 80 scores. Tex averaged 91.13 in wins, and 67.43 in losses. If you see Adelaide win more in 2015 – Could this spur you?

Another good thing of note is his time on ground. Since 2012, excluding injury-hit and sub-affected games, he averages 90.5% TOG. Since 2012, he has been subbed twice, once for his ACL injury, the other for a rest. For a key forward, he accumulates the pill nicely. Since 2012, excluding his ACL affected game; Tex averages 14.4 disposals – nothing to sneeze at.

In the same time, Tex averages a tick over 6 marks a game – 30% of these being Contested. Tex favors kicking – this I like. But what I don’t like is his efficiency. Averaging 64% for 2014 isn’t horrible, but too many of his possessions are either not effective, or turnovers. Tex averages 3.1 Clangers a game. That’s 12 points a game lost to errant possessions. If Tex can up his efficiency and convert a few more goals – he could go beast again.

I’m wary of his inability to play a full season. The most games Tex has strung together in a single season is 19 (2012). In his first few years, fluctuating form saw Tex be dropped a few times and string together games at SANFL level. He missed 5 games in 2012 due to suspensions, and 2013/14 saw him miss 24 games due to his injury.

Can Tex play a full season in 2015?

RISK FACTORS

  • Key position forward – fluctuating scored.
  • Misses games.To both injury and suspension.
  • Clanger-King. 27% DE RD 12 2014. 6 clangers RD 19 2014.
  • New Coach is an unknown factor. Could be good, could be bad.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you were considering starting Tex it would be as a stepping stone player.

The only reason you would pick Tex, is hoping he starts 2015 with a BANG and quickly cash him in or upgrade him to a more consistent performer. Could he do a Nick Riewoldt a-la-2014?

THE GOOD

  • Can go LARGE – in 2012 he had 10 tons – High of 154. (146,133 in 2014)
  • Loves to kick. 66.6% of his disposals since 2012 being kicks.
  • Potential Point of Difference. I don’t think many will run ol’ Tex, due to his 2014 form.
  • New coach – Omen for 2015? 2012 worked good for him!

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Key position forward. Enough said.
  • Hasn’t played a full season yet. Suspension and injury risk.
  • New coach – unknown game plan. Will it affect delivery?

THE VERDICT

You may only need 5 games out of Tex, and BANG – trade him up to a premium or down to a bubble boy for an instant cash generation. If you see Adelaide win more of their pre-bye games than lose, he could be your man – as stated above, he does better in wins.

Interesting situation here; Adelaide have a new coach. I state this as a good and bad factor – because a new coach is an unknown factor, but Tex’s best year also came from a new coach!

Tex has had premium output before (100 avg 2012) – but also had an ordinary 2014. Right now – Tex is a no. But an injury free and dominant pre-season could sway me. 2015 structure will be the key.

Do you go an underpriced Swan and Tex instead of a gun like Parker and a rookie?

We won’t know our structure until prices and rookies are finalized. Will rookies be overpriced in 2015 like 2014? Or will they return to the cheap ways of the past?

A few things need to align for me to consider Tex Walker:

1. 2015 structure
2. Rookie Pricing
3. Pre-season.

If all three of these fall the right way, I may well select Tex in SoapOnARope in 2015. Right now though – it’s a….

NO

Terry Gallagher

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

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Comments (17)

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  1. throttlefinger says:

    Another stellar breakdown, Dex!

    I like Tex. But I feel his big 2012 seasons was also the result of having Tippett in the front line. Can see him doing better than last year but not as good as 2012. For the reasons you stated. All key position forwards are a risk.

    They are like SC bulimia. You get to dine on a bunch of big scores then force yourself to purge them out by getting injured or hitting a sub 80 run. Need to time bringing them in before they sit at the table and sell them off before the purge. Think Tex will be no different this year. 5 rounds then out!

    • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

      Agree throttle. Short term only if at all. If your planning to load up on your midfield then something has to give & you might need to sacrifice elsewhere. I don’t think I could stand having more than one KPF. And that spot will most likely go to Mitch Clark who will be ultra cheap! Super write up Dex. Without this article I would ruled a line through him. But in a few months I’ll be thinking about the 2012 season!

      • throttlefinger says:

        Pieman, who are your top 5 KPF for 2015? Clark is up there for sure. Darling?

        • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

          1: Clarke value to the max
          2: buddy at the peak if his powers again
          3: tex walker slightly undervalued
          4: Jesse hogan could be very cheap
          5: Jeremy Cameron contract year could explode

          • throttlefinger says:

            4 and 5 are SC sink holes. Agree 1-3. Think Reiwoldt may have another 105+ season left. Westoff could do a bit better with Ryder up front. And Hawkins could do better than Hogan, still more promise than anything.

          • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

            Hogan should be a basement priced rookie now. Not 200k. Could be an option. Apart from Clarke & maybe Hogan I doubt I’ll start with any premo priced KPF. Too much past pain! You really want a team that spends time in the midfield. That was my strategy this year & forever I’d say.

            • throttlefinger says:

              Very true. And very wise, Pieman. Probably going same way. Use as stepping stone like rookie.

        • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

          Darling nope. Too up & down like almost all of them

  2. Dools says:

    Good write up Dex
    I will be keeping an eye on Tex – He was given Best on Ground by Tripple M during GF week Started Drinking on the Brownlow nite and went on and on like the energizer bunny up to the GF Mad Monday LOL
    Tex maybe a make up player but I do not see keeper and if his scores go south well a rookie for 200K less can churn those numbers out.. No from me

  3. Phil says:

    Ripping article. I don't think it's a definite NO. You do a great job selling him actually,….For me it will probably come down to Adelaide's early draw. A few juicy games early and he is a good chance of making my team. Wouldn't say his only selection purpose is a stepping stone when he is capable of averaging 100, potential to be a keeper. Agree, a lot of things have to go right for this to be happen though.

  4. Cheers Fellas!

    I felt I had to go back to his pre-injury averaged to more accurately analyse Tex.
    I'm not big on KPFs, but something about Tex has me stirring in the loins…

    As with most players, pre-season is key!

  5. lostlarrikin says:

    Nice Work Dex.
    The Crabs (sorry I'm a port supporter) have definitely shed some height from their list in recent weeks, but still have a reasonable group of talls to shuffle up fwd.
    Will be interesting to see the dynamic if Tex, Jenkins, Pods and Lynch all play. Any of these guys can kick a bag if they're on song. Personally, I can't see them all playing at the same time but plenty of foil there to deflect the heat on Tex.

    The addition of Lowden is a curly one. Will he be used at all this season to give Sauce a spell?
    Not sure how he plays but would expect they would need him resting down back when not pinch hitting (rather than up fwd)

    Overall, if Adelaide get a soft opening draw then Tex could be that POD that gets u off to a flier.
    I do suspect that there will be a few tastier morsels (with dpp) at around that price range to tempt the masses.

    Probably too risky for mine. Pass.

    • BarronVonCrow says:

      Can't see Pods playing much, Tex, Jenkins, Pods and Lynch is too tall up forward, but that would depend on how healthy Lynch is at the start of the year.

      Lowden will be Jacobs insurance, Walsh has already said he didn't see Lowden in the 22 ATM, of course that can change between now and Round 1, but yea, could be used to give Sauce a game or two off since he hasn't missed a week of footy in 3 years.

  6. BarronVonCrow says:

    Love Tex, but i'll need to see the Crows in pre-season before I consider locking him in. Most of their forward 50 entries last year were just the absolute drizzling shits (I swear I will lose it if I see one more Crow player bomb it on Betts' head when he has 2 guys on him). If they can get back to quick entries and forget about this "only Inside 20's" stuff that Sando had going then he could be worth a quick pump and dump. And likewise, if he starts off slow and goes down, then he could be a nice target too.

    • throttlefinger says:

      I'm begging for you to penn a new weekly segment called, "Pump 'n' Dump." Flash insights. 500 words max.

      It's waiting for you. Take the blue pill, Neo.

  7. General Soreness says:

    Another great write up Tex, even though you list him as a No you provided a compelling case for. Notwithstanding that I just cant bring myself to pick him at that price perhaps if he was $100K less, the dice may have been rolled.