Supercoach 2015 – Trent Cotchin

Filed in Richmond, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 15, 2014 • views: 2687

Will you cop another year like 2014 from Cotchin?

Chicko - elite fantasy analystTrent bloody Cotchin. I know he is popular, and I know he has done well in the past, I know he has just won the Jack Dyer Medal for a third time for the club’s B&F, I know he spends too much time manicuring his hair to within an inch of its natural life but I think he lets you down too many times. Insert abuse here tiger fans but before you do, stick with me for a while.

In 2013 and 2014, you were able to buy him at a significant discount to his starting price. Perhaps that’s also the way to play Trent in 2015? Wait for the dip in price then snaffle him. Trent, whilst incredibly durable (he did play all 22 games in 2014, 2012 and 2011), is too inconsistent during the course of a season. He goes BIG when you don’t need him, and when you do need him, he goes bloody SMALL. I don’t know exactly what it is; he gets a lot of the pill (ranked 8th in the comp for total disposals) but I suspect it’s a combination of his disposal efficiency and lower contested possession numbers that lets him down in the world of Supercoach. An average of 102 is not enough to justify the ride for a prime midfield position in your team.

I know there will be plenty that start with him in 2015, he is in his prime Supercoach years aged 24 but I think wait for him to inevitably fall before you contemplate buying – look at his salary range for proof on just how cheap he can get. I suspect there will be better buys and better PODs for your starting team (ie. Jordan Lewis, Rory Sloane, Dyson Heppel, Brownlow Priddis to name but a few).

2015 Price: $546,500
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 101.68
100+ games last season: 9 (Highest score of 168 came after Lloydy publicly questioned his manhood)
Sub 80 games last season: 3 (Significantly he had 5 scores in the 80’s)
Price range last season: $464k-$579k
Missed games last season: 0, Zero
Significant history: Jack Dyer Medal winner 2014, 2012 and 2011
Captain of the club since 2013
Has averaged over 100 over the past 4 years (100, 116, 106 and 102)
Ranked 4th in the comp for Total Kicks
Ranked 5th in Total Frees for
Ranked 15th in total Contested Possessions

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The Cotch has been in many a supercoach team for the past few years (including mine), and was in just under 20% of teams in 2014 underscoring his popularity. Cotchin’s durability is a huge fillip – a guy that stays on the park is guaranteed points, so this goes massively in his favour – it may save you a trade and may give you a score against an opponent who cops a donut, thus edges you in front in a tight fantasy football contest. However, I expect more of a prime midfielder than just turning up.

RISK FACTOR

In a word – variability. Trent can go large but, as I’ve said, can also spud it up big style. Cotchin may win you a game when he goes large but he will undoubtedly cost you a game when he has a sub-100 night, which was 36% of games in 2014 (8 out of 22 in 2014). 36% fellow coaches – that is one in every three games where you can count on him not cracking the ton.

SELECTION PURPOSE

I wouldn’t start with Cotchin, but would look to selectively add him in should his form cause a price dip. If he is cheap to start with, I would not be afraid to use him as a stepping stone to an ultra-premium midfielder. I am sure some would select him from the start, and in that case, he would have to be a keeper for those teams.

THE GOOD

  • Durability – The Bouffant will play a lot of games as per his 2014, 2012 and 2011 seasons where he didn’t miss a game
  • Primed to go large – Cotchin is 24 and has just won the club’s B&F for the third time
  • Finds the footy – ranked 25th for average disposals (but boosted to be ranked 8th in total disposals due to his durability)

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Cotchin’s record against Top 8 teams is appalling – only twice breaking 100
  • Can go missing in games – 8 scores of sub 90 is hard to stomach for a prime midfielder
  • He lets you down when you need him the most!

THE VERDICT

I’m angry with you Trent. I’m angry with the man you are, and the man you think you are. You’ve burned me one too many times and cost me a grand final berth with your 65 against the Saints. For me, you are in the same basket as Higgins and Cyril. Stop focusing on the bloody hairdo and start focusing on using the pill wisely.

Perhaps the elimination final humiliation will spur him on, but you could have said that last year when they were also beaten by Carlton – he just doesn’t seem to want it enough for my liking. If only he had a bit of Ant Miles in him, the kid could be anything. With that said, I am sure Cotchin will come out and have a blinder in 2015 but he is not for me and will not feature in Chicko’s Chumps………..unless he gets crazy cheap – what can I say, I am a sucker for a bargain.

NO

What’s your view on Cotchin in 2015?

Cheers Chicko

Twitter: @Chicko_LCS

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Comments (21)

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  1. throttlefinger says:

    Spot on Chicko. Took a chance on Lids over Cotchin. Neither was great. Other than Miles and arguably Ellis, not a lot of rays of SC sunshine on the Tiges. He's a tease and pompadoured burnman in waiting. Your excellent stat about not showing up against top 8 teams is the most distressing. Agree wholehearted, my man. AVOID!

    • Chicko says:

      Thanks Throtts! This beautiful game is about picking the men to avoid as much as anything else. The Tiger fans love Cotchin, so if they select him and you avoid him, then I think you are already in front! BURNCOTCHMAN.

      • throttlefinger says:

        Hahaha. And I hope it happens again this season. His price will lure in many a sucker.

      • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

        Yep I’m almost certain he will be on the burnman float come end of season parade 2015! He should shave his head & have a cucumber gently inserted pre game! Fire the [email protected] up!

        • Chicko says:

          If he shaves his head Pieman, it would be a sign that he is about to take the game seriously and would be a leading indicator that he could explode. Surely he is weighed down by the amount of hair product required to keep that bouffant in check?

    • General Soreness says:

      Lids might go DPP this year Mid/Fwd!

      • throttlefinger says:

        May be worth considering. Did a bang up job at half forward, basically helped them get to the Finals. May be worth a write-up you think, General. Just give the order.

        • General Soreness says:

          Your such a wordsmith you could do a write up on Relton Roberts and people would pop him on the watchlist, would love to see a Lids write up.

          • throttlefinger says:

            Can you feel the margins of this page starting to rip? That's from my ego swelling off your comment, General. Guess it shall be so.

  2. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Love it Chicko. I rolled the dice with Cotchin in rnd 1. Only to slaughter him a few weeks later. What a frustrating player he is. Talent to the max but just doesn’t consistently deliver. I agree with your opinion of only getting him if he gets mega cheap. M9 player end of season cover for mine. Soooo much pain! Quality write up fella!

    • Chicko says:

      Thanks Pieman, I like your thinking on M9 cover, that would be a promotion for him in 2015! I've had him twice in the last two years and vowed to myself never again, but I could go with him as M9. Like it Pieman.

  3. lostlarrikin says:

    Nice assessment Chicko.
    That 36% sub ton stat is pretty damning.

    2013 was not much better from the quiffed bumblebee.

    Looking back to 2012, he had an avg of 116. That yr he had better DE, more marks, more tackles and more frees for. I don't really follow Cotch all that much but these stats tell me that he is not an inside player anymore.

    The emergence of Miles and Ellis point to his role not changing for 2015 either.

    Burn, Bury, Avoid!

    • Chicko says:

      Could not agree more lostlarrikin, I viewed his 2012 with interest, but that was 2 years ago and I was expecting that average in 2014, but you are right in that the Tigers are now using other players as inside mids, so unless he takes on the role in 2015, I suspect his averages are permanently impaired.

  4. General Soreness says:

    Great write up Chicko and a convincing one at that. Two massive stats you pointed out being the 36% and his inability to score above 100 against top sides. He is going onto my avoid list. The only way I could see him making my side is with a real soft final four games and a significant drop in price.

    • Chicko says:

      Thanks General, both damning stats indeed, hence why I will be giving his massive hairdo the wide berth it deserves, unless he gets crazy cheap and can be a M9 cover as suggested by Pieman. Thanks again my man.

  5. Leaping Larry says:

    Great work Chicko. He also seems to lack the bigger bodies around him that could provide support. Well summed up, and I too will be giving him a miss in 2015, unless of course I find the time again for a "B" team using another email account. Who would have known that such a great footballing brain as yours could come out of Noble Park?

    • Chicko says:

      Thanks Leaping Larry! Born and raised in Springvale but primary schooled in the great suburb of Noble Park. Please identify yourself my good man – you have me wracking my brain. Clearly you are a St Anthony's alumni, and possibly a St John's alumni also. I have narrowed it down to that. Clue me up mate!

  6. Dools says:

    Excellent write up Chicko,
    He burned me bad 2 seasons ago when I thought he would rip the game apart and he limped from sub 80’s to Sub 80’s. The man was a stain and I watched it all unfold before my eyes week in week out. Out came the blade and chop chop was “The Crotch” then he went on to play consistently but never again he cost me a trade when he should have been a lock. Same same with Lids. Both of them have “nice hair” So thats it …Nice hair. Me no picky for the Kats same for you “Tom Cat Hawkins” Nice hair equals …Not concentrating on the pill!
    Vent over..Keyboard is smoking BURNMEN

    • Chicko says:

      You are a gentleman and a scholar Dools, thanks mate. I can feel your pain, I have lived your pain and no more hair men in our teams! That is my oath leading into 2015. You are right in that there is negative correlation between too much hair and finding the pill – you can't have both.

  7. Dools says:

    Agreed small but significant sample to proove the point GAJ, and N Jones Not worried about hair getting messed up unfortunatley “Suicide Selwood” is the fly in the ointment has hair but i think he thinks “Chick’s dig scars!!”. Teen wolf has hair but he does nt even brush it on matchday!!! More Carlton Draught required to ponder this conumdrum. Whoohoo Research

  8. WombatsFC says:

    Good call on not starting with him Chico. He's sure to drop 40k before the bye.

    Do you think his ave might suffer with the continued growth of Miles and Ellis?