Supercoach 2015 – Will Minson

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach 2015, Western Bulldogs by on October 12, 2014 • views: 2437

Was 2013 a real breakout, or was 2014 his true measure?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterIn 2013, Will Minson announced himself as a Supercoach star. He had a stellar season, registering career-highs in almost all key ruck statistics. 2014 wasn’t as good. Minson started the year at Patersons – tag-teaming with Campbell and he had a shocker (68 pts). But from rounds 2-19 Minson registered all 7 of his tons and no under 80 scores. In this time – with the exclusion of the RD 6 game v Adelaide; he rucked solo. He travelled to Metricon (104), Skoda (87) and Adelaide Oval (89) in this time.

Statistically, 2014 wasn’t horrible; but it did fall a fair way off 2013’s lofty heights. He was down on almost all stats from 2013. Minson did however, reach a career-high average tackles. Only recently; it has been revealed Minson suffered a debilitating back-injury during the 2014 off-season. This kept him from participating in pre-season until Post-Christmas. Taking into account this news; Minson’s season wasn’t as bad as we all thought. Barring his round 1 train-wreck; Minson averaged 100.3 until the bye. This injury revelation has made me even less likely to consider the big fella.

2015 Price: $501,400
2015 Position: RUCK
Games last season: 21
Average last season: 93.29
100+ games last season:  7
Sub 80 games last season:  3
Price range last season: $417k-$616k
Missed games last season: 1 – Omitted RD 22
Significant history: Suspended for 2 games in 2004; for striking Cameron Ling.1 match in 2012 (Club imposed); for offensive comments to Danyle PearceDrafted at pick 20 in the 2002 national draft

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The most alarming stat; Minson doesn’t play well with others. When sharing the load; Minson averaged 75 – for 3 sub 80 games and 0 tons. Solo; Minson averaged 100.6 – 0 sub 80 scores and 7 tons. A good stat to take note of; Wins and Losses generally had little bearing on his SC output. He averaged 97 SC points from the 7 wins; and 91.5 SC points in the 14 losses he played in. He scored 3 tons in losses and 4 tons in wins. Minson had 2 sub 80 scores in losses and 1 sub 80 in wins. He shared the ruck load 5 times in losses and 1 in wins.

Minson’s Disposal Efficiency could do with some work. His 2014 average was only 58%, he had a 4 games with 71% or more efficiency, the rest were sub 70%; with a low of 29%. As a ruckman, DE% is not the be-all and end-all; but Clangers do take points off. Minson was no stranger to clangers either; averaging 3 a game. Minson’s Tackling and Clearances aren’t anything to sniff at; averaging 3.9 and 4.1 respectively. Minson isn’t a spud in the hit-out category though – he averaged 36 hitouts in 2014; with a high of 55 in round 3 against a Maric-less Richmond.

My concerns with Minson; he doesn’t do well when sharing the load, his disposal efficiency isn’t great and he doesn’t take enough marks or kick enough goals. His injury plagued him all season, interrupted his pre-season – and it has also been revealed; Minson cannot sit for a long period of time. This is another risk: how many long distance games will the Bulldogs have in 2015? His Rd 1 train wreck from 2014 was at Patersons. Getting there is a 4 hour flight. I’m not sold on him as a good enough prospect to start with or even keep. At approximately 500k in 2015; there are better prospects out there.

RISK FACTOR

  • Sharing ruck duties Minson averaged 75 SC points in 2014
  • Disposal efficiency not great
  • Doesn’t kick many goals or take many marks
  • Minson cannot sit for long periods – How will he far for away games?

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you have the plums or you see him rucking solo, or his injury issues over – jump onboard. Only consider him for a lock if Campbell is ruled out long term – and there is proof of his injury being fixed.

THE GOOD

  • Rucking solo; Minson averaged 100.6 in 2014. Thrives on solo duties.
  • Dominates hit-outs. More hit-outs = higher chance for hit-outs to advantage (3pts each).
  • Wins/Losses generally didn’t affect Minson’s SC output = good news. I don’t see the Bulldogs winning more than 8 games in 2015.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Shared ruck duties = higher likelihood of a lower SC score
  • Efficiency could be higher. 58% efficiency for 2014 wasn’t horrible, but a higher efficiency will help achieve a better SC score!
  • Doesn’t kick enough goals (avg 0.2 in 2014), or generate enough scoreboard assists (avg 0.3).
  • Injury risk – Will he play away games? Rest risk?

 THE VERDICT

I’ll be watching Minson ‘s injury prognosis over the off season, and monitor Tom Campbell. If he spuds it, or is out with an LTI – AND Minson is showing no signs of his back injury. I’d consider Minson. Even then I’d only consider him.

Burnt a few in 2014, I don’t plan on being another victim. Not to mention this injury cloud hanging over him.

Sorry Minson – I can’t find a place for you in SoapOnARope in 2015. Especially at a 500k asking price.

 

NO

 

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

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Comments (11)

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  1. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    I think there will be plenty of better ruck options next year Dex. There will be plenty of value elsewhere. Having the big Skin Flute in your team will be a significant POD.

  2. Donavan says:

    Good write-up Dexter.

    I agree, there is no room in my team for Minson, regardless of form. Too many better and cheaper options. For me it will be a choice out of NicNat, Luenberger, Ryder (if with GCS), and Kreuzer.

  3. throttlefinger says:

    Rockin' write-up Dex. Really spells it out the promise and reality of throwing the Fluter in. Pass for me as well. Need more reliability in the rucks. And with all the doggie drama, anything over $500K will take a lot of consideration.

  4. General Soreness says:

    Nice work Dex, pass for me, 1 good season does not make a supercoach R1 or R2, especially given options with similar upside at significantly cheaper prices.

  5. Dools says:

    Nice work Dex.
    Hmm I remember Sauce Jacobs from 2013. Had a Barry Crocker but I went with him in 2014 from the start and I was handsomley rewarded thru out the year. (Coach Got the flick)
    Could Skinflute be the same?
    Given the bloodletting at the doggies and an astonshing ammount of coin $7M given to Boyd (over 7 years) to come on down (plus agreeing to pay $1M of former Captain R. Griffens salery over 4 years)
    The Doggies must know something in the footy dept. but that said who will coach them now….and what footy will he want from his players and will Skinflute rise from the turd he laid down in 2014. Like Big Sauce the year before? I think he has to as the Dogs will be ruthless with under achivement. The pressure is on financialy and a new mean streak to the Dogs could be the difference in performance.
    More “Research required” thats Code for Carlton Draughts

  6. Phat Phuc says:

    Thanks Dexter, after that I don't need to look any further into this victim of Julia Gillards Labour.

  7. Seaford Scouse says:

    Nice Dex, not even on the WL for me at the mo with all the options available in the ruck div and that’s before the injury reveal. As Dools points out though change of lead down at the kennel could make for interesting changes on field also. Still a no from me as a starter though.

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