Supercoach 2015 – Ryan Griffen

Filed in Greater Western Sydney, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015, Western Bulldogs by on October 9, 2014 • views: 3904

The captain always goes down with the ship.

General Soreness

Unless that Captain is Ryan Griffen.

What does it mean when your captain requests a trade to GWS?  It means potential trouser bursting supercoach GOLD!

If he gets to GWS, I am predicting that you cannot win supercoach in 2015 if you do not start with Griffen who is likely to punch out the elite style numbers of 2013 given that he is surrounded by more young guns than Emilio Estevez.

Whilst his first year as captain of the Doggies 2014 was forgettable by Ryan Griffen standards knocking out a sub 100 point average of 98.7 after averaging over 106 for the past three seasons and a career best average of 116.4 in 2013 many expected much of the same in 2014.  As fortune would have it, many supercoachers managed to avoid including him in their starting line ups due to his ongoing back tightness injury which forced him to miss round 1.  Those that rolled the dice I am sure were left lamenting his form after paying the hefty opening price of $627,700 which by round 17 had dropped to $451,100.

The all important data shows:

2015 Price: $530,700
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 19
Average last season: 98.7
100+ games last season: 9
Sub 80 games last season: 5
Price range last season: $451K – $627K
Missed games last season: 1 games round 1 (back tightness)1 game round 15 (back tightness)1 game round 17 (omitted but read back tightness)
Significant history: Averaged 116.4 in 2013, 106 in 2012, 108.2 in 2011 and93.8 in 2010 from 20,20,21 & 22 games respectively.2013 All Australian2005 Rising Star nomineePriority Pick #3, 2004 National Draft

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Some may suggest that 2014 was the beginning of the end? So what do you do if you’re worried about the end being nigh? Request a trade to GWS, aim to get a big arsed contract and a be in a team full of youthful exuberance to rekindle that lost fire similar to those nasal sprays advertised after midnight.

It is clearly not if his last game was anything to go by pumping out a career high 189 against the might of GWS.  He still managed to post 9 games of 100+, 4 of those coming in his last 6 games after missing round 17.

Clearly the back injury hampered his preseason and affected his season proper, having missed the NAB Challenge matches from early February with back tightness it appeared he was a week by week prospect until he was ruled out for round 1 before clearly being rushed back in underdone for round 2 pumping out a measly 63 followed up by a tear jerking 49 with only 11 and 12 touches respectively.  It was this injury that forced him to miss round 15 and most likely the round 17 match also even though he was listed as an omission against the gold coast suns.

In 2014 he only had four games with 30 plus possessions compared with 11 in 2013 with his average possession dropping from 28.9 to 22.9 per game (6 possessions less, 3 of which were contested).  This drop in average possessions is almost entirely due to his injury affected games 11, 12 and 14 touches to go with the Crowley’d 10.

Despite his injury in 2014 he has averaged more supercoach points per possession than in 2013 which, is remarkable considering.

Historically Griffen has averaged between 3.94 (2012) and 4.5 (2011) supercoach points per possession. So his 2013 and 2014 results of 4.02 and 4.31 respectively fall within his normal parameters.

So what can we take from this?  For every additional possession we can expect and increase in his scoring to be in the vicinity of four supercoach points.  He has averaged 22+ possession per game since 2009 and 24+ from 2011 – 2013.  And for every 30+ possession game you can expect a score of 120+, he went 30+ 11 times in 2013 for 9 120+ scores, enough to burst even the strongest levi zipper and the 501’s don’t stand a chance.

So it is clear that whilst he was set back by injury which affected his averages he was still good enough to produce good supercoach output.  So if we ignore his injury affected games of rounds 2, 3 & 14 he averaged 107.31 with an average disposal count of 24.

Now let’s factor in a move to a club housing the likes of ball getters such as Ward, Greene, Treloar, Shiel etc and the front of your Chino’s start to bulge without the need of your best pair of footy socks.

RISK FACTOR

It is evident that with Griffen that for him to go 105+ he needs to average around 24 possessions per game.  With an up and coming midfield at the Doggies or in any trade to GWS there is a risk that they may reduce his possession count and thus his supercoach output.  Whilst this may appear to be a risk it may also be a massive positive and provide him with even greater possessions and output.  Time will tell.

Age shall not weary them, Griffen will turn 29 next season and given the bout of back tightness last year there is some concern that there is an ever increasing injury risk.  However history including last season shows that he is a resilient bugger who keeps turning up and pumping out 100+ supercoach scores with the odd trouser stretching 140+ monster.

SELECTION PURPOSE

At his expected starting price and scoring output bring him in and throw away the key.  A potential strategy is to start him in your side instead of another premo at a higher price and look to swoop on overpriced premos (aka Rockliff) toward the bye rounds.

THE GOOD

  • Proven jet
  • Starting price of an upcoming midfielder for a proven jet cannot be ignored.
  • 105+ from 2011-2013

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Potential for injury and/or team mates to affect his scoring output
  • Everyone will have him
  • Watch preseason with note if Doggies trade Will “Skinflute” Minson and any resultant effect on midfield output.
  • Can drop in the odd stinker sub 70 score

THE VERDICT

Regardless of where he plays, Lock him in Eddie! Expect him to go 105+ again in 2015, proven jet at a discount.

YES

What’s your call on Griffen in 2015?

General Soreness

Twitter: @GenSorenessSC

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Comments (34)

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  1. Matt says:

    Good article, and I'm sure my SuperCoach is going to pay for this, but I won't even consider touching that treacherous Griffen ever again.

    • General Soreness says:

      Cheers Matt, I'm sure there will be a few that don't select him on principle. His season next year will tell us if his move has angered the supercoach gods or not. He is a likely starter for the Soreness, although I am starting to look a bit GWS heavy, havent had this many GWS guys on my radar since the first year when they were all rookies.

  2. Derek says:

    even at $530k he is too pricey for me. I might consider him under $490k.

  3. Kev says:

    Bye, bye libba 2015…

  4. Chicko says:

    Absolute gold General!

  5. throttlefinger says:

    Love the article Gen but Griff is a hard pass. Injury concerns, price and now his head is in other places. He's an old 29 and day of 22 game seasons are over. Be lucky to see him 20 games this year. Like the guy but feel it's MaCrae and Libba's team. And GWS, of all their positions, don't need mid help. Got a developing side and they are working strong together.

    Agree with Derek. If under $500K, he becomes interesting. Anything above and Griff turns hot to the touch.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      What about at GWS?

      • throttlefinger says:

        Won't happen. And if it did, can't see him having much of an impact, SC wise.

        • THE SALTSHAKER says:

          No, i shoulda finished my question properly. I was referring to whether or not you were excited at prospect of Griffen at GWS

          • throttlefinger says:

            Ha. My bad, Salty.

            Excited? Not really. If it were Beams, I'd be excited. (naturally) I'm on the cup half empty regarding Griff. Demanding a trade out after an injury-marred, subpar year. Nah. Hope it comes to pass. And can't even imagine what the Doggies would want. Probably make it not worth it.

          • throttlefinger says:

            Well Salty, it has happened. I wasn't a big Boyd fan to begin with (think Cam McCarthy has more to offer). So to get a seasoned player and a pick 6 is not bad. I'm hoping Griff's body has healed and he can take some, nay, lot of the weight off Ward, Treloar, Greene and Shiels. Should be an interesting year, my man.

  6. WombatsFC says:

    Ooops somebody must have forgotten to blow the siren.

    Bloody hell you blokes we should be sharing info about nude beaches and cheap beer until November at least.

    I went away to the bush for a while to recover from my premature excitement after round 22 and postulate the physics and/or dimensional repercussions of another Hawthorn flag at a quantum level.

    When I got back I came here expecting to find additional support and information on recovering from the massacre that was seasons end from my fellow followers of "Jock of the Peninsula" and maybe a few cheap beer offers from opportune sponsors.

    Instead I find that you blokes have all gone nuts and are over exciting your arousal curves all over the place.

    I hope Jock had the bungalow windows closed.

  7. WombatsFC says:

    In deference to 'Mental As' week on ABC1 I will participate.

    I appreciate you educated opinion General but I can't see Griff gettin anywhere near Wombats 2015.
    Griff has burnt me so many times he has erased my memory of any comparison burn man. When ya don't have him he stars when ya do have he goes on holiday or to hospital.

    Yep he has a great ceiling, he has proven he can pump out 3 or 4 monsters in a row, and he will be significantly cheaper than his potential.
    BUT he is exactly the type of players that caused half of you whingeing pussies to pack your undies with steaming James Hirds at the pointy end of 2014.

    I'll be putting him the "Talk him up to Smartarses" file

    • General Soreness says:

      Thanks for the Feedback WombatFC. It has been interesting to date all the different articles and opinions, it what makes this community great. On Griffen, I have rarely owned him, however this year at his price I am more than tempted cannot deny he would be a pretty handy M7-8. Having said that Swallow will be cheaper than Griffen doesn't have as high a ceiling but is a consistent producer. For those looking at fallen premo's.

  8. Donavan says:

    Top article General.

    I have never had Griffin in my supercoach teams, and I wont be getting him in now.

    He may appreciate in value by upto $100,000k if he turns back the clock, and plays like the premo he has been. But even if he did I would take the cash and run, and spend it on a solid premo.

    Griffin's risk of injury worries me too much, and his value tends to dive, as he tries to play through injuries, as opposed to miss games and retain his SC value. He just plays too much when he is not-fit to play.

    There will be rookies that will appreciate $100,000k in the first 8 weeks, so I would much rather pick a top rookie, then upgrade to a rock solid premo (maybe one that has depreciated somewhat), then punt on Griffin.

    I would never feel safe having to rely on Griffin to get me a SC win.

    • General Soreness says:

      Thanks Donovan, his injury risk cannot be ignored and those that had him 2014 are probably cursing him for playing through injury and those that held onto him are blessing him for his 189. Supercoach is such a fickle mistress which is why she is loved by so many.

  9. WombatsFC says:

    I understand that with a bloke of my age and life history the wisdom can often seem confused. But in this instance the message is crystal clear.

    The Griffen is a Mythical creature that adorns the logo of my two cars. I can't afford to keep both on the road and have to decide which to keep. One is a 2001 9-5 Aero the other is a newer 9-5 Wagon.

    My guru specialist mechanic loves the wagon he reckons that in 30 years its one of only a handful of cars that he's seen that doesn't leak something after 100,000kms.
    Last month the wagon took me and everything I needed to live in and explore some of the most remote areas of Victoria, including 3.6mtr inflatable, solar panels and electric boat motor.
    The Wagon is the obvious choice for my lifestyle.
    In Car Years the Aero is older than me and, it doesn't accomodate my desired lifestyle.

    I was thinking that Ryan is like the Aero. Still capable of incredible scores that win big supercoach games but the 4-speed can't match the 5 and 6 speed transmissions of the current generation. For the Bulldogs he's an obvious keeper but they wont be goin offroad to the high country of the final 8. For supercoach we need someone who can survive the occaisonal dirt track without causing $1,300 damage to the spoiler.

    But I was wrong.

    So I'm going to sell the Wagon, get a cheaper one and, keep the Aero.

    The Aero is rock solid butt kicking monster masquerading as a lawn bowls transporter. It's a Glass headlighted, Garrett turbo'd 4-speed auto legend from the final chapter of the tattooed and pierced swedish supermodel of the car industry.

    Ryan doesn't have tattoos so he is obviously the Wagon and the message that life has delivered is NO get someone cheaper and use the savings on a legend.

  10. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    I rode the Griffin train most of the season. When I needed him to stand up in the GF he did. Monster score! It’s a maybe at best for next season

    • General Soreness says:

      Was that train on rails, at a theme park, commonly referred to as a roller coaster? His 189 got more than a few people home. I had already completed my best Tomic impresonation, going out in straight sets with little more than a whimper.

  11. General Soreness says:

    Griffen may not be going anywhere, apparently McCartney to resign. Libba back on radar??

  12. Toddy says:

    I have no doubt Griffen will be a great pick up in 2015, but personally I will be picking up Ward in my team as Griffen will get the tag every week mean while Ward will be carving up. Also would like to note Griffen should never have been captain, Boyd passed it on to the man he thought best fitted the role and Ryan has basically spat in his and the clubs face..

  13. Phat Phuc says:

    Great Call a better tip than Sir tony becoming the first President of earth. Now that he's escaped the mess that Julia Gillards Labour created at the Bulldogs Griff is sure to prosper in a Liberal NSW.