Supercoach 2015 – Josh Caddy

Filed in Geelong, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 9, 2014 • views: 18353

Burnman or…..?

General SorenessThere is a saying that you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink! 2014 was the year, the General is the horse and the weight of numbers in the community made me drink! Those in the community would be well aware that I would tell anyone thinking of Caddy to stay away from this false idol. I wasn’t rapt in the kid who at AFL level had very average disposal and appeared to be an only slightly better than average locater of the pill. In hindsight it would have been a nice early POD to not select Caddy.

One little sip from the Caddy cup left a bitter taste in my mouth that could not be washed away despite the best efforts from the crowd at Austin Nichols. Caddy was proving for many to be the burnman of 2014.

Starting the season with 81, 73, 53, 24 he then had the audacity to break his foot at training consigning him to a 9 week holiday. Returning with a couple of vest affected games Caddy then went onto pump out the next 8 games at an average of 97.5 including 3 scores above 100 (112, 121, 140). It also includes a sub affected 50 when he came on in the final term knocking out 8 touches, 1 goal and 5 tackles. Removing this score his average improves to 104.2. He was disappointing from a supercoach score perspective in the finals loss to Hawthorn but was outstanding in the loss to North racking up another 121 point game.

All averages below exclude 2 finals.

2015 Price: $414,300
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 14
Average last season: 77.1
100+ games last season: 3 (not including finals 1 @ 121)
Sub 80 games last season: 6 (not including finals 1 @ 48) (4 of 6 starting in the green vest).
Price range last season: $245K – $423K
Missed games last season: 9 games rounds 5-13 with a broken foot
Significant history: Averaged 77.1 in 2014, 60.3 in 2013, 61.5 in 2012,
57.5 in 2011
Drafted at pick 1, 7 overall in the 2010 national draft
2010 All Australian U/18
2010 TAC Cup captain for Northern Knights

 

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His start to the 2014 season may well be ignored for the following reasons:

  • He did not have a full preseason at the start of 2014
  • His captain kicked him in the head in Round 1
  • The 24 points in round 4 was sub affected when he came on late in the third quarter

Whilst I remain of the opinion his disposal skills are not great they are vastly improved on what I had seen prior to his resumption late in 2014. Currently he doesn’t find the pill near enough to go premo averaging 16.7 per game in 2014. However four games were sub affected removing these his average was 19.7 still unders in my opinion especially given his disposal efficiency. Interestingly in 4 or his last 5 games including the final he had 24, 24, 26 and 28.

His disposal efficiency has increased from 59.7% in 2013 to 68.9% in 2014 clearly they are improving his disposal at the cattery. I expect he will be starting alongside his captain at most bounces in 2015. For the record the captain went at 25.6 disposals per game at 76.2%.

RISK FACTOR

He plays a contested style of game which may result in missing games through injury.
He has been inconsistent across his AFL career to date, only remedying that in the latter half of 2014. I have serious concerns about his ability to provide consistently high Supercoach output, without him tossing in the odd sub 80 and worse sub 60 scores thrown in. If those magicians at the cattery can get his disposal efficiency up even further and he finds a little more of the pill the scores will follow.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If he retains his DPP status he will be one of those prized genuine midfielders that you can pop into your forward line and is likely to be a solid pick at his price and potential output despite his risks. If he loses his DPP which is what I predict will occur, at the price and known output there will be better options to put into your midfield in the long term. Depending on your strategy he may be useful as a future upgrade option but again there will be better at the price (read: Ryan Griffen).

THE GOOD

Contested ball winner and loves to cuddle the opposition which would ordinarily ensure elevated Supercoach point scoring in low possession games but…( – see downside).

  • A major player in the midfield of a top 8 and usually top 4 side which doesn’t hurt when the “impact on game” weightings are applied.
  • Can go large(ish) with scores of 121 (x2), 140 in 2014.
  • If DPP will be a pure mid with forward eligibility = supercoach gold.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Doesnt get the ball enough and with a poor disposal efficiency his potential scoring output is affected.
  • Inconsistent history and when he crashes, he BURNS! 53 Rnd 2 2014, and 48 in QF 2014 for example.
  • I predict he will lose his DPP status this year.

THE VERDICT

The potential ultimate burnman of 2014 turned into a gem in the latter half of the year after missing through injury. His 2015 may cement him as a burnman or prove that he has what it takes to deliver good verging on premo output. Watch his preseason with interest.

I expect his 2015 to be better but do not see a scoring average of 100+ in his future. I expect him to average 90-95 as a pure mid without the DPP status. If that’s the case” move along there is nothing to see here”. If DPP status is retained consider starting him in your forward line at the risk of taking some low scores but with the potential for him to go large on occasions.

I doubt he will make it into the General’s final side but then again, I’ve trotted down this road before.

Retain DPP – CONSIDER / YAY
NO DPP – NEIGH

What’s your call on Josh Caddy in 2015?

General Soreness

Twitter: @GenSorenessSC

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Comments (16)

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  1. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Interesting General. Glad I never had him this year. But he could explode one day. Very risky pick. Nonetheless we can’t dismiss many at this stage. With the exception of serial burnmen! He’s not in that category just yet.

    • General Soreness says:

      Does Shaun "Burnman" Higgins say in the category given his trade? Might even make an interesting article for someone!

  2. Chicko says:

    Great work General. I watched the finish to his year with interest. He did burn me this year, but like Dusty Martin, sometimes its worth persisting with him for his breakout year – 2015 could be it.

    • General Soreness says:

      Thanks Chiko, I think there will be a lot of people with the same idea re breakout. But as INP states, very risky pick.

  3. throttlefinger says:

    Had Caddy last year and had the same searing sensations, General. Caddy has all the tools just missing the extra gear. Games like against the Roos tease you that he "might" have it. Then next game he does a squat'n'dump. Even as a DPP feel the "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice…" maxim would come true. Flat pass from TF until he shows some level of consistency. Superb article, General!

  4. General Soreness says:

    Cheers gents, I was actually a bit surprised with a few of his numbers especially the improvement in his DE% but to think he will be competing with Dane Swan should Dane go DPP and Josh Caddy retain his, I know where my money would be spent.

    • throttlefinger says:

      Ha! Me too. From everything I've been reading about Swan, he's a lock as a DPP. And I would say a heavy consideration as a mid only.

      • Great Article General!

        As for Swan – He is teetering off my watchlist, are you guys aware he has had off-season hip surgery?

        from AFL.com.au: "Dane Swan had minor hip surgery, which involved a shaving of the bone, and Eade said he will be up and running in December."

        December running isn't that much of a biggie – but it IS another thing that has gone wrong with Swanny.

        How many other "niggles" does he have that we are unaware of. I'm thinking he might just flat break down mid season!

        Watch him with caution fellas. I'm considering bypassing him.

        Although, it is still early gents – just be wary of the body.

        Again General, bloody good read!

  5. Big_BenFC says:

    It will be interesting to see how his pre-season eventuates

  6. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    Swan will be good to go, watch pre season indicators if plays all games. Many times he has been called fat or had a niggle was sent to high altitude and come back on fire. Yes he is getting old but so is Judd, Hodge was out for ages, returned looked proppy but now back to best. As long as not a hammy groin its probs more a precaution. I think Ablett presents more concern, the injury was more significant than realised, not sure he will be ready round one…he will get DPP so will be a steal

  7. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    Caddy has to step up in 2015 no ifs buts or maybes. Look for his pree season im thinking this is good write up he may step into the role this year but is he ahead of S.Mitchell, A.Swallow A.Selwood at that price. Youd think Griffen a cert to return to form in 2015 soooo many bargains coming

  8. big aggots says:

    The North final could be fools gold. His opponent in the first half had it 24 times as well. Bruise free final that one. The week before when Hawthorn paid him attention he had 4 times to half time.
    Rounds 1-3 last year he had 18 clangers alone. Mastered the art of the forward spinning drop punt. Never thought we'd see it again when Damien Monkhurst retired. Pass.

  9. Phat Phuc says:

    Geez General I reckon your Bombers bias might be shining through here!
    This bloke is only a kid in his 4th year yet averaged 97.5 for final 8 games of the year, yes it included a 50 but it also included a 140, 121, 112 and three scores over 90.
    At anything less than 500k he is a better bargain than medibank private shares.