Supercoach 2015 – Dane Swan

Filed in Collingwood, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 5, 2014 • views: 3306

Is Dane Swan still Supercoach relevant?

TG Footy Tracgic - Dexter

At his best – yes; Swan is one of the top-of-the-line GUNS of Supercoach. Was Swan at his best in 2014? No. Will Swan return to his Super Elite ways of 2009-2013? Let’s find out.

Usually, Swan plays most of his game in the middle and resting in the forward or on the bench. This year was a different story. It’s well documented how he struggled with his wrists and the offseason surgery that followed; but was that the reason for his ordinary year? Swan did play in a “transitional” Collingwood side and some would argue he should have had more time in the guts as an experienced body.

My initial thoughts: an interrupted pre-season and niggling injury prevented his season from taking off.

2015 Price: $464,500
2015 Position: MID/FWD
Games last season: 17
Average last season: 86.41
100+ games last season: 3
Sub 80 games last season: 7
Price range last season: $388K-$632K
Missed games last season: 5 (Foot, Hammy), RD 11 (foot), RD 18-20 (Foot), RD 23 (Hammy)
Significant history: Averaged 117.27 in 2013; 126.22 in 2012; 121.95 in 2011; 126.86 in 2010; 123.23 in 2009Suspended for 2 games in 2012; for drinking in July of that year.Drafted at pick 58 in the 2001 national draft

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By his lofty standards, 2014 was a proverbial turd in his jocks. Down on form; this could be put down to a mix of an interrupted preseason and mid-season injury. His only “good” form came from rounds 4-6 where he averaged 127 over the 3 weeks. Take out these 3 weeks and his 2014 season average drops to a paltry 77.7.

Why was Dane Swan’s 2014 season a shadow of 2009-2013? His averages across the board were down. Startlingly; Swan averaged 1.5 centre clearances a game, compared to 2.4 in 2013; down a whopping 37%. There is a strong indication that Swan is being moved on from the midfield, and seems to be spending more time up forward.

Swan has shown that he is no mug in the forward line, and has a favourable 1-on-1-contest-win ratio. He is a deceptively quick player and can burn off his opponents. Who knows, a more permanent fwd position could lead to more goal and goal assists – neither of which hurt his SC scoring capacity. A permanent forward role would severely damage his scoring capacity, but a 50-50 or 40-60 split shouldn’t be as bad.

Recent news that Dayne Beams wishes to be traded to QLD could be significant. If Beams does leave the Pies; will Swan get more midfield time? He could. But being a team in transition; Buckley could use this to blood his young up-and-coming players like Kennedy, Thomas etc. I’d wager Swan will play a more permanent Forward role in 2015 – with bursts through the guts.

My only concern with Swan – is this year a preview to the further decline to come in 2015 or was 2014 an aberration? My theory: a little of both. His glory days are behind him; but he shouldn’t be as bad in 2015. Preseason will be the key. Where will Collingwood play him? If you’re considering him, watch his preseason closely.

RISK FACTOR

  • Wrong side of 30
  • Injury risk – injuries killed 2014
  • Generally misses 1-3 games a year (rests mostly)

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you are considering starting Swan; try to use him as a stepping stone to a safer player. With the exception of 2014 – Swan generally explodes out of the blocks. If you have the plums; you could use him to jump up to that premium you couldn’t quite afford at the start. Not a keeper.

THE GOOD

  • Ceiling. When Swan is on. HE IS ON. Can rip a team apart.
  • High possession getter. Averaged 24.9 disposals in 2014 (his lowest since 2008) – his previous 5 years he averaged 31.9 disposals.
  • Kicker. More than 61% of his disposals are kicks.
  • Potential DPP – Do we risk a cheap Dane Swan if he is Dual Position?

THE DOWNSIDE

  • 2014 was a horrible year. Sign of decline?
  • Efficiency could be higher. 62% efficiency for 2014 wasn’t horrible, but a higher efficiency will go a long way to a better SC score!
  • Wrong side of 30, history with injuries and resting. Missed 5 games in 2014.

THE VERDICT

The 2015 offseason will be the key to see what Bucks does with him, and if he gets a full pre-season into himself. A few things need to go right for me to consider him in my side.

IF:

  1. Swan becomes a MID/FWD in 2015.
  2. Swan has an injury free Preseason – A full preseason goes a long way to get the K’s into the legs for a big year.
  3. Match simulation and preseason training indicated he’ll play more Midfield than Forward.

THEN:

I’d seriously consider a berth in my side. At this stage; Swan misses selection in SoapOnARope for 2015, but he is definitely firm on my radar.

NO

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

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Comments (31)

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  1. phil says:

    Only 1 thing needs to happen to Swan to make my team. MID/FWD and he will be the biggest lock going around. Risk? Of course…..But sometimes its a bigger risk NOT to pick someone.

  2. General Soreness says:

    Great article Dexter, if he goes Mid/Fwd I expect he will be one of the most selected players, at Mid only he wont be. The downside risk in selecting him is more the loss of a trade if he doesnt come good, I dont expect his form to drop below his 2014 average so I expect he will hold his price regardless. Unless he has ripping preseason form I will be unlikely to select him for most of the reasons you have detailed.

  3. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Mid/Fwd is almost a certainty. I'm not sure he's buying into what Nathan Buckley is selling. There are strong cases for and against on this one. It could be a critical decision that makes or brakes. Big pre season (injury free) & it becomes a massive decision. Great acticle Dex!

    • throttlefinger says:

      With you on this, Pieman. Even in his stellar 2013 season, he was sulking a bit due to Bucks' changes. Interchange rule changes probably didn't help either. Definitely one to watch pre-season.

      Stellar second article, Dex. Another to ponder during NAB play.

      • Cheers Fellas!

        Apologies for lacking in the comments, the last week has been pretty full on!

        We welcomed a new addition to the family – mixed with increased work time.
        I will endeavour to keep up with the comments, as you fine community members do.

        • throttlefinger says:

          CONGRATS DEX!

          Is this your first? I have two youngins so I know the pain you're in for (mostly in terms of lack of sleep). Comment when you can, my man. But definitely make it a lesser priority…until the season, of course.

          • Thanks Throtts!

            This little one is number 3, and (hopefully) last. Don't really want to have to buy a new car and all that – not to mention 3 mouths to feed!

            Haha all that said, i'm a very lucky bloke to have what i have. :)

            • throttlefinger says:

              Indeed you are, my man. Very lucky.

              Luckily I don't have a car. Use Zipcar (borrow cars in nearby garages by the hour). Avoid buying anything new is most father's mantra. Again, congrats on kid #3.

              • haha that's different indeed!
                I suppose living in a metropolis, you could do that!

                I live in a town of 600 odd people…. We have 0 public transport and no way of renting/borrowing cars :)

                I'm about 400km (250mi) away from Melbourne – the home of the hallowed MCG turf, which is also the closest major city.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      I think you will find the shock of Shaw will be lessened come 2015 – there is a lot of improvement from players to be made next year. Pendles sees a flag soon, players like Beams and Lumumba are also saying they dont buy into him. I can only assume when Bucks blasted Witts was identical outburst to Shaw showing his emotions and being replaced for his transgression didnt sit well with the playing group based on the double standards. Theres something there cos side started to slide, slip, Maxwell retired, Swan inj and we went from 4th 10w 2l to 11w 11l — Theres a lot of upside still, Toovey Reid Swan Cloke Goldsack Fasolo Okeefe Williams Seedsman Blair had poor years some of those guys gotta ask big questions about their reputations. Grundy Witts Langdon Frost were thrust into responsibility which can only be good. Elliot stepped up again. Whiites gotta find something.

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        Plenty of talent at Collingwood i like their position over Geelong. The 1999 side was more ordinary than where Pies at right now within 3yrs they were in 2 GFs. The next stage is replace Swan at end of year. Beams $650k > Greenwood $450k = $200k + Swan retired $800k theres your $1mill a year for Danger in 2016 with a wealth of talent in def and rucks coming into their own. Thatll be the premiership tilt Pendles sees ahead

        • THE SALTSHAKER says:

          Ben Reid as a 30-40 goal fwd is the most important development that needs to happen he is in his prime. Both him and White need to get some run, drop a few kg this pre season

          • DognutZ says:

            SALTSHAKER….. You my friend are a one eyed pie supporter. You don't need to conjure reasons for Collingwoods demise, just accept they are shite fella

  4. xMASOx says:

    Watch for me , i read some where he was also suffering from glandular fever ? if true was probably bigger factor then his wrist.

  5. MightyDonsFC says:

    All depends on whether or not Buckley replaces Beams for mine. If not, I'd expect Swan to step up for at least the first half of the season whilst gradually giving the reins over to Thomas/Adams.

  6. Phil says:

    Adams take Ball's spot

  7. CAKEATER says:

    Lock for me. I fully expect the Pig 2 b back next year. As casual as Dane portrays himself he will b filthy on 2014 and will tear everyone who doesn’t pick him a new one in 2015. DPP will b a added bonous for me. #oink #cake

  8. News that Dane won't be up and running until December. Does this affect our want to buy him in for 2014?

    I'm leaning further away from him. But then again, it's only around 4 weeks less prep…

    Really need to watch his progress to gain a berth

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      At his age its prob a blessing, its all about what he wants but 25pos without trying as well as endless times he was in best position and they didnt go to him last year woulda spun him out abit. Im not a bigfan of this rest the older guys approach, or run him 40% outta fwd, surely any coach worth their weight would be building their year around Swan getting plenty. I dont think another year with a light pre season is in anyones interests – if he wants it give it to him. I think youll see more teams doing the WCE, slide one year then renewed focus when the cattles there. I think we will see a much better Pies alround in 2015 they werent coached that 2nd half – you cant decide youre going to Cloke too often too predictable, make a change for immediate result then just let old habits creep in again. Surely someones gotta coach Cloke to get on his rollerskates by showcasing the success of 2014 best forwards were the ones who didnt wrestle, got seperation. Shit they didnt even have plans for being at the fall of the ball – was lazy and left lazy for some reason. You compare that inability to play to gameplan vs Hawks GF execution and you can only conclude they were a rabble and left that way.

  9. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    Well that sucks? The thread i gave the mighty Jockette a wind up about Collingwood is gone?

    As if im that much of a clarke KENT id bloody take anti pie propaganda to heart "everyone hates us" i was just fishing like Jock was on facebook the other night. Can we dredge up the post haha im sure id copped a spray for being a sugary teets for throwing the great man under the bus when his work for the fantasy community is beyond reproach. I just saw a good opportunity to get it up ya haha i couldnt resist. And Throtts i did sales for 20yrs, yes sales, only recruiters try poaching talent from one page to another thats why you stare down the cocky ones and say it must be great to be in and industry where your next job is based on what you stole from your current employer. Find me an honest recruiter and ill give up bacon. Seriously, you handed out passes to your club down the road to patrons of another venue while youre in it…you can guarantee theyd take you out the back and give you a lesson on ettiquette. Besides everyone knows its the cheatsheets that keep the game alive not the army.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      Dane Swan no need for analysis just lock him in. The second greatest mid to have played the game after Ablett is a steal at that price. No other player has had a career between games 100-200 (regarded as the peak years of a career) quite like Dane Swan, he beats em all Voss Buckley West Harvey and Ablett. In 2013 Swan had the best 1v1 winning % for any midfielder, and if you remember the year Pendles had that drew such high praise; his possession resulted in 9000m gained, to put things in real perspective Swan had 12000m gained.

      If Ablett wasnt around we would be saying Swans the greatest of all time and he would be in more best team over the last 25yr selections without a doubt. So youre looking at an all time brilliance, but where was it last year?

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        25 possies and he wasnt even trying, not rotated to break tags but rested up forward. He never got out of 2nd gear except against Essendon where he reminded everyone of his awesome football ability. Im not saying will return to 800 pos a year again but if he is fit and interested he knows no other way. Age to Swan isnt a barrier he is a natural, its always been whether he wants to or not. It will be a testimony to Buckleys coaching ability to see where he wants him in 2015, just like pursuing McCaffer tagging when an attacking mid mindset i believe is where we need to be. Caff is wasting a mid position, doesnt get enough footy, he can still go in their occassionally to shut down if needed but Pies need another leading fwd more than a negetive shutdown player. Swan needs first hand mids winning footy that he can spread from as well as being comforted his efforts in 2014 to get, bend over chase or tackle were terrible, if Bucks gives the nod to run amok for the year gets Swan right then 110+ is where he will hit regularly. If he gets fwd DPP he will be the most picked player in 2015

        • THE SALTSHAKER says:

          LOCK!!

        • throttlefinger says:

          Welcome back, my friend.

          And agree, Swans a lock if he shows more interest/initiative/zest. Wasn't there last year. Sure preseason will give a sign. If he's not DPP, I'll wait and see how he does. Could be first corrective trade. If DPP, pretty sure his platinum status will earn him a spot in TF's starting fwd line.

    • throttlefinger says:

      Not getting your point about the sales and how it pertains to me. Happy to have you back in the comment fold nonetheless, Salty.

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        Yeah i didnt go anywhere – was satire at Jocks pie bashing on Facebook

        Rodney Eade Swan may appear carefree but he takes big pride at his footy and proceeded to list the ops he had last pre season he wont this be affected by, the hip op will be nothing. Swan set for big one in 2015 is the mail im hearing. I think cakeeaters on the money

        • throttlefinger says:

          He did me right in 2013. Wanted to bring him in last season but didn't look like himself. Think you're right about pride of the man. Won't allow two seasons of sub-Swan level play happen.

  10. Derek says:

    he might even be cheaper than $464k next year, if he is under $440k and MID/FWD = lock

  11. The boner champ says:

    Dane Swan is the Kobe Bryant of the AFL, watch him come back

  12. Seaford Scouse says:

    Not really seeing a lot or risk if priced right, SC gold and at a discount after an injury hampered season. Even he repeats the levels of last year it’s a simple corrective trade. No brainer for me, Lock n load for rd1

  13. DognutZ says:

    I'm liking the corrective trade comments…. I'll pass on the rest of the dribble from the one eyed pies