Supercoach 2015 – Jobe Watson

Filed in Essendon, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 4, 2014 • views: 3168

Proven Elite – Can he return to Brownlow form?

Big Ben - a man on a mission

Jobe Watson has been the heart and soul of the Essendon Football club in what can only be described as some of the darkest days in AFL history.

The Bombers captain has been instrumental in their midfield engine for many years and has proven to be an elite fantasy footballer. Since winning the Brownlow Medal, and the ASADA investigation that followed, Watson has sustained a few injuries that have set him back which has resulted in inconsistent points output at the top level.

2015 Price: $574,800
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 14
Average last season: 107
100+ games last season: 8
Sub 80 games last season: 2
Price range last season: $500k-$601k
Missed games last season: 8 games, rounds 13-20 with Quadricep tendon injury
Significant history: Averaged 106 or higher the last 5 seasons.2012 average 120.95Drafted at pick 40 under the father-son rule in 2002

Watson is a big bodied, hardworking midfielder who has the ability to break a tag and get his hand on the pill. In 2014 he spent some time resting in the forward line and has the ability to kick a few goals, kicking 10 for the season. He was averaging 104 points before his injury and 84 points upon his return in round 21.

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RISK FACTOR

There is no hiding from the fact that the Essendon Football Club is facing ASADA sanctioning with the possibility of player bans to come. It has been all over the news for the last two seasons and could very well make any Essendon player (from a fantasy perspective) a real liability.

Putting the ASADA situation aside, Watson turns 30 in February which is in the middle of the pre-season, meaning he will have to work hard and do everything right to make sure his body holds out for the entire season and to ensure he does not get injured or begin to fade in the second half of next year. With age comes niggling injuries and Watson seems to be getting a few more these days so we will have to keep an eye on him being rested around the bye period.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you were considering bringing Watson into your team you will need to keep an eye on his progress in the pre-season to see how he is faring in fitness and injuries. He is a proven elite fantasy footballer that has the ability to pump out huge 160 scores however he occasionally pumps out an 80 in a quiet game. If he spends more time playing forward he is also a very able goal kicker with pretty decent accuracy.

THE GOOD

  • A solid midfield workhorse that will never give up. Has proven time and again that he will run out a game and give everything for his team
  • Has the ability to go large in the fantasy scoring department posting some quite large scores on occasion
  • Can push forward and slot a few goals. Barring his injury last season, he can go forward and become an able goal kicker whilst resting from midfield duties.
  • With the emergence of Dyson Heppell in the midfield, he won’t be tagged as much in 2015 which could result in him going large.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • He is getting on in age and as a midfielder that can start to cause issues with injuries and the ability to run out a game.
  • ASADA investigation. This has been playing on the minds of the entire football team for two seasons now and with the possibility of show cause notices, it will only cause more drama for Watson and his team.
  • Weakened Essendon rucks. With Ryder leaving, the ruck situation is a little weaker for the Bombers which could result in less clearances and less hands on the ball.

THE VERDICT

It’s tough to gauge where Watson sits in the fantasy realms at the moment, he consistently averages 106 points or higher in the midfield but truth be told, it’s not enough on a consistent basis. In the midfield we are looking at 110+ players week in week out to sure up our team.

A lot will depend on how Watson trains in the pre-season and if he carries any injuries into the regular season. That said, if he can get on the park, I think Jobe will average 105-115 points for 2015 and with a starting price of approximately $535k I think he is worth a punt from round one.

What are your thoughts on Jobe Watson?

Big Ben

Twitter: @Big_BenFC

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THE 2015 SUPERCOACH OFF SEASON SERIESAFL Supercoach Legend Jock Reynolds
This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

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Comments (11)

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  1. throttlefinger says:

    Excellent piece, Double B.

    At that price, he will be HEAVILY considered…verging on a MUST. Right now thinking he could be a bridge to Pendles or other elite players you leave out from the start. Pick Jobe, he'll knock up some big scores the first 5 games or so then trade up before those niggling injuries swing their ugly head. Can't see him playing a full 22. Or 20.

    Rawkin review!

  2. General Soreness says:

    Great article Big Ben! The price makes him very tempting, however I have been seduced and burnt on “value” picks before. I will be doing exactly what you have suggested and watch how he goes. I like the suggestion of TF re bring him in with view to trade if required.

  3. MightyDonsFC says:

    Lock for me (:

  4. xMASOx says:

    One of my favorite Bombers and at that price he would be a lock to start with providing his not banned :)

  5. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    I had him start if this season. Not so sure on him now. Don’t like trading out premos. Not sure how his body will hold up now that they can’t take peptides anymore . But if is priced at 530k must be seriously considered.

  6. Tom says:

    Unfortunately, he'll be priced at more like $577k, the price listed here is based on the in-season break-even formula (ie average x $5000) whereas the starting price is approximately average x $5400. This means that virtually all non-rookies are over-priced versus their average to start the year which is why most players drop in price during the year. This drop in price is offset by the rookie listed players increasing in price and allows the total cumulative value of all players to remain the same. It is first law of thermodynamics (conservation of energy/total dollars) applied to fantasy football

    • General Soreness says:

      Correct re estimated opening price, nice pick up Tom, I didn't test the mathematics :)

  7. Big_BenFC says:

    Ah yes it was the formula I was using, at 577k he might be a bit too pricey