Supercoach 2015 – Toby Greene

Filed in Latest article, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on October 2, 2014 • views: 20054

“Better than Simon Black at the Same Age”. Outperforming Robert Harvey.

General Soreness

Luke Power described Toby Greene as “Better than Simon Black at the same age” after bursting onto the scene in his first year in 2012, high praise for the GWS midfielder coming from a man that would know better than most. However it is not surprising given his history.

Greene averaged 24 touches in the National Championships and was selected in the All Australian under eighteen side.

He followed this up in this first year at AFL level where he amassed a higher average possession per game for a player of his age than any player in the modern era, beating a record held by Robert Harvey. In hard numbers he amassed 539 possessions at 28.4 per game. To put that in perspective Dependlebury this year had 596 at 28.4.

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He was nominated for the NAB Rising Star award in Round 14 and would have won it but for a dubious 1 week holiday courtesy of the MRP for a rough conduct charge on Jed Adcock. He went on to come second behind Callan Ward for the Kevin Sheedy award (GWS B&F).

But like many players before him he also had a severe case of the second year blues. However unlike most his second year blues was brought on more by attracting closer attention from rival teams and being the recipient of a number of tags during the 2013 year.

The start of 2014 looked to be picking up from where 2013 ended, a floater bobbing down shit creek. That was before he decided to assault some senior citizens at a pub in Caulfield earning himself a Stevie J circa 2007 type holiday for five weeks plus a $5,000 fine.

Clearly an old bloke at that pub must have knocked some sense into the young bloke, after eking out a measly 63 in his return game he went BANG thereafter return averaging a whopping 128.5 over the last 7. That’s not including the NEAFL games where he racked up 40+ possies in the games after his ban ended and before coming back into the GWS team.

2015 Price: $553,300
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 15
Average last season: 102.9
100+ games last season: 7
Sub 80 games last season: 2
Price range last season: $388k-$588k
Missed games last season: 7 games rounds 9 – 15 with club imposed vacation1 game round 6 suspension for striking
Significant history: Averaged 73.2 in 2013, 94.6 in 2012 Second in club B&F behind Callan Ward in his first year 2012 Round 14 Rising Star Nomination 2012 before being ineligible 2012 Highest average possessions per game of any player of his age in the modern era Drafted round 1 at pick 11 in the 2011 national draft

Over his career he is averaging 26.32 possies per game spread evenly between kicks and handballs with 10 of them on average contested, over 4 marks per game, over 3 tackles.

RISK FACTOR

There is no doubt Greene knows how to get and use the pill. He is surrounded by likeminded friends. Having played 53 games in three years and missing less than a handful due to injury there is not a large injury risk.

He won’t come cheap – but premos do not come cheap. And make no mistake this kid is a premo. The risk here is you pay the premium price and end up getting midpricer output which may happen if he truly hasn’t learnt to work through a tag. And a tag affected his 2013 output. However this is a standard risk most of us Supercoach addicts live with at the beginning of each season. Notwithstanding this risk his career to date tells us that he has learnt to work through the tag and the likelihood of him producing regular scores sub 80 are low. Teams also have to choose whether to tag Greene, Treloar.. the list goes on.

SELECTION PURPOSE

Turned 21 the day before the years Grand Final. With another preseason under his belt expect him to pick up where he left off in 2014.

Bring him into your side and leave him there. Set and forget.

THE GOOD

  • Premium output but also expect premium price. However if he pumps out scores like he did toward the end of the 2014 season you would consider him cheap
  • Has a big upside with a 161 and 141 last season to go with a 165 in 2012
  • Lots of contested ball and a solid tackler which ensures his scores don’t bottom out in lower possession matches ala Libba.
  • He will be a point of difference. Many will look elsewhere in this price range.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • He plays for GWS. There are a lot of kids around him all vying for the same spot
  • His contested nature has resulted in a few holidays courtesy of the MRP. None of them ssignificant but will obviously affect your season if he has a holiday or two.

THE VERDICT

I am predicting a big year from the GWS midfielder. 110+ average is not beyond this guys capabilities and he has proven he can consistently deliver premium output with some big scores. At 110+ his starting price may prove cheap and whilst he may start as a solid POD he may not stay that way

YES – LOCK HIM IN EDDIE!

What’s your call on Toby Greene in 2015?

General Soreness

Twitter: @GenSorenessSC

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THE 2015 SUPERCOACH OFF SEASON SERIESAFL Supercoach Legend Jock Reynolds
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Comments (26)

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  1. throttlefinger says:

    Oh man, is that a scorcher of a review, General. And one that takes on my Treloar pick. Well done, my friend.

    Honestly, other than Ward, it's going to be a toss of between Treloar, Greene and Shiels, who may be the best value for output of the 3. All of this has me thinking that the preseason and maybe first couple games to see how this plays out before picking any of them. Success may smile on all of them. Just may be a matter seeing which one will get you the most for your buck.

    Again, helleva job, General!

  2. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Great work General. Certainly some food for thought there. The fact that he has hit the 50 games makes it an even more tantalising prospect!

  3. General Soreness says:

    Cheers Gents I was quite a fan of his in his first season, when doing the article it surprised me how good his numbers were.

  4. Garglesnarf FC says:

    Loving these articles guys! A warm thanks for all your hard work and effort.

    I am a massive Toby Greene fan, he is a dirty in and under midfielder who loves to lay tackles, and wins the football for his fellow mids. In discussions with fellow SC’ers he often gets bagged for poor disposal, and due to his clanger count they wont pick him. This is going to sound odd, but a high clanger count is actually a GOOD thing.

    Here’s why. A quick check reveals that on a per game basis Toby does indeed rank 17th in the league for clangers however, the list of players above him are a veritable who’s who of AFL and Supercoach guns. Including Ablett, Fyfe, Martin, Franklin, Rockliffe, SJ, Hodge and JP Kennedy. Here is the full list below.

    http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rank

    Why is this important? Because there is a striking correlation between high clanger counts and high possession counts. Basically if a player is high on the clanger list, and played more than 10 games last season, then he’s on it because he racks up mountains of possessions each week and as a result makes the odd mistake. So a high clanger count is often an indicator that the player one of the highest and often the most consistent SC scorers around, due to the sheer number of possessions they amass. In addition, a fair number of these guys are also winners of contested ball, another reason they score so high in SC.

    Interestingly Treloar and Shiel also feature on this list. A very good indicator that the 2015 GWS midfield edition will be a tough one to contain, with three players who rack up possessions, & win alot of contested footy. (equal highest in 2014 alongside Sydney)

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      The correlation between high clangers and high possession counts is true. People think Dane Swan butchers the ball but surprised when stats show Ablett avg around same disp has higher clanger counts and averages than Swan. There are factors like contested possion, clearances, hardball gets and higher kick to handball ratios that affect clanger counts. You can still get decent scores with high clanger counts especially if you dominate contested possession like Fyfe did last 3 seasons, alot of his clangers was from just banging it forward after winning hardball, cp and clearing the ball. The issue for consistency in scoring comes from either improving your disposal as Jordan Lewis did who already had high DE% or improving your DE% – so if he does either wiill improve scoring if he does both look out.

  5. xMASOx says:

    Mag-bloody-nificent !!!!!

  6. T-fly says:

    OMG stumbled across these articles by chance. Thought I'd have to wait until 2015 to satisfy my needs but I guess not.

    Not too keen on TG and think I might go in with Calum Ward in 2015. Go with the proven gun. The problem with GWS is that all their midfielders have the capability to score 110+ but in all likelihood you are only going to have one player to break the 110 from each club, two at the most. How many clubs last year had 2 midfielders average over 110. The answer is 2, Collingwood with Pendles and Beams, and Fremantle with Fyfe and Barlow.

    Now unless you see Ward going backwards in 2015 (I don't), then I don't think you can justify picking up Tobby Green, Adam Trelour and co because history will tell you that not too many teams have more than 2 elite 110 midfielders. Can't GWS bucking the trend in 2015 either. At the same development as Gold Coast this year and their next best midfielder averaged 106

    • jockreynolds says:

      Welcome aboard T-fly! Look forward to more of your insights mate. Sensational analysis

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      You would have to take Ward on consistency out of the 3 but the sitch in middle may change. The players who dont cop the tag or at least handles it best would be your best bet. If still stuck on decision then do some analysis on Disp, CP, DE%, Clearances, Tackles and TOG% which are sc scoring indicators that set the elite apart from the rest.

      Interesting to see Greenes TAC stats at 24disp, same as Josh Kelly which puts the younger Crouch brother in the watch list as he avg 32d during his TAC year.

      • General Soreness says:

        Younger Crouch is definitely on the radar, potential gun, knows how to find and use the footy.

  7. Kev says:

    It's one thing to give away the footy when you're throwing it on the boot out of a pack, but it's another thing entirely to do it when there is no pressure on you – and TG is guilty of just that. Have a gander at his his SC ave v his DT ave and it's the DT ave that is coming out on top. This tells me that yeah, he can rack em up, but he doesn't influence games the same way that your "safe" premiums will i.e.: ablett, pendles, rocky, fyfe, selwood etc

    A NO for me at this stage but is definitely on the radar.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      Yeah i think this year we saw Swan drop from that Elite category but added 2more to it in Rocky, Fyfe. Interestingly Mike Shehan had Selwood as #1 player and Rockliff not even in top 10. The guy avg 31d and 8.6 tackles some of the stuff he did in 2014 was superhuman 47d 14tackles or something ridiculous. I cant remember a midfielder getting those those numbers? I made a comment that Mike youve always loved your favourites Judd, Voss (over Buckley), Ablett (when a couple of times Swan had better years) and he always has Selwood up there. I asked if he heard of a bloke called Tom Rockliff and if Selwoods 68 frees for was a record? For some reason my post didnt get approved??

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        I see Selwood just out of elite categoy, (115-120ppg) with Watson, Beams – with 6games in 2014 avg only 19d. yet he is my first mid upgrade last 2yrs after byes which has worked for me. For me he is a workhorse just doesnt quite get enough pill consistently.

        • throttlefinger says:

          Disagree there, Salty. 123 SC ave would be elite. #4 in SC scores. Have a feeling Selwood's game will go up next season. Getting the finals boot could have him coming back with a vengeance. Especially last season where he started as strong as he usually finishes. (157/140/138, ending with 176/151/148).

          But agree that's it's basically showing your bias not mentioning Rocky among the best. The numbers make it indisputable.

  8. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    120.9 is what i have him as, in his best sc year. So yes i class above 120 elite and to be fair i think he was on track for that another year ended up 117 with an early game injury that affected his avg. So yeah close enough to the grade. You would think if he could be more consistent across the season then his disposals will get back up in the 28s but will he kick as many goals again? I might just take him ahead of Fyfe in M4 based on his 117, 118 and 120.9

    Correction on Rocky 32.7d and 9.1 tackles – thats superman right there. To me he was the stand out in 2014. Geez my mids gonna cost me some $$ next year with him and Yablett starting above $700k

    • throttlefinger says:

      Gaz, Rocky, Selwood and Fyfe would be the musts. Pendles would be the one to bring in later if he's return to 2013 form.

  9. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    Now that my footywire is running again i have had a proper look and have changed my opinion on the GWS boys. Interestingly Greenes disp is 28.1 and Treloars 27.6 he also has a higher DE at 68% compared to Treloars 67.4. They both have a similiar scoring range in DT greene 102 vs Treloars 103 and SC greene 102 and 107 treloar. So looking at that im really liking them both as 3rd year players but Greenes finish after relatively poor/inconsistent start is impressive. When looking at his first year 28disp and the calibre of his finish he seems the better in form/higher gear player. As for Ward even though he had a 112sc avg and excellent DE at 74% to me he just doesnt get enough footy. He has avg 24 to 24.9 disp last 2yrs and still has not cracked 500 disposals in a season. I generally dont look at a mid until they do. Some good news, in regards to Contested Possession per game both Treloar and Ward were ranked equal 11th in 2014 with 12.5 per game. Greene 31st with 10.9 per game. Tackle counts both Treloar and Ward very similiar but Ward taking chocolates, both more than Greene as was case with clearances. So to me this says Ward in under, Greene more outside run and Treloar a bit of both.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      GWS supporters may be able to confirm, as i havent had chance to watch too many of their games. Of the 3 and looking at upside/break out Treloar seems to have had the biggest leap so not sure how much more there is to go. Ward i dont see increasing his disposals by too much more which to get upside would need to do. Greene however had such as a strong finish (as GS says in this thread), that you could consider those 6 games as a breakout/reaching a new level especially if you look at his first year as a guide from which to improve from/upside. Ill try work out what the exact stats are for those last 6 games. To me Greene > Treloar > Ward in upside potential. However the main issue is he finished on $588k where as Treloar was $500k, do they base the following year on your end price or your pts average? If its end price youd take Treloar, if its average pts then Greene screams pick of the bunch

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        Ok done the sums Greenes last 6 games avgs (only had basic stats to draw from)

        Disposals 33.1 (35, 32, 27, 35, 29, 42, 32)
        Marks 6.7 (7, 3, 4, 9, 9, 7, 8 )
        Tackles 5.3 (3, 2, 10, 5, 7, 5, 5 )

        If kept up for the year thats elite

        • throttlefinger says:

          That's a huge "if". And I'd say an unrealistic one given that a guy pulling those numbers will be getting more attention from the taggarizzi. Also lows hits low pretty low…55 and 63 (compared to Treloar 72 and 74)

      • throttlefinger says:

        From watching, think Treloar, talent wise, has the biggest upside. Greene is the one I see more of a mirage, from watching him play. He played his best ball at the end of the season. I would be shocked if he went plus 120+ more than 5 times this next year. Treloar has increased his totals each season. And is a natural goal kicker as well. Of course I'm showing my bias yet from watching 15 or so games this year, Treloar seems just like he has the most upside. Treloar>Greene.

        The one to watch may be Shiels. Depending on where his price comes out, Ward/Treloar/Greene may garner the most attention, allowing this kid to come through. Missed some games due to injury but went 120+ four times. He may be the pick of the bunch.

        Of all of them the only one you could pick from the start with confidence is Ward. The rest of them are based on hope and their promise (some more of one than the other). Best bet is to watch the preseason and see how these 4 click and who's looking like they've stepped their game.

        • THE SALTSHAKER says:

          Well im still trying to work out where Ward got his pts from based on his stats. Considering he got inj early in a game his avg should be even higher. I think you might be paying overs for Ward.

          • THE SALTSHAKER says:

            Looking at the Fallen, youve got Watson, Cotchin, Swallow, and looking at those entering 3rd (break out year) you have Wines, McRae, Crouch. The talk about McRae at start of this year is he may surpass Libba within 18mths, who was being coined the next Ablett! high praise indeed. So theres a few candidates around the mark that you would expect to have better 2015.

            • throttlefinger says:

              Think you're right about Ward. Tackles are not consistent. Can go to 13 and down to 1, which is sort of weird when you think about it. Averages 5/g, which is good. Highest ranking was 7th in clearances. Went to the AFL.com.au and he has a high disposal efficiency 74.5 (Gaz-69%, Selwood 76%) That could be a good reason for the boost. He's a bit roller coaster for me to pick from the start.

              So yeah Salty, I am changing my mind. There really isn't a good GWS mid you can pick with confidence from the start. I may roll dice on Treloar. Or just wait it out a couple games. Giving myself a couple risk/gut picks. Not many though.

              Macrae showed me A LOT this season. Man, he just attracts the ball and knows what to do with it. I can see him passing Libba. 119 marks for a mid! 392 uncontested possessions. 73% disposal efficiency. But not big on the clearances and tackles. Some shades of Gazza.

              You're right there's others to look at. Concerns on that list is Jobe's age (penchant for injury), Cotchin is too damn unsteady. Swallow, well, don't know. Delidio I had from the start last season and did me right until he got hurt. Playing more half forward, he could be a diamond in the rough. Went ton his last 6 games. (high 134, 132, 126). Price will be the same as last year. Could be worth a punt.

  10. Captain says:

    I have 600K to spend on a midfielder, who is best option?