Supercoach 2015 – Dyson Heppell

Filed in Essendon, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on September 30, 2014 • views: 2958

The best of the 22 under 22?

Chicko - elite fantasy analystDyson Heppell hasn’t missed a beat since he slipped down the draft order in 2010 and was snaffled by the Bombers with Pick 8. The blonde shag played all 22 games in his first year of senior football in 2011, averaging 84. Since that time his trajectory has steadily grown, and whilst he spent the better part of his first 3 years playing off the half-back flank, this year we saw Heppell spend a lot more time dedicated to the mid-field post – we Supercoaches like that.

I like this kid. I like the way he moves and I like his prospects heading into 2015. The comparisons to Supercoach rolled gold like Scott Pendlebury are justified. He moves smoothly, he finds the pill and seems to create time and delivers nicely off the left peg.

The fact he was voted 4th in the AFLPA MVP awards speaks volumes.

2015 Price: $571,800
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 21
Average last season: 106
100+ games last season: 13
Sub 80 games last season: 2
Price range last season: $491k-$571k
Missed games last season: 1 game – Round 22 with a hand fracture
Significant history: Number 8 draft pick in 2010 draftNamed Captain of the Best 22 Under 22 in 2013 & 2014Averaged 106 in 2014. Averaged 111 over the last 10 roundsHis average increased by 15 from the 2013 seasonAll Australian in 2014

After steady improvement in each of his first 3 years, Heppell had a breakout year in 2014, averaging 106 – the first year where he has averaged 100+ points. There was a decidedly bad smell when Jobe Watson went down mid-year with a quad / hip tendon, but Heppell was like the warm breeze when spring bursts through and ramped up his output averaging 111 over the last 10 rounds of the year – that is premium scoring in anyone’s language.

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RISK FACTOR

  • You have to ask yourself the question, will the kid go backwards in 2015? Will the ASADA investigation have an adverse outcome on his year?
  • Provided you answer a ‘no” to both of those questions then the largest risks are somewhat mitigated.
  • Perhaps the other risk is that Heppell has reduced midfield time in 2015, but given his growth and success this year, it is hard to see that happening.

SELECTION PURPOSE

  • If you select Heppell from the start of your 2015 team, then it would be with an eye to keeping him for the entire year. The kid is durable, is improving, and if that improvement continues, then you have yourself a player who will average 105 to 115pts.

THE GOOD

  • If Heppell’s price is around $570k (confirmed price $571,800), then I think he represents decent value as compared to the ultra-premiums
  • If his midfield time stays the same, then that is a bonus. The upside is also good should he win more contested ball and kicks a few more goals then lookout (he only kicked 6 in 2014).
  • Heppell is durable. He hasn’t played less than 19 games in any of his first 4 years
  • Potential POD, only owned by 4% of teams in 2014

THE DOWNSIDE

  • He has a bad year – so far his worst averaging year was 84 in his debut year of 2011
  • The blonde shag gets so out of control that Heppell can’t see where the hell he is going. If that is the case, be prepared to jump into the Kingswood and drive the boy to the barber shop.
  • An ASADA ban takes hold and nuts him for the first quarter of the year – possibly a real and present risk given the recent court findings.

THE VERDICT

It might be the black and red blood coursing through my veins, but I cannot help but be buoyant about Heppell. I owned him as a rookie in 2011, and again last year as DEF/MID. I didn’t own him this year, but I feel bloody positive about what he might deliver in 2015 – in his 5th year of footy, with another pre-season under his belt, I think he is ready to go up another level. He collects possessions, he collects points, stays on the park – in my book that is 3 ticks. In my squad you go Heppell son, welcome to Chicko’s Chumps.

What’s your say on Heppell in 2015?

Cheers,

Chicko

Twitter: @Chicko_LCS

 

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Comments (22)

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  1. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Gold Chicko. Never in doubt! Starting to enter his prime & very relevant

  2. General Soreness says:

    Love your work Chicko, as a Dons man myself I am also very bullish about Heppell one of those unique types who when he has the pill the game seems to slow around him. Very surprised to learn he was only in 4% of teams this season. If he remains POD he is likely to sneak his way into my 2015 supercoach team.

  3. Chicko says:

    Thanks Pie and General! I hear you, I reckon he didn't get a look in at many teams with his MID only position, but I am starting to think he may be worthy of a starting berth.

  4. throttlefinger says:

    Ripping article Chicko! Heppell has always been a fav to watch. And he seems to take the added responsibility like a champ (when Jobe left).

    One annoying question I'm sure Dons fans find annoying…does it matter if Hird rejoins the team (or shares position with Bomber)?

    • General Soreness says:

      I dont think the coaching matters too much Throttle, if it did I'm sure the exodus would have commenced by now. The players seem to love Hirdy and that love is reciprocated. Heppell has done well in his formative years under Hirdy and I cannot see that changing.

      • Chicko says:

        Touché General!

      • throttlefinger says:

        You would know much better than me, General. Just know that players tend to respond more to routine and constancy in their leadership. If it's not going to be hard going back to Hird, then I'll believe it.

  5. Chicko says:

    Cheers Throttle, he definitely stepped up when Obe One Jobe went down. I don't think a coach (whether it be Bomber, Hirdy or somebody else), will change his role into 2015. The Bombers need the blonde shag in the middle with his cool head and decent decision making to win an deliver the pill. Well, at least I hope that is the case!

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      I had him in 2013 when he had DPP and was really frustrated by his low scores, He was getting plenty of footy but just wasnt scoring so stayed away from him in 2014. Not for me in 2015 i think theres some other blokes like Cotchin (if you ask Tiger fans theyll say he had solid year) that didnt reflect in scoring that im thinking will avg same or more but paying unders.. A.Selwood will return cheap should avg 105 or L.Parker whose second half was equally brilliant if not more so (plays like Fyfe just wills himself on the contest).i may even have a crack at B.Crouch or O.Wines to have break out years and hit that 105 range

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        If you consider Rockliff, Kennedy, Priddis were all priced at $570k or thereabouts at start of 2014 but had proven 110-120avg in previous seasons then to me that starting price is a concern. In Rockys case his avg when playing fulltime mid was 127 but for 6 games Voss tried him as forward which reduced his scores/price. Priddis had shown consistency 3yrs running 2 of which had inj affecting his avg otherwise all 3yrs was 110+ and Kennedy a proven 120ppg in 2012 all 3 are elite in contested ball, clearance and tackles – how does Heppell compare in those stats? also be keen to know his Disposal efficiency which im thinking would be pretty decent as he uses ball well.

        • THE SALTSHAKER says:

          Speaking of stats, i went to footywire.com and page not working anyone else have this prob? Anyone got good site for this stuff? I love footywire ill be gutted if that site is gone

        • General Soreness says:

          For the most part it will come down to how you rate Heppell versus others in similar price against estimated output levels. You mention Wines and Crouch, these guys will have an estimated price of $544K and $514K respectively and averaged 6 and 12 SC points less per game than Heppell, not to mention Crouch susceptible to injury. Personally I think that Heppell will continue to outperform both Wines and Crouch for the $$ outlaid. If he goes 110+ he is good value and a potential POD, if he goes larger then its all upside. If you expect him to remain status quo or lower look elsewhere because as you correctly point out guys like Rockliff, Kennedy and Priddis all priced similarly, however outside Griffen and Cotchin I cannot think of too many that will fit that bill in 2015.

          • THE SALTSHAKER says:

            6 to 12 less in only their 2nd seasons isnt too bad. With the 3rd year "generally" the breakout year was reason why i mentioned those two. Im not a big risk taker with SC preferring a Fallen Prem over trying to pick a breakout player. The rocky kennedy priddis example was more to do with the areas they get big SC pts from (Disposals, CP, CL, TK,) so was just interested in a comparison in those areas. I believe he will improve but not sure it will be by much. The ASADA ruling still to come will be why i avoid any Bombers. I think you can chuck Libba in the mix as he was one of the blokes i measured against Priddis Rocky, Murphy, Kennedy, Watson pre 2014 for my D4 using last 3yrs data and trying to estimate how good a year LIbba had in 2013 i went with Watson. Libba failed to fire when Griffen out as he copped tag, if Griff remains inj free Libba should bounce back

            • THE SALTSHAKER says:

              Taking no risks hurt me in 2012 as i said no to Cotchin, Danger, Sloane, Sidebottom and Hayes – if you got on those blokes (Sidey i never really considered) then you would of gone close to the front of the pack. Was my 2nd year so was more no idea than no risk, i didnt have the knowledgebase experience. Did much better in 2013 finishing 450th overall, taking no risks. I want to haha im just chickenshit when comes to the crunch or ill read/research myself out of a decision aka was on Jacobs all preseason (thanks to Jock actually) did research came back here and said you might be onto something with big sauce! in the last week i read an article about him being in bottom % for tackles, marks, cont poss and got cold feet going with safety in Cox incase Sandi brokedown.

  6. Elite article Chicko!

    I'm keen to see how he goes. He's firmly on my watchlist, can't say i'll bring him in.
    I'm keeping the eyes peeled for quality that is also underpriced.
    Heppell is quality, i have no doubt – but may be overs.

    definitely a watch and see.

  7. Big_BenFC says:

    I am thinking I might run Heppell next year but a lot obviously depends on the ASADA thing

    • Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

      Agree with you Big Ben! Wish they could just get it over & done with. It’s causing preseason planning problems

  8. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    I think theyll get 12mths each, not sure AFL wants that and what it will mean to Essendon would kill the team but they didnt take an early reduced suspension offered to them that they could do during the off season and be ready for rnd 1. Which i found weird? Coulda been over and done

  9. Chicko says:

    Don't think they will get 12 months Saltshaker. In breaking news, Heppell has won the Bombers B&F. Just rewards for the young man.

  10. Phat Phuc says:

    Spot on Chicko. I reckon this bloke will be the reason bombers fans don't rate highly in the 2015 SC Ranking.
    In a nutshell he's too honest to be a super premium.