Supercoach 2015 – Jordan Lewis

Filed in Hawthorn, Supercoach, Supercoach 2015 by on September 29, 2014 • views: 3182

Supercoach Gun? Or was 2014 a Flash-in-the-Pan?

TG Footy Tracgic - Dexter

Tipped to be Hawthorn FC’s Next Captain – Lewis is a versatile player. He’s clean with the pill and can string a few possessions together. He has remarkable durability, missing one game in 2014, and about 4 games in the previous 2 years.

Lewis plays a majority of his time through the middle and a bit up forward but he’s not the biggest goalkicker; averaging a 0.7 a game this year – almost identical to 2013. He also seems to like being third man up at stoppages – averaging 3.4 hitouts a game. Supercoach rolled gold lies in Contested Possession and Disposal Efficiency – Lewis averaged 28 possessions in 2014; with on average 10.7 of them contested.

2015 Price: $588,200
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 21
Average last season: 109.43
100+ games last season: 12
Sub 80 games last season: 2
Price range last season: $460k-$644k
Missed games last season: 1 (adductor), rd 11 v GWS Giants (suspected rest)
Significant history: Averaged 96.5 in 2013, 95.9 in 2012
Suspended for 1 game in 2008 for punching Daniel Pratt in the guts
Drafted at pick 7 in the 2004 national draft

Lewis lit up the comp from rounds 13 onwards – averaging 126.2 Supercoach points. In this period – he failed to crack the SC ton twice; with the lowest score in that time being 94! His form over the last 10 rounds was nothing short of phenomenal, and aside from Rockliff; I think he was the pick of the mids in this time.

Looking over his key stats for his 2014 and 2013 Seasons; he was up on all of them except Marks inside 50 (-0.1 per game). His Contested Possessions, Kicks and Handballs were the standouts. This strongly indicates he has gone up another level. I can see him continuing this form into 2015, and possibly being a season long keeper.

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RISK FACTORS

  • Can to go missing against lesser opposition. 77 v GC (RD 5)
  • Susceptible to a tag. 68 v ESS (Hocking)
  • May get rested. RD 11 v GWS – Technically listed as an adductor. (I smell Fish)

SELECTION PURPOSE

  • If you were considering starting Lewis, keep him as a premium lock.
  • He could also be one to keep an eye on for the usual bye round upgrades, or picking him off after a dip in form or injury.

THE GOOD

  • Consistent. Lewis rarely has two bad games in a row. Not to mention durability… has missed 5 games in 3 years.
  • High possession getter. Yes, possessions aren’t everything, you need efficiency – but to be efficient, you need to get it! Averaging 28 disposals in 2014; he had a shocker against Essendon in round 2 (13 disposals). He backed it up with 37 disp. v Freo the following week. Every other game he had at least 22 disposals and had 7 30+ games.
  • Efficient. Dropped below 68% 4 times, with his lowest at 46%. Averaged an elite 73% for the season.
  • Potential Point of Difference. I say this because most will start with the Abletts, Pendleburys and the Selwoods in the guts. I think he’ll start in less than 5% of teams.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Is prone to a shocker. Look at rounds 2, 5 and 12 in 2014.
  • Could kick the ball more – had a 1-1 handball-kick ratio in 2014, kicked it more in 2013. Not that bad in the scheme of things though.
  • Plays for Hawthorn. Too many good players – They have the potential to take points off each other. That said; a strong team generally takes the loins share of points in a game.

THE VERDICT

Geez the arse end of 2014 was a shocker! I finished with 5 bloody nuggets and didn’t take my own advice and bring him in. I got on the safer pick of JPK…. BECAUSE THAT BLOODY WORKED!

If he continues his form into 2015 – watch out. His last 10 rounds he averaged 126.2 points – Ultra Premium material. His tendency to go missing has me a little worried, but his form has me excited. I’m tipping a slight increase to his average for 2015, and he may be that PoD player that gets you off to a good start. He is definitely in my sights for 2015.

50-50

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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Comments (12)

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  1. Johnno B says:

    So the JR preseason has officially started …. you guys are unreal!
    I look forward to these pages filling the massive void that no AFL on my TV will leave.

    Going into his eleventh season at a powerful club with some midfield changes. I see him at sub $600k as being a very decent pick up for a keeper. Thanks Dexter …. Dexter??

  2. Chicko says:

    Dexter has taken the new ball and smashed it through the covers for four! Well done Dex.

  3. General Soreness says:

    Brilliant work Dexter. 50-50 is bang on i think he is one player that will divide many an opinion. Whilst his form speaks for itself in the later part of the big question as you have eloquently put will be can he maintain approx 110 output to warrant his price tag. I will be in the wait and see camp and watch pre season with interest. I will be especially interested to see what Hawthorn do with their up and coming mids that havent made the side Mitch Hallahan, Jed Anderson and Alex Woodward and whether they will have any impact on the Hawthorn ball getting machines. I also agree with your statement that he will be a POD for those with the plums to pick him as a starting mid.

    • Cheers fellas!

      I was especially interested in his stat breakdown. He's almost the 3rd ruckman as weel as a mid.
      Look at his GF stats. 37 possessions, 68% eff, 14 contested, more kicks, 0 clangers, 8 hitouts…
      Bloody Jet!

  4. xMASOx says:

    Great way to open with a player fresh on everyones mind , could be a handy pod early on as the premiers normally get a tougher early draw which he seems to love playing the good teams

  5. Itchy Nuts Pieman says:

    Awesome Dexter. Certainly a great POD

  6. Big_BenFC says:

    Brilliant mate, lookin forward to them all

  7. throttlefinger says:

    Excellent write-up and insights, Dex. He's for sure a 50/50. Think I'm leaning on the arse end of the 50 and see how he does the first quarter of the season.

    Again, killer review, Dex. Way to start off this pre-season!

  8. Wattsieesq says:

    Great write up.

    For me, Lewis took advantage of the personnel (Mitchel, Rioli) that were out and continued that momentum through the year. I don't think that will be the case next year if those players are there and contributing to the mid field.

  9. Phat Phuc says:

    All it comes down to fitting him in the budget if I have to choose between Lewis and Ollie I'd go Ollie.

    Lewis is not a wise financial decision; he will finish at the same price he starts at. But for somebody considering the likes of cotchin Lewis is a better alternative.

    I would have won SC and DT last year if it wasn't for Labours mess.

  10. Seaford Scouse says:

    Cheers Dexter, I’m 50/50 with him at the moment also, a lot depending on structure and price with GAJ and Pendles locked in, all being well with them r1 then Lewis is definitely a contender for a starting spot to complement the high end mid to go in with from the off as I don’t think I’ll go with more than 2 elites in the mid to start with so need to look at the next bracket down for a bit of value. Nice points on his end of season run that certainly has the Grey matter mulling as well, so much appreciated. Cheers

  11. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    Well if his disposal count went up, contested poss up and marks down then he had a more inside focus. The fact his eff was so high and had more contested then the comparisons to Pendles is a good one as these two areas he excels at. Pendles also has decent tackle count how did that change in 2nd half of year compared to first half?