Flesh for Fantasy – Finals, Week 1

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach 2014, Supercoach Mr Crimmins style by on August 7, 2014 • views: 1255

flesh-for-fantasy-150x150G’day community,

After 17 rounds of blood, sweat and tears, here we are. For those who unfortunately missed out on the finals, bad luck. Enjoy the offseason and prepare for 2015. While for those playing August footy, your season has only just begun.

I’ll leave the motivation to these blokes who know a thing or two about success.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NR2Vu398p_E
So, let’s begin.

GET HIM IN

Jarryd Roughead (HAW) FWD – $463,800 SC

  • Next 4 Games: MELB (H), FRE (A), GEE (H), COLL (A)
  • Recent Scores: 83, 68, 120, 125
  • Breakeven: 33

$463,800 and Melbourne to come in the first week of finals, JarrydRoughead is the bloke you can trade in to win you a final. His last two weeks have been extraordinary –6 goals and 15 touches v the Dogs, and 4 goals and 18 touches v Sydney playing one out in the goal square. This week poses an interesting situation with Jack Gunston out. Many glass half-empty SuperCoaches will say he’s a chance to be double-teamed now blah blah this and that, while glass half-fullers will say more ball directed to him. Either way, he will spend more time forward now and recent form as FF hasn’t been too bad. A chance to go big on a faltering Melbourne side, Roughy at that price could win you a final.

Brandon Ellis (RICH) MID – $502,900 SC

  • Next 4 Games: ESS (H), ADEL (A), STK (H), SYD (A)
  • Recent Scores: 107, 103, 98, 68, 142
  • Breakeven: 92

Owned by 1.35% of teams, Brandon Ellis is your POD pick of the week. Playing mainly off half-back, Ellis has had a very underrated season statistically. The 68 is an outlier given how poor the conditions were against West Coast, but the rest of his season has been quite good – scoring higher than what $502,900 suggests. Playing teams around the mark in first two weeks before a potential day out in the prelim final v St Kilda makes Brandon Ellis a tempting option.

Brodie Smith (ADEL) DEF – $479,900 SC

  • Next 4 Games: BRIS (A), RICH (H), NM (A), STK (H)
  • Recent Scores: 81, 100, 144, 82
  • Breakeven: 62

Another POD option, owned by only 5% of coaches, Brodie Smith, with a run home that includes Brisbane, Richmond and St Kilda, could be a match winner. His 2 goal, 28 disposal game against Collingwood a couple of weeks ago backed up a 34 touches and a goal v Hawthorn so he has performed against two solid football sides. Brisbane away will be tough, but the prospect of St Kilda in the grand final makes Brodie Smith a good defensive option hitting a bit of form.

GET HIM OUT

Steve Johnson (GEE) MID – $565,100 SC

  • Next 4 Games: FRE (H), CARL (A), HAW (H), BRIS (A)
  • Recent Scores: 119, 135, 141, 61
  • Breakeven: 137

One man could cost you a win – Ryan Crowley. While it was good news to hear that Stevie J will front up against his kryptonite this week, many were deep down hoping he’d be suspended to solve a sticky situation. As good as Stevie J is, do you go in with him, knowing full well he cannot handle the Crowley tag, or keep and ride this one out? It depends on your situation really. If you’re playing in cut throat elimination final, might be worth looking at trading him out for someone who will help win you through to the next week. If you’ve got the double chance, I reckon hold onto him given the form he is in. Really does depend on where you’re positioned going into week 1 of the finals, but yeah, take note – Ryan Crowley is Stevie J’s kryptonite.

Brendon Goddard (ESS) MID – $501,500 SC

  • Next 4 Games: RICH (A), WCE (H), GC (H), CARL (A)
  • Recent Scores: 101, 97, 68, 79
  • Breakeven: 154

Since his suspension a couple of weeks ago, BJ’s form has somewhat been on the decline. Although, the roles in which Bomber has him playing doesn’t help. He played forward against the Dogs, which as expected, limited his output. Then the following week v Sydney played man on man vs Kennedy and was smashed – refusing to run with Kennedy at times. While it may be tough to trade out someone like BJ, until he returns to a settled role in the midfield, I think it may be time to say goodbye to BJif you’re in a cutthroat final

BREAKING POINT

Here the key break-even scores to keep in mind heading into round 16:

GOING UP

  • Brett Deledio (RICH) 67 BE
  • Toby Greene (GWS) 63 BE
  • Callan Ward (GWS) 99 BE
  • Nick Riewoldt (STK) 15 BE
  • Joel Selwood (GEE) 79 BE
  • Mitch Duncan (GEE) 56 BE
  • Stefan Martin (BRIS) 53 BE
  • Pearce Hanley (BRIS) 36 BE
  • JarrydRoughead (BRIS) 33 BE
  • Ryan Griffen (WBD) 55 BE
  • Hamish Hartlett (PORT) 62 BE
  • Dayne Beams (COLL) 49 BE

GOING DOWN

  • Marc Murphy (CARL) 120 BE
  • Luke Parker (SYD) 130 BE
  • Josh P Kennedy (SYD) 138 BE
  • Brendon Goddard (ESS) 154 BE
  • Sam Jacobs (ADEL) 132 BE
  • Rory Sloane (ADEL) 140 BE
  • Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL) 117 BE
  • Steven Motlop (GEE) 144 BE
  • Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 134 BE

All the best this weekend community.

Mr Crimmins.

 

The Countdown To Finals Has Begun:

PODCAST: FINALS 2014 ARE HERE

Round 20 Supercoach Prices And Breakevens

Round 20 Supercoach Scouting Report

 

Comments (37)

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  1. LJM says:

    Should Swallow be included in 'Get Him Out' – he's named, but will he play or be a late out. To trade or not to trade, that is the question, and could be the difference this week.

    • SCaddict says:

      If you have 3 plus trades then I'd seriously look at moving him on. His form has been indifferent ever since Gaz went down and it seems he will be playing pretty banged up for the remainder of the season, plus that risk of him being subbed out or a late withdrawal.

      I have swing cover on my midfield bench so am going to take the risk and hold him in my own situation.

      • LJM says:

        No other issues for me at this stage (except Stevie J, but I will hold him) and a couple of trades left. Might wait and see if he's a late out and have the trade button ready, otherwise take what comes, opponents in same position so might not matter.

    • Gold Rush says:

      I've dumped him – obviously playing injured and like his brother – not good at it.

      • dave2008 says:

        I have 6 trades and 200 k so will trade him out for either Hanley as my opponent as him or Malceski or Simpson. I dont like overpaying for defenders and can Hanley keep running free? Other move is Zorko out for Fyfe, Thoughts?

        • LJM says:

          I'd do both if enough $ and trades – seems you have both

          • dave2008 says:

            Yes I think I have to because there is no tomorrow if i lose having four plus trades and another tough opponent next week. But the question is Hanley or say Simpson which would leave me an extra 100 k or so in the bank instead. If I took Hanley then the differences with my opponent would be

            Me: McVeigh Mitchell Delsanto Murphy Rockcliff Jacobs Sandi Dalihaus Parker

            Him: Hodge Burgoyne D Swallow (He will prob bring in Rockcliff and match me) Libba Stevie J Nic Nat Ryder Zorko Cloke

            So its whether its worth the extra 100k to block Hanley or hope a Simpson can score about the same or Malceski and take the extra 40k. Or if I think my differences are better than just block Fyfe and Hanaley?
            Any thoughts really appreciated and post your decisions and I can help you.

  2. BCHawks says:

    Great stuff Mr.Crimmins once again. I like that you pointed out Goddard as a get him out but I also have David Mundy whose form has been equally as bad and was wondering who would be the priority to get rid of? Essendon have the better run home but Mundy plays well against top sides. Or should I get rid of them both? I have 2 trades left.

    • SCaddict says:

      I'd probably give BJ one more run around as the Bombers do score well against the Tiges and he's probably overdue for a big one.

      However I'd take my advice with a serious pinch of salt as I do play in you this week in one league so have bit of a vested interest there ha ha.

      • BCHawks says:

        So what you are saying is that I should trade out BJ? Anyway still deciding what I should do but good luck for the final.

        • Big ring says:

          Yeah the Goddard one is a hard one. I’m thinking of getting rid of him this week. I was either him or Steven Johnson for mcglynn or minson for Goldstein. All sideways I know, and I’m normally against them but this week is an important one!

  3. @HJ_Mitch says:

    Where have you been on the twitter, Crimmo. Laryngitis or what?

  4. Jeff says:

    Looking to get rid of Pav, I have $548,900 so just short of Boomer. Next best option? Gray, Roughie, Buddy S Martin or just keep Pav?

    • SCaddict says:

      I'm also looking at ditching Pav for the finals to try and give myself that extra edge against some very strong week 1 opponents.

      McGlynn has been in ripping recent form averaging 111 over the past month and the Swans have a tasty final four weeks so that will likely be my selection. I do already have Buddy and Stef though.

  5. Conor Young says:

    If u guys had to pick a POD to put in your team fwd or def who would it be? Thx

    • charlie says:

      mcglynn

    • SCaddict says:

      Yeah McGlynn is only owned by 2% which is pretty unbelievable for the 7th ranked forward for the season! Has been in blistering form recently and a good run of games to finish with.

      Brodie Smith has been one of the stand out defenders in the second half of the season and likewise has a good remaining draw. Also only owned by 5% so very much a POD too.

  6. Wes says:

    Thank Mr Crimmins
    Agreed in the Johnson out call… I'm in elimination finals, so I cannot cop another sub 70 game from him.
    Steve J and James Kelly out
    Sam Mitchell and Kade Simpson in was my go…

    I am with LJM above on Swallow… Is he really right? Time will tell I guess.

  7. Andrew says:

    Roughhead plays for Brisbane???? I wish.

  8. Brandon2416 says:

    Thoughts on dal santo as a vc pick against GWS?

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      Not for me, NDS hasn't gone large in a very long time and given you want 130+ out of your VC I would look elsewhere.

  9. Tony says:

    LAST roll of the dice !
    Finished 3rd in bot leagues. 3 trades left and $142K in bank.
    TEAM
    Malceski, mcveigh, bartel, b smith, Burgoyne, Mitchell – non playing bench
    Kennedy,Libya, beams, sloane, Cochin, pendelbury, stevi j, greenwood -non playing bench
    Natanui, sandilands – non playing bench
    Harvey, danger field, Parker, Martin, franklin, McGovern – bench blain Johnson.

    Can do a couple things
    Upgrade greenwood or Johnson to selwood or rockliff – 1 trade used
    That means have to carry McGovern for season as no cash to upgrade later, but still 2 trades left for injuries.

    OR

    Trade greenwood and McGovern, swing Mitchell into mids and get k Simpson in defence and mcglynn in forwards.
    That leaves 1 trade left but 6 swans in team. They have good finals run, could that work ?

    Let me know what you guys think !

    Tony

    • Tony says:

      Please excuse my grammar , that post is pretty ordinary looking at it now !
      Tony

    • Kev says:

      I like option 2 if you're willing to risk it with that one trade up your sleeve.

      How do you match up for your qualifying final, Tony? If you think you'll go down no matter what you do consider holding fire and then going BANG BANG next week.

      • Tony says:

        I match up pretty well, but opponent has selwood and fyfe, so slightly out gunned in the mids I'm thinking.
        Got him covered in backs and Fwds, exactly same ruck combo
        Lost to same team last year in GF, so would love to knock him off this week, but is my heart outweighing my brain ?

  10. big aggots says:

    Does anyone think Cam Wood can get 100+ vs GCS with Dan Gorringe their only ruck?

  11. Kev says:

    Similar to Roughie in the could-maybe-win-you-a-final basket, is Tex Walker on anyone's radar? 377k, easy finals run (lions, rich, north, saints) and has returned 91 and 98 last two weeks

  12. Pete says:

    Need a decent ruck for the finals (swinging Martin into the fwd line), but can only afford $475K. I've narrowed it down to:

    – Ben McEvoy…great couple of weeks recently and playing 100% game time in the ruck, fighting for his spot. My only concern is bad form against Geelong (Rd 22)

    – Dean Cox…fantastic career averages against all teams he faces for the remainder of the season (Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast). Has monstered GC since they entered the comp. Big question is of course whether he still has it, injury risk, as well as poor score this season against Melbourne

    …OR do I just leave Martin in the ruck and trade in Roughie??? I'm going round in circles community!!

    • Joey Jo Jo says:

      Leave Martin in the ruck!!!! Unless Luey comes back, he is practically a guaranteed ton. Then just consider your forward line option – Roughie would be hands down better option than Big Boy or Coxy.

  13. Jim says:

    Hello all,

    My Forward line is:
    L Parker, P Dangerfield, R Gray, D Martin, S Martin.

    Which FWD would be the best to add to this? Price is not a problem.

    Thanks!

  14. Nate says:

    Looking to repair my backline, currently it’s

    Mcveigh, swallow, pittard, McDonald, Day, Litherland and a non playing bench. I’m currently thinking Swallow to Simpson but that needs me needing a like for like trade for Litherland. What does the brains trust think?

  15. Aarmy says:

    I've got 3 trades and 250k bank left but one has to be used on Gunston, so Roughy there. However got a few more injury and form issues. What is my biggest concern/first problem to address out of:
    – d.Swallow
    – C.Wingard
    – S.Mitchell
    – D.Mundy
    I'm playing 2 out of 3 elimination finals this week so 2 trades will need to be used, just not sure where to throw the next one. Wingard was on the block the last few weeks but other injuries have saved him. Swallow and Mitchell injury concerns and while Mundy has been ok I could upgrade to a Rockliff but other areas may give a better points upgrade.

  16. sharker4 says:

    With only 1 trade left I dont have the luxury of trading Stevie J out. Playing in an elimination final, just hope the attention on Stevie J allows Selwood to go big to limit the damage