Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 14

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach, Supercoach 2014 by on June 19, 2014 • views: 15318

mick-the-madApologies for our later than usual version of “TAT” this week. It’s still a TAT but this week we are going “Tight Arse Thursday”

Community, I don’t know what I have done to deserve this but the Supercoach Gods came through for me on the weekend, that’s for sure. Coming into Sunday I was as good a done in at least 3 of my league match ups, and touch and go in the other 2. Then the carnage happened. Beams OUT! Steven Johnson OUT! I watched on as Tom Langdon came on the ground to cover Beams for me while 3 of my opponents could do nothing with both Beams and Johnson in their sides, two with no cover and the other with just cover for one. I went on and won all five league games for only the second time this year.

For those of you affected by the carnage, I do feel for you. There isn’t much you can do now and who knows the Gods might shine on your team this weekend. The good coaches out there will learn from this and if it’s too late this year, then next year they will ensure they will have adequate cover on the bench.

I personally am a little light on coverage in my bench spots but I have taken advantage of the dual position players so that I can cover for a varying degree of outs in any given week. Another key part of this will come in the form of Stefan Martin, who I will be bringing in this week and who features below as one of our tight arse options this week. For those of you who are light on bench cover I will show you that with maybe only one or two smart trades over the next couple of weeks you could cover your whole team with limited bench cover.

Below is my current team after my trades this week. A few turds in there, one especially (Trent Cotchin)but instead of burning two trades to turn him into JPK I am just going to hold. Those trades will come in handy come finals, and as I am out of contention for the major price, holding now is the best option.

Image 1

As you can see at this point I only have 3 playing players in my bench spots, Langdon in my midfield and both Amrose and Shenton in my forward line. Not many right? Yet if you analysis it a little closer, then you can see that in any given week I would have cover for:

  • 1 Defender – Langdon, 1 Midfielder – Shenton, 1 Ruck – Martin
  • 1 Defender – Langdon, 1 Midfielder – Shenton, 1 Forward – Ambrose
  • 2 Midfielders – Langdon &Shenton, 1 Ruck – Martin
  • 2 Midfielders – Langdon &Shenton, 1 Forward – Ambrose
  • 2 Forwards – Ambrose &Shenton, 1 Midfielder –Langdon

If in the unlucky circumstance that I have more outs than in the 5 circumstances I have listed above then I would either cop the doughnut or go into my trade reserves. That would depend on what stage of the season it was. If we’re talking finals then I would be burning those trades without question. The good thing about my current set up is I shouldn’t have to burn anymore until finals, which I’m hoping will give me that edge when I get there. So as you can see, it doesn’t take all that much for you to cover a varying degree of possible outs in any given week. Something to think about when you’re making your trades over the coming weeks.

Ok community enough about strategy, and let’s get into why you came to read this article, Tight Arse Options. There have been a fair few defenders feature in this segment over the last few weeks. I hope you all jumped on one or two of them as they have all performed well, and although you won’t be getting them for a bargain basement price anymore I do still think they are allrelevant as your D5 or D6 spots. Here’s a recap:

Shannon Hurn

Average to date 91.88
Breakeven 56
Current Price $484,100
Priced to Average 95

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 91-95pts

What I said:
“Hurn will never be in that top bracket of defenders but you already know that. However if you are looking to finish off your backline then I don’t think you could ask for a better D5 or D6 selection. I’m a strong believer in the good safe bet value picks for defenders. Hurn ticks those boxes for me but I guess the real risk comes with the injury side of things. Unfortunately no stat book can predict when an injury or illness could strike. If there was I wouldn’t have picked, Mitchell, Rockliff, Mumford, Fasolo, and Zorko this year”

Final Word:
Amazingly now, if you take Hurn’s injury affected score out of his system he would be averaging 104 supercoach points a game, making him a top 6 defender. However don’t get too carried away with this average. His score of 157 last week, included an 82 point last quarter that included a 40 point mark in the dying seconds. I don’t make the rules on how they scale these games but this score had be scratching my head. Suspect he won’t score as high again this year and still see him in the 91-95 point bracket.

Luke Hodge

Average to date 87.7
Breakeven 65
Current Price $448,500
Priced to Average 86

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 95-99pts

What I said:
“He won’t be first choice at many supercoach selection tables this week so if you do pick him you are getting yourself a very handy D5 or D6 POD. I strongly believe he is a top 10 defender who is at a bargain price that should have many more interested than are currently doing so. With two byes this year he could very well play out the year but that is where the risk lies with this trade. I’m giving him some serious thought to come into the Mayhem, if not this week then maybe next.”

Final Word:
As you may have noticed from above, he didn’t quite make it into the Mayhem and maybe it was lucky that he didn’t. Hasn’t set the world on fire yet and as was the risk with Hodge he missed round 8 with a sore calf. I suspect he was always going to miss as part of his management with the Hawks bye coming in round 9. I wonder will he have another 2 week rest at the next scheduled bye? If you take his injury affected score out of his system he averages 93.66 for the year and I do still expect him to finish out the year with an average of 95-99pts. The big risk with Hodge will be if he can stay on the park from here on out.

Pearce Hanley

Average 94.2
Breakeven 33
Current Price $478,700
Priced to Average 92

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 95-99pts

What I said:
“The problem with outside players is that they tend to be a little easier to shut down. For all of you who owned Hanley last year, you will remember that he went through a patch were the opposition sent the heavy tag to him and completely nullified his impact on the game. In that period he had scores of 49 and 42 and had many coaches trading him out of their sides. Through a combination of him handling the tag better and not getting as much attention from taggers he did go on to pump out 4 more tonnes after this period and average a very respectable 93 over the last 9 games of the year.

I do think that period will help Hanley develop further and deal with the tags put on him over the course of the rest of this year. I’m not saying he will break through tags and score tonnes every week but I don’t expect any of those scores in the 40’s like he experienced last year. Encouragingly for Hanley too there are plenty of other Brisbane players in good form at the moment that would warrant a tag over him at this present time. Redden, Green, Zorko and even Beams may soon be on that list. Yes he may have some sub 80 scores on the run in but they will be offset by the scores we seen at the weekend, and if you’re willing to take the ups with the downs then Hanley is your man.”

Final Word:
Anyone who brought him in last week would have been very happy with his 133points return. He didn’t receive any attention last week. Rockliff, Redden and Green all had run with players and Hanley got a lot of uncontested possessions, 20 out of his 29 to be precise. I suspect the attention will continue to go to those players for a few more weeks but be wary at some point Hanley will once again get a tag. Until then expect a few more 100+ scores. Suspect that 95-99pt range is on the money.

Heath Shaw

Average 93.36
Breakeven 43
Current Price $468,700
Priced to Average 90

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 93-97pts

What I said:
“Shaw, just likely Hanley is very much an outside player. He has been averaging 13 and 13.4 uncontested possessions a game in 2013 and this year so far, which equates to approximately 66% of his possessions. It is his effective disposal and his kick to handball ratio that sees him score well in supercoach. When those numbers are high he will score well and when he adds marks from opposition kicks, contested marks and a few tackles like he did over the weekend, that is when he jumps up into the elite defender bracket and pumps out the big supercoach scores.

Again as we said with Hanley above the problem with outside players is that they tend to be a little easier to shut down. We have seen it already this year against Richmond and you’d have to think that the opposition will put work into him if he starts hitting form again for the Giants. Encouragingly for Shaw too, there are plenty of other Gaint’s that would command the attention of the opposition coaches so he should get off the leash in a few more games this season. Like Hanley will have days where he gets a lot of attention and I’m sure his really big scores will also be offset by a few more sub 70 scores. Again if you’re willing to take the ups with the downs then Shaw has to be considered for your remaining defender spots”

Final Word:
Much the same as with Hanley above anyone who brought him in last week would have been very happy with his 109points return. He didn’t receive any attention last week,and got a lot of uncontested possessions, 18 out of his 27 to be precise. He too will have games where he will be shut down but I suspect he has a few more 100+ scores in him before the year is out. Suspect that 93-97pt range is on the money.
Going back into the forward line this week we have two very tempting players. As of Wednesday evening only one of them is featuring in the most popular trades this week. The other surprises me that they aren’t coming into more teams. Let’s start with him!

Chad Wingard

Average 82.09
Breakeven 29
Current Price $390,500
Priced to Average 76

Chad is a rare breed of Supercoachplayer, one that wasn’t affected by the second year blues. He is now in his 3rd year and he is proving to be a great pickup at number 6 in the 2011 national draft.

Image 2
Chad started this year very well too, cracking the tonne in his opening two games. After that the big scores dried upsomewhat and then in round 11 he got a Jay Schulz knee to the head while only on 11 Supercoachpoints. All his owners will remember he eventually got scaled down to 10. Since then he has come back with two really strong scores of 112 and 92.

Image 3
Chad’s current price is a direct result of that score of 10 in round 11 which has now left his rolling average and hence is very low breakeven this week. Even though this was an injury affected score what we must also note is that Chad was having a really bad game before this and this injury did happen late in the third quarter. At best Chad was probably looking at his worst score for the year of about 40 before he came off concussed. If we go back up to the table above we can see that the only game of note that Chad has scored well in without scoring a goal was in round 1 against Carlton,where he scored 100 Supercoachpoints without kicking a goal. He has kicked goals in every other game this year apart from round 11, and has had subpar supercoach scores in games where he has kicked one goal against West Coast and two goals against North Melbourne. It would be hard for him to continue to kick bags of 3 or more in the remaining games this year, and this would have me slightly worried going forward. Taking a look at his stats and comparing this year to last, paints a better picture for us.

Image 4
As you can see there is a lot of red in the difference column. The major concern here is every supercoach player’s bread and butter and that is his disposals. Chad is down 5.6 disposals a game on last year. The stats that have gone up are ‘Marks inside 50’, ‘Goals’ and ‘Tackles”. All this paints the picture that Chad is playing a different role this year than last. He is playing more time forward and not getting the same run through the middle as he was last year. As a result he isn’t getting the pill as much and if he wasn’t kicking more goals like he has been, his Supercoach scores would have suffered even more.

If you take a look at the forwards this year, not too many are setting the world on fire and we can’t argue with Chad’s average excluding his injury game of 89.3. This would sit him well inside the top 10 forwards for the year to date. However my big concern with Chad is that he will have a couple more games with no scoreboard impact and this will result in a few more scores in the 50-70 bracket. The fact he doesn’t look like he will be given any more midfield time than what he has been getting so far this year, also means he is unlikely to offset those low scores with any big monster scores. To date his highest score this year has been 112 and I don’t see him pushing too far past this.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 89-93pts

Final Word:
There aren’t too many forwards that will average you over 90 and at this current price you would have to say that Wingard is an ideal F6 for all of our Supercoach teams. The only concern I have with Chad is that there will be games where he won’t have scoreboard impact and without a goal or two he will struggle to score well, when he has limited time through the midfield. If you have all the big guns up forward like Dangerfield, Gray, Martin and Harvey, then Chad would be a perfect candidate for your F5 or F6 spot. However if you are short on a couple of those guys mentioned above then I wouldn’t mind if you gave Chad a miss this week, with the view to bringing one of these guys in.

Stefan Martin

Average 107
Breakeven -69
Current Price $242,700
Priced to Average 46

If someone asked me two weeks ago to predict who the most traded in player in round 14 was going to be, I don’t think I would have had Stefan Martin in my top 100, never mind the number one spot. Yet here we are on a Thursday night pre round 14 and Stefan has come into over 14,000 teams this week. If you’re one of those coaches are you right to be bringing him in or if you’re not one of those coaches, are you missing out?

Let us jump in and find out, shall we.

For those unfamiliar with Stefan he was drafted by Melbourne in the 2007 preseason draft with pick number 3. He had 7 relatively frustrating years at Melbourne only playing 63 games in that period as he suffered numerous injuries over the journey. The Brisbane Lions then picked him up in November last year as they looked to bolster their big man department, in exchange for picks No.53 and No.73.Lion’s national talent manager Rob Kerr said:

“Structurally, a player of Stefan’s ability is critically important as it provides us with a flexible tall who can be effective both in the ruck and around the ground. We view Stefan as a natural support ruckman who can cover the ground really well. He presents another marking option up forward, and has also had experiencing playing down back. The shifting ruck rules seem to suit players with Stefan’s athletic capabilities.”

Stefan debuted in round 12 as the Lions ruck department was depleted with both Trent West and Matthew Leuenberger struck down with long term injuries. Knowing this might be his last chance at ALF level Stefan has showed great form in his first two games.

“Realistically it is the last chance to prove myself,” Martin said. I missed all of last year with injury and the first half of this year as well. I started wondering whether I’d keep doing them (hamstrings) my whole career. You never know if you’re going to overcome that. We’ve tweaked my weights program a bit, and I feel on top of it now.”

Going back through the years we can see just how limited his game time has been.

Image 5

He has only played close to a full season on two occasions so far in his career to date but the encouraging sign for all those who have brought him in, is that he managed to average a very respectable 86 for the year. This proves that he has the capability to score well over a long period of time. The fact that he will be the lone ruck at the Lions for at least 4 more weeks has to be another positive for him. So far this year he has produced scores of 112 and 102 against two of the best ruckmen in the comp at that too. He scored 112 against Will Minson and the 102 against Shane Mumford. It doesn’t get easier for him this week either as he will have Sandilands as his match up.

Taking a look at what he has done so far this year, remembering it is only a two game sample we can see how he has scored so well. It might also give us an indication of how he might go for the rest of the season.

Image 6

The obvious stat here we should be looking at is the hitouts. In his two games so far he has averaged 30 hitouts a game. If you’re wondering where that places him in the comp your answer would be 10th.

Image 7

What’s even better is that unlike a few of those ruckmen above him on the table he isn’t just a tap ruckman and offers far more around the ground. So far he is averaging 16.5 disposals, 9 contested, 5 clearances, 4 tackles and 3.5 marks. These are massive numbers for a ruckman and it doesn’t surprise me that after his two games he is averaging 107 points a game.

Going forward I haven’t seen anything that would suggest that he can’t keep these numbers up. On current form I would have to say if he hadn’t been injured earlier in the year he would be streets ahead of Trent West as Brisbane’s number 2 ruck. Over the next 4 or 5 weeks he will still be their number one ruck and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t still average 100 points a game to that point. The problem might come when Leuenburger comes back in. He is currently listed at 3-4weeks. I don’t think Martin will be dropped but I think they will go back to playing two ruckmen like they did at the start of the year with West and Leuenburger. However when this does happen his scores will drop right off as he shares the load in the ruck. So if you are short on trades Martin isn’t going to be a player you want on your field come supercoach finals and thus might not be the right player to bring in for you. However if you have a few left up your sleeve, he is going to be a great pinch hitter over the next 4 weeks and could easily be turned into a premium player when Leuenburger comes back in. Alternatively he goes to your bench to give you cover both in the Ruck and up forward, which is what I plan to do with him.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average next 4 weeks: 99-103pts
Predicted Average after that: 80-84pts

Final Word:
Martin fits perfectly into my team as both my F6 for the next few weeks and as cover in my rucks for the rest of the year. If you can fill a similar role in your team then he is a must have pick up this week.

So community are you jumping on board? Leave me a comment below for check me out on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

Get the Scoop On All The Teams This Week:

PODCAST: Line By Line Review

Round 14 Supercoach Prices and Breakevens

Round 14 Supercoach Scouting Report

 

Comments (26)

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  1. Tom.B says:

    Bloody brilliant

  2. Jonty says:

    Need help who should I get Kennedy, Ward or Sloane

  3. Marty says:

    Should I pick up Honeychurch this week or Kersten

    • King Joffrey says:

      Honeychurch if you need that mid/forward swing. Not sure how long Kersten will stay in the team with Geelongs rookie policy.

  4. Chooka says:

    I need to get in Stefan Martin, thinking about trading out Riewoldt? Or trade for Ambrose? Help guys?

    • King Joffrey says:

      I’d be downgrading reiwoldt to Martin if you must have him!
      Use the cash to upgrade Ambrose when he maxes out in price!

    • Mmmmm this is an interesting question – Normally I would say hold your premiums but in this case keeping Ambrose for another couple of weeks might be a better option.

      Riewoldt and the Saints look done

    • Chooka says:

      Thanks guys, it’s a bloody tough call!

  5. King Joffrey says:

    Howdy folks

    Looking to upgrade a last midfielder this week. Is it worth taking Fyfe at his cheapish price or is Kennedy worth the extra spend?

    Thanks guys

  6. Nick says:

    G’day community,
    Trading in my last midfield premium this week,
    Who do you think? Stevey J or Fyfe

  7. Crowmagnon says:

    Great stuff Mick. I'm getting on Martin as F6. Show me the money!

  8. GarglesnarfFC says:

    Possibly my favourite article this year MTMI! I am thinking about Stefan this week, Nroo down to him and Langford to HShaw.

  9. James says:

    Hi Mick,

    What do you think about Jack Grimes? A worthy option as a D6?
    Currently have Darcy Gardener at D6 with Tom Cutler and Alexis Georgiou as bench coverage. Only have $64,000 in the bank.

    Is it worth getting Grimes or save some cash and upgrade Gardener to Nick Malceski later on? Have 11 trades left.

    Would love your thoughts,

    • I'd wait it out for Malceski. Grimes has been playing shut down roles over the last few weeks and is just too big a risk even coming off the back of a good score last week. I'd let him slide for a better option later

    • pete says:

      Steer clear of grimes m8 he killed me earlier in the year two inconsistent for mind 85 one week 50 the next . I traded him out for sam docherty . And have langdon as bench cover .

  10. Daniel says:

    Why are ppl so excited about Martin as cover for rucks. Since when has cover for rucks ever been needed? You get 2 hulks, if one goes down, stiff luck, you trade for another. Seems a waste of a trade just for "potential" good scores at F6 versus waiting a week and using that trade for a F6 premium keeper along with all the potential rookies in the wings.

    • Azmataz says:

      Totally agree mate. It is too much money to be sitting on the bench for mine. I am passing on Martin and letting McGivern keep doing what he's doing, with Ambrose on the bench for a solid 70 odd cover. And Dericks is good enough on the Rucks bench. I have enough trades left to deal with injuries, so will happily bring in Nic Nat if Sandi or Sauce go down.

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      I think Martin is great as cover if he fills the F6 role while doing it. If you aware already full premo on that line, then I tend to agree you don't need him, although I suspect that he will still earn over $180k before Luey comes back which makes him a handy late cash cow in your Fwds if you need one.

    • wes says:

      agree with Gargles…
      I brought in Martin for my F6
      I already had cheap ruc cover in Longer if mummy or Sandi drop out.
      He is simply an F6 avging near 100 at rock bottom $$. for his price it is worth it.
      Lions will possibly keep him as ruc and move Leuy to fwd (he goes well when he pushes there) to cover browny when he retires. So Martin may hang around longer than expected/

  11. Fevolenko says:

    What is the communities thoughts on trading out Cotchin for Miles? Cotchin is leaking cash ATM, while Miles could earn my team some quick cash over the coming few weeks. Cheers guys.

    • wes says:

      I had someone suggest Miles to me this week as an option. So they thought he might be ok
      My thinking is is you have a prem priced like a premo, and he is avging mid range scores, then downgrade to a mid range scorer and use the $$ for someone else.
      if you want to takea little risk, it isn't a bad one… cannot trust cotchin IMO