Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 13

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach, Supercoach 2014 by on June 10, 2014 • views: 1856

mick-the-madCommunity, welcome to our round 13 Tight Arse Tuesday. Not going to delay today, so let’s get straight into it.

I covered forwards over the last couple of weeks but don’t think we can ignore some value options down back this week. The two guys I will look at are very similar in many ways and I suspect both may help our teams come home strong. The best thing is, they are both tight arse options and as you know by now, I do like a good bargain, especially down back.

 Pearce Hanley

Average 89.9
Breakeven 46
Current Price $439,800
Priced to Average 86

For those of us not too familiar with Hanley, hewas signed by the Brisbane Lions in 2007coming from a solely Gaelic Football background playing as a junior with Ballaghaderreen GAA club in the heart of rural County Mayo. For those of you familiar with Game of Thrones, think wildlings from north of the wall. For those of you unfamiliar with Game of Thrones, seriously, why?

Hanley was put on the rookie list with a view of converting him to Australian rules footballer, and after he made great progress adapting to the game he made his debut in 2008. He was then drafted by the Lions in 2009 with the bargain pick of 95 in the national draft. I’m sure we all know by now that he is an AFL convert, as I can’t remember a Brisbane Lions game I’ve watched where Bruce McAvaney hasn’t made reference to that fact, and how good a player he is for someone who hasn’t grown up playing the game. We know Bruce!

From a Supercoach stand point we have seen some very positive developments since his first full season in the Lions best 22, increasing his average every year going into 2014, with a high of 95.7 in 2013.

Image 1
So far this year he has only averaged 89.9 but what we must remember is there have been some mitigating circumstances. If we take a look at his performances this year it will be a little easier to understand the drop off in average from last year to this.

Image 2
He actually started the year really well and was averaging 109.6 after the first 3 games. Then things started to go wrong for Hanley and all those coaches who went into the season with him as one of their starting defenders. In round 4 against Port, Hanley came off in the 3rd quarter with a Hamstring strain, and subsequently missed the next game. He had a poor game on return in New Zealand against the Saints but it later transpired that he had a back complaint and he then missed the next game in round 7. Since then Hanley has been building form, along with his fellow teammates, with Brisbane winning 2 of their last 4 games and going down to narrow loss at home to Essendon in round 8. I think it is fair to say that the North Melbourne result is an anomaly as a fair chunk of their team were struck down by gastro before the game. In that period since his return from injury Hanley has averaged 94.75. If you take out his injury affected score in round 4, he would be averaging 96.7, much in line with what you would expect at the start of the year.

So how does Hanley score his points and is there anything we need to be wary of bringing him into our sides?

Image 3
Hanley is very much an outside player. He has been averaging 15.5 and 15.2 uncontested possessions a game in 2013 and this year so far, which equates to approximately 70% of his possessions. It is his effective disposal and his kick to handball ratio that sees him score well in supercoach. When those numbers are high he will score well and when he adds a goal and a few tackles like he did over the weekend, that is when he jumps up into the elite defender bracket and pumps out supercoach tonnes.

The problem with outside players is that they tend to be a little easier to shut down. For all of you who owned Hanley last year, you will remember that he went through a patch were the opposition sent the heavy tag to him and completely nullified his impact on the game. In that period he had scores of 49 and 42 and had many coaches trading him out of their sides. Through a combination of him handling the tag better and not getting as much attention from taggers he did go on to pump out 4 more tonnes after this period and average a very respectable 93 over the last 9 games of the year.

I do think that period will help Hanley develop further and deal with the tags put on him over the course of the rest of this year. I’m not saying he will break through tags and score tonnes every week but I don’t expect any of those scores in the 40’s like he experienced last year. Encouragingly for Hanley too there are plenty of other Brisbane players in good form at the moment that would warrant a tag over him at this present time. Redden, Green, Zorko and even Beams may soon be on that list. Yes he may have some sub 80 scores on the run in but they will be offset by the scores we seen at the weekend, and if you’re willing to take the ups with the downs then Hanley is your man.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 95-99pts
Final Word:
If I was looking to finish off my backline then Hanley presents a real good value pickup this week. I think he will easily be a top 10 defender and a perfect D5 or D6.

Heath Shaw

Average 89.9
Breakeven 40
Current Price $437,600
Priced to Average 85

Shaw has been very relative in fantasy terms since 2006 and has consistently finished among the top 10 averaging defenders in that time. That’s not so say that he has been a dead set lock in most teams in that same period, in fact he’s been far from it. Shaw has burned many of us in the past with his inconsistent scoring and his incredible ability to find a way to get suspended or dropped which has contributed to him not playing a full season since 2007. Most still haven’t forgiven him for his 2011 suspension for betting, which resulted in him missing the last eight rounds of the home and away season. What made it worse was he was one of the most traded in players in week he got suspended, and with no reverse trade button available at the time he burned so many coaches. Scares are still visible for so many of us today.

Image 4
It really can be best summarised by looking at the above table. His ‘average points’ column is outstanding when we consider he is a defender. Remember not too many defenders will average you close to 100pts a game over a season. However a quick run-down of the ‘games played’ column can quickly remind us why we were hesitant in selecting him at the start of the season. Since 2007 he has missed on average 4.33 games a season, with his best result in that time frame of 3 games missed in both 2010 and last season in 2013. I’m sure consistent isn’t often a word used to describe Shaw but when it comes to missing games; Shaw is as consistent as they come. That is a problem when you consider Shaw has already missed one game this year in round five, and history tells us he is likely to miss again.

From a fantasy scoring perspective however, inconsistent is the word that best describes Shaw. “Frustrating” is another that springs to mind.

In both the last two seasons while with Collingwood Heath had managed to score greater than 120 on 5 occasions, but in both those seasons he managed to score below 80 on 4 occasions. Consistently inconsistent.This year has followed a similar pattern as we can see in the table below.

Image 5
So far this year he has had 2 scores above 120 but these have all been offset by 2 scores below 70, including the 34 he scored against Richmond in round 10. Most would look at that score and assume it was injury affected but I’m afraid it was a tag affected score, on the back of a heavy loss to the Giants. This is the main reason why Shaw is so cheap right now, and since that game, both he and the Giants have shown that perhaps that horror defeat has been a turning point in their season. Since then the Giants have gone down in narrow losses to Essendon and Hawthorn, and Shaw has scored 95 and 127 supercoach points in those games. What I liked at the weekend gone by is that Shaw spoke to the playing group before they went down to the rooms after the defeat to Essendon. This tells me he is taking his senior role at the Giants very seriously and he wants to lead his club out of their midseason form slump.

So how does Shaw score his points and is there anything we need to be wary of bringing him into our sides?

Image 6
Shaw, just likely Hanley is very much an outside player. He has been averaging 13 and 13.4 uncontested possessions a game in 2013 and this year so far, which equates to approximately 66% of his possessions. It is his effective disposal and his kick to handball ratio that sees him score well in supercoach. When those numbers are high he will score well and when he adds marks from opposition kicks, contested marks and a few tackles like he did over the weekend, that is when he jumps up into the elite defender bracket and pumps out the big supercoachscores.

Again as we said with Hanley above the problem with outside players is that they tend to be a little easier to shut down. We have seen it already this year against Richmond and you’d have to think that the opposition will put work into him if he starts hitting form again for the Giants.

Encouragingly for Shaw too, there are plenty of other Gaint’s that would command the attention of the opposition coaches so he should get off the leash in a few more games this season. Like Hanley will have days where he gets a lot of attention and I’m sure his really big scores will also be offset by a few more sub 70 scores. Again if you’re willing to take the ups with the downs then Shaw has to be considered for your remaining defender spots.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 93-97pts
Final Word:
As both are similar players at similar prices this week I’d have to give Hanley the nod over Shaw, if only because I just can’t come to trust Shaw will stay on the park for the rest of the year. He is also more likely to get tagged out of games and thus why I think he will average slightly less than Hanley.

What do you think community, is Hanley are better pick? Am I too harsh on Shaw? Will you be bringing in either this week? Leave a comment below or hit me up on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman

 

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Comments (190)

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  1. Tom says:

    Last upgrade… Parker or Swallow

    • scano says:

      who would you be upgrading for them?

    • pieofgod says:

      If your talking D Cwallow of GCs fame i'd wait 2 rounds – he's arguably the best defender of the year with McVeigh and K.Simpson but he had his worst score of the year on the weekend and will be cheapest in a forthnight i reckon. Gun though

  2. Jesse says:

    Looking at getting Shaw in this week? Do you think I should spend the cash on swallow or save some money in getting Shaw then get Swallow later on

    • Nishy says:

      use your own name bootsma jeez ya knuckle head

    • Wait a couple on Swallow as his price will come down. If you've got the trades to get him later, then go a Shaw or Hanley this week.

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      hey Jesse. If you decide to go with Shaw just make sure all your belts are done up tight and that you keep your arms inside the vehicle.

      Enjoy the ride. Personally I would much prefer to go Swallow.

  3. scano says:

    Who would be the best option in defence if you could afford anyone?

    • Kev says:

      Have a look at season averages mate and pick who you don't have. Bartel, Simpson, McVeigh, Swallow spring to mind

    • IMO
      1. Simspon
      2. McVeigh
      3.Swallow
      4.Bartel
      5.Malceski
      =6. Hibberd, Walker, Johnson (when fit)

    • BennyGan says:

      I'd probably go with mcveigh, the man is just pure class. You know what you are gonna get from him each week. Love Kade too but he can sometimes get lost in games and struggles to get back in. But if you can afford anyone, you can't really do wrong with these two.

  4. jack says:

    still dont have pendlebury and im loking to make 3 more upgrades to Finnish my team, so you think it is worth getting him in over someone like johnson so i can get my team up to full premo quicker or is he too good not to have

    • Not too good not to have if the rest of your midfield are in the top 10 scoring midfielders. Johnson would be in that bracket of Midfielder and represents better value for money.

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      Gaz Pendles JPK and Rocky should be final team targets regardless of their $$ pricetag. Just getting the job done.

  5. Marchi says:

    Upgrade langdon for hanley = full backline

    • SCaddict says:

      If you are going Hanley you would definitely want to have decent D7 coverage. Not the most durable player out there and likely to miss a week here or there.

      He's also just too up and down for my own liking. Can produce some huge scores which can suck folk in only to then go missing for a few weeks in a row.

      He's cheap for a reason.

      • Disagree with SCaddict for probably the first time .. wtf

        Hanley has only missed 2 games in three years before this year so I wouldn't be discouraged from bringing him in for that reason. He is inconsistent alright but then again so are all defenders. I think we can all agree that the top four defenders this year are Simpson, McVeigh, Bartel and Swallow and yet they too have been inconsistent.Below are their two worst scores so far this year

        Simpson: 61, 76
        Swallow: 59, 80
        McVeigh: 82, 84
        Bartel: 80, 81

        • SCaddict says:

          Don't mean to quibble but he's actually missed 4 games in the past 2 years including one week he was both injured and suspended. He did have a great run before that though and looks fully fit right now.

          Another minor turn off for me with Hanley is the Lions killer finals draw that includes Crows, Pies, Freo and Cats. Just offering my lowly contrary opinion to stimulate debate that's all! :)

          • Great stuff SCaddict,

            as I said I think this is the first time I've ever had a difference of option with you. Your input is always great and your opinion (certainly not lowly) is always welcome around these parts! Nothing wrong with a healthy debate :D

  6. Kev says:

    Lovely timing for the TAT article this week, Mick. Looking for options to replace Michael Johnson and you've swayed me onto Hanley at the moment.

    Ibbo jumped into Johnson's role when he went down and pumped out a 102. Will be about 420k next week. One to watch

  7. Neilsy says:

    There should be a hate page purely dedicated to Dom Tyson who cost me and other super coaches games this weekend.I know mcaffer tagged him but he made no effort to try and do something he just accepted the tag and decided to not participate in the game.Very weak effort dosnt like the hard stuff at all.Have a look at hannerbery at how he loves a contest.Dom Tyson is a marshmallow

    • Neilsy, although he's not a rookie, this is really his first full year and you'd have to expect that from an inexperienced player. Its a learning curve for him and I'm sure he will be a SC gun in a few years time.

      Take it as a lesson for your SC team too – don't rely on your rookies to bang out tonnes every week. Tyson has been an awesome pick up this year so be thankful you got his scores to date and the cash he has made. Turn him into a premium this week.

      • BKW says:

        Well said Mad Irishman – personally I upgraded Tyson before his bye and if you held him though the byes last week was the week to upgrade him!

        Tyson, along with Langdon and Polec, had been fantastic – but you can’t get too attached to your top scoring rookies!

  8. Harry says:

    great work again Mick, back liners have given me a few headaches this season. I have Corey Enright in at the moment and he has been very frustrating. What does everyone think I should do? Tough it out? Or upgrade him if his form doesn't dramatically change? Thanks community

    • Nev says:

      time to go I think, had him in the whole year but he is injury prone and looks a shadow of his former-self, if you don't have any other great pressing issues give him the chop, I did this week for H.Shaw.

    • tough it out

      only move him on after you are full premo everywhere else. Better yet keep him as cover and loophole him with your D6 spot.

      • Philthy says:

        I've decided to keep both Suckling and Enright and use loophole each week to save trades with all the carnage

  9. dean says:

    Great article, Found my trade this week, D.Tyson to P.Hanley, which sets me up perfectly next week to swing hanley into defence, and bring Mcdonald into Mid, and upgrade him to SteveJ or Kennedy

  10. Tom says:

    Hi guys, need your thoughts. This is my team.
    Backs: Swallow, bartel, burgoyne, hurn, langdon, hanley (georgio, cutler)
    mids: ablett, pendles, beams, rockliff, watson, selwood, kane mitchell, kennedy (hartung, acres)
    rucks: sandi, mumford (derickx, thurlow)
    fwds: dangerfield, parker, martin, zorko, shenton, fasolo (lloyd, cameron)

    I have to trade watson so i was thinking of going watson to ward.
    Thoughts on going derickx to lobb?
    I currently have 10 trades left and $120,000 left in the bank.

    Thoughts??

    • Watson to Fyfe
      Fasolo to Stephan Martin

      $$$ in the bank for you to turn Langdon into a McVeigh, Malceski or Simspon next week

      • Tom says:

        Stephen Martin? After one good game, no thanks. See how he goes first

        • Gary rohan the spud says:

          1 good game he averaged 96 for melbourne a few years back and played 21 games that year

        • GarglesnarfFC says:

          He is the No1 ruck for 5-6 weeks, will score solidly until then, maybe even average 90+. Then your stuck with a 0 to trade out. If you are flush with trades then it's not bad option, as you should at least make 100-130k off him, if you very few then you might want someone for more than 6 weeks IMO.

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      maybe stating the obvious options here but seems like watson to Steven Johnson and Hartung to S Martin are your best choice (via shenton). I think Lloyd might still get a second chance at it.

      Dont like Lobb or McGovern's Job security so personally I would avoid these two.

  11. Steve says:

    Thoughts on Goddard as a replacement for Watson, he should get more of the ball now without Watson.

    Cheers

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes he could get more ball but he could also get more defensive attention from the opposition. Quite different players btw with Jobe being more the inside type of mid.

      Nonetheless BJ Floggard would still be a decent addition to anyone's team though there are plenty of fantastic choices out there.

      Dollar for dollar I think it's hard to look past Stevie J this week for those who don't already have him.

      • Tom says:

        Johnson has crowley in sc finals though

        • Steve says:

          Already have SJ, the other thought was Sloane with Adelaide's easy run home

        • SCaddict says:

          Not sure we should base our selections on what may or may not happen in one particular round. He could go back to tagging Jelwood like he did last year for all we know.

          Rocky may have to deal with a Crowley tag in the SC Finals too but that wouldn't stop me picking him if he ever dips down to $516K. I doubt that will happen though but you never know.

  12. TMac says:

    Thoughts on Rory Lobb's job security for 3rd ruckman

  13. Dutch Life says:

    Would love some my advice on my team.

    DEF: Bartel, Swallow, Simpson, Birchall, Jaensch, Langdon (Cutler Gregiou)

    MIDS: Gary, Pendulberry, JPK, Sellwood, Watson, Murphy, Cotchin, Steve Johnson( Hallahan, Acres)

    RUCS: Sandilands, Goldstein( Derickx, King)

    FWDS: Danger, Parker, Martin, Zorko, Shenton, Taylor ( Ambrose, Cameron)

    9 trades, $151,000 in the bank, was thinking:

    Langdon>McVeigh

    Watson> To any promo I can afford.

    Would love your advice community, Cheers

  14. Brandon2416 says:

    which rookie has the best job security at the moment?

  15. joel says:

    Any one got new about Johnson From fremantle?? how bad is his injury? cheers

    • The Filth says:

      AFL site says knee injury 4-6 weeks.
      Wait for update…

      • SCaddict says:

        Yeah both he and McPharlin are expected to miss at least a month of footy with medials. That's right on the threshold in terms of whether to hold or trade.

        So the decision will then come down to the quality of one's bench cover and how many trades left in the kitty and also where you stand in the rankings and individual league situations.

  16. Gab says:

    hey guys, does anyone know the extend of michael johnsons injury, is it worth keeping him or trading him to hanley??

    • SCaddict says:

      See the post above mate. Johno is expected to be sidelined for around a month unfortunately.

  17. James says:

    Hi Community,

    Need some advice,

    Who should I trade in for Tyson?
    Callan Ward, Steve Johnson, Rory Sloane or Kieren Jack?

    If you have any other suggestions say below.

    Thanks

    • James says:

      Already have Ablett, Pendlebury, Selwood, Swan, Murphy, Libba and Beams

    • SCaddict says:

      All those are super solid choices. Despite indifferent form over the past month I reckon Stevie J represents the best value but indeed all those guys you listed would make brilliant additions to your team.

      Really hard to say who of those selections will finish with the highest average over the next 10 rounds so why not pick the cheapest and use the savings elsewhere?!

      • James says:

        Is it worth trading in someone else other than Steve Johnson as everyone is likely to do it?

        • CraigN says:

          Watson out for year, someone at bombers will be likely to score better. Godard, Heppell, Chappy?

        • SCaddict says:

          Yeah as I said all those guys are worthy selections so just pick who you like most I reckon. There are no right or wrong answers here.

          Jock already lobbied Sloane's case hard on yesterday's podcast. I'm a Swans supporter and reckon Kizza Jack is awesome but a tad too pricey for me atm. Ward keeps on producing in a struggling team.

          But frankly what other people are doing shouldn't affect who you choose imo. Most coaches have Ablett, Jelwoood, Beams, McVeigh, Swallow, Danger, Sandi, Jacobs etc. but that shouldn't stop you picking those guys either as they are being picked for a reason. No coincidence that all the top ranked teams have virtually all these guys either.

          For me I'm all about trying to put the best possible team out on the park given the limited salary cap and trades we all have to work with.

          I'll let other folk worry about being 'original' with a bunch of PODs if that's how they want to play ha ha.

          • throttlefinger says:

            You…are…on…FIRE! Loving your comments today, SCaddict.

            And great insight on KJack and Sloane. Have Jobe so am battling between Ward, Sloane and KJack. Think your comment about KJack is valid, although don't think he's past his original price so while not a great value, if he's going 120+ it's still worth the sticker price.

            Agree with your last line. It's easy to go POD crazy (finger pointing to self) and as a wise man once said, if everyone has a player, there's probably a good reason they have him.

            Actually be interested in everyone doing a pre-season formula of how many PODs, mid pricers, etc you should have during the 4 stages of the SC season (start, pre-byes, post-byes and finals). That would be a lively debate, I'm sure.

            • SCaddict says:

              Yeah that would be an interesting discussion for sure.

              I guess it depends on what you define as a POD. If it's less than 5% ownership then Bob Murphy is my only current POD premo. If that's raised to 10% then I could chuck in JPK and Pav as well.

              But the vast majority of the highest ranked teams probably only have a few PODs at most. I started the season without Pendles and Smurph to create a POD situation by omission. However as boring as it seems if I started with them I would no doubt be ranked higher than I currently am.

              Definitely a note to self for next season he he!

              • throttlefinger says:

                I did as well. Think that's the lesson learned this season for me as well. Don't go wild with the PODs and, more important, don't get cute with the super elite SC players. Build around them and other undervalued prems/elites.

                In other words, what the top 10 teams did. D'oh!

                Did well with JPK from the start. Should've done Smurph as well. And, of course, Gazza. Basically started season with one foot solidly in the bucket.

                PODs are 10% or less by my definition. Would be interesting to see how many agree or think 5% or less is POD.

    • sharker4 says:

      Sloane has been very consistent this year, he's my choice as I have already made the trade.

  18. Remy says:

    Steve Motlop?

    • Kev says:

      Been seeing this bloke mentioned a lot this week, why? No scores of note, and if you're after a 350k fwd at this stage of the game you must be in real trouble…

  19. Max says:

    Hey Mick
    Got a few problems in my team. I had Sdt last year and liked his game so decided to start with him. I also jumped on Adcock at bargain price before he pumped out 4 90+ scores. They have produced jack all last few weeks and are hurting my input which was a solid 2300 with those two high 30's. To add to these woes I have Watson injured and Hartung injured.

    Who out of them is a priority to trade out?
    Cheers

    • Kev says:

      Jobe should be first, goneski for at least 8. If the bombers aren't finals contenders by then I can see him missing the year.

      Flip of the coin between scottie d and adcock. North probably the easier run home

  20. Lol says:

    what are peoples thoughts on cotchin, stay or go?

    • JX20 says:

      Stay loyal, he's still averaging 87 the last 3 weeks. Stevie J has averaged 77 the past 3 games yet quite a few are lining up to get him.

    • CraigN says:

      I have Cotchin and will be keeping for now, mainly because I also have Watson.

      Cotchin will get Crowley this week :(

      • Kev says:

        Cotchin's last 5 against Freo: 130 (2011), 107, 122 (2012), 144, 137 (2013) – Ave 128. Crowley has gone to Deledio in the past

  21. Gary rohan the spud says:

    Need some serious advice (only have 8 trades left)
    team is full of premos except 1.
    this is where it gets tricky mitch hallahan is my 1 non premo on field and he HAS to go.
    i have two options

    Option 1
    trade out hallahan and sub robbie gray or Dangerfield into the midfield and bring in taylor walker costing 1 trade

    Option 2
    trade out hallahan sub gray or danger mouse into middle for 1 week
    in comes jeremy mcgovern
    have to have either Cameron, mcgovern or impey on field for 1 week
    then next week can upgrade impey to 510k midfielder such as Swallow

    • Gary rohan the spud says:

      so it turns out im 3k short for taylor walker so it will still cost me 2 trades

    • Kenny Powers says:

      I too only have 8 trades left after being smashed all season with injuries and suspensions. Starting the year 0-3 didn't help the "HOLD" theory! Anyway, I have a couple more upgrades to go than you but am holding this week and would recommend you do the same .. plenty of rounds to go and plenty of premos that will become available for the right price after a shitty, underpant staining score. Nothing worse than running out of trades before finals and sitting around twiddling the thumbs and praying for no injuries … think I might be trying to convince myself here …

  22. CraigN says:

    Sam Mitchell should be back for round 15, a bit ahead of schedule. He may drop around $80k after another 2 weeks.

    Anyone leaving room in their team for Sammy?

    • scano says:

      was thinking about keeping Langdon but im getting to caught up in my arousal curve and will trade him out before mitchell gets back in ;)

    • Wes says:

      Good point craig. He should drop some and present a nice option for us.

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      A couple of issues here, one will be the risk of that injury occurring again, and two if you bring him in after his price drops which would be round 17 at the earliest, that leaves you just 6 games to get value from him, assuming he comes back early. I would be more inclined to complete your upgrades sooner rather than later and trade down to him if an injury occurs.

    • Rocksta says:

      Suckling to Sammy just before SC finals………….. should almost be a straight swap by then

  23. Wes says:

    Hi all
    Mick, great article… And awesome to see you on to offer advice like you did.
    I appreciate it and didn't even ask a question.

    Thoughts on Lowden please.
    Talk is Hale and McEvoy could come back in… My guess is they will not come straight back in, but maybe get a week in vfl to get up to speed.
    Thus Lowden is set for one more rd… And in afl fantasy scorin that means Price rise and my hearing the dulcet mooing of a cash cow.

    What does everyone else reckon?

    • Derek says:

      Nope. He won’t play

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      1 week of price rise is barely worth the effort of even considering the trade. Don't bring him in unless he is going to make you between 100k as a bare minimum & 200k as a possibility, and I don't think he'll play more than one more week. I would suggest Lobb, but I doubt his chances of more than a week are fairly thin as well.

      • wes says:

        Point for me is that I have Sandi and Mummy as starting rucs, with Longer and Derickx on bench.
        I don't need them all there… I can move one on, chas in my $$ from either of those two… but who to bring in that is low cost and even stands a chance of rising a little.
        My R4 is totally superfluous now, and I can use his $$ for upgrading a Tyson to a whomever I want…
        THus out of all the players, Lowden is cheapest (key factor) with possibility of making me a little dosh.
        Understand your and Dereks points… he may not play again, and he isn't going to make me 100k out of 1 more game.
        He will make me another 20K maybe though… if he plays 1 more. small wins better than no wins.
        AM also at the point on my game where I have to make 2 trades to get my upgrade. I get two trade a week on it, else I lose them. So I have to lose a bencher and a mid-pricer to get my premo now.
        If I was on SC, then I wouldn't do it this way, for sure…

        • Kev says:

          Go for it, wes. Rookie downgrades are beginning to thin dramatically. As long as you've got cover at R3 you'd be desperately unlucky if both sandi and mummy went down in the same round.

          Is thurlow a dpp in afl fantasy? Why not go him and open up a ruck/fwd swing if you are trading with the mindset of having a non playing R4

          • wes says:

            Thurlow is a DPP on mine… 115K
            Lowden is 125K on afl fantasy, up 10k already. As long as he gets a run, even as a sub, he'll go up further.
            So yeah – Thurlow is a possible option there if Lowden isn't going to get a run for me… have another 10k in the bank (which would have got me Rocky last week, not this week).

            Next week's plan (injuries being nice to me) – what do you reckon on these?
            Option 1 – Higgins/Shenton OUT – Simpson (def) and bencher/cow IN
            Option 2 – Tex and Sam Lloyd OUT – Harvey and bencher/cow IN
            Option 3 – Shenton/Tyson OUT – JPK or Barlow and bencher IN

            Issue is I still a couple roughies sitting in 6 or 8 possies. Higgins (dpp def/fwd in mine), Tyson, and Tex.
            Am torn – I reckon DEFs are almost a waste of time with how erratic they are.
            So someone like Harvey coming in for Tex would be awesome – same with the Barlow/kennedy options. But DEF just kills me.

  24. The_Darwin_Ducks says:

    Great read up and would definitely consider Hanley but ive already got the bugger!
    I have gone Watson to Stevie J as most others have i believe
    Getting rid of Fasolo this week and upgrading him to someone 400K ish or lower
    thoughts are Zorko or Wingard for my F5/6 position

    i already have Dangerfield, Gray, Martin, Dalhaus, Higgins, ________, Cameron, Lloyd
    Whos the bterr option
    thanks

    • Rocksta says:

      I think Zorks as Wingard ( as good as he is) is being played predominantly forward ( Thus inconsistent scoring).

  25. Pots says:

    L Taylor out his week. Will have $537,100 for either FWD or MID. 11 trades pre decision.
    Looking at Stevie J to complete MIDs (via Shenton to FWD and lose swing) or Parker to FWD and keep Shenton in MID as swing set. Have Hartung and Acres on MID bench but will downgrade when new cow options present.
    Thoughts?

  26. scano says:

    Hibberd or Hanley?

  27. scano says:

    is having 4 players from one team too many ?

    • JX20 says:

      Only if that team is regularly winning. Swans share the points around

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      On one line, or your whole team?

      One line is probably yes, as if that team gets flogged you really suffer (such as Geelongs massive thumping in Sydney). Across your whole squad, I don't see an issue with it but any more is beginning to push the envelope.

      In my DT league last week I played a clown with 30 Hawthorn players, hard to score more than 1900 that way, even with Roughys 164.

  28. john snow says:

    Hi all, I'm in trouble once again. its been a bad year

    Swallow, Malceski, Enright, Georgio, Clurey
    Hooker, Suckling, Bews

    Ablett, Pendles, Sloane, Bartel Shenton, Acres
    Libba, Selwood, Beams, Tyson

    Sandi, Mcevoy Derrickx, Thurlow

    Danger, Buddy, Wingard
    Martin, Reiwoldt, Fasolo Lloyd, Ambrose

    13 trades and only 49K in the bank. The most obvious problem is Bews in my backs. Not much cash to play with. One option I have is to go skinny in the rucks and drop Mcevoy for Martin which enables me to go Georgio up to a Hanley or Shaw type. Any other ideas appreciated. thanks

    • Derek says:

      I would drop Derrickx and upgrade Bews. McElroy back this week

    • Rhubarb says:

      One trade heavy option might be to move on a Fasolo or N Roo for S Martin, then Dericx to a $102k spud. This would generate enough to upgrade one of the 0s in Def next week. Martin can the provide interim Ruck cover should Macca take longer to return or a future short term injury occur.

      Like I said trade intensive but it looks like you need the cash generation.

  29. john snow says:

    Yeh thought of that but turning Derrickx into Martin only nets me $64K. Bews is only worth $147K and is at least playing and Georgio hasn't played for a while and is $185K. $250K aint going to buy me much either haha.

    • john snow says:

      Make that $298K

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      This my take JS. Don't know if it's any better than Derek's ideas but at least it's an alternative.

      13 trades is a fair few, but apart from Shenton and Ambrose I can't see any cash generation. Assuming Shenton plays you could trade Tyson down to oBrien and free up 370k. O'Brien will be som kind of cash cow, and if he ever gets a full game could be a reasonably good one.

      You can then turn Georgiou into Shaw and still have $120k or so to upgrade Shenton when he peaks, or Fasolo if you prefer.

      • john snow says:

        yeh thanks mate, I'd thought of that, just means I'll have Shenton on the ground, Obrien on the bench. I think this might be the go, I can't have Bews on the field stinking it up again. He's my worst trade for the year so far

  30. john snow says:

    I could also ditch Fasolo for McLovin which gives me the coin to turn Georgio into someone like Rob Murphy, Jaench, Mackie etc…. A few grand shy of Shaw or Hanley….. its not looking good.

  31. Kenny Powers says:

    Community – Is it worth dumping Hooker? Backs are Swallow, Bartel, Malceski, Hooker, Suckling, Langdon + 2 cheapies so no real backup on the pine. Looking to hold this week as down to 8 trades already but the red light is flashing on Hooker despite still averaging 90 .. as it's more of a points thing than a cash grab, is he worth persisting with or do I go sideways/up?

    • Rocksta says:

      Considering you've only got 8 trades left Kenny, and Langdon still on the field, I don't think you can afford to trade Hooker out.
      Get to full Premo first and look at Hooker later in the piece.

    • wes says:

      Could one not argue that would be better to keep Langdon in than Hooker? Hookers score have been terrible of late and he is not only costing points but $$ as well.
      Langdon for his price, IMO, is scoring reasonably. He isn't a 100 pointer. If you can go to a Burgoyne perhaps for Hooker?
      8 trades left does give you very very short options as rest of season moves on… you just may want to consider holding off despite your thinking being logically based, because you probably need at least 1 a week to cover things and you don't have that.

    • Kenny Powers says:

      Thanks for the replies. Think it will be hold

  32. Billy says:

    Rocky or JPK Mick?

    Going to splurge on upgrading Watson so tossing up between these two. I am a massive Rocky fan so leaning towards him although he is more likely to get a low score.

    • Mozz says:

      If you want someone consistent, then JPK is your man. These two are however really expensive and as they said in the podcast, it's too late to get them

  33. Scano says:

    Hibberd or Hanley ?

    • Garglesnarf FC says:

      I think they should score about the same 90-95ave from here, so given Hanley saves you some $42k to use elsewhere, I would go that option.

  34. Sarah says:

    Hi guys,

    Would love your thoughts on my team:

    Def: Swallow, McVeigh, Bartel, Hibberd, Jaensch, Hanley (Georgiou, Bews)

    Mids: Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Selwood, Ward, Sloane, Rockliff, Shenton (Taylor, Acres)

    Rucks: Sandi, Jacobs (Currie, King)

    Fwds: Danger, Parker, Martin, Zorko, Reiwoldt, Wingard (Lloyd, Cameron)

    This weeks trade (which I think I'm going to stick with) were Langford to Hanley and Watson to Parker.
    If anyone has any alternative suggestions, I'd love to hear them.
    Cheers guys.

    • Garglesnarf FC says:

      That looks pretty solid Sarah, you could also consider RGray instead of Parker if you have the cash, but honestly that is a great looking side with just the one upgrade to go. Can you get the cash for that last upgrade?

      • Sarah says:

        Thanks Gargles!
        I would love to get Gray, but can't afford him if I want Hanley too.
        If Langford is named this week I may just use the one trade and go Watson to Gray.
        Not much cash remaining, so will need to do a downgrade at some stage to do the final upgrade. But with the Parker and Hanley option, I'm only 1 upgrade away from full premo… with Gray I'm still two away with no cash so that might end up making the decision for me.

  35. Mozz says:

    Hey everyone, would really appreciate someone's input on my team!

    DEF: McVeigh, Swallow, Bartel, Simpson, Langdon, Enright (Georgiou, Cutler)

    MID: Ablett, Pendles, Beans, Selwood, Libba, Rockliff, WATSON, N.Jones (Hallahan, Acres)

    RUC: Sandi, Jacobs (Thurlow, King)

    FWD: Danger, Parker, Martin, Zorko, Shenton, Taylor (Ambrose, Lloyd)
    12 trades left and $97,100 in the bank

    Was looking to hold but now with Watson going down, i'll need to trade him. Was thinking him to
    Hanley (to open up mid/def swing), otherwise Sloane or NDS. Really unsure which of these three

    Then it would be a matter of choosing where to work on next. I could upgrade Langdon to Malceski (depending on who i go with when trading watson) OR I could work on the Fwdline, maybe trading out taylor for stefan martin to open up ruck/fwd swing with thurlow, or maybe even a Drew Petrie?

    Any help would be greatly appreciated! Thanks :)

  36. Jazza says:

    Finding it hard to believe that A Swallow is not getting a mention for anyone’s team! Proven 100+ avg at 477k.

    Hate the sideways trade but anyone still with polec would be wise to look at the swap.

  37. mrfosak says:

    Need some help folks, team is:

    Def: Swallow, McVeigh, Jaensch, M.Johnson, Bartel, Walker (Langford, Cutler)
    Mid: Pendles, Beams, Selwood, Libba, Rockliff, Goddard, Wines, Macrae (Shenton, Acres)
    Ruck: Sandi, Lobbe (Derickx, Thurlow)
    Fwd: Danger, Martin, Zorko, Pav, Wingard, Ambrose (Cameron, Lloyd)

    9 trades left and $370k in the bank.

    Plan was always to bring Gaz in this week, leaving cash in the bank for that final fwd upgrade, but with the injury to Johnson and the inconsistent selection of Langford i'm wondering if i should look to fix other areas first.
    Stupid, Stupid me for not starting with Gaz this season!
    Cheers Community.

  38. Cam says:

    I’ve got Langford at D6 and B Martin at D7, looking at turning Langford into Malceski; he’s expensive but as Jock said he’s looking majestic and the swans have a pretty good run home, notably their last 3 rounds with saints, dogs and Richmond. He’d finish my backline with McVeigh, Simpson, swallow, hibberd, and Bartel. Rest of the team is done to my pre-season list I made except for one forward spot but I have 2 fwd rookies making me money, plus lloyd if he gets a game and shenton on the bench in the mids. Winning all my leagues in comfortably in the top 2% which is my best season get so far. Flip em for gray or Parker in a couple of weeks.
    Worth the 536 for Nick Mal?

    • Sarah says:

      Definitely. I'm very jealous of that completed backline!!!

    • mrfosak says:

      Yep. Do it.

    • Tman says:

      Too much coin for defense IMO. But since rest of your team is done, go for it. Personally wud get Hanley and spend the etxtra 75k mid.

      Very nice backline.

      • Cam says:

        Tman, I’m set in the midfield; gaz, Pendlebury, JPK, Rockliff, Libba, Selwood, beams and Murphy. Forward line is my only line without full premium (danger, dusty, Dahl, pav, Zorko… If they’re all considered premium) and my fwd rookies still have coin to make so I’d prefer to let them summer and increase in value a little longer then go for gray or Parker to finish it.

  39. bob says:

    2 trades to do this week.
    Watson out, Tyson out.
    Can decide who to bring in. JPK, Ward, Fyfe, Stevie J.
    Can afford all options just end up with less cash in the kitty.
    Leaning towards Fyfe and ward to save a little bit of cash but like the way JPK has been scoring.
    Any feedback from the community on this?

    • Sarah says:

      If you dont have any other upgrades on other lines to do in the near future then I say get the best two, otherwise balance between the best/expensive and value.

    • Kev says:

      Not a bad problem to have, bob! IMO you can't be too stingy when it comes to upgrading your mids just to save some cash. Get the best, most consistent scorers you can. Out of those 4 I'd go JPK and Ward.

    • bob says:

      i do have one more forward to get in which I am looking at parker. I think i would need to burn two trades to do that now. Watsons injury has put me out of plan A and onto plan b.

    • wes says:

      I like JPK – consistent bugger!!!
      Freo has easy-ish run coming up. Fyfe could pick up now. But Geelong's run isn't terrible either. So I'd be a little bit split between Fyfe and Stevie…
      Steve has ability to get those massive scores – good for VC/C loophole. JPK doesn't seem to have that in him.
      Agree with kev – don't go stingy on MIDs…
      last word – JPK and Stevie for mine. I consistent, other can be brilliant

    • Cozza says:

      I would definitely include Ward as one of my ins. I brought him in a few weeks ago and have been super impressed with his output.

      He has only dropped below 100 twice this year – once in round 5 when he was concussed (48) and subbed out of the game early and then the following week (92) when returning from concussion. It seems to be a bit of a trend to have a quiet game after concussion. If you take those two scores out of his season average, he has an average of 125 which is higher than JPKs. Even if you include the second score of 92 his average is 122. That is a super average for his $588k price tag.

      He also has a low BE of 75 this week, so will not be cheaper.

      • RoganJ says:

        Cozza mate, can we keep Wardy on the downlow? Picked him up a couple of weeks ago and loving his work – even on quiet games still tons up. Hoping people avoid him!

  40. Goku says:

    Hey guys quick Question

    Keep Cox or upgrade to Mumford?

    • wes says:

      GWS have Lions, Carlton, Sydney, Adelaide next 4.
      Reckon Mummy will have field day against Lions and Blues… so expect his price to rise there.
      If you want him, I'd grab now.

  41. Jayden says:

    I didn't start the season with GAJ (Been many sad lonely nights over the last few months) is there going to be a better time to bring him in?

  42. Stevie G says:

    What's the community opinion on heppell?

    • Derek says:

      I was just thinking about who might benefit from Watson being out and he came to mind. Has averaged 102 so far this year, is $513k.

      Not a premium yet, but he might just become one with Watson out.

  43. john snow says:

    As Watson goes that frees up each teams best tagger/ on baller

  44. Tman says:

    G'day guys

    Have the following upgrades left to complete my team. Open to suggestions

    Def:
    Jensch to Hanley/Hibberd/ S mitchell
    Langdon to Bartel

    Mids:
    Griffin to Pendles/Rocliffe
    Jelwood to Barlow
    Goddard to JPK

    Fwd
    Franklin to Harvey
    S martin to Parker

    Probably wont have much bench cover when I am done.

    • Mozz says:

      Jensch to Hanley is a good move
      Langdon to Bartel is a great move

      Griffin to Pendles/Rockliff is a good move
      Jelwood to Barlow is a horrible move, idk why you are thinking of doing that
      Goddard to JPK is a horrible move, idk why you are thinking of doing that

      Franklin to Harvey is a horrible move. Franklin is starting to ton up
      S martin to Parker is a horrible move. you're just wasting trades

      • Derek says:

        I like your first two, but after that I couldn't see anything that made a lot of sense

      • Tman says:

        I was with you for a while mozz. But the Fwd commens made me realise we are on different books.

        How can upgrading stefan Martin to Luke parker be a terrible move?
        I also see merit in getting consistant scores of Harvey vs the inconsistant outputs of Franklin.

        The mids suggestions are fair enough. Its sideways and goddard and Jelwoodc can be keepers. Can you please explain your thinkin mozz.

        • Wattsieesq says:

          Upgrading Steph Martin this week is terrible, but in a few weeks it is great.

          • Tman says:

            oh i see. I was pointing out my trades for next 3/4/5 weeks.

            I just brought martin in for fasolo. No way I'm trading him this week.

  45. Michael says:

    I only have 4 trades left but my team is all premiums, except Trenr Cotchin! I have bench cover in all positions. Is it worth taking a risk and trading cotchin to swallow, or not enough trades. In top 250. Cheers

    • The Filth says:

      Tough call Michael. If I only had 4 trades I would probably hold onto them. If injuries hit you may be in trouble although you say you do have bench cover.
      Cash is also a major factor – if you don't have cash you may not be able to get the premo you want to replace Cotchin with.

      My team is currently ranked 65th. I have had Cotchin since the start of the season. I have 12 trades left and Watson to replace but I must admit I am tempted to take a risk and trade Cotchin this. I have enough cash to get JPK next week and then one downgrade and one upgrade to get my full premium side. This will leave me with 7 trades.

      All I can say is go with your gut and try not to have any regrets later…

    • Derek says:

      must hold.

      Cotchin is looking at getting Crowlied this week by Freo. But with only 4 trades left you must hold.

  46. RooBoy says:

    Hi Guys & Girls,

    I'm wanting to grab some cash out of Langford to spend on upgrading Fasolo and Higgins.
    Would then only have Langdon to upgrade to a full side.

    I know the DEF downgrades ($120 to $130K) are a bit thin at the moment, so I'm willing to take a punt on someone who hasn't yet played but may be a chance soonish. I still have cover in defense in Laidler.

    Does anyone know a cheap DEF who may fit the bill?

    Thanks in advance.

    • Beady Eye says:

      Someone threw Fuller's (WB) name out there the other day. Might get a run at some point.

    • Derek says:

      Aylett is the obvious one. Has played 2 games already and has been talked about as a possible replacement in the guts for Watson this week.

      Every week I keep waiting to see Fuller's name in the doggies team.

    • RooBoy says:

      Thanks Beady and Derek

  47. Tim says:

    Hi Guys,
    Appreciate some help here.
    7 Trades Left / $120,000 Cash

    Def: Simpson, Burgoyne, Langdon, Watts, Enright, Laidler (Gardiner, Bews)
    Mid: Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Libba, Ward, Bartel, Cotchin, Fyfe (Shenton, Hartung)
    Ruck: Sandi, Mummy (Derickx, Thurlow)
    Fwd: Danger, Martin, Breust, Zorko, Higgins, Franklin (Kennedy-Harris, Lloyd)

    I was considering getting rid of Derickx or Kennedy-Harris to generate some cash to upgrade Laidler.

    Thoughts please???

  48. Ben says:

    Need to trade billings out, zorko or wingard. Have 465k to spend if you have any have suggestions.
    Thanks guys.

    • Nathan says:

      I think we all agree Wingard is freakishly talented. But his perma forward role means he needs to kick goals to ton up. I noticed on the weekend he was attending a few more center bounces which is encouraging. But at this stage, his current primary role has me worried his ceiling avg will be 90ish. Zorko has been awesome the last two weeks and I cant see me going backwards from here. Im confident Zorko will avg 100 from here on in. So go Zorko

    • RoganJ says:

      Zorko – have both but Wingard stresses me out each week! Zorko can go low but nothing like Wingard. If i had my time again, i'd avoid Wingard…

  49. Gary says:

    Hey everyone i need a defender at about 425 thousand and the best options seem to be jaensch, robert murphy and cale hooker who are all averaging about 90
    Help please ??

    • Nathan says:

      Hi Gary, do you need to do the trade this week? I often see people jumping on players that they can afford that week rather than maybe holding out until enough cash can be generated elsewhere to get in a proven premo. So just ask yourself first do you really NEED to trade this week first! If you must Jaensch is prob the best option. Jack Grimes is a far cheaper option and may be hitting some form and would be a great POD, but you'll need big plums :)

  50. Marcus says:

    Hey guys,

    My team is as follows:

    Backs: Swallow, Bartel, McVeigh, Langdon, Walker, Enright (Giorgio, Clurey)
    Mids: Pendles, Swan, Beams, Rockliff, Selwood, Libba, Murphy, K.Mitchell (Honeychurch, Acres)
    Rucks: Sandi, Nic Nat (Thurlow, A.Smith)
    Fwds: Danger, Zorko, Reiwoldt, Walker, Shenton, Fasolo (Ambrose, Cameron)

    Plenty of cash, looking at a few options. GAJ is obviously a must and at first i was swapping Mitchell for him, however looking at the break-evens i feel i won't lose money if i just hold off another week. Thoughts on the following trade option:

    Langdon–>Hanley and Fasolo–>McGovern gives me another rookie in my forwards, however pockets me 500k cash to upgrade to GAJ and completely upgrade my forward rookies who are all making money still over the coming weeks.

    Should i be bringing in McGovern at this stage or should i bring in a Stefan Martin or a premium forward? If Martin scores another big one i was thinking upgrading either ambrose or cameron to him next week (also opens up a swing option with thurlow). Would love your thoughts, thank you!

    • Marcus says:

      alternatively could go langdon/hanley, fasolo straight to s. martin. which still gives me 390k to upgrade mitchell to GAJ

  51. john says:

    I still have Tom Mitchell. Think he could be a a top 6 forward during the finals. Whats the go with him, he doesnt seem to be coming back!

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