Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 10

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach, Supercoach 2014 by on May 20, 2014 • views: 10162

Mick the Mad is BACK

Community, its nearly over, we’re nearly there.

Two weeks of the byes over and just one more to go. Now I know most people did reasonably well in this bye week but unfortunately there were a few more who got burned by late outs, under performing premiums, injuries and sub affected scores.

I went into this round thinking I’d have 19 players available with a 14-5 premium to rookie ratio and full of optimism. Fast forward to Sunday and I’ve got beat in most of my leagues, and dropped quite horribly down the rankings (again!)

Fasolo didn’t get named, JKH got the starting vest, Rockliff a late out and Zorko may as well have been and all of a sudden I have effectively 15 and a half players. If you were in a similar position I hope you stayed calm and stuck to your trading plans.

I know a lot of people were justifying getting rid of Rockliff because he was effectively going to miss two games, as he had the bye this week. For me it is still a wasted trade. Sure I lost out on the 100+ points Rockliff was likely to give me but when you are all out of trades come finals, the one trade I have up my sleeve may just be worth 200-300 points over the last 2-3 weeks when teams get struck down by injury and the dreaded general soreness.

How many doughnuts did you have at the end of last season? So if you run into a similar situation this week, remember it is just one round and maybe taking a hammering on the chin for just one round is a better idea than last minute, sideways panic trades.

That’s my two cents anyway. Now shall we get into our TAT?

Shannon Hurn

Average to date: 76
Breakeven: 47
Current Price: $412,300
Priced to Average: 80

I know I keep harping on about it but I hate paying over the odds for defenders. They are notorious for losing value, and even the big Guns down back in Bartel and McVeigh produced ordinary scores over the weekend, meaning they too will go down more over the coming weeks. That is why I have no problem in filling D5 and D6 with some smart choices at good value. Then use the cash saved to allow you to fill out your Midfield with the guys that really bring in the big scores. For example if you could choose between Joel Selwood and Kade Simpson, who would have in your team every time? You pay practically the same for both this week.

As a reminder I consider anything under $450,000 a value pick down back and Shannon finds himself meeting this criteria with plenty to spare.

He has dropped $59,700 so far this year to find himself at his current price. For those of you unfamiliar with Hurn’s output over the years, he has fluctuated between the 82-93 mark over the past 5 years, with respectable averages of 87.5 and 91.4 over the last couple.

TAT1a

One stat that is somewhat alarming from the above table is the games played column. He only managed 12 last year and 15 in 2010. So far this year he has only played the 4, which also ties into my next question.

So why is he so cheap now?

He suffered a medial strain in his right knee in round 2 and was subbed off early for a score of 7. He missed four rounds and upon his return in round 7, he has produced two really solid scores of 97 and 101, suggesting he is over any lingering issues with his injury. Obviously with his injury score now out of his rolling average, his breakeven has dropped to the very low 47, meaning we are unlikely to pick Hurn up for any cheaper than he will be this week (barring another injury affected score that is).

Looking into his game and stats a little, he is very much a rebounding defender. Ignoring last season as he had a game where he played less than a quarter before doing an ankle injury, and focusing on 2012, we can see he averaged 17 touches a game, with a very friendly kick to handball ratio and an elite 75% efficiency. He also took 5 marks a game and 3 rebound 50 games, ticking all the boxes for a rebounding defender.

TAT1b

One really interesting stat I have found while digging into Hurn’s past, is he has quite a large differential between his average in a winning and losing side. The below table shows just what I’m referring to.

TAT1c

In 2013 he averaged 10.5 Supercoach points more per game in a winning side and in 2012 it was a staggering 17.1pts a game. I guess the next question we should all be asking ourselves is how many more games will West Coast win from here on out?

I am horrible at footy tipping but my best guess is the Eagles will go 8-6 for the rest of the year. If I be nice and allow an average of 100 in a winning side and a 85 in a losing side this would pop Hurn into that 93 average range again. If you know something different and you expect West Coast to dominate for the rest of the year, then by all means jump right on board. If you think I’m been generous with 8-6 then maybe you should stay away.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict:

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 91-95pts
Final Word:

Hurn will never be in that top bracket of defenders but you already know that. However if you are looking to finish off your backline then I don’t think you could ask for a better D5 or D6 selection. I’m a strong believer in the good safe bet value picks for defenders. Hurn ticks those boxes for me but I guess the real risk comes with the injury side of things. Unfortunately no stat book can predict when an injury or illness could strike. If there was I wouldn’t have picked, Mitchell, Rockliff, Mumford, Fasolo, and Zorko this year.

Trent Cotchin

Average 102.1
Breakeven 97
Current Price $513,100
Priced to Average 100

I consider anything around the $550,000 a value pick for a high end Midfielder and Trent finds himself well below this price this week. He has dropped $58,900 so far this year to find himself at his current price. Before I go any further I just want to remind you what Trent has produced in SC since his debut season in 2008. He had a breakout year in 2011 and backed it up again the following year to breakout into an elite midfielder. He did drop off last year only averaging 106, although he was carrying a knock for most of last season.

TAT1d

So why is he so cheap now?

Trent’s form has been very up and down so far this year, mixing 4 scores over 110, with 4 below 100, including a very disappointing 65 in round 5 where he got “MaCaffered”. With one of these low scores appearing in his rolling average every week so far this year, it doesn’t take long for your price to come tumbling down.

So the question now is can we trust he can get back to that consistent form he has shown over the last couple of years?

This is a tough question and could really depend of a number of factors. I can’t help but think he may be carrying some sort of injury outside the ankle knock he suffered over the weekend. Richmond look like they have gone back two or three years in development and if they can’t turn it around it may make it hard for Cotchin to turn it around. Of course the flip side to that also runs true; if Cotchin doesn’t lift then it may be hard for Richmond to lift.

On the injury side of things, he has come out and said he was carrying his ankle into the Demons game and he is confident in getting up again this week. This has me very worried. We know he played through injury last year and although I got him in after the byes last year expecting his form to lift, that never really materialised and he stuttered home averaging just 102 after the byes. Not an ideal average for a midfielder, as there was at least 25 other players averaging more and it put him well outside the top 10 midfielders from that point on, ultimately provig to be a poor trade. Are we seeing something similar again this year?

That been said, we all know what Cotchin is capable of. Only two years ago he was tipped to join the super elites of this game. I thought coming into this year that with a full preseason and last year’s injury behind him he would once again join the elite and average 115+ for the year. After 9 rounds he is a long way off that mark. His stats help paint the picture better.

TAT1e

He is almost 2 disposals a game down on his best year in 2012, 4% down in efficiency, 0.2 goals a game and up 1.9 clangers a game to 4.1. If we know how Supercoach works he is giving back on average 16.4pts a game on clangers and losing quite a bit on his subpar efficiency numbers too. Granted he is up in the clearance department this year but is clearly just booting it forward and perhaps has missed the outside class that Delidio brings to the team. Instead of kicking it forward in hope he would normally find Delidio on the outside with a handball. Now that Delidio is back in the side I do, at least expect it will help Cotchin alleviate his horror clanger and efficiency numbers so far this year.

The pair complements each other really well and I do think Cotchin and the Tigers will improve with Delidio back in the side.

The big risk with Cotchin is going to be his fitness. If you asked me last week whether to jump on or not, I would have been all for it, but now that I know he carried an injury into last week’s game and he says he’ll do it again this week, it’s hard for me to get too excited. I know having him last year, he will persevere through injury which may be great for the Tigers but it won’t be great for your Supercoach team.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 103-107pts

Final Word

As I put the final touches to this article the word going around is that he will miss this week. If that is the case and this injury is fully healed in two weeks, I’d monitor his form over the next two weeks he plays. If he looks the goods then my all means bring him in but form my experience from 2013 I would let Cotchin slide while that injury cloud hangs over his head.

Nic Naitanui

Average 69.1
Breakeven 96
Current Price $375,500
Priced to Average 73

So now we are getting ourselves into the real tight territory and into somewhat of the unknown. Nic Naitanui is having a very mediocre season, and that is putting it kindly. For all those who picked him from the start of the year, I commend you for holding onto him. For those who got rid of him, you’re probably thinking you have made the right choice at this stage of the season but we really won’t know the right answer to that until all the rounds have played out.

On the money side of things you can now get Nic for $143,000 less than what you would have paid at the start of the year and as much as I’d like to say he has reached the bottom he still has a high breakeven to average ratio again this week, so it is a reasonable assumption that he will be even cheaper again next week.

We have all heard the hype regarding Naitanui, and I’ve contributed to that over the last couple of years but in terms of Supercaoch relativeness he really only has showed us that in one year to date. Granted last season was injury affected, and well this year to date has had similar problems.

TAT1f

So why is he so cheap now?

Well I think we have to go all the way back to last year to get the bigger picture on this one. He battled groin soreness throughout 2013 which eventually resulted in West Coast taking the precaution of resting Naitaniu from round 17 onwards in the hope he would be right for the start of 2014 preseason. That cautious approach continued through the preseason with Nic doing modified programs for most of the preseason, as all the talk was about being patient, carefull management, building fitness and form, get his numbers up etc. All talk aside he didn’t complete a full preseason and he has clearly still got some issues with his groin. He has been subbed out of one game already this season and has only been given short bursts in the ruck so far this year. His stats tell the whole story and make it easy to see his large Supercoach drop off.

TAT1g

Every ruckmans bread and butter stats are his hitouts. In 2012 and 2013 he averaged 24.7 and 25.4 respectably, while this year he is down on just 14.8 a game. This is mainly due to playing as a second ruckman to Cox while we keep hearing how he builds fitness and form. If you assume he averages a 1-3 hitout to advantage ratio this equates to a loss of approximately 20 pts per game on his Supercoach score. Add to that a drop off in disposals, marks, contested marks, tackles and goals and it’s not hard to see why he is languishing at the 70pt margin.

The big question is will this form and fitness we keep hearing about come to fruition or will be see an unfit Naitanui continue to run around the park for the rest of the year? I’m a glass full type of man and I actually think we are about to see a turnaround in fortunes for Naitaniu. I think the week off will have done him the world of good and the bye has probably come at a really good time. All the talk now is that he is close to signing a new deal and this should also translate into a more confident Naitanui on the ground, and that’s something that can’t be under estimated. Right now that is a major contributor to Naitanui’s form. He is clearly lacking confidence. I can understand why his hitout and disposal numbers are well down as he hasn’t been getting as much time in the middle but the fact that he has only taken 9 marks all year just shows that perhaps he is hiding a little out there, and not presenting for his team mates.

What he needs is a spark that reignites his confidence and maybe something off field, like a signing a new contract can see him reignite his onfield former self. I can see him back flying at every ball that is in his vicinity, all he needs is a spark. Maybe a mark or a goal this week, does just that. The fact that we all know he has a massive ceiling makes it just all the more tempting if that spark does materialise.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 100-104pts

Final Word

I know I don’t have to say this but this is obviously a massive risk.

However in saying that, apart from Sandilands and Jacobs no other ruckman who has played every round has given us anything to suggest that they will finish with premium status. If you missed the boat on either of them, then maybe Naitaniu can bring it home for you. The smart move would to be monitor and wait for that spark. If I’m right and his fortunes turn around then he won’t have gone up too much in value and will still offer you a value selection. Perhaps he even becomes your R3 when you finish your team and loophole him every week or use him as cover when another bigman goes down.

Taylor Walker

Average 56
Breakeven 65
Current Price $299,500
Priced to Average 58

Now I’m sorry but this last selection is just going to be a teaser. It has just ticked over to 9pm and I’m running out of Tuesday to get this article out. I will tell you I like Tex even though he is another Key Forward. The big difference is unlike, Riewoldt, Franklin, Roughead, Petrie, Cloke, Pavlich, Kennedy and co, instead of dropping in value he is only going to go up. Next week he is still on the bubble and I will do a full breakdown. Until then this is how I’m leaning

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 97-101pts

 

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

 

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Comments (146)

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  1. Swans2014 says:

    Looking for a cash cow to cull. At the moment I am getting rid of Cunnigham and Robertson and are looking to get rid of one of these players… Lewis Taylor, Ambrose and Suckling

  2. crabb says:

    Great article mick, had nic in my watch list for weeks; waiting to pounce.

      • Jesse says:

        Great Article Mick! I had a closer look at hurns stats last week and since 2009 he averages 101 in wins
        and 74 in losses which is a 27 point differential
        Also with West Coast Draws I see them losing more then winning which means less points

  3. Kev says:

    Reckon Jelwood is worthy of a mention, Mick. Sneaks under your 550k threshold for value mids, 549k for a bloke averaging 120. Bargain!

  4. Josh says:

    Love the article Mick! What are your thoughts on bringing in Charlie Cameron this week?
    I know he's only played the one game but I really liked his attack and courage. Is it worth it or do you see him being a sub candidate and/or getting dropped later down the stretch?
    Cheers Mick.

    • Yeah it is always ideal to get a double look at these boys. If he isn't named sub this week then I think its probably a good trade and may help you with numbers for this final bye. Long term is hard to tell if he can keep his spot but with the Crows having a good win last week he should remain for a few weeks anyway. I will have a look again next week. Remember his 89 is only in his price change for one week.

    • BeagzBoyz says:

      Liked what I saw as well Josh, best to give him another week and see how he backs it up in my opinion. Could just be a flash in the pan as he tries to prove himself.

  5. David says:

    Hurn or Hanley
    Looking at one of these blokes next week.
    Thoughts much appreciated!

    • Azmataz says:

      Hanley in my opinion. I have been waiting for him to frop in price for ages and is proven

      • BeagzBoyz says:

        Hanley is a proven premium but he's also got a couple of niggling injuries that make me a bit worried. He hasn't tonned up since round 3 and I wouldn't be bringing him in until I see some solid form back.

        Hurn is a similar story although without the past performance. Hasn't averaged a season with more than 95 and has already missed 4 games this year after missing half of last year.

        Both risky picks but have the potential.

        Long story short: There's no right answer.

    • I'd say Hanley has more up but still don't see him averaging over 100 from here on out – more a 95average player. Hurns not that far behind but probably doesn't have the same ceiling. That just means Hanley is due a few stinkers to pull his average down.

  6. Michael says:

    Thanks Mad Mick, had my eyes on Texas Walker myself, could be a nice F6 at his price!

    Trades this week:
    Robertson out, Hartung in
    JKH out, Boomer in
    $7.4K left in bank.

    Team after trades:
    DEF: Swallow, Bartel, Langdon, Enright, Cameron, Shoenmakers, McVeigh, Hibberd
    MID: GAJ, Pendles, Beams, Murph, Polec, Hallahan, Acres, Hartung, JJK, Fyfe
    RUC: Sandy, Jacobs, Derickx, King
    FWD: Danger, Boomer, Zorko, Dusty, Taylor, Lloyd, Pav, Ambrose

    Need 2 more premos for full on field premo (1 x MID, 1 x FWD), holding on Zorko, Langdon, Polec for the moment as only have 11 trades left now, so need to ease right off and keep these for LTI and rookie upgrades. Next trades will be once rookies fatten up, probably Taylor, Ambrose next off the rank. Will prob keep Acres as M10.

    Some feedback on strategy from here would be great, thanks everyone!

    • BeagzBoyz says:

      Looking good Michael,
      Would suggest after the bye rounds saving a few trades and see where the dust settles with some players.
      You probably have about 3 or 4 on field players you still need to get to premium and seeing as there's not much in the bank you'll need every last trade.

      Keep a cool head and only make the trades you really need to and you'll be right!

    • Michael not too bad. I would suggest that Langdon and Polec will need an upgrade at some point but you are right to hold off for a good few weeks. Wait until the premos come to you now. Jump on the next fallen premo in the Mids Forwards and Defence – hopefully that will only cost you 6 trades and keep the rest for the last 6 rounds regardless of who gets short term form or injury dips.

    • Kev says:

      Just some food for thought, Michael. i reckon you're paying over the odds for Boomer right now. Price inflated after his big 170-odd last week v Lions. Has been very up and down since round 3

      • BundyBear says:

        I have had boomer since the start. sure he has had a couple of down games, but he is still a hell of a lot better then some of the other guys.

      • Michael says:

        Boomer's BE is 58, so will probably go up in price from here…

  7. throttlefinger says:

    Titillating TAT, Mick!

    Got NicNat a couple rounds ago to keep R1 warm for Mummy. Not the best job. But for the reasons you mentioned, won't be offloading. The week off should help. Sooner they get the contract squared away, believe it will make things easier as well…although could help his negotiating if he throws a couple 150 scores.

    • Did the same thing a few weeks back Throttle, after running a doughnut in the ruck for two rounds. Mummy should be back this week so you can use him as that loophole from here on out and snag the big scores when they come.

      • throttlefinger says:

        Dat's the plan, my man.

        • Kev says:

          Totally agree, Mick. Waiting for Nic Nat to show something, ANYTHING, before bringing him in. Either for Sandi if he goes down or as a handy R3 come finals. Derickx for Nic Nat sounds bloody good doesn't it?!

  8. dognino says:

    Out this week Cunningham, pyke
    In selwood, goldy

    Also thinking of a 3rd and go JKH down to Cameron, which leaves me enough cash to straight swap polec into Kennedy next week and give me a full prem mid field of
    Ablett, pendles, Kennedy, selwood, rockliff, beams, treloar, griffin ( halahan, acres )

    Still leaves me with 4 on field rookies, 2 fwd 2 back , but all playing and still earning cash so it will probly be another 4-5 weeks before I can go full prem.

  9. Captain joc says:

    Trade 1: JKH to Cameron done

    Trade 2: polec to selwood done

    Trade 3:option A cutler to bruest via bartel and Taylor

    Option B georgiou to wingard via bartel and Taylor

    Unless someone else has any other ideas got 270k to spend on a fwd or def premo

    • Ocker says:

      Captain, I would go with option B, Georgiou cooked. Cutler can still make some cash.
      I also prefer Wingard to Breust in the long term and feel there is more upside in him being a third year player and averaged 98.6 last year. I feel the bye would have helped him with his ankle just like it did Dangefield.
      Breust's best average in last 3 years is 85.8 in 2012 and 82.5 in 2013. (Going well at moment but drops off at end of year)

      Cheers.

      • Captain joc says:

        Cheers mate that’s what everyone else is telling me aswell you got twitter mate?
        So have you decided on your trade plans this week?

        • Ocker says:

          Captain no twitter mate I am too old for that stuff.
          J Selwood, Pendles and probably take the punt on Billy Hartung if gets a game.

          Cheers

          • Captain joc says:

            I’m thinking Simpson and jpk for my last 2 upgrades

            • Ocker says:

              Sounds good mate, I am still toying with the idea of Wingard and Selwood this week and can get Pendles next week because he is not going anywhere in price really.
              Put Goddard in as M8 last week along with Charlie Cameron.
              Stuck with Clurey in back-line not making money but is good for loophole with Langdon and Langford.
              Same in forward have Tim O'Brien but good with Lloyd and Cameron loophole.
              Keeping Lewis Taylor for swing option.
              Rookies not making money so have to be patient for a while after next week and keep trades for LTI etc.
              Plenty coming up in defense Hanley, Sam Mitchell when he returns so patience required but getting to the stage of not going for the dollars if scores don't improve by 100 a week over leaders after these trades and will just concentrate on league wins.

            • Ocker says:

              Rumor coming out of Freo is that Sandi was going to be rested R11 to give him 2 weeks rest, With the way Freo are going they may not be able too. I think that is what "Crouching One" was giving the hint at in the podcast.

          • Captain joc says:

            I bloody hope they don’t rest sandi as I have no back I’m like 527th haven’t looked at how many points I need to make up yet would love to go for the 50k but my main objective is to finish in the top 500-1000 as I’ve never been in the top 20000 before yeah I don’t think I will get jpk for awhile as I won’t have that many rookies fattened up crouch would have been almost plump if he wasn’t sub last week stupid bloody sando!!! And I’m thinking Simpson or hibberd for the last upgrade in defence

            • Ocker says:

              I went A Walker over Simpson looking at long term and cheaper now too, I also have Hibberd and think he is a solid choice.
              Acres let me down last week and he could be out for at least 3 or 4 according to grapevine which really hurts me for cash generation. I don't need to be wasting trades on dead rookies but need some sort of cover.
              I went with Sandi Jacobs Derickx and Currie from the start hoping I would not need to waste trades in ruck this year which has worked so far, Fingers Crossed.
              I have worked on 4 different options this week depending on team announcements hope I have one to cover whatever happens. (Await news on Acres scans)

          • Captain joc says:

            Yeah acres hurt me abit considering I was going to pick Lennon over him and that could of got me a win I lost by about 20
            I also went walker over Simpson when Mitchell got injured so
            I was going to go with derickx but when he wasn’t named rd1 changed my mind
            They should never have a split round in round 1!!!!

            Can’t believe I was also going to pick Mckenzie over swallow phew!

            • Ocker says:

              Round 1 being a split round is an absolute royal pain in the backside and destroys many teams at the start of the year if you don't plan well enough.
              Rookie selection is the hardest thing but we are all in the same position. Bye rounds earlier and Thursday and Monday games over the byes make for lousy SC Weekends.
              Hopefully the AFL will sort it out for next year but they will continue to try and stretch the season over a longer period. We just have to get used to it.

    • Captain I'm agreeing with Ocker on this one – Georgiou is done so unless you plan on using him as a loophole option later i would be punting him

      • Captain joc says:

        Oh actually I kinda was as I would have Langdon/Langford as 6/7 but I think I will still take the wingard trade wish I had the money to get robbos gray

  10. johnjohnson says:

    What about Matty Jaensch @ 397k?

  11. Gilly says:

    Planning 3 trades this week.
    Tyson to Jelwood
    JKH to Cameron
    Robertson to ???

    Have about 530k for the last trade. Can get Kade Simpson but my back line is fairly solid. Was thinking of Wingard, Breust or Martin. Can't believe I am saying this but I think Martin is the safest of those, would really like Wingard but keep waiting for him to get hot. Breust, probably being swayed by being a Hawks fan unsure he can keep up his current average, see him more as an 85-90 but I guess this for a forward is ok.

    As a smokie for mids was looking at Sam Gibson averaging 111 if you take out his first game.

    Any thoughts?

    • Azmataz says:

      I would go Wingard out of those 3. I have never rated Breust, and Dusty is very average this year playing for a sub-average tiges outfit. I am considering also getting Charlie Dixon into my fwd line following Jocks advice. Just as long as he doesn't get injured again…as he burnt me last year. Could be a good POD and cover for Sandiballs..

      • Gilly says:

        Thanks guys I appreciate the assistance. My other thought was to hold fire on the third trade and use it to get Goddard next week.

    • Tommykwr says:

      Wingard for me
      Martin is too shaky and I've never liked breust

  12. Paige says:

    If you're wondering who needs to show me the money, I know a sweet website you should check out… ;)
    Cheers,
    SCP

    • Captain joc says:

      We don’t care!!!

      • Cam_H says:

        There seems to be some antagonism from this community to Paige's site … aren't the SCPaige team just trying to offer a service to the SuperCoach community too? While I think that quite a bit of the advice is pretty apparent for anyone with SC Gold, for those that don't it has some value. Furthermore, there have been some columns I have thought were good. With that said, I don't think that the presenters should tell us their often less than impressive weekly scores if they're going to also describe themselves as a "team of dedicated and seasoned experts".

        Back on topic … very much looking forward to Mick's take on Tex Walker after the Crows-Blues game, as I'm still not sure whether to grab him or downgrade to one of the forward rookies on the bubble next week.

        • Garglesnarf FC says:

          Agreed, Tex is a stright swap from JKH. I only need one more forward to complete that line, and was going to go Gray, but Tex is relly tempting me.

          • Cam_H says:

            This is one of the most agonising decisions of the year … Tex looks like he's a 100 points player from what we've seen in that SANFL game and last week (despite the SC score where he kicked badly at goal), but history says he isn't a 100+ point player … unless you're in 2012, where his average did exceed 100 points … ahhhh!

    • Ocker says:

      While you are here Paige maybe you and your panel of experts could answer some questions and help the Community.
      Just a thought.

      Cheers.

  13. Tommykwr says:

    Who is a good upgrade option for Kennedy Harris
    Was thinking Cameron or Taylor walker
    Thoughts please

  14. Tom McVilly says:

    I need so help badly, everyone is saying to get in Rory slone but I really want to get in Tom Rockliff to fill my last premium in my mid! Who should I select

    • Sarah says:

      Go with your gut and get the player you want.

      • Captain joc says:

        I’d go with sloane as Adelaide look the goods ATM more chance of winning games and I find sloane is pretty consistent will give you 100% week in week out

        As with rockliff and playing for Brisbane there not gonna win many games if someone gets tagged it will be him but does score pretty well

        Would also lean towards sloane because rockliff has his bye but I expect them to score very similar for the rest of the season

  15. Vic says:

    Prestia to Selwood? I know this is sort of a sideways trade but the output Selwood will give can net me an extra 25-40 points a game.

  16. Branks says:

    What is the Community's opinion on keeping Tom Langdon for the rest of the season as a D6?

    • Sarah says:

      I'm considering it. At least until his price has finished going up. He'll most likely be my last onfield upgrade.

    • Kev says:

      in a purple patch at the moment and should be one of the last upgrades you make. First year rookies tend to tire towards the end of the year, keep an eye on him.

    • Damo says:

      Even with his recent stellar form and his ton on debut he's still averaging 'only' 85 which is probably what we can expect going forward. It's an awesome average for a first year player, particularly in defence, but probably not a keeper, although I agree with other comments that he should one of the last upgrades we need to do.

      Mind you, it only takes one stinker to shoot the BE right up and then out the door he goes.

      • Garglesnarf FC says:

        Also important to note is the impact Fasolo had on his scores. His 3 lowest scores are the only three full games Fasolo played.

        If Fasolo is named (which seems likely) then give it one week to confirm if the pattern remains and if it’s another sub 80 score, bye bye Langdon.

    • lostlarrikin says:

      Barring injury, I'll be holding him til finals

    • The_Darwin_Ducks says:

      he is averaging more than Hanley or Enright who everyone else would take as premium players so im holding him for now

  17. Mungos Men says:

    Thoughts on Bob Murphy? Soft Run in finals may be a value d6 going forward?

  18. sdl says:

    Is T Mitchell ever going to play? Getting sick of looking at a $430k donut every week!

    • Damo says:

      64 possies in the NEAFL last week. I would expect him to get a game after the bye. He'll be right, stick with him.

    • Kenny Powers says:

      went through the same with the Mummy .. had to get rid of in the end, too much dosh getting splinters and dropped a vital match by 10 points when collecting a rucking dog nut!

  19. Beady Eye says:

    If you had to choose 2 of Cameron, Lennon and Shenton, who would the community go for?

    • Damo says:

      Lennon is number 1 – class player and Tige's need to refresh the team. The other 2 require a second look.

      • Beady Eye says:

        Cheers, that's the way I was leaning. Surprised it's taken them this long to debut him TBH.

    • Kenny Powers says:

      Gut call Beady .. all appear to have reasonably good JS and reasonably good scoring potential all of which equals dosh in the kitty for upgrades. Shenton does offer the DPP option but is a bigger spend to get in. Tackles seem to be the big points earner this season and Cameron is a tackler which will help him score. Don't know enough about Lennon to comment but all reports point to him being a gun.

      • Beady Eye says:

        Thinking it'll be Lennon this week and Cameron the next. Getting a bit wary of Saints rookies given their propensity for copping the vest.

  20. Garglesnarf FC says:

    Just cannot get excited about Cotchin Mick. His injury issue is clearly curtailing his output and he is a near certainty to require a rest at some stage, which may well be longer than just a week.

    Like others, I will pick Selwood this week and SJ when that 59 is due to fall off in round 13.

    For those interested in value defenders, Round 12 is looking like the week to finish upgrades. It should should see the likes of Bartel (510), Hibberd and Malceski (490) and Hooker at around 450k, and all likely to figure in the top 8 defenders from here in.

  21. Selwood's Slayers says:

    I have a quick question,
    next week, which forward would you rather trade in?

    Dayne Zorko
    Tom Mitchell
    Nick Riewoldt

    Interesting to see whose output is greater from here onward.

    • Damo says:

      I don't think any amount of number crunching can help with this one – it's a gut call. My gut says Titch although I have Zorko in my team. Brisbane play Freo and Geelong in the last two rounds if leagues are your focus? Swans have dogs and tigers. I'd rather be on the swans.

    • Damo says:

      And I left Riewoldt out of my response there as I couldn't possible have him.

  22. RooBoy says:

    Hi all,
    I need some help in my FWD line from the community please.

    I have Danger, Zorko, Higgins, Fasolo, Lloyd, Billings, JKH and Ambrose

    It’s my worst line, with Langdon the worst playing DEF and Polec the worst playing MID the others are all but done.
    Big problem is I only have 13 trades left and $325K in the bank after grabbing Selwood so far this week (1 trade used).

    I’m wanting to trade out JKH this week but to who?
    I don’t want to use trades too quickly from here so am trying to limit the down/up strategy.

    Considered JKH to Gray/Harvey but those leave me with not enough cash for a direct upgrade of Billings to Buddy next week (or is that silly?). Alternatively JKH to Wingard would allow this but Gray has better consistent scoring potential in my opinion. Ps I do still have Laidler to downgrade in the backline but am trying to avoid this to save a trade.

    Any comments greatly appreciated.

    • Sarah says:

      Look for cheaper options in the forward line: ie Martin. Elliot and Dahlhaus should also drop slightly this week. But to do two upgrades in the forward line you may just have to bite the bullet and throw in a downgrade to get the guys you want.

    • Mathew says:

      I would probaby look at the wingard buddy trade
      Both players look like there coming back into form and also that would fill your forwards and leave lloyd and ambrose on your bench for back up
      Good luck

    • Kenny Powers says:

      Wingard said in an interview the other day that he is playing a different role this year so beware of his potential to score big numbers on a consistent basis. He takes plenty of marks, is a goal kicker and tackler though so should produce 80+ as a minimum.

      • RooBoy says:

        Thanks Sarah, Mathew and Kenny, think I'll probably go the Wingard option.

        • Captain joc says:

          I’d look at Martin first then wingard

          • RooBoy says:

            Thanks Captain,
            Funnily enough I changed my mind and had already come to that conclusion myself and traded it before checking back here and that's exactly what you suggested!
            Funny part is I had him earlier in the year before spitting the dummy with him! Oh well, got him back $20K cheaper (but wasted 2 trades, doh!)
            First season in SC, so ignored the golden rule of not letting go of premiums.

          • Captain joc says:

            All good rooboy you will get better at supercoach every week aslong as you stick to a couple of guidelines

  23. Damo says:

    Have given up on overall having dropped back to 800th or thereabouts, and am now focusing on my leagues. Am running a 3 x value rucks strategy of sandi/hampson/hickey which served me well until hickey went down. I am now looking at upgrading hampson or hickey to Nicnat (I hope that qualifies as an upgrade!) and want to retain the other one as bench coverage.

    Hickey is out for 6 more weeks but should be back for the league finals and I expect him to get a game ahead of Longer when fit. Hampson is currently playing but I’m concerned about his JS once big Ivan comes back in. It would seem obvious to trade out Hickey now as he’s injured and one in the hand is worth two in the bush right?

    But who will give me the better coverage come finals time? So I guess the question is, does Hampson retain his spot when Ivan comes back in? Can the tigers play both of them? if so, I would keep him and trade out Hickey as I get the coverage now, and also in the finals. I'm a tigers man but don't have a clue on this one.

    Thoughts community?

    • Kenny Powers says:

      do you only have enough funds to get Nic Nat or do you have extra in the warchest for a potential better upgrade?

      • Damo says:

        I can do NicNat without a downgrade. Anybody else that I'm interested in (Minson & Goldy mainly) would require a downgrade. Not keen on a downgrade this week as I want to have another look at all the candidates. I'm in good shape in my leagues so thinking about it again probably my best bet is to leave the rucks alone for a few weeks so I can see what happens with Hampson when Maric comes back, and also have a look at how Nicnat is going. I do expect him to improve in the 2nd half of the season – he said himself a couple of days ago that he's feeling better now after the bye than at any other time this year (didn't save the source of that article).

        • Scott says:

          Definitely no expert on the Tiges, but from what I have seen, surely they will try Hampson more forward (seems to take a good mark) and send Vickery to the 2s?

          • Kev says:

            Hampson can't mark for peanuts, Scott! Two marks in his past 4 games

            • Scott says:

              Wow… I stand corrected! Never looked at his stats and not seen much of the Tigers this year… just whenever I could stand to watch Carlton in previous years he would take a nice mark, TV cuts away to Megan Gale, Hampson kicks a behind… probably didn't happen as often as it seemed to!

              • Scott says:

                I guess even if Hampson does hold his spot his scores are going to suffer when Maric comes back… can see why you posted about this dilemma Damo! I think I will leave it for someone who knows what they are talking about now!

  24. Mathew says:

    Hi community
    Im looking at bringing in a premo forward money is no option who do people think is the man to bring in?
    I have been tossing up between Parker and Gray leaning more towards parker because im not sure if gray can keep up the form he has been producing.
    All opinions welcome doesnt have to be between them two what do people think?

    • SCaddict says:

      Both are great options but if you want to split hairs I would get on Parker. Sydney have rediscovered their mojo and he's going to continue to rack up touches, goals and tackles.

      Swans also have a great draw during the Supercoach finals period.

      Gray is healthy right now but will he be able to see out the season? Only played a full season once in his career.

      • Garglesnarf FC says:

        SC, what do you think of would be the impact of TMitch returning to the lineup (if/when he does) on Parkers output? I cannot help but think Mitch will end up stealing some of Parkers ball and clip 15-20pts off his scoring potential.

        Parker is not an option for me this week due to the bye, and the fact that I only have 17 players until I bring in Gray or even Tex (that sub $300k is soooooooooooo tempting)for JKH.

        • SCaddict says:

          Well Titch still has to force his way back in first. Let's see if those 269 SC pts in a fairly weak NEAFL comp is enough to get him a spot against the Cats next week with McGlynn and Pyke also due back. I wouldn't blame Horse for not messing too much with a team that has won it's past 5 games by an average of 39pts.

          Ultimately don't think it will have a dramatic impact either way. After all Parker had a season high 131pts in Rd3 which was a game that Titch also played.

          By the way I'm only splitting hairs as Gray is in a rich vein of form right now that would be putting a smile on the dial of all coaches that currently own him.

          Just giving my slight preference to answer the original question that's all. Others will have a different opinion no doubt.

      • lostlarrikin says:

        Agreed, Parker for mine (coming from a Power supporter, no less)

  25. max says:

    what do we think team?

    Pyke out Nic Nat in
    Cotchin out Jelwood in
    Dunstan out…. Taylor walker in (via DPP with Lewis taylor)

  26. Kenny Powers says:

    They all seem to be a bit sideways .. but sometimes form or injury will dictate that you have to do the dreaded sideways trades .. Charlie Cameron from the Crows looks as if he will make more money for you and has the potential to pump out similar, if not better, scores than the big Texan. Going on the media and coach's talk, he will be getting games for the foreseeable future. Doing this trade would let you go for a better scoring ruckman keeper. Or maybe hold Dunstan for a week and get his teammate Shenton in .. looked solid in both outings, makes you some cash and gives you a DPP forward swinger. Ward or Libber are other options for the Cotchin trade.

  27. Kenny Powers says:

    Aish out .. Libber, Selwood or Ward in? Thanks community

  28. Captain joc says:

    Wingard

    Roughead

    Pavlich

    Who do people think will average the most from now till rest of the season

    • Beady Eye says:

      Flip a coin between Rough and Pav. Wingard some way behind if he stays in that small forward role.

    • Ocker says:

      Captain, Here is the short version of Encyclopedia Britannica.
      Pavlich finishes season strong barring injury.

      Roughead plays with consistently inconsistent scores all year. Looks like a frustrated player at moment and was expecting him to get time soon and did.

      Wingard Unknown due to role change and does not seem to be getting mid time as much. Possible Gray taking scores off him.

      Cheers.

    • Trade Burner says:

      Out of those, I would go with Wingard. He might be put in midfield more = more points… other 2 will be up and down a lot more with the size of their bags (of goals)… and you would want to have a sizable bag to choose either. Think all 3 will average around 90, but with more time in mids, Wingard could avg over 100.

      • Garglesnarf FC says:

        Port have a good run for next month to 6 weeks, and Freo dont play anyone in the top 4 until about round 20. I already have both of Pav and Wingard, but am probably more bullish on Wingard just because of his potential for some more midfield time.

        So my rank in order – Wingard (just) then Pav followed by Roughy a fair way back in third.

  29. Trade Burner says:

    Hi all. Thanks to the team for interesting and entertaining articles and podcasts and the community for their friendly and helpful discussion!
    Stained my own trousers last week when playing around with SC Gold trial and traded in Acres and Salem after first game was finished so couldn't reverse… was probably going to trade for Acres anyway but was just having a look at my team if I decided to go with double downgrade.
    Want to turn one of these in to Selwood now – thinking I can survive a month without Acres (with bye hopefully only misses 3 games), but not sure whether Salem might improve his scoring (like JKH did)… whichever I keep will probably end up M9 or M10 for the rest of the year – any thoughts? Thanks.

    • Trade Burner says:

      I guess what I am trying to ask is: Who to keep, Salem or Acres?

    • Kev says:

      Word is that Acres will be missing more than a month, TB. More 6 weeks out than 4. Will take A LOT of coin to go from Acres to Selwood though. I'm jealous if you've got that amount sitting in your kitty

  30. Guest says:

    Should cotchin and nick riewoldt be traded out this week?

    • Cam_H says:

      Not for me to say who you should get in, get out, or keep … but;

      Not really sure why anyone would get Cochin in the first instance, but there are several super-premos that are undervalued … Steve Johnson should be cheap across the next few weeks. Goddard and Selwood would seem to offer good value if you've not got them. Dane Swan's another proven champ' who still seems to be worthy of a look.

      If you've already got 'St. Nick', personally I'd ride the bumps and bruises and hang tough with him.

      Best of luck with whichever way you go! :O)

      • Ocker says:

        Well said Cam.

        • Cam_H says:

          Thanks Ocker.

          Maybe I've been a bit 'down' on Trent Cochin … looked again at his stat's, and they're not too bad. His price nose-dived last year after a strong 2012, and he started with a really high starting price this year which has been 'going south' again, so I guess I've viewed him pretty unfavourably as a player who's lost dollar value for one-and-one-half seasons. With that said, his average this year to date is over 100, and he's in the same company as Dahlhaus and Priddis who are players who I'd be keeping if I had either.

  31. Tom says:

    Lukey Breust or Roughead after his suspension?

  32. Luke says:

    Need help with ruck options – looking to replace Trent West.
    What are peoples player of choice and why?

  33. WombatsFC says:

    WTF Jock!
    I just went to use that excellent Stats interface that was previously atop the page and the bastards been stolen.
    That was gold for comparing form at various stages of a season and you took it away. Why? Just cos most of us are kicking your freckle you're packing up the tools and going home? Typical St Kilda sook.

    • Ocker says:

      Hey Wombat never used it myself (Never even bothered to look) I have my own stats for that. I think Jock is needing a dose of Ocker the motivational coach that Richmond needs at the moment I have offered my services for free and they still don't want to know. Richmond dead in the trenches. To think that I was at their last GF win not happy.

      • Ocker says:

        Wombat, Ask Throttle for a copy of what I sent him that should keep you more than satisfied.

        Cheers bloke.

      • WombatsFC says:

        Thanks Ocker. I'm way to casual to be recording every players stats for every round, I struggle tracking 1 player for 2 weeks.
        I want the historical ave's over rounds 11-16 and 16-22 compared to their 1-11. i.e did they come good, drop off or continue good form.
        The stats interface enabled you to search a player or position easily (like SC) and delivered that historical information concisely.
        I'm primarily interested in historical stats for Wingard, Parker, Roughead, Johnston, Swan, Bartell, BoomBust Harvey, Sauce, Goldstien, Warnock, Fyfe, Simpson(the Ned Kelly one) but with the stats interface I had the potential to find somebody I hadn't considered like a Tigers or Saints player.

  34. Benno_S says:

    I'm going Libba over selwood this week due to the previous having a be of 25 v 90 odd. Should be able to pick up selwood next week for less than 560k (unless he busts out a 130 ) even still will prob be cheaper than Libba next week.

  35. Dingo says:

    HEEELLLLLLPPPPP!!!!!!!!!

    Should I get rid of Polec or Ellis for J Selwood

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