We’re a week out from the dreaded bye rounds and this week is arguably the most awkward of the year. There are some players who we just need to dump badly, but if we do, we run risk of adding a nice, fat donut to the collection.
That is why this week I’m all for a “no trade policy”. Unless you really have to, hold your trades for next week and then strategically trade, eliminating as many zeros as possible. But I also understand many do need to trade and I wouldn’t be serving my community if I didn’t throw up some options this week.
So, let’s begin.
GET HIM IN
Callan Ward (GWS) MID – $484,000 SC
- Next 5 Games: PORT (H), WCE (A), BYE, RICH (H), HAW (A)
- Recent Scores: 115, 129, 48, 92, 108
- Breakeven: 92
Second time this season Callan gets a run in Flesh, but with good reason. While his value and output has dropped slightly, coming into the bye rounds its perfect time to consider getting him in. The 48 scored against the Western Bulldogs stayed in his rolling lockout and as a result, is now juicy value.
Ward managed a solid 92 despite being knocked into tomorrow in 2nd quarter against Adelaide and backed that up with 31 touches, 5 tackles and 108 points against the Gold Coast. He is in good form and definitely worth considering if you’re desperate to trade in a midfielder.
Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) FWD – $460,800 SC
- Next 5 Games: ESS (A), MELB (A), BYE, GCS (A), FRE (H)
- Recent Scores: 93, 104, 54, 126, 128
- Breakeven: 24
Another one in ripping touch of late, Dahl has returned to the side in great knick. He tore Kane Lucas to shreds, kicking 2 goals and amassing 28 touches for 126 touches a couple of weeks ago. Last week, he backed it up with 2 goals from 22 touches for 128 points. He’s getting plenty of the footy, but also kicking goals – which will satisfy the lads at Champion Data.
His breakeven, while also avoiding the round 8 bye, makes him a good upgrade option for those still with ol’ mate Budwa Franklin. As mentioned above, trading shouldn’t be high on your priority list this week, but if you really need to, consider Luke Dahlhaus as an upgrade option – in good touch with Melbourne in the first week of the bye rounds.
Michael Johnson (FRE) DEF – $477,100 SC
- Next 5 Games: WCE (A), PORT (A), GEE (H), BYE, WBD (A)
- Recent Scores: 92, 76, 109, 91, 113
- Breakeven: 83
Early days yet, but numbers-wise, Michael Johnson is in career-best form. Averaging 97.5 for the season, his last 3 weeks in particular have been spectacular. He is getting plenty of the footy playing off his man, while also clunking marks. Against North Melbourne, he had 27 touches, 11 marks for 113 points. Against Essendon, he had 27 touches, 9 marks for 109 points.
Johnson’s ability to play off his opponent and get midfield numbers as a defender makes him bloody appeal if you’re in need of a defender. Difficult run coming up, but Fremantle’s draw post-bye really opens up. Worth a thought.
GET HIM OUT
Luke Dunstan (STF) MID – $311,400 SC
- Next 5 Games: HAW (A), CARL (H), GCS (H), BYE, COLL (H)
- Recent Scores: 64, 143, 55, 52, 66
- Breakeven: 70
Personally, I would hold onto Luke for two more weeks given your midfield would be decimated by the horrid round 8 bye. That said, his last 3 weeks have been ordinary. Dunstan is still getting 18-20 touches per game, but if you watch St Kilda games closely, he’s just not having the same impact he was earlier on in the season.
He looks burnt out and his breakeven his hitting dangerously high levels, with those low scores to remain in his rolling average for next couple of weeks. Whether you dump now or wait ‘till round 8 guys are done with byes is up to you, but I almost reckon it’s time to say thanks and good luck to Luke.
Matthew Sucking (HAW) DEF – $404,900 SC
- Next 5 Games: STK (H), SYD (A), BYE, PORT (A), GWS (H)
- Recent Scores: 74, 102, 122, 63, 58
- Breakeven: 123
Like Luke, Suckling is starting to hit that 20 touch game that doesn’t impact the SuperCoach scoreboard. 19 touches against Geelong and 22 against Richmond after 2 great weeks have put owners of Suckers in an awkward position. Breakeven of 123 this week, but playing St Kilda. Reckon it might be time to say goodbye to Suckers, dump while he is $400k+.
Lance Franklin (SYD) FWD – $401,800 SC
- Next 5 Games: BRIS (A), HAW (A), ESS (H), BYE, GEE (H)
- Recent Scores: 79, 130, 29, 104, 31
- Breakeven: 83
Oh Buddy, Buddy, Buddy. What are we going to do with you old mate? 100+ one week, 30 the next. You are what makes this game both beautiful and frustrating. Every time we say it’s the week to dump, you come out with a big score. We keep faith, and you burn us. I’m not having a bar of it this time though Budwa. You’re smashing cars and breaking SuperCoach hearts. While we can still send him to someone in the $400k (Dahlhaus) he has to go. We can’t go on waiting for him to string 2 together, not with a dodgy knee.
Here the key break-even scores to keep in mind heading into round 4:
- Dane Swan (COLL) 67 BE
- Tom Langdon (COLL) 22 BE
- Jimmy Webster (STK) 0 BE
- James Aish (BRIS) -9 BE
- Aaron Sandilands (FRE) 66 BE
- Marc Murphy (CARL) 18 BE
- Dale Thomas (CARL) 57 BE
- Nic Naitanui (WCE) 56 BE
- Daniel Hannebery (SYD) 37 BE
- Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL) 46 BE
- Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 147 BE
- Dyson Heppell (ESS) 129 BE
- Jobe Watson (ESS) 131 BE
- Jack Steven (STK) 153 BE
- Tom Rockliff (BRIS) 149 BE
- Nick Riewoldt (STK) 156 BE
- Todd Goldstein (NM) 136 BE
- Adam Treloar (GWS) 136 BE
- Tom Liberatore (WBD) 143 BE
- Dustin Martin (RICH) 140 BE
- Matt Suckling (HAW) 123 BE
- Joel Selwood (GEE) 196 BE
It’s back. Thank you for your questions this week. Remember, you can tweet in to @Mr_Crimmins and your question could feature in Flesh for Fantasy. Here are the burning questions of the round.
ANSWER: Good question. Don’t think Hickey is a keeper personally. There has been simply too big a gap between his best and worst. St Kilda also has a tough run coming up, so there’s always the chance that could impact his scores. The two poor scores were due to him carrying an injury. Ignore those and he’s been really solid. A low breakeven means you can keep him for a little while and see if guys like Lobbe and even Goldstein come good. Monitor Hickey, keep for now, but think about the future. I wouldn’t head into the business end with him
ANSWER: How many trades you have left really depends on the situation. The general consensus with trades seems to be 23-24 heading into the bye rounds. Anything less than 20+ may leave you light on towards the end of the season. If you use 2-3 trades a week during the bye rounds, you should be left with 16-18 trades with 12 weeks to play. With your team almost set, you should then aim for 4-6 for the finals. But really, how long is a piece of string? It depends on circumstance; some people have been forced to trade more than others. There’s no definitive answer, but track for 6 come finals.
ANSWER:I agree, reckon Robbie Grey is probably the best option there. He is in sensational form, a real POD with a low ownership %. All 3 options are around the same price, so it’s just a matter of picking on form. Grey is the man, but seriously consider Pav. He is also looking good and no chance of being rested – Freo need wins now.
ANSWER: Understand your frustration, getting big at the waist waiting for Mummy to return myself. As I mentioned before, Hickey is a viable option given he’s been in good touch this season, but at same time, use Hickey as a stepping-stone. When Hickey maxes out, dump for a better ruck. While he has a low BE and scoring well (looks over his injury), I would consider getting him in. Lobbe and McEvoy need to show us more before we can consider.
ANSWER: Not so much trading for players going through a tough spell, it’s more going for guys coming out of a tough spell. Callan Ward (mentioned above) is one guy worth looking at. Others to keep an eye on include Hamish Hartlett and David Mundy. But personally, given those guys have achievable break-even, I would hold onto them until their byes, you’ll be scratching for every point you can get come next week. Assess their situation once you arrive at their respective byes.
Good luck this weekend community. Send any last minute questions you may have to @Mr_Crimmins.