Flesh for Fantasy – Round 6

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach 2014, Supercoach Mr Crimmins style by on April 24, 2014 • views: 18650

flesh-for-fantasy-150x150G’day community,

Before I begin, would like to apologize for the absence of ‘Flesh for Fantasy’ last week. Crimmins’ schedule over the Easter meant there was simply no time to give you the work the beautiful community deserve. But, like JC himself, I have risen and ready to give you the very best SuperCoach information.

Talking about last week, we saw the resurrection of Patrick Dangerfield. A very nice 192 was reward for those who stuck fat, and a timely reminder for those who traded him out to back in your premiums.

Without further adieu, lets get stuck back into some Flesh.

GET HIM IN

Alex Fasolo (COLL) FWD – $292,800 SC

  • Next 5 Games: ESS (H), CARL (A), BYE, ADEL (A), WCE (H)
  • Recent Scores: 72, 106, 132
  •  Breakeven: -85

While he is coming off his first price-rise of the season, the value of Alex Fasolo is such that it’s not too late to get him in. He has had a spectacular start to the season, pumping out two 100s in his has two starts and providing that much needed downgrade option up forward. His performance against North Melbourne was sensational – 32 touches (9 contested) and 7 marks for a lazy 132 points.

He has taken to his new role off half-back beautifully and looks to help fill the rebounding defender void left by Heath Shaw last season. While he does have the round 8 bye, I wouldn’t stress on that too much. His value is simply too good to ignore and given guys like Merrett and Higgins are stalling, it is the perfect time to get Fasolo in before his price rockets again.

James Gwilt (STK) DEF – $413,900 SC

  • Next 5 Games: BRIS (H), HAW (A), CARL (H), GCS (H), BYE
  • Recent Scores: 105, 96, 92, 69, 100
  • Breakeven: 35

In terms of consistency, there are very few right now pumping out good scores week after week like James Gwilt. I mean, just look at that ‘Recent Scores’ column. Bar that 69 against Adelaide, he has been super impressive SuperCoach-wise to start the season, and for this, deserves recognition.

If you look at the performance against Essendon, he amassed 24 touches (21 kicks) and took 11 markets while playing off Joe Daniher. His role is beneficial to the SuperCoach scoring system. Not only does he get a bit of the footy, but he plays on the resting rucks so it will allow him to rebound and also get points for shutdown roles. His draw coming up is still quite favourable, given he’s got Brisbane this week, Hawthorn, Carlton and then Gold Coast before the bye. He is priced a lot cheaper than what his output suggests and could be a handy POD selection.

Brad Ebert (PORT) MID – $534,600 SC

  • Next 5 Games: GEE (H), GWS (A), FRE (H), BYE, STK (H)
  • Recent Scores: 104, 121, 87, 129, 110
  • Breakeven: 100

Quietly going about this business, Brad Ebert has had a magnificent start to the season. The rise of Polec, along with Boak’s form, has somewhat shadowed Ebert’s performances to date, but his numbers stack up as well as any in that Port Adelaide midfield. Along we getting a tonne of the pill, Ebert takes a lot of marks and kicks midfield goals, all handy for the SuperCoach game.

Owned by less than 1% of coaches, Ebert could be a nice POD for those looking to upgrade the likes of Dunstan or Ellis. Definitely worth considering.

GET HIM OUT

Xavier Ellis (WCE) MID – $278,100 SC

  • Next 5 Games: Injured with low calf strain
  • Recent Scores: 66, 98, 93, 66, 2
  • Breakeven: 63

The Xavier Ellis experiment has been a disappointment. A solid pre-season and great value, many (including myself) believed he was primed from a big year. 5 rounds in and we’re already saying goodbye. His scores have been modest, nice little run in rounds 2 and 3, before hitting the wall big time. However, expected to miss games with a calf and an uncertain break-even, it’s time to dump for Nick Robertson, who will go up in price this week.

Dom Tyson (MELB) MID – $325,100 SC

  • Next 5 Games: SYD (H), ADEL (A), RICH (A), BYE, PORT (H)
  • Recent Scores: 111, 105, 94, 50, 49
  • Breakeven: 40

Drop in value this week, along with a lean run of form, has put Dom Tyson on the chopping block. When a player loses money, which is generally the first warning sign. If you don’t have Ellis, but have Dom Tyson, I would strongly consider dumping for the likes of Nick Robertson or someone who’s bubble is ready to burst. You could hold him ‘till the bye rounds, but given his is starting to leak money, considerations to upgrade/downgrade should be made.

David Zaharakis (ESS) MID – $382,300 SC

  • Next 5 Games: COLL (A), WBD (H), BRIS (A), SYD (H), BYE
  • Recent Scores: 85, 81, 50, 71, 69
  • Breakeven: 108

Grossly out of form, those who are still putting up with the torture of David Zaharakis must relieve themselves of the pain and get rid of him. He is absolutely stinking it at the moment, which is a surprise given how good his pre-season was. You may ask me “who has Zaharakis?” and I will tell you that nearly 7,000 coaches own him, so this is directed at them.

If you’ve got him, GET HIM OUT. He will continue to leak serious cash and could put you in a spot where you are unable to upgrade or downgrade him. While you still can and he presents some sort of value, dump.

BREAKING POINT

Here the key break-even scores to keep in mind heading into round 4

GOING UP

  • Jack Redden (BRIS) 56 BE
  • Tom Rockliff (BRIS) 62 BE
  • Trent Cotchin (RICH) 40 BE
  • Jamie Elliot (COLL) -34 BE
  • Steele Sidebottom (COLL) 6 BE
  • Tom Langdon (COLL) 3 BE
  • Daniel Currie (NM) -18 BE
  • Luke McDonald (NM) 18 BE
  • Josh P Kennedy (SYD) 57 BE
  • Lance Franklin (SYD) 19 BE
  • Luke Parker (SYD) 45 BE
  • David Mundy (FRE) 70 BE
  • Aaron Sandilands (FRE) 29 BE
  • Michael Hibberd (ESS) 67 BE
  • Jimmy Webster (STK) -25 BE
  • Luke Dunstan (STK) -35 BE
  • Jared Polec (PORT) -10 BE
  • Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL) 7 BE
  • Matt Crouch (ADEL) -83 BE
  • Jay Kennedy-Harris (MELB) -3 BE
  • Gary Ablett Jr (GCS) 55 BE
  • Jackson Macrae (WBD) 15 BE
  • Marc Murphy (CARL) 43 BE
  • Dale Thomas (CARL) 35 BE
  • Will Langford (HAW) 6 BE

GOING DOWN

  • Dayne Zorko (BRIS) 120 BE
  • Dustin Martin (RICH) 125 BE
  • Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 144 BE
  • Patrick Ryder (ESS) 133 BE
  • Jobe Watson (ESS) 150 BE
  • Nick Riewoldt (STK) 124 BE
  • Ryan Griffin (WBD) 144 BE
  • Steve Johnson (GEE) 122 BE
  • Joel Selwood (GEE) 149 BE
  • JarrydRoughead (HAW) 119 BE

PUB TALK

It’s back. Thank you for your questions this week. Remember, you can tweet in to @Mr_Crimmins and your question could feature in Flesh for Fantasy. Here are the burning questions of the round.

Image 1

 

 

ANSWER: Back him in for mine. While he may be leaking cash, his output has been solid (117, 49, 116, 99, 41). He will continue to drop in value now the 41 is in his rolling lockout, but I just think given what he has shown so far, you may as well stick by him till the bye and see how he goes.

Good luck this weekend community

Mr Crimmins.

 

Catch Up On All The Latest After Easter Here:

The Easter Weekend Chinwag

PODCAST: Time To Make Some Cash

Tight Arse Tuesday – Round 6

Supercoach Scouting Report for Round 6

 

Comments (109)

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  1. sticks7 says:

    Great Article Mr Crimmins, top notch as usual
    Ryan Griffen? is it too early to be bringing him in for dom tyson?
    Thanks Crimmo

    • Ryan says:

      One more week I reckon, big break even should fall even further in price. Mundy could be a good pick this week, everyone's talking about Griffen so could be a could POD and under 500k.

  2. Brad says:

    Where are you getting your BE from? They seem VERY different to other sites. Eg griffen

  3. bbb says:

    not convinced on Fasolo and i have the money for any premo thinking pav but still unsure
    should i go with fasolo and if not who
    Cheers

  4. Kristofor says:

    Love these articles. Quality. Ellis and Tyson out for M Crouch and Lloyd this week

  5. Mr Young says:

    Zaharakis is an Anzac Day gun though!

  6. Mebois says:

    i am trading tyson out this week, cant decide on robertson gray billings bontempelli hallahan.

  7. Tony says:

    wingard out for cloke in bad move?

  8. Benno says:

    Better revise the break-evens crimmo, they're way off!

  9. sam says:

    who to trade out for lloyd???? jkh, mcdonough or taylor?

  10. Mitchell says:

    Your b/e’s are stuffed.

    Griffen – 140??

    Franklin – 19??

    Langdon – 3??

    Dunstan – -35??

  11. Dom says:

    Fasolo has a round 8 bye though…

  12. joe says:

    made the bad decision of trading in matt thomas last week instead of fasolo.. rookie..

    anyway i was looking for your thoughts on jobe watson and do you really think dane swan will be able to pump out some good scores, i feel as if he is spending to much time up forward

    • WombatsFC says:

      Pretty safe bet to take Swanny over Jobe for the rest of the year. IMO

    • SCaddict says:

      I probably need another week or two to be convinced that Swanny will return to being an elite for the rest of the year. Also his Rd8 bye is not exactly convenient for my structure.

      Of course this is probably the best week to get him pricewise if you are a believer but I'm going to wait another week before committing to 2 of either Griff, Jobe or Swanny.

  13. Michael says:

    Thanks guys, have rethought on Cutler and will prob go with:

    OUT Ellis
    Swing Taylor to MID
    IN Lloyd

    My issue now is that I want to bring in Robertson, but really Dunstan is the only logical swap but I want to hang onto him until R10 bye. Any suggestions? My MIDS are GAJ / Beams / JPK / Murph / Polec / Fyfe / MCrouch / LTaylor / Dunstan / JKelly (GWS)

    Just noticed Kelly not named this week so would Kelly – Robertson be the best way to go? Has BE of 36 so would prefer to hold on to him for a bit longer but how long will he be out? He's made $90K already.

    Thanks in advance!!

    • WombatsFC says:

      Downgrading Gaz to Robertson will make heaps of cash, give you an abstract POD(noGaz) and, relieve round 8 bye pressure. Might cost you 120pts p/week though.

      • Wattsieesq says:

        I've done exactly that while upgrading Fasolo to Petrie. Would have liked to upgrade Impey to Petrie but I can't have too many R8 bye players in my team.

        • WombatsFC says:

          Nice move Wattsie! I was also looking at the Fasolo to Petrie trade but I reckon there's probably better value in Jeff Garlett.

          • dustin says:

            Wombats no need to make fun of him and joke around mate, its funny for us but feel sorry for the poor bloke because he might actually take your advice lol we should be role models and set a standard to the beginners.

            • WombatsFC says:

              A man cannot learn to swim by walking around the edges of the pool, at some stage he has to get wet.

    • SCaddict says:

      I'm keeping Kelly (just a minor hammy strain according to Camo) but culling Xman for Flipper Robertson. Probably doesn't answer answer your query though.

  14. Kristofor says:

    Just had a look at the teams. Happy with Ellis out for Lloyd, swinging Taylor onto the bench as FWD/MID.
    Other trade I had planned was Tyson out for M Crouch or MAYBE Robinson… Thing is, Crouch is listed on an extended bench only…
    Maybe I should even save a trade and Hold Tyson until his round 10 bye…
    Other issue is I have M Thomas from Richmond, out with a 'knee'?? No indication on how long he will be out.. I could upgrade him to a Swan, or as suggested above, Ebert.
    I would appreciate any advice or thoughts on my situation. Thanks :)

    • Benno says:

      Tyson and Thomas should be traded, take your pick! I'd lean towards moving Tyson on. He's run his race and made you some dollars, take the opportunity and upgrade him before he bleeds anymore cash!

      I would pick out of Swan / Griffen / Montagna however Ebert could be a great POD and is a proven scorer!

  15. canman1306 says:

    Have I missed the Fasolo Boat or should I go for Lloyd a a Cheaper price
    Thoughts?

    • Benno says:

      The boat has sailed! I'd jump on Lloyd and watch him catch up!

    • Kris says:

      if your looking for cash I would hit up Lloyd. Fasolo is already at 300k nearly – only pick him up if you believe he'll keep scoring and intend to play him on the field.

    • WombatsFC says:

      Nah the Fasolo boat is still within an easy jump from the end of the pier but, the price of a berth is predicted to increase by 60k this week. Get on now before all of the value seats are taken. Get Lloydy as well, if you can handle that many round 8 byes up front.

    • canman1306 says:

      I think Fasolo may be the Walker of Last year

  16. Kristofor says:

    … says break evens heading into Round 4..?

  17. Spiro says:

    hey everyone im a bit stuck on whether I should make a trade this week or not I have 183k in the bank thoughts?

    Defenders: david swallow, sam Mitchell, matt suckling, cam Guthrie, pearce hanley, luke McDonald (alexis Georgiou) (Tom Clurey)
    Mids: gary ablett, joel selwood, dayne beams, mitch Duncan, jared polec, luke dunstan, dale Thomas, Josh Kelly (matt crouch) (James aish)
    Rucks: mike pyke, aaron Sandilands (tom derickx) (fraser thurlow)
    Forwards: pat Dangerfield, Dane zorko, dustin martin, luke parker, shaun Higgins, alex fasolo, (lewis taylor) (Jay kennedy harris)

    • Cam_H says:

      As per another thread with the same question, for my mind I'd unload Dale Thomas and if looking for a second trade then consider James Aish. If just Dale Thomas, then possible downgrade to Nick Robertson and keep the coin. If two trades then add in Nick Robertson with maybe Ryan Griffen – although could consider Dane Swan or Brad Ebert instead at similar price.

      • Spiro says:

        what about downgrading dale Thomas to jack billings or is nick Robertson the better option

        • WombatsFC says:

          Might be a good idea to dump clurey for cutler and get some money from you D8.

          • Cam_H says:

            Spiro – bear in mind that Robertson is $90K cheaper and has a better points average, but he does lack dual position eligibility which could be a consideration.

            Wombats – 'yep' looked at that before the teams were announced but was a bit concerned with Cutler's job security. The other player that I had in mind in a similar role was Essendon's Jason Ashby.

        • Bob McBob says:

          Robertson is cheaper and probably has better JS

  18. jason says:

    Thinking the breakevans are wrong week

  19. IAMGOKU says:

    Hey guys I need some help – I am down grading Ellis to either Robertson or Crouch … Obviously I will get some more coin for Robertson … BUT will Crouch produce better scores??!

    Cheers for the help

    • Benno says:

      Be safe and go with robertson. No guarantee Crouch will play this weekend and providing Robbo pumps out a decent score that first round 49 will disappear from his BE calculation!

      • IAMGOKU says:

        Cheers for the advice mate

        Think its worth downgrading Lewis Taylor to Lloyd?

        • Benno says:

          Nah waste of a trade, Taylor's BE is only 13, plenty of growth left there! If you want Lloyd in surely theres a better way to go about it, Dunstan out sub Taylor to Mid and Lloyd in?

  20. Jono says:

    I love the article

    Should I go

    Option 1

    Ellis to robertson

    T.Mitchell to Lloyd

    Giving me 600k in the bench or do I upgrade Ellis now for griffen?

    • Jono says:

      Or keep tom Mitchell?

    • wayno1313 says:

      I'd wait a week and get Griffen next week if you can. With Griffen's BE of 100 his price isn't going to be going up as much as you will make from the rookies you mentioned.

    • SCaddict says:

      Yeah Jono I'd pull the trigger on the Titch to Lloyd trade.

      A lot of uncertainty surrounds if and when Titch can force his way back into the seniors and Lloyd is really a cash cow that everyone should have. Solves two problems with one trade.

  21. Benno says:

    Who has better job security, T. Cutler or S. Lloyd?

  22. Nick says:

    Hey guys

    What are your thoughts on m crouch been

    named as an emergency but not in the first 4

    subs??

  23. Danners16 says:

    I had a look at Brad Ebert earlier on and thought he was a good pick. Now it has made me think who do I bring in?
    Brad Ebert or Ryan Griffen?

  24. Kris says:

    Anyone heard any news on Josh Kelly's supposed Hamstring injury?

  25. WombatsFC says:

    Thanks Crimmo,
    In the Going Up list you forgot Robbie Gray with b.e of 34 and in the Going Down list you forgot Boomer b.e 100+ more than he'll ever score again

  26. jack says:

    langdon or taylor to cutler?

  27. James says:

    who to bench out of : mcdonold, langdon, laider, georgieo?

  28. James says:

    trade out ellis this week or gray or roberson ? or wait til next week or week after and get a differnt player on the bubble ie lennon?

    same with dunstan?

  29. Gold Rush says:

    Anybody know what's going on with Tom Mitchell, thought he was injured but hasn't appeared on their injury list WTF?

    • SCaddict says:

      Will probably struggle to get back in the seniors in the short term and may have to find some footy in the NEAFL first. Goodesy is back this weekend and a good chance that Tippo and Reid will return the following week so there are only so many spots to go around.

      So if you still have Titch it's probably time to move him on or would only hold him one more week tops. Roughie could be a good trade in option next week with a massive BE of 149 if you don't already have him. Or alternatively downgrades to Lloyd and Fasolo this week could also be considered.

    • Bob McBob says:

      Pretty sure he was dropped to recover from a sore ankle and obviously hasn't made the team

    • Gold Rush says:

      Thanks boys, already have Faz & Lloyd, exterminated Titch for Ports Robbie Gray as a POD.

  30. Remy says:

    Dave Mundy?
    A seriously good player…Under priced too.

    • Bruds says:

      When Barlow comes back in i can see him giving less output and he'd have to be a keeper for the rest of the year but i haven't seen him ever produce those massive 140/150 scores that other plays can

  31. Aarmy says:

    Who here thinks it's feasible to have Pendles, Beams and now SWAN in their midfield? Only going for league.

    Thinking:
    Downgrade Rohan to Sam Lloyd in fwd line
    Upgrade Dom Tyson to Swan in mids

    My current mids: GAJ, Pendles, Beams, Cotchin, Macrae, Polec, Tyson, Dunstan (E), Ellis (E)
    Current fwds: Danger, Parker, Gunston, Wingard, Fasolo, Kennedy-Harris, Rohan (E), Ambrose (E)

    Questions:
    1. Instead of the above, should I do Tyson to Robertson for a double downgrade this week, then grab Griffen (or similar) and another upgrade next, missing the Swan train?
    2. What upgrade path should I follow in the mids and fwds? In other words, who to get rid of first, second etc.?

    • Aarmy says:

      Sorry, missed M.Crouch as M8 in my mids.

    • Bruds says:

      Hey aarmy
      I'm going the double downgrade this week because i feel that there may be better value than swan later in the year and he is getting older and may get injured or rested at some point
      Robertson and Lloyd would be a good choice

  32. Osh says:

    Do I go Sam gray or nick Robertson for Xavier Ellis

    • Bruds says:

      Robertson has much better job security and his huge first round score was in a blowout win and he won't score that again

  33. john snow says:

    I've got some injuries this round. Ellis, Kelly, Rohan and M.Thomas out.

    I'm thinking I need to finally get rid of Rohan. The obvious choice is Lloyd

    Now for the mids, I'm thinking of getting rid of Thomas for Roberston. I could also trade up and get Swan. Problem is I already have Pendles and Beams. Or should I hold onto Thomas, I don't know how bad his knee is. I could also trade Kelly or Ellis for Robertson

    Only interested in League wins. Robertson or Swan? Or any other options?????

    • Bruds says:

      i think Robertson would be a good call, he is named on the ball even though he may not play there the whole game but making the cash now is priority and you can assess who the top premo mids are in a few weeks and get them in then

  34. Bob McBob says:

    Defence:
    S.Mitchell, Swallow, McVeigh, McDonald, Langdon, Kolodjashnij (Langford, Georgiou)

    Mids:
    Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Sheuy, Liberatore, Macrae, Polec, Dunstan (Ellis, Crouch)

    Rucks:
    Jacobs, Sandilands (Thurlow, King)

    Forwards:
    Dangerfield, Martin, Merrett, Fasolo, T.Mitchell, Impey (McDonough, JKH)

    Thinking Ellis -> Hooker/Hibberd/Other Option
    And T.Mitchell for Sam Lloyd and then next week upgrade Impey. Are these good trade?

    • Bruds says:

      I would agree bringing in Hibberd would be a good move, i can see him averaging 90-100 for the rest of the season.
      Your call out of Lloyd and Billings, i think they have similar job security but it is hard to predict which will be better
      Lloyd is my pick just because he is that chunk cheaper

    • Gold Rush says:

      Like Hooker myself, just got a few other structural adjustments to make before I can consider him.

  35. Maenads says:

    As Jock says, Stand Up Peoples. This site is turning into a selfish diatribe of "what about my team" boring meaningless word fest.
    Great articles are written and analysis done then its "do I trade A 4 B"
    Solution: crack a tinny and act like a decisive beast.
    Me: Robbie Gray in for Tyson ( swung L,Taylor back to mids F 9/10).

  36. Bricksavvy says:

    I'm NOT trading in crouch this week after seeing him named on an extended bench. Love too,but gone billings instead. Better security.

  37. john snow says:

    nothing wrong with asking peoples opinions on what trades to make. Lighten up pencil dick

  38. Bruds says:

    What are people's opinions on rookies this week
    Who wouldn't you pick out of Robertson, Lloyd and Billings?

  39. dylan cox says:

    Have $576,300 in the bank trading out L.Dunstan and tossing up between B.Ebert and A.Treloar. Who should I trade in?

  40. Hussler says:

    What do you guys reckon of Nathan jones? Could be a good pod.

  41. Michael says:

    Interesting stats – Premium players ($500K+ at start of year) that have dropped $50K+ YTD that scored 100+ last week:

    Danger $558.1K (-$50.9K YTD, scored 192, BE 60, owned by 61% of teams)
    Montagna $565.3K (-$53.7K, 140, BE 123, 0.6%)
    Scott Thompson $453.7K (-$72.7K, 136, BE 18, 0.5%)
    Mundy $495.2K (-$64.3K, 134, BE 121, 1.1%)
    Swan $521K (-$111.6K, 122, BE 78, 8.1%)
    Griffin $525.5K (-$102.1K, 117, BE 100, 2.1%)
    McVeigh $519.3K (-$53.2K, 114, BE 91, 27.2%)
    Cloke $354K (-$159.4K, 114, BE 68, 3.4%) – major plums required!
    Hannebery $460.6K (-$53.6K, 113, BE 100, 1.7%)
    NicNat $408.5K (-$110.3K, 107, BE 114, 6.1%)
    Andrew Walker $498.2K (-$74.3K, 101, BE 127, 6.4%)

    These will form the majority of your cheap upgrade targets if you haven't already got some of them.
    Note Montagna, Thompson, Mundy, Hannebery as very attractive in terms of POD.

    Hope this helps you all narrow your choices down a little!

  42. Bray says:

    Who would be a better option to get in Cutler, or Robinson.?

  43. Pete says:

    I'm thinking double-downgrade this week to Cutler and Lloyd to build the war chest so that I can cherry pick some fallen premiums heading into the byes – is this strategy better than single downgrade and premo upgrade this week? Will sacrifice some points this week, but it's hard to tell how many more downgrade options (especially in fwd/def lines) will come up in the near future.

  44. Nick says:

    Thoughts on upgrading caddy to Roo. If not ehat other premium should I bring in?

  45. Mathew says:

    Montagna or Fyfe?
    Also wondering if people think Hibbered is worth the extra $50K over Hooker?

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