Higgo’s Supercoach Line Betting Machine – Week 3

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach betting by on April 4, 2014 • views: 647

higgoThe Machine gets smashed!

Credit where it is due; The Sportsbet lines were very accurate this week with four of the nine games being forecasted to within 10.5 points. As published previously, I am in this until season’s end or until my $100 runs out.

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Round 2 output statistics

Round 2   Winner   Margin Machine     Error Sportsbet   Error
Tigers V Blues Tigers 12 12 3.5
Ess. V Hawks Hawks 16 4 10.5
Saints V GWS Saints 7 6 21.5
Port V Adelaide Port 54 62 47.5
Freo V G.Coast Freo 48 22 12.5
Sydney V C.Wood C.Wood 10 60 31.5
Bris. V Geelong Geelong 25 9 0.5
Demons V WCE WCE 93 45 51.5
Dogs V North North 29 35 9.5
Average   Game Error 28.33 20.94

And the Round 2 Summary Table;

The Machine GAME ERORR Sporstbet GAME ERROR No. Bets Wins Profit/Loss Bank (Starting with $100)
Rd 1  40.95 38.55 5 3 $3.80 $103.80
Rd 2 31.4 24.1 6 2 -$10.80 $93.00

And now to this week’s bets;

Round 3 Formulated Winner Formulated Margin Sportsbet  Line Diff.  BET
1 Hawks V Freo Freo 8 6.5 1.5 No bet
2 Dogs V Tigers Tigers 34 18.5 15.5 $5 TIGERS at line
3 Crows V Swans Swans 7 6.5 0.5 No bet
4 GCS V Lions GCS 13 7.5 5.5 No bet
5 WCE V Saints WCE 34 63.5 29.5 $5 SAINTS at line
6 C.Wood V Cats Cats 12 8.5 3.5 No bet
7 GWS V Demons GWS 21 22.5 1.5 No bet
8 North V Port Port 6 4.5 1.5 No bet
9 Ess. V Carlton Ess. 27 14.5 12.5 $5 ESS. at line

Can The Machine fight back?

This week I was a little pleased to see The Machine’s lines more closely match Sportsbet’s lines. Currently it has won five of its 11 bets ….. three wins this week will have The Machine back in profit by a whopping $6.80.

Of course, the money is of little interest to me. What really excites me is the ability to take on the Sportsbet model through the use of my own mathematical forecasting.

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham

 

Comments (10)

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  1. Liam says:

    Alright boys, this weeks multi : Hawthorne 1-39 ($2.10) into Brisbane with 14.5 points start ($1.53) into Sydney to win by 6+ points ($2.00) into Port to win ($1.83). This will get us juicy odds of $11.75!

    Enjoy

    PS: Collingwood v geelong is too close to call. If you can find a 'pick your own total points' market think the above 175 total is the way to go. Also can see the chance of a Western Bulldogs upset on the cards but not confident to put the hard earned $$ on it!!!

  2. Josh says:

    The predictor might have it wrong on the West Coast vs Saints game…

  3. GeneralSoreness says:

    Higgo loving your work.

    Working on two variations (the General Principle and the Soreness Deviation) using your machine selection as the foundation. Two weeks in results are promising, the Soreness Deviation $17.60 profit after round 2 is currently outperforming the General Principle $1.46 profit after round 2. I will keep testing a post results.

  4. bay says:

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