Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 2

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach, Supercoach 2014 by on March 25, 2014 • views: 8518

mick-the-madHello again community and welcome to the first good and proper TAT (Tight Arse Tuesday) of the new season.

Oh how good is it that round 1 is finally behind us so we can take stock of what we have locked in, access the damage (if any) of some of our selections, and most importantly decide if we need to make any trades.

I used to be along the line of thinking that you do not trade after round one, but that was back in the day when we were limited to just 20 trades in a year. As we all know the rules have changed and we now have 30 trades for the year, and with such a large number, corrective trades early are now an important aspect of this game.

However this doesn’t mean we should just trade for the sake of trading and before I analysis some potential value pick-ups, I think it’s important to stress what warrants a trade and what doesn’t.

LISTENED TO THE PRE ROUND 2 PODCAST? CLICK HERE

The biggest mistake I have seen is what I have called “Outside Trading”. It is effectively a sideways trade where the main motivations for trading come from factors external to your actual team. You trade in a player that you feel you’ve missed out on because they had a really big round 1 score, for somebody in your team that just happens to be in the same price bracket (and they may or may not have had a bad round 1 score).

For example trading in Bartel in the defense for someone like Mitchel or McVeigh based solely on the perceived “need” to get Bartel in and not based on what you have actually selected in your backline. Yes Bartelproved to be a great round 1 selection but he doesn’t warrant a trade from Mitchel or McVeigh just because you didn’t select him to start with. You selected Mitchel and McVeigh for good reason and over the course of 23 rounds the chances are they will still average what you expected from them in the first place.

The type of trading we should all be doing after round one is what I call “Internal Trading”. This is where the motivation for the trade comes from internal factors within your own team. These are injuries, rookies not playing, suspensions and lastly under performing players.

Now the first few examples are easy to spot so I don’t have to go into much detail there. However accessing an under performing player based on one game is quite difficult and a lot of analysing should be performed before you hit the trade button. Last thing you want to do is trade out a player this week for him to pump out great scores over the coming rounds. When assessing under performing players you really need to analysis their game from round 1 and ask yourself has anything changed in their game from when you selected them in the first place? Sometimes players just have bad games.

Tom Liberatore only scored 79pts but he still played all game in the midfield, got 27 touches, 6 clearances and laid 3 tackles. His low score wasn’t got to do with anything changing with his game. He just butchered the ball under heavy pressure from a dominate West Coast side, in a game where his side were well beaten. There will be weeks where his side will dominate and he will score 140+, thus averaging out his score to the 110 we all expect from him. This is a perfect example of a player you have to keep if you have selected him in your side.

For the 20% of coaches who selected Franklin to start with, I’m sure many are weighing up if they need to trade him or not. Now I don’t like Franklin as a selection but for those of you who picked him, you did pick him for a reason and what you have got to ask yourself is, has any of those reasons changed based on one game? You would have known that Franklin was going to be inconsistent and is just as likely to get 50 points as he is to get 150 points. You picked him because he is capable of massive scores and the perceived notion that he would average over 100 once again this year. You have got to ask yourself has anything changed in just one game? Personally I don’t think it has but then I also thought he wouldn’t average over 100 this year and that’s why I didn’t pick him. If you picked Franklin as a keeper then I think you’ve got to stick with him, but its one rollercoaster ride I’m glad I didn’t get on.

Now for the 43% of coaches (myself included) that selected Dale Thomas we have to ask ourselves all the same questions. Has anything changed? For me personally things have changed. I went into this year with a midprice strategy with an aggressive trading plan that if successful would see me get to full premium in round 11. I was banking on Dale Thomas averaging 90 to the byes and been able to turn him into a premium keeper in round 9. All my analysis suggested that Dale would quite easily average 90 and would appreciate to 450k come round 9. Now it was obvious from watching Dale against Port that he was very under done and he lacked the match fitness to run the game out in the second half. I still think Dasiy will go on and average 90 for the year but now I’m worried he will be a slow burner and won’t start to produce 100+ scores until the second half of the year. As my intention is to have him moved on by the byes anyway these scores will be little good to me. It is for that reason that I am considering making a corrective trade for Dale Thomas and if I feel there is anyone out there who can fulfill this role within my team then I might just do it this week.

That leads me nicely into what you are all here for, “Tight Arse Options” . This week I’m going to look at some corrective trades options that could come from the biggest surprise package of round one, the GWS Gaints. There are many things to consider so let’s jump right in there.

Are GWS the real deal?

The Giants only won a single game in 2013 and were easily the worst or second worst (Melbourne) team in all of the stat categories that mattered. To come out and not only beat Sydney, an early premiership contender but do so quite comfortably was a shock to many in the footballing world. So the big question remains was this just a flash in the pan or are GWS the real deal. Below is a table showing GWS’s average stats from 2013 compared to their first round stats against Sydney.

GWS Table

Yes there is a lot of green in the differential column but how can we gauge where GWS are at from just one game? A game in which the weather can attribute to high tackle counts, contested possessions, hit outs and one percenters, all the stats where GWS have their highest increases.

If only there was another expansion club who has been in the competition for one extra year so we could see how they developed in their third year! Oh wait……

GWS Suns Compare

The table above shows the team stats for both GWS and GCS from their 3 and 2 years respectively in the competition. What you may or may not find amazing is that both their stats for the same year are quite similar. Both teams drop off in their second year, which can be contributed to and/or prove the theory of second years blues. Then what we should all get excited about is that Gold Coast improved dramatically in year 3. The fact that both their stats and trends are so similar over their first two years I don’t see why we can’t assume that GWS will improve drastically in their third year too. If round one is anything to go by then we may already have proof that they will.

Players Compare

The table above shows the progress of the players that have been with Gold Coast for the full three years. None of McKenzie, Bennell, Prestia or Dixon featured in Gold Coasts top 10 ranked Supercoach players in their first year. In their 3rd year they all made it up to the top 7 in their rankings with the lowest average coming in at 88.5 Supercoach points per round.

Players Compare 2

The table above shows the progress of the GWS players over their first two years. Callan Ward has been their best Supercoach player to date. He’s no Gary Ablett Jnr but then he wasn’t brought in as the finished article and was very much still in the developing stage. I expect Callan Ward will develop further again this year and improve on his average from last year in doing so. He is still regarded as the main man and I’d expect opposition teams would put the most work into limiting his impact on the game, especially in the early part of the year.

It’s the other guys below him that I have highlighted that interest me more. These are the guys that I expect will replicate what Gold Coast Suns 3rd year players achieved last year, and improve on their averages in 2014. Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up.

Jeremy Cameron

Round 1 Score 77
Breakeven 63
Current Price $392,000
Priced to Average 73

Jeremy didn’t exactly go bang in round 1 but there are certain reasons for that too. The game was won in the last quarter and it was won out of the midfield and at the stoppages. The points flowed accordingly to the midfielders who influenced, (We’ll get to them later).

I’ve included Jeremy Cameron on this list because I believe we can draw comparisons between his development and that of Charlie Dixon at the Gold Coast. Dixon is now Gold Coasts number one key forward and with the development of the players in the Gold Coast’s midfield the supply into the forward 50 gave Dixon more opportunities to kick goals and score more supercoach points. Dixon’s disposal count remained the same from 2012 to 2013 but he took more marks inside 50 (up 0.3 a game) and kicked more goals (up 1.2 a game).

As I expect to see a similar improvement in the Gaints midfield this year I can also see Cameron having more opportunities to kick goals this year too. Also with the fit again Patton providing the target at full forward it should allow the more agile Cameron to push up the ground and collect more possessions, playing more like a Nick Reiwolt or Rarad Roughead. Last year Cameron averaged 10 disposals and 3 goals a game. This year I’d expect him to average up on 15 disposals and 3.5 goals a game. (Will come very close to a Colman medal). He kicked four against Sydney last week but didn’t manage to find the pill that much, with 9 disposals but I think that will come in the games not affected by the wet weather.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2013 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 89-93pts
Average to the Byes from here: 98-102pts

Final Word:
Probably not a player I’d be rushing out to get in round 2 but one I’d have locked into my watchlist that could be used if selections like Higgins and Caddy turn sour in a few weeks’ time. If you already selected him then I’d be pretty happy even if he didn’t produce a monster score in round 1.

Toby Green

Round 1 Score 96
Breakeven 27
Current Price $394,600
Priced to Average 73

Toby was drafted with pick 11 in the 2011 national draft as one of the 11 first round draft picks the Giants had in 2011. He was selected as a midfielder and has been part of the midfield group down at the Giants ever since. He was arguably their best young player in his debut season and he would go on to average 94 Supercoach points in his first year.

Last year proved to be a little more difficult for Toby and like many young kids suffered a little of the second year blues dropping off in almost all of the major stat categories. The table below shows his stats over the first couple of years and form his first game this year against the Swans.

Toby Green

I don’t think we shouldn’t get too carried away from his stats against Sydney, as I did say above the conditions did make it a midfielders game, with more stoppage and thus more contested possessions, tackles and clearances. However I expect to see a vast improvement on his stats from 2013, more in line with what he had in 2012.

The dynamic of the midfield group has changed slightly on last year as the Giants off loaded some of their many midfielders (Dyson going to Melbourne and Adams going to Collingwood). This will free up more time for Tody to play in the midfield this year and give him and the remaining midfield group time to gel and nail down their roles for the team. Toby can play both an inside and outside role but I’d expect him to play more on the outside as the Gaints have Ward, Trelour and Sheil as their main inside players. Expect him to play half forward, on the wing and rotated through the middle and expect him to increase his numbers back to 2012 levels.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 92-97pts
Predicted Average to the byes: 96-101pts

Final Word:
Depending on your team’s structure and trading plans Green could be a great midprice option if you have really mucked up your starting selections. If you are happy to move him on during or after the bye he should score well above his starting price to be worth the selection. However he is by no means a keeper and with no forward or backline eligibility it might be hard to justify a trade now, only to move him on again later. That however if up to you to decide. If you are one of the 1,893 of coaches who did select Green then I’d be a very happy coach.

Stephen Coniglio

Round 1 Score 108
Breakeven 6
Current Price $399,400
Priced to Average 71.4

Stephen was drafted with pick 2 in the 2011 national draft as one of the 11 first round draft picks the Giants had in 2011. He was selected as a midfielder and has been part of the midfield group down at the Giants ever since..

There hasn’t been all that much hype around this top 2 draftee as he really hasn’t shown is full capability just yet. Both years to date have been serviceable with his second year stats slightly behind that of what he produced in his first year. The table below shows his stats over the first couple of years and form his first game this year against the Swans.

Stephen Coniglio

Stephen is very much and outside as can be seen by the fact that over 65% of his possessions are uncontested. The biggest area that needs improvement would have to be his disposal efficiency and despite scoring so well against Sydney this was still well down at just 37%. It’s a stat I would worry about but like I said above the dynamic has changed and Stephen is now very much a part of the Giants best 22 and should get consistent opportunities to play off the wing in 2014.

He did manage 27 touches and if the inside battle continues to be won by Ward, Trelour and co then he should be first on hand to receive the ball from the bottom of the packs. Wouldn’t be surprised if he averages 24+ possessions and am backing will improve his disposal efficiency up to the 65-70% range by the seasons end.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 88-92pts
Predicted Average to the byes: 90-95pts

Final Word:
Much the same as Green above it will very much depend on your structures and it may be very hard to justify a trade now, only to move him on again later. If I was going to pick between the two I would probably go Green over Coniglio as Green will offer just a little more on the inside. If you are one of the 1,446 of coaches who did select Coniglio, again I’d be a very happy coach.

Dylan Shiel

Round 1 Score 41
Breakeven 145
Current Price $407,400
Priced to Average 75.5

Dylan Shiel was in and out of my preseason team so when he started as the sub against Sydney I was very surprised. I don’t see that happening every week and don’t be surprised to see Dylan feature in “Tight Arse Tuesday” in a few weeks’ time.

For now, sit tight and whack him on the watchlist.

Adam Treloar

Round 1 Score 154
Breakeven -47
Current Price $469,500
Priced to Average 87

Ok before we go any further, its very important to remember that for all of us who don’t have Treloar those 154 points he scored in round 1 are gone and by bringing him in now we won’t get to touch any of them. What we should be asking ourselves is what is he likely to score in the remaining games this season.

As I’ve stated numerous times now, the game against the Swans was made for midfielders to score points due to the conditions. Treloar had 18 contested possessions, 8 clearances and 8 tackles. He won’t produce those numbers every week. Lets take a look at his stats over his first two years.

Adam Treloar

Adam was actually one of the few Giants players to improve on his first year stats in 2013. He found more of the ball, improved on his contested numbers, tackles count and endurance, playing more time on ground.

His numbers are very much in line with what we have come to expect from players who are about to break out and the fact that he was named in the centre and played the majority of the game there against the Swans I believe he will get every opportunity to become a break out player this year.
I’d expect to see him average 26+ disposals a game, increase is contested numbers to 12+ a game, clearances to 4.5+ a game and tackle count to 4.5+ a game. That been said he should easily average 105+ for the year.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 102-106pts
Predicted Average to the byes 110-114pts

Final Word:
If you have some extra cash in your back and are sure the current midprice option (Savage or Thomas) you have selected in your midfield is a dud I’m be confident it pulling the tiger and bringing in Treloar. However don’t get too carried away with your expectations, he will not score 150+ on a regular basis and will give you a few sub-par scores along the way. I personally will most likely have another look at him this week and may very well get him in next.

Shane Mumford – (Pick of the Week)

Round 1 Score 132
Breakeven 12
Current Price $496,000
Priced to Average 92

Before I call it for today I just thought I’d add a final segment to Tight Arse Tuesday, labelled “Pick of the Week”

Sticking with the GWS boys I have made Shane Mumford my round 2 pick of the week. If any of you are unhappy with your first choice rucks (Minson, Goldstien, Naitanui or even Ryder) then don’t be afraid to switch them out for Shane Mumford.

I have seen enough from Mumford’s performance against Pyke last week to confidently predict Mumford will feature in the top 5 averaging ruckmen for the year. He is as fit now as I have ever seen the big man and he dominated against the player Sydney thought was the better ruck going forward. What makes this trade even more tempting is looking at GWS’s draw until the byes. Get Mumford in now and your Ruck department with him and Sandilands should get off to a very fast start.

St Kilda (Hickey), Melbourne (Spencer), Western Bulldogs (Minson), Adelaide (Jacobs), Gold Coast (Nichols) and West Coast (Cox/Naitanui). Only West Coast and maybe the Doggies should provide any problems for Mumford and I’d expect him to dominate in the rest.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Elite
Predicted Average from here on out: 109-113pts
Predicted Average to the byes 115-119pts

Final Word:
Welcome to the Mayhem!

Next week I will be looking at another club that should offer up some early corrective trade bargains, Melbourne Demons.

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

 

Tune into the fun earlier this week:

Mondays Poll – Will you make a corrective trade this week?

 

Comments (170)

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  1. Mitch says:

    Great Work Mick!

  2. lostlarrikin says:

    Ripper stuff Mick!
    Where you placed after rnd 1?

    Dont think ill be making any trades this wk. Hold!
    Thankfully steered clear of Webster, Missy and Savage, tho this hasnt yielded me a monster score.

    Congrats to all those who picked mummy, hope he stays strong…

  3. @HJ_Mitch says:

    Brilliant article, Mick, bloody brilliant!!

  4. David Bleakley says:

    Great article, looking very closely at GWS. Keep it up

  5. Jimmy says:

    Great article Mick. Was thinking of going Redden to Treloar, I was not impressed with Redden at all but will probs give it 1 more week.

  6. Jezza says:

    Mick what are your thoughts on rockliff given that he's suspended

    • Kev says:

      Didn't like his tagging role at all and I'm at a loss as to why Leppitsch would put use his best mid in that role. Your wisdom is needed Mick. Keep or hold?

  7. Beard says:

    Hey mate,

    I scored 2314 last week and am on top of my personal league with friends and family thanks to some valueable imput from this place.

    So thanks guys.

    Bit of help – Lachlan Hunter looks a great pick up for me and I've put him in for Rohan. Thoughts?

    I'm going to give Daisy another week and if he goes crap I'll switch to either Shiels or Tyson

    Then my last trades planned are McDonald going for someone cheap perhaps Laidler and before round 4 Hanley is going to need to step up or he's gone.

    Any advise boys?

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      awesome mate.

      Good call on daisy. One more week for me. I am thinking down to tyson rather than shiels at this stage if i have to.

    • Tyson will feature in TAT next week guys – with rockliff out this week i'm going rohan to Tyson with Taylor getting flicked forward. Means Daisy stays for this week. Amazing how quick plans can change in this game!! Dam you Rockliff

      Great scores to start with Beard

  8. Callum says:

    Should we be trading Luke mcdonald? Great write up to mick

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      absolutely not mate.

    • neil the nail says:

      15 tocuhes in a team that was slaughtered

    • WombatsFC says:

      If you haven't got two of langford, langdon, Georgiou and laidler as your D7/8 YES.
      LMcD is only only in your team to make $ and all the others are cheaper and scoring higher therefore make much more dollar.
      SuckerPunch LMcD now and use the extra $ to fix up your forwardline.

      • Captain joc says:

        Give him another week mate and access it after next week because then you can figure out who is better and who is not he is playing the doggies this week and I can see him going a bit better . It was only his first game hold fire , that way you don’t waste a trade because he could come out with a 100 and the other rookies might only get 30-70s

    • If your looking to make a little cash I'd consider going to on of the cheeper backmean like Langford, Langdon or Georgiou if you don't have them already.

  9. daniel17778 says:

    Hey fellas,
    looking to trade out walker this week, and I'm stuck on who do get:
    Simpson. Birchall, Grimes, Swallow or anyone else you think is a possible option.
    Any help would be appreciated. Thanx

  10. THE SALTSHAKER says:

    Am backing Daisy, might need 3 or4 games but will avg 130 for the month there after, often takes a few to get going, once fit his workrate is elite, superstar, also getting paid $2.8m over 4yrs, definitely part of carltons plans (with confidence)

    • WombatsFC says:

      I think that there might be something other than salt in the saltshaker. Daisy averaging 130 mate you have some quality hallucinogens.

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        Haha I said for a month, he is known to have groups of large games i dont mean for the year. Ive had him in my SC sides in the past, anyone who thinks he wont be of value once he finds match fitness is tripping more than me

    • Yeah back him in – go with your judgement. He gets another week in the Mayhem too but is gone next week if the doesn't score 85+

      • THE SALTSHAKER says:

        Yeah i hear ya, would be better for my structure but ive traded him out before on what i deemed sub par daisy, then went nuts. Was bleeding, am loath to write him off

  11. JT says:

    Hey guys, on the topic of corrective trades… I have midfield rookies that include dunstan, michie, x Ellis, Aish and templeton. Is it worth moving on any of them to squeeze in must haves like Polec or dom Tyson? (Obviously not dunstan)

    Concerns are Michie Aish Ellis not scoring as prolifically as Polec and Tyson.

    • JT says:

      I also have daisy…

      And subbed fwd rookies JKH and L Taylor….

      • Jim from Gippsland says:

        fight the biggest fire first mate. If not this week, then next week you will need polec and Tyson. Michie is OK to carry. So is jkh and Taylor.

    • WombatsFC says:

      I agree, you should be concerned.
      A couple of bad rookie selection could cost your $100,000 after round 3 but we dont really know who the duds are after just 1 round.
      Will Tyson get more attention and Michie less in week 2?
      Will the eagles backline see the ball a bit more in round 2 and therefore allow xEllis to get the sherrin a few more times?
      Will Simpson run with Polec and keep him to 4 posessions?
      Will the GWS midfield beat up Dunstan?
      Aish against the Cats?

      I'm lucky enough to have all of the highest scoring rookies in my team before the first bounce so I don't share your torment, although I do find it slightly amusing to know that thousands of others do.

      • JT says:

        Cheers for the reassuring words WombatsFC :-/
        But you are spot on, so many unknowns atm. Might hold, might trade. Hopefully the answers are in the teams.

      • Bender says:

        Hi WFC
        Without being a clairvoyant I am going to try to answer some of those questions you have brought up.
        1. I am slightly worried about Tyson receiving more attention from now on and believe that he will eventually get tagged most weeks, but hopefully not before a nice profit by round 10.
        2. Not likely against Melbourne at the MCG, but lets hope so
        3. Not sure who Simpson is. The Power play the Crows in the Showdown at Adelaide Oval
        4. Good chance of that not happening with St Kilda welcoming back Hayes and Montagna for some handy support. If anything I think they will beat up on the young GWS midfield.
        5. Can't see why Aish wouldn't score about the same against the Cats. Hawthorn are a pretty good team too.

        • WombatsFC says:

          Thanks Bender.
          I must have had some bad Carrots. As you pointed out Simmo played Port last week and Mad Mick has already missed the bloody obvious.

    • Polec will be the highest scoring player under 200k this year. I'd be getting him in. If you can have another look at your rookies this week.

  12. cyril is the man says:

    Daisy will average over 130 for a month……… big call

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      hmm…I'm on the daisy train but 90 to 100 might be more realistic.

    • WombatsFC says:

      I agree Cyril. But maybe Saltshaker meant Daisy'd average 130 trips to the bench p/month, not 130 pts p/game.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      He has done it a number of times yet finished with 94 to 109 avg for the season, was on his way last year before inj struck 150, 105 go to footywire check out his purple patches. He is just easing himself into the season, will take a few games. Anyone looking to offload him now shouldnt have picked him in first place

  13. mightymicks says:

    Mick, nice to see tight ass Tuesday, reaching the highs of last year. Well done mate.

  14. GarglesnarfFC says:

    Like this format Mick! Superb work from you. Was thinking of dumping Rocky for the suspension

    • neil the nail says:

      so tempted to swap him out for watson

    • with Rockliff out this week i'm going Rohan to Tyson with Taylor getting flicked forward. Means Daisy stays for this week and Tyson will take Rockliffs place on the field. Amazing how quick plans can change in this game!! Dam you Rockliff

    • Dogs says:

      I had some cash left after R1 , so plan was to trade Thomas up to treloar and suckling to swallow. Now with rocky off for the week I'll be forced to play 4 mid rookies out of polec, michie, dunstan, Ellis and Cunningham.
      I was set on my original trades but now thinking i might be too light in the midfield , even tho I have some good scores from the rookies last round , in no way are they guaranteed to repeat

  15. Jim from Gippsland says:

    Mick me mate.

    Absolute top shelf write up mate.

    However with the exception of mummy, if you don't already have those gws boys….pass.

    Love the thoughts on daisy, but surely unless there are holes that can't be filled, surely we always try to wait for a second week at every chance we get.

    I worry for some the downgrade of daisy feeds a second trade….not ideal.

  16. Jim from Gippsland says:

    Week 1 is a great time to save a trade.

    #getanadvantage

  17. @klavo25 says:

    Biting the bullet and corrective trading this week. Not because I was unhappy with Libba, more to the fact I’m scared of having hickey & sandi as my rucks.

    Out: Libba, Hickey

    In: Mumford, Swallow (swinging swallow to defence)

    Can see mummy averaging over 120 until bye rounds

    Should tear the saints(hickey) a new one getting another 40 touches.

    I really should wait 1 more round but don’t want to miss out on Mumford score

    • @klavo25 says:

      Hitouts not touches lol I wish ;)

      • zimmerbd says:

        What's Mumford's score going to be? Fairly strange trades for mine. If you were scared of having Hickey & Sandi as Rucks, why did you pick them? Not having a go. Just wondering.

        • @klavo25 says:

          I thought Goldstein might be out for 6-8 and I was thinking currie will get a fair bit of game time due to his absence. Hickey was only back up. Looks like I’ll have to play him

    • WombatsFC says:

      Rule 1:
      "Don't trade after round 1 unless they are suspended or injured".

      Rule 1 – Clause1:
      "Don't trade the expensive ones after round 1 unless they are injured or suspended"

  18. Lincoln says:

    Rockliff.. New role? Out for this week? Do we burn a trade to Watson? Who we know what his role is..etc, do we want a rookie score?

    • Derek says:

      only one week, you have to keep him and take a rookie on the field.

    • I'm holding Rockliff. I will only trade out a keeper if they miss 2 or more games. Thats my rule but with 30 trades I wouldn't be too concerned to hear people using one this week on Rockliff. Watson is a safe bet.

      • Jye says:

        So you're confident Rockliff will bounce back and score as well as he did at the end of last year?

  19. Tim says:

    Hey Mick, great stuff!

    I’m a big believer that each year the elite ruckmen expose their form early in the season. Any concerns from your angle about Giles getting some ruck time, or a dip in GWS form affecting mumfords scores? Just thought Jacobs might be a safer bet atm with fewer quality ruckmen at the crows?

    • Giles will help out in the ruck but Mumford will be the main man. It contested 80% of the ball ups vs Sydney. I like his chances of scoring well early.

      • Philthy says:

        Mummy was always going to be a raging bull against the Swans Rd 1, he was on a mission. Don't get me wrong he is a great player, you will just have to be prepared for a few weeks rest courtesy of the tribunal at some stage….

  20. throttlefinger says:

    Strong stuff, MIck. Steeped deep in the data as we like.

    Think you're right with the pick of the week if you're highly dissatisfied with your ruck. But even still would wait a week. Another look will give a better idea what you're getting. (and that's more a reminder for me as last year I was trading for the sake of trading).

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      throttle my overseas brother…

      You are correct.. don't panic trade……always take two weeks if you can.

      • throttlefinger says:

        JFG what it be, my man?

        Gonna try. Worried about Webster. Think he'll make the field this week. How's it going on your end? (besides the Daisy stress)

        • Jim from Gippsland says:

          Wait till teams named mate.- you had a good first week, just wait and don't burn…..-.

    • Yes if you can hold don't trade just for the sake of it. Always have a plan in mind.

      • throttlefinger says:

        Thanks Mick. Right now resisting urge to go Ryder to Mummy. Would be an outside trade, as you said. Hard to be bitchy about someone getting 96. Somehow Paddy's performance inspires it. Bite the bullet.

  21. WombatsFC says:

    I finished above my expected score (2260) and all my rookies were the best rookies in their positions. my letdowns were by Premium/Elite players and an unfortunate groin injury to Webster.
    McVeigh, Mitchell & Boomer all stunk.
    I don’t care about Mitchells score because I watched the game and know that he won’t face the same circumstances again and this will most probably be his lowest score this year.
    I’m livid about McVeigh because I’ve been posting to this forum about how stupid it would be to select him since November and I swapped him in for jimmy at the last minute.
    Boomer was another stupid choice, I dumped Chappy to put him in because I thought Chappy might ping the Hammy again in his first hit out.
    I will trade both Boomer & McVeigh but, not this week. McVeigh got 150 against the Pies at ANZ last year and after such a stinker last week he will play his hardest this week and might even reach the 150 mark again so, he’ll be down-traded to Swallow after round 2 unless Swallow has a stinker.
    Boomer is another player with a history of following up an absolute stinker with a 150+ plus apology so I keep him for this week as well but then I’ll trade him for whoever is likely to increase in value most amongst the mid-priced mid/for fraternity.

    • WombatsFC says:

      Correction I do have Dud. Another last minute swap resulted in that nuffa Taylor grabbing M10 from Michie due to the interchangability aspect.

    • throttlefinger says:

      Have McV and thought he played really well the first half then stunk it up the second. He will be repay in spades in the long run.

      Like Swallow too yet would be interested to see how he does R2 vs. Freo. So, if Swallow goes sub 80 and McV goes 110+, would you still make the trade. Point being, one round does not make the player.

      And with KJack coming back should make things easier for McV, Wombats.

      No comment on the Boomer selection other than I think you're right he will bounce back big.

      • WombatsFC says:

        Hi Throttle we get round 1 in the dome.

        Like the drunk potatoe muncher said The SydneyvGWS game was a midfielders paradise yet McVeigh was ordinary.
        Why?
        Because he's too damn old and arthritic to bend over far enough to pick up the ball! He doesn't shave his head that is natural baldness from being the only AFL player so old he doesn't have a birth certificate. When he first played in 1967 he was listed as being 22 y.o. in his 1994 comeback he was listed as 27 y.o.

        The downtrade to Swallow is conditional on Swallow scoring at least 90 and is financial as much as it is structural; I'm undecided as to who the best 6 defenders are and doubt that McVeigh is one of them.

        • throttlefinger says:

          Yeah, we'll see about McV. Don't think a round 1 stud or dud paints a proper picture (see Zorko and Sauce from last season). Goes the same for Swallow. See how he does against Freo. Now that will be a good indicator if he's the real deal or not if he can go ton against their formidable D.

          Look forward to going toe-to-toe Round 3, Wombats.

          • Bender says:

            My only concern with Swallow is that despite scoring 135 he still did not spend a whole lot of time in the midfield. He played his 2013 role off half back and then moved to the forward flank in the second half. He obviously did some really nice things to score what he did, but I will be motoring his midfield time closely against the Dockers this week to see if he's worth jumping onto. McVeigh and Hanley are in the firing line for me

            • throttlefinger says:

              Those two will be fine. They are studs. Bad first game. Can see both going 110+ this week. Just too good.

              Opposite of Swallow. Will be surprised if he breaks 95 vs. Freo.

              • Rocksta says:

                I'm going to wait and see on Swallow. He looked great but agree with Bender that he didn't spend a lot of time in the midfield. With Bennel due back this week, it seems even less likely that he'll get more time in the middle.
                As for McVeigh, the whole Swans team was shutdown in the second half ( not one player tonned up). He is a gun and his style of possession footy definitely wasn't suited by the saturated conditions after the downpour.
                Hanley was disappointing, but so were Hibberd and Heath Shaw from an SC scoring perspective.
                In any event, McVeigh and Hanley are locks and should be treated as such wrt trading.
                Hold!

                • throttlefinger says:

                  Bottom line, split first rounds is like shart at the bar before you finish your first drink.

                  Silly to think, but I'm bitching about Ryder's 96. If it weren't for the split round, probably wouldn't have picked him up. Gut telling me to move to Mummy. One more week be so bad? Steel yourself, Throttle. Ride R2 out before you make changes…

                  • throttlefinger says:

                    And yes I do talk to myself often about these matters…and will be seeking help after season is over.

                  • Sarah says:

                    I'm wondering the same thing about Ryder and Mummy. Do it now or wait? To be or not to be????
                    Ryder v McEvoy this week
                    Mummy v Hickey… hmmm

                    • throttlefinger says:

                      That is the question!

                      At this point I'm treating it as an exercise in patience, Sarah. Stick with your team. Only fix the holes. Can get Mummy next week if all goes to the dumper R2.

                      But yeah, I like Mummy versus Hickey this week. Then takes on Dees shadow ruck squad.

                      Ugggggggggh!!!!

                    • Sarah says:

                      Yeah, I think I'll keep Ryder for the time being. Bombers did have the game in the bag all night.

                      Keep having this nagging feeling though that I need to get rid of Hanley. Watched the game last weekend and yes it was against the hawks, but thought he looked disinterested and like he was coasting. Not impressed at all. Had him last year and while he was up and down a little bit thought he'd be better this year. Kinda got talked into him almost by Jock's right up.

                      I know everyone is saying no sideways trades after 1 game etc etc. But I have a strong gut feeling that I'd rather go into round 2 with either Ward or Treloar than Hanley. Not sure which way I'll go yet, but at least the giants players will be trying their asses off if I do go that way.

                      So much conflicting advice. You have some people saying 'don't trade after round 1' then you have other people saying to 'trade your ass off'!!! Still not sure which way I'll go.

                    • Sarah says:

                      *write up… not right up!!!

                    • Derek says:

                      I Panicked and somehow ended up with Guthrie as my D2. I have Serious issues down back.

                    • Sarah says:

                      That sure is serious Derek!!

                    • Derek says:

                      If I listen to Higgo long enough, I might even have Watts in my defence be the end of the week….now that would be serious then.

                    • Sarah says:

                      My advice… stop listening to Higgo.

                    • throttlefinger says:

                      Yeah, I agree about that last part, Sarah. Even in the podcast. Prudence would say don't trade unless you have to (i.e. don't judge based on 1 game) BUT do the trade if your gut says make the move.

                      That's what's dancing in my head, too. Fact of the matter is, you'll be lauded if you make a sideways that works long term and thrown under the bus as a "spud" if it doesn't. At the end of the day, you got to be good with the trade and the consequences.

                      Think Hanley just had a bad game. Too good. Know what you're saying but there was a rash of that going around (McV, Mitchell, etc). Think this week Swallow will go sub 100 and those mentioned will go 110+.

                    • Sarah says:

                      Just when I think I've made a decision someone (You!!) will say something to make me reconsider!! Might just leave the trades til after round 2. Will have a better idea of players form by then anyway.

                      Thanks Throttle. I certainly hope you're right about the 110+… that would be awesome!!

                    • Big Janks says:

                      Just remember all the folks jumping on Hamish and Birchall after their fast starts last year. Just be patient. You drafted your guns for a reason. They will even out when it's all said and done!

                    • throttlefinger says:

                      Exactly, Big J. Just hold tight. Too good of players who have proven themselves.

                    • Sarah says:

                      You're right Big Janks. I don't have injuries. I have the right rookies (except for Taylor). I don't have a reason to do a trade and won't be. Bring on round 2!!!

  22. canman1306 says:

    Ryder -> Mumford
    Main Reason is Ryder Played a 1 armed Man And Kicked a goal And still only Managed to score 95.

    Thoughts?

    • throttlefinger says:

      Ha, in the same camp, Canman. Feel the exact same way.

      My feeling is you give Paddy another week. Values won't change. Versus Hawks he may go off (especially since McE is not the best at hitouts). And Mummy may lay a sub 100 score.

      But understand if you do want to slot him in. I'll be fighting the urge the whole week.

      • canman1306 says:

        Yes same but I think I will keep strong for another week without trades as you never know what I going to happen.
        You picked your players for a reason and if you trade them now they haven't had a chance to show what they can do. Especially if they had a bad week like Mitchell.

        • throttlefinger says:

          Very true. Only concern I have is whether Webster will be a late out. Like Jock said, had really good form before begin subbed out. Need to plan around that this week. Hope that will distract me enough to not worry about Ryder anymore.

          • Jim from Gippsland says:

            webster is just about the toughest call this week.. hang tough I think.even if he goes a week out, you can cover yes?

            If this was round 6 or 7 you wouldn't question yourself.

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      even though I am stuck with him……no to Ryder. ….,#ratherhavehickey

      Though saying that……….,DONT TRADE…….

      • throttlefinger says:

        yeah, giving him another week. Knee-jerk is to cut bait now. But he has the ability to do better. And against stiffer team, he may.

        • Jim from Gippsland says:

          #feel my pain on keeping Ryder.

          Throttle my friend..,but you are suffering too…..you know what…we don't panic mate do we?

          It will come good..

          • throttlefinger says:

            Got a good score (2328) but always see the places where it could've been higher. Can lead to a rash decision. Fighting the urge shouldn't be that hard. Paddy could surprise me.

            And as you say, faith in your plan and all will go well in time. No panic.

    • WombatsFC says:

      I love Paddy and I reckon he is still as far from his full potential as Jack Watts is. After the number of years that he's played I doubt that he is capable of remaining interested consistently enough to warrant an R1 or R2 position.
      Mumford

    • Pieman1978 says:

      I had Ryder last year. Never ever ever ever again! He was gone by round 2. Rubbish! You must get rid of him

  23. canman1306 says:

    Yeah luckily for me I downgraded Webster -> Langford Few minutes before the Hawthorn game.

    • throttlefinger says:

      Yep. Very lucky for you, Canman.

    • THE SALTSHAKER says:

      I did a last minute change 10 mins before game but went the other way and did georgiou to mcdonald, really want that $80k back now but not gonna burn a trade on it. More worried about my F6 Rohan than anything

      • Jim from Gippsland says:

        The McDonald advantage will come…..he will find his feet….don't panic

      • canman1306 says:

        Hoping Rohan can pull out some decent scores and gain cash Quickly.
        Have to remember that Sydney did play in the wet and they had an off day.

  24. cyril is the man says:

    I don't think Ryder will ever reach his full potential, same as watts.

  25. Pete says:

    Quick inside info!!!!!
    Chapman will be not at the G this weekend. He will miss 2-3 weeks. Solid inside source who works in their fitness department. That hammy has been tweaked again.
    So dont trade him in guys!

    • mightymicks says:

      I also heard about that, fought it was arumor but if you know as well must be true.

    • WombatsFC says:

      Yep I saw him grab it and walk down the race and was very suprised that he came back out. It's a shame but I expected it.

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      100% sure on this? Haven't seen supporting evidince.
      Though if true thatt leaves no doubts……….

      • crabb says:

        Essendon doctor said earlier today that he was definitely playing this week…

        • mightymicks says:

          Will Essendon, want to risk him? If not he will not play, if you have him just be careful, in case he is a late out or doesn't get named.

          • Derek says:

            I just wanted 5 or 6 games out of him, get a nice price rise and trade him out. 1 week…!!!!

            • favalinko says:

              Todays paper said he pulled up better than ever and he wants to play in the midfield. My guess is that he plays

  26. WombatsFC says:

    POLEC

    Hmm I have him, I played him round 1 but should I bench him against the Blues?

    I know that Malthouse has managed to turn a very young team with 2 consecutive finals appearances into a shabby bunch of no-hopers interspersed with a few "Should be Champions" and I'm sure that this is all part of MaGuires grand plan so you'd expect Polec to have a field day and knock out another 100+ but.

    Simmo looks like Ned Kelly and he is equally as hard as Ned's Armour, he is the closest thing to a skinny wombat that has ever graced the MCG. If Kade plays on Jarrod I know who'll be Poleaxed.

    But Mick is either stupid, suffering from dementia or following Eddies instructions so we can be assured that Simmo isn't going to be allowed anywhere near Polec on thursday night. Or can we?

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      hmm… maybe missing your point mate but all those you have mentioned deserve at least a second look..

      Certainty don't touch polec.

      Maybe explain further?

    • Bender says:

      I think you have your rounds mixed up Wombats. Port have already played Carlton in round 1 and now face Adelaide in the Showdown in round 2.

    • Pieman1978 says:

      What have you been smoking Wombats. Your comment makes no sence at all

      • Ronny says:

        Too much weed Wombats. Incomprehensible ranting = classic symptom of being greened out mate. Seek immediate help. Step away with your hands well clear of the bong. REPEAT. Step away with your hands well clear of the bong.

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      Wombats, are you really the Honey Badger of Super Rugby fame?

  27. zimmerbd says:

    Sounds like a lot of panic trading going on. Interesting.

  28. WombatsFC says:

    This is 100% off subject and I apologise for hijacking this forum for a moment.
    My enormous, yet placid, Hairy Nosed Cousin from the North (The Northern Hairy Nose Wombat) has been placed on the official list of animals that Australia will allow to become extinct in the near future!
    Firstly, I’m absolutely disgusted that such a list exists and that an elected politician requested that it be created. This strengthens my resolve that our head of state must be born in our country, because these pommy economic refugees are rubbish at looking after it.
    Secondly, if they must have such a disgusting list how can they justify putting the big fella’s on it? For the sake of 1,000 cows and a couple of hundred grand we could fence their entire range and repair their ecosystem.

    I am ashamed of my government.

    • Jim from Gippsland says:

      What's the back story mate…..furry friends are moreimportantant than fantasy…..

      • WombatsFC says:

        No back story Jim just a continuation of the colonialism. ABC News 24 aired the story on Monday and identified a few of the "more than a thousand" species that it is not economically viable to support anymore. Most of the small marsupials are on the list but the Tassy Devil was given a reprieve due to its importance to Tourism. The list (which I'm yet to see was compiled by government scientists and also includes birds, reptiles, fish plants and insects.
        Luckily for us we still have cane toads, rabbits, foxes, and feral cats, pigs, goats, camels, cows and sheep; otherwise this great land would be bereft of wildlife altogether.

    • Sarah says:

      Agree Wombats. If that's true it's disgusting and a crime against nature. We don't have the right to cause another species extinction.

    • Grufflez says:

      Nature has already entered the next mass extinction, Human over population, loss of natural habitat,Depletion of Resources & Pollution are all key factors…Was always going to be the inevitable result when you take take take from a planet and give nothing back.
      To be frank, it amazes me how many people simply do not comprehend this, we all share responsibility in this ecological tragedy.
      Hey! but don't take my word for it, do your own research…Facts and figures are there to be found if you care to look, It may surprise some of you just how many species have gone extinct world wide in the last hundred years and how many more of these plants & animals that are on the critically endangered/endangered species list be will gone in the very near future.
      Australia actually has an appalling record in species conservation….in the Scheme of things highly doubt one ''Pommy'' makes much difference at all.

      Some are ignorant
      Some do not know what ignorant means
      Some do not care
      some care but sit ideally by
      Some do what they can to clear the conscience
      And those who are truly dedicated and unselfish may one day die knowing they were a ''Good Human Being''

  29. Jim from Gippsland says:

    Garlett quits. Fair to say…draw a line through him

    • WombatsFC says:

      It's a genuine shame but a lot of exceptionally talented Australian kids are unable to reach their full potential due to issues that are swept under the carpet by society or inadequately managed by government. This problem is equally prevalent in low income non-indigenous society as it is in indigenous society.

  30. Tommy says:

    Mumford vs big boy mcevoy what are people’s thoughts? Big boy could be a consistent choice but if Mumford can play like he did on the weekend he is unstoppable

  31. danger says:

    Mick is truly mad recommending Mumford. Sure he can smash out monster scores, but we're talking about a bloke who has NEVER stayed on the park for an entire season. Now you want to line him up alongside Sandi who hasn't played a full season for 6 years ago? Topping this madness off, we have no rookie bench cover in the ruck department either. So unless North have to rest Goldy or at least give him some help with Currie, this represents far too much danger.

    • Derek says:

      I think Mumford had a good game against his old team. He admitted that he was able to read their ball up calls and anticipate what they were going to do. One off!!

  32. Antonio says:

    I’m also sitting on Ryder, thought with TBell out he’d go alright as he generally loves being sole ruck (JD doesn’t count) he would have scored higher, in 120 range but gave away 50m and 2 other frees. also relaxes when jobs done. bombers have tough month ahead (hawks, blues, Freo, Collingwood) might bring out some effort and scores from him!

    holding rocky as cant see him tagging often, and seriously thinking about daisy to Tyson (dunstan, polec, aish And ellis already in mids …

  33. Big Janks says:

    Great article Mick! Also- thanks for replying to my tweet question about what I should do in regards to Nic Nat. It's tough to make game time decisions out in the States given the massive time difference for night games.

    I wish this GWS / GCS breakdown was written BEFORE the season started. Great insight and I really didn't put too much thought in to the 3rd year jump for players (a la the increases by Prestia, Dixon and McKenzie). That being said- there was no way I was going to take the risk of selecting anyone from GWS based on last years performance. Still won't make the jump after rd 1.

    In regards to Daisy- I'm with the majority of the community on this one. Even with the 62 pts in rd 1, let's not forget that Rd1 scores only count for the first price change. All it takes is a few scores in the 90+ range and he should be ripe for trading (along with an Ellis/Polec or whomever) for a Rd9 upgrade to Ablett or Pendles and a downgrade to another rookie. I too went with the non Ablett/Pendles approach and am banking on a Daisy price increase to help me land one of those come Rd 9.

    Stick with your pre season strategy and don't rush to judge after one round!

    • throttlefinger says:

      Tell me about it, Big Janks.

      Not looking forward to waking up at 4:15am to see selections and figuring out replacement for McDonough. Ugh.

    • Great Stuff Big Janks,

      I will be given Dasiy another week, and Ryder for that matter. Rockliff suspension has given me another problem. I will be keeping him but need to bring in another midfield rookie with more scoring potential.

      Love your feedback and insight – very refreshing

  34. Snake says:

    Great Article Mick! its nice to have some substance and theory to what were all thinking after roundd 1.

    Yes its only round 2 but that doesn't stop the incurable itch of wanting to finesse my team early on in the season. Thinking of a side trade. hear me out…
    Swanny to Jobe.
    With Beams and Dingle-berry potentially dominating for the pies, I'm thinking Swanny may not reach the 120-130 avg he had last year.
    With Watson being a clear dominance at bombers and now potentially Chappy running into some hammy tightness.

    i'll also free up 31k large

    Is this still a wasted trade?… thoughts community?

    • This is a tough one.

      I'm never a hugh fan of sideways trades but ever trade should be analysed in its own way. Lets first look at as an "Internal Trade" and not an "External"

      Question 1: Has anything changed from when you picked Swan?
      For me the answer is no. (Well at least based on one game). Swan, Pendles and Beams all played in the same team in 2012 and all averaged 120+. Swan has quite games. Look at his scoring from last year. Its up and down but he still averaged 118.
      If you picked him from the start you have got to back him in. I still think he will average 115 for the year. Jobe will do the same and so for me this is a wasted trade.

      Hope this helps

  35. Derek says:

    Jobe is playing Hawks this week. they won't let him run free like he did last week.

  36. dylan cox says:

    what happened to get him in and get him out

  37. Jack says:

    How is langdons job security? Should I trade him in for clurey or not
    Thanks

  38. Kev says:

    Hey community, thinking of a double trade here to fix up my structure.
    Rockliff – Dom Tyson. Leaves me playing two rookies on the field (Polec, Dunstan, X. Ellis, Tyson)
    McDonough – LeCras. Leaves me playing one fwd rookie on the field (JKH, Taylor, Z. Merrett)

    Thoughts on this?

    • Super_Freak says:

      Bit confused, does that mean, you will have ellis and one of Polec, Dunstan or Tyson on the bench.

      • Kev says:

        Sorry for the confusion, SF. I meant that M7 and M8 would be two of Polec, Dunstan, Ellis or Tyson, and F6 would be one of JKH, Taylor, or Merrett.

        With higher scoring mid rookies I feel this is a better structure than having rookies at F5 and F6

    • GarglesnarfFC says:

      Keep McDonough IF selected and shoot one of Taylor or Jkh who won't earn anything at all.

  39. Buddyisdead2me says:

    Hi Jock/Community
    Currently looking at my F7 to replace McDonough.
    Now showing interest in Sam Frost from GWS – round 1 score of 70pts.
    Great article on the GWS can anyone shed some intel on Frost??
    Cheers

  40. Nick rich says:

    Got mummy and greene very happy at the moment. What are your thoughts on Rohan out for Lachlan Hunter Mick?!

  41. Tom McVilly says:

    thoughts on luke dalhaus and lachie hunter from western bulldogs

    • Like both of them as they are both value at their current price. However neither will be a keeper so if you haven't picked them pre round 1 i wouldn't be looking to trade either in.

  42. Pete says:

    What do we all think of Matt Thomas? 250k… they call him a bull at tigerland but who goes out when Jackson comes back in? Want to take the risk on him for JMartin but not sure.
    Thoughts?

  43. Jett says:

    Hi, Having a dilemma up forward and wondering what the best fwd rookies would be to bring in? I currently have impey, Kennedy Harris and Rohan. Mainly looking for a Kennedy Harris replacement. Any ideas?
    Thanks, Jett

    • Kev says:

      Z. Merrett is an option. Copped the subs vest last week but picked up 11 possessions in a bit over a quarter. JS might be a bit of a worry though

  44. GarglesnarfFC says:

    There isn’t one. Forward rookies all look the same at the momemnt. Poor job security and not many points. Rohan is the only keeper at this stage, which tells you how poor the rest are! :)

    Ambrose is at $102k is the perhaps the best option ATM (mainly on price), but only if one of your starters does not get picked this week. In my opinion, waiting another week to see who stands up as the premier rookie is a wise move.

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