West Coast Eagles 2014: Supercoach scouting report

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach 2014, West Coast Eagles by on March 6, 2014 • views: 19220

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Howdy folks, we’re almost ready for the real AFL season to begin!

Today we’re taking a look at the West Coast Eagles. A very interesting side for us in Supercoach, they’ve got some underpriced talent after their disappointing 2013 campaign, it might have been bad news for you last year when their players underperformed, but it’s a new year and we’ve got some good players to sort through in the bargain bin this year because of it. So let’s get cracking on this Supercoach Scouting Report!

West Coast Eagles 2014 Scouting Report

2013 Record: 9 wins, 13 losses
Position: 13th

INS:

Xavier Ellis (Free Agent from Hawthorn)
Elliot Yeo (Traded from Brisbane)
Jamie Bennell (Promoted Rookie)
Jeremy McGovern (Promoted Rookie)
Simon Tunbridge (Promoted Rookie)
Dominic Sheed (Pick #11, National Draft)
Malcolm Karnapy (Pick #31, National Draft)
Tom Barrass (Pick #43, National Draft)
Dylan Main (Pick #49, National Draft)
Will Maginness (Pick #5, Rookie Draft)
Rowen Powell (Pick #22, Rookie Draft)
Murray Newman (Pick #38, Rookie Draft)

OUTS:

Bradd Dalziell (Delisted)
Cale Morton (Delisted)
Brad Dick (Retired)
Andrew Embley (Retired)
Ashton Hams (Retired)
Daniel Kerr (Retired)
Mark Nicoski (Retired)
Adam Selwood (Retired)

2014 Team Preview

2014 Bye Round: 9
Final 4: Collingwood Magpies, Essendon Bombers, Melbourne Demons, Gold Coast Suns

It was a down year for the Eagles, falling from 15 wins and 5th on the ladder, to 9 wins and 13th on the ladder. At one point in early 2013 they were considered serious contenders for the flag, but as we’ve seen happen more than once in the past, that means little when injuries to important players from their 2012 campaign like Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Beau Waters, Shannon Hurn, Daniel Kerr and Matt Rosa hit and poor form struck a number of others. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for the Eagles however as they did have a few positives emerge from the season. Firstly was Josh Kennedy, who could only manage 9 games and 18 goals for 2012 returning to play 21 of 22 games and kicking 60.23 for the year to come 4th in the Coleman Medal count. Combine that with 42 goals from Jack Darling, 30 from Mark LeCras (who only played 15 games) and 28 from Josh Hill and they’ve got a very potent forward line for this season. Secondly was the continued emergence of Chris Masten, who once again had a career year, building off his fantastic 2012 season. The former #3 pick had looked like he may not have panned out after his 3rd year in the AFL saw him with averages of 14 possessions , 2 marks and 3 tackles, but in 2013 he showed why the Eagles invested so heavily in him.

It was an interesting off-season for the Eagles, with them having a large number of retirements, most notably the retirements of Adam Selwood, Daniel Kerr and Andrew Embley, 3 players who were all a part of the Eagles 2006 Premiership team, along with Mark Nicoski (who was with the Eagles but not selected for the 2006 GF match) and Ashton Hams, as well as both Bradd Dalziell and Cale Morton being delisted. They’ll also have a new coach, with 2006 Premiership Coach John Worsfold stepping down. Their new coach is Adam Simpson, the All-Australian, Premiership winning, 300 gamer, former Captain for North Melbourne and former Hawthorn Hawks assistant coach. The Eagles have done a good job of brining some talent back into the fold however, with the drafting of talented local Dom Sheed, with West Coast pulling off a shrewd trade move, trading their original pick, #6, to Collingwood for picks #11 and #31, allowing them to still draft their target Dom Sheed, as well as giving them an extra 2nd round pick so they could forward pick #28 to the Lions for Elliot Yeo. They’ve brought in the oft-injured former Hawk Xavier Ellis in as a free agent, who has only played 16 games in 3 years, but who will be a fantastic addition if he can stay healthy.

The fixture is a bit more friendlier to the Eagles this year, only having to play the Top 6 sides 6 times, while also having 8 games against the bottom 8. The biggest issue they may have is the travel, with 2 trips to Queensland on their itinerary, one in Rd 17 against the Lions and the second one coming in Rd 23 against the Gold Coast. They also have an away game to Tasmania as well. Double up games is tough to measure at this stage with the Eagles playing Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle and St. Kilda twice. Gold Coast will be no easy beats this year and Melbourne will be looking to improve greatly under Paul Roos, so that could potentially leave them with only St. Kilda as wins.

Final 4 games is another tough run also, with games against Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne and Gold Coast. As we said before it’s tough to measure Melbourne at this stage but the games against Collingwood, Essendon and Gold Coast could be very competitive, which also means there’s a chance for some good scores also. I’m finding it kinda tough to place the Eagles at the moment, they’re talented, but they’ve also got some injury concerns still, plus a new coach. I think they’ve got the talent to make the top 8, but whether that actually happens is another thing entirely, and with the amount of teams that are looking to break through this year, they may find themselves just short of the mark again in 2014.

2014 Projected Wins/Losses: 11 wins, 11 losses

LOCKS

Luke Shuey

2012 SC Average: 103.4
2013 SC Average: 90.7
Position: MID
Starting Price: 489.3K

Like Gaff, Shuey also had his tagging issues at times last year, examples being Crowley toweling him up in Rd 1 (but Crowley does that to nearly everyone, so no shame in that Luke!) and restricting him to a score of 56, Andrew Raines keeping him to 65 points in the Rd 7 game against Brisbane and Clinton Jones holding Shuey to 70 points in the Eagles Rd 11 clash with the Sainters. He also had a few injury issues, hurting his hamstring in Rd 13 and then only playing Rd 17 and 23, both games in which he was subbed off. Those two games put a decent dent in his Supercoach average, removing those two games from the equation puts his average up from 90.7 to 98.1.

For the year Shuey had averages of 21.5 possessions, 3.4 marks, 3.9 Inside 50’s, 4.4 clearances and 4.8 tackles. The biggest issue many might have with Shuey is his Round 9 bye, which matches up with other midpriced options such as Carlton (Murphy and Thomas), Hawthorn (Shiels) and GWS (Shiels, Greene, Whitfield). Still, Shuey should be healthy and ready to roll in 2014, his first NAB Challenge game netted a Supercoach score of 125, which shows the potential he has for this season. If you need a sub 500K midfielder in your side, then I don’t think you can go wrong with Shuey.

2014 SC Projection: 103-109

SERIOUSLY CONSIDER

Nic Naitanui

2012 SC Average: 114.2
2013 SC Average: 96.2
Position: RUCK
Starting Price: 518.8K

Nic Nat is a tough one to lock down at the moment, but if he’s fit for Rd 1, then there’s no doubt that he should be in your side. The biggest issue currently surrounding him is his on-going groin injury that dogged him last year and restricted him to only 11 games. The current plan is for him to be right to play in one of the Eagles pre-seasons games, if he gets through that and doesn’t suffer any setbacks then the Eagles will roll him out in Rd 1. One thing is for sure, they won’t be taking any risks with him, so his position here is based on his status in the medical room.

Anyway, as we said earlier, Naitanui could only manage the 11 games last year as he dealt with osteitis pubis. For the year he averaged 11.5 possessions, 2.3 marks, 25.4 hitouts, 3.3 clearances and kicked 8.3. Even when NN was playing, he wasn’t on the field as much as 2012, with his minutes falling from 101 per game to a career low 87, while averaging the 2nd lowest per minute stint on the ground for the Eagles, with Naitanui tending to go to the bench, rather than rotating forward like in 2012. This meant he went from winning 27% of his possessions in the forward zone in 2012 to only winning 13% in 2013, while his goal average went down from 1.1 per game in 2012 to 0.7 in 2013. The good news is even with reduced game time his stats in other areas of the ground stayed static, or even improved.

Nic Nat started the 2013 season priced at $611,000, so we’ll be getting him at almost a 100K discount on last year. That’s what makes his status for Round 1 so annoying, we’ll need to have him in our initial side to get our moneys worth, but we obviously don’t want to have a non-playing premium in our side if we can avoid it, even for just one round. If he’s healthy, then we’ve seen in 2012 the types of scores he can put up. There is always the worry that the Eagles will manage his gametime as they have plenty of tall depth with Cox, Lycett and Sinclair all available, so we must consider that as well.

2014 SC Projection: 104-110

Dean Cox

2012 SC Average: 112.3
2013 SC Average: 107.3
Position: RUCK
Starting Price: 578.9K

The Eagles had to rely upon Cox more than ever last year due to the injury issues with Naitanui, with Cox recording his 2nd highest hitout average, while also recording his 2nd highest hitout to advantage rate of his career as well. He ended the year as the 3rd best Ruckman for 2013, with averages of 15.9 possessions, 5.4 marks, 27.1 hitouts, 3.2 clearances and kicked 13.18, while ranking 5th in Total Hitouts, 10th in Hitouts per game and 17th in Supercoach points per game.

Due to the absence of Naitanui, he spent less time forward than in previous years, with his goal tally in 2012 being 28.14. He didn’t ruck solo while Naitanui was out though, with Callum Sinclair playing Rounds 2-6 and Scott Lycett playing in two stints while Nic Nat was out, first in Rd 1 and then his second stint coming once Natanui was mothballed in Rd 18-23. Cox is an ironman too, having not missed a game since the 2009 season, he’s the only ruckman to have done this and has played 4 more games than the next best ruckman in that 4 year period. Cox is 32 heading into the 2014, and we’ve been seeing a slow decline in his scores since his high of 122 in the 2011 season, so I’m sure there will be plenty who will be hesitant to pick him in their initial sides, which is understandable. Still, I don’t think he’ll be a has-been going into 2014 and should still put up triple digit scores. At worst you can pick someone else cheaper in the rucks and still consider Cox as an upgrade target later in the year.
2014 SC Projection: 102-108

Jack Darling

2012 SC Average: 75.9
2013 SC Average: 76.6
Position: FWD
Starting Price: 413.3K

Jack Darling had a terrific year as a forward, especially when you consider the fact that he only kicked 9 fewer goals for the year while having Josh Kennedy (9 games and 18 goals in 2012) and Mark LeCras (0 games in 2012) return to share the forward line with him in 2013. For the year he had averages of 11.8 possessions, 4.6 marks, 2.1 Inside 50’s, 2.8 tackles and kicked 42.27.

Darling actually recorded more possessions inside 50 than Josh Kennedy while recording 18 more one-on-one contests then him also. His win percentage in those contests was 28%, which was slightly below Kennedy who won 30% of his one-on-one contests. Probably the biggest thing we learnt from the Eagles first NAB Challenge game was Darling spending some time in the midfield. For all the talk of Stewart Crameri being the forward who’d get midfield time, it appears as if it may be Darling instead. He attended 13 bounces and recorded 4 possessions, 2 tackles and had 2 clearances. Darling isn’t actually a bad size for a midfielder , matching up with Fremantle mids such as David Mundy and Nat Fyfe in height and weight. We obviously can’t expect full-time midfield numbers from him, but if it’s enough to boost his possession numbers into the 15-16 range, it should be a nice boost to his scores.

There’s still the obvious element of risk with picking Darling and it wouldn’t be the first time a coach has talked and tried a player out in the midfield during the unimportant games only to play him back in his original position once the real stuff happens, but he’s one worth to consider, especially if you find yourself slightly short from buying those 450K+ guys.

2014 SC Projection: 80-86

Xavier Ellis

2012 SC Average: 59.0
2013 SC Average: 21.5
Position: MID
Starting Price: 159.1K

There’s basically only one thing holding Ellis back from being a lock pick in Supercoach, and that is his health. Outside of 2008 and 2010 when he played 23 games each year, he’s never managed more than 13 games in a single season and has only played 16 games over the past 3 years. He only played 2 games last year, the first in Rd 13 where he was subbed on and the second in Rd 14 where he was subbed out due to injury and didn’t play again in the AFL for 2013.

Ellis’s last full year was in 2010, where he had averages of 17.4 possessions, 4.6 marks, 2.4 Inside 50’s, 2 clearances and 3.9 tackles. Normally we may not consider someone like Ellis, but he’s actually going into 2014 cheaper than some rookies that we can select. We know that if Ellis can get out on the park he can produce, so we’ve only got his health issues to worry about. We’ve already seen him in the first Eagles NAB Challenge game against the Dockers where he had 21 possessions and 4 marks and was subbed off in the 3rd quarter on 89 Supercoach points.

There’s the obvious risk with Ellis, but he also has the upside of being a senior player for a rookie player price, so you don’t (or shouldn’t) have to worry about the consistency issues that plague the young kids at times. Pick him in your initial side, hope you can get 7-8 games in a row out of him and then trade him out.

2014 SC Projection: 70-76

Andrew Gaff

2012 SC Average: 90.4
2013 SC Average: 71.1
Position: MID
Starting Price: 383.5K

Gaff was a prime example of what can happen when opposition sides target a young, emerging midfielder. Gaff was hounded by taggers all year, with players such as Liam Shiels, Ed Curnrow, Nic Kommer, Nathan Van Berlo and Brent Macaffer all taking turns at shutting him down during the year. He only had 20 or more possessions in 11 games, something he achieved in 18 of his games in 2012. He did show he still had the ability to score in the triple digits when teams let him run free, but that was something he was only about to achieve 3 times.

For the season he had averages of 19.9 possessions, 3.5 marks, 1.5 clearances, 3.6 Inside 50’s and 1.8 tackles, down from the 24.6 possessions, 4.8 marks, 1.7 clearances, 4.4 Inside 50’s and 1.4 tackles in 2012. So that leaves us in an interesting quandary with Gaff in 2014. He’s in a very nice mid-price position now for us, but there’s a reason for that, because teams are making a point to shut him down. If that continues into this season he’ll essentially be useless for us for fantasy purposes as he’s shown he’ll barely score above what the good rookies will score, but on the flipside, if he’s let free he’s shown he can be a triple digit scorer as well.

At this stage I’ll be skipping Gaff as we’ve got a few other mid priced options to pick from, ones that we won’t have to worry about potentially having taggers come for him. Still, if you’ve got the guts, you may decide to pick him and hope the taggers move their attentions over to Shuey or someone else like that.

2014 SC Projection: 88-94

Shannon Hurn

2012 SC Average: 91.4
2013 SC Average: 87.5
Position: DEF
Starting Price: 472K

Hurn was another Eagle who had injury issues last year, limiting him to 12 games last after playing every game in 3 of the previous 4 seasons. His booming right kick is a big asset to the Eagles, so his loss was a big one for the West Coast defense. For the year he had averages of 15.6 possessions, 3.9 marks, 2.1 of which were intercept marks, 4.1 rebound 50’s, 2.1 spoils and 2.2 tackles.

Hurn does like to use that right foot too, with a kick to handball ratio of 5.9, and a terrific kicking efficiency of 77.5%. His kick rating was the 3rd highest in the AFL of any player who played at least six games in 2013 and also had the highest kick to handball ratio of any player ranked as a “general defender” by Champion Data. His one-on-one defense was also quality, defending 20 one-on-ones and only losing 2 of them, the highest winning percentage of any defender to defend at least 20 of these contests.

He does have limited upside, he’s firmly placed in that 86-92 point range at this stage. There has been talk of the Eagles moving him further up the ground at times, to the wing, or into the half forward area where he can bomb the ball to the Eagles talls. That sounds good in theory, but the Eagles will probably lose their best avenue out of defense with Hurn not back there, so I can’t see them giving him a great deal of time where he’s not across half back. Still, even if he gets a little bit of time it may be enough for boost his scores into the high 90’s. Consider Hurn for sure, but I don’t think you should be picking him based on the promises of more time on-ball, but maybe the addition of Elliot Yeo will allow Hurn to move further down the ground. He’s an intriguing choice either way.

2014 SC Projection: 88-94

Josh Kennedy

2012 SC Average: 56.0
2013 SC Average: 90.0
Position: FWD
Starting Price: 485.2K

Josh J Kennedy was probably the best forward line pick you could have made last year, starting the 2013 season at a rock bottom price of $299,600, and he certainly proved his worth, scoring tons in 4 of his first 5 matches last year. Overall for the year Kennedy averaged 13 possessions, 6.8 marks 1.6 of which were contested and 3 of which were Inside 50 marks, 2.9 Inside 50’s, 3.3 tackles, and kicked 60.23. For the year this ranked Kennedy 4th in Total Goals, 5th for Goals per game, 15th in Total Marks, 15th in Marks per game, 12th in Total Contested Marks, 19th in Contested Marks per game, 5th in Total Marks Inside 50 and 5th for Marks Inside 50 per game.

Normally we play the “stay away from KPF’s” game in Supercoach due to their inconsistent play at times, but for the majority of the year, this didn’t apply to Kennedy. Between Rd 1-19 he had only 1 game below 70, with 9 scores above 100. He was let down in the final month of the year with an average of 47.75, but the Eagles were pretty well cooked by that point and he wasn’t the only one who struggled. Up until Rd 20, his average sat at a very solid 99.8.

One of the reasons for Kennedy not having down games is because he doesn’t rely on just marks and goals for his scores, it’s also his forward 50 pressure that he does well, ranking as “elite” for a Key Forward by Champion Data, recording the 3rd most pressure acts of any key forward in the AFL. He’s also a terrific kick for goal, with a goal kicking accuracy of 72.3%, which was the 5th best accuracy in the AFL. Compare this to someone like Travis Cloke who had a goal kicking accuracy of 57.1% (49% from set-shots) and only 1.3 tackles per game.

Now the biggest issue for Kennedy is we now have to pay full price to get him into our squad. I know this will scare away most players, which is understandable, but if you are considering a sub 500K forward and don’t want to look at a Charlie Dixon or a Cloke, then Kennedy could be the answer to your problems.

2014 SC Projection: 90-96

Mark LeCras

2012 SC Average: 86.3
2013 SC Average: 83.7
Position: FWD
Starting Price: 451.3K

LeCras is a guy who can’t seem to catch a break from the injury bugs these past year years. He missed the 2012 season after a knee reconstruction, he could only manage 3 quarters of football in Round 1 before he suffered a broken arm after a bump from Tendai Mzungu. What is normally a 4-6 week injury didn’t stop LeCras though, he was amazingly back playing in Rd 3, looking like he hadn’t missed a beat.

For the 2013 season LeCras averaged 15.6 possessions, 5.3 marks, 2.9 of which were marks Inside 50, 3.3 Inside 50’s, 3.1 tackles and kicked 30.27. For the season that ranked him 12th in Total Marks Inside 50, 8th in Marks Inside 50 per game and 16th in Goals per game. His goal kicking accuracy was probably his biggest disappointment, falling to 52.6%, down from the high 60’s, low 70’s he was converting in 2009 and 2010. LeCras grabbed the 2nd most marks inside 50 at the Eagles, behind Josh Kennedy, he was also involved in 25% of all scoring chains in the games he played, which was ranked 2nd at the Eagles.

Like Kennedy, LeCras was also underpriced last year with a starting price of $369,200. There was great debate last year over which one of Kennedy/LeCras to start with, those who picked LeCras (like I did) have a perfect example of a “corrective trade” when the majority then swapped LeCras out for Kennedy.

LeCras is a consistent scorer, and like Kennedy probably falls into that “won’t be a premium, but will provide solid scores” type role. He’s been a consistent scorer over his career and his past 4 seasons he’s averaged in the 80’s, that is likely to continue into 2014.

2014 SC Projection: 84-90

Chris Masten

2012 SC Average: 89.5
2013 SC Average: 97.0
Position: MID
Starting Price: 523.2K

While other midfielders around him such as Shuey and Gaff struggled, Masten managed to continue his terrific 2012 form into 2013, improving his stats across the board and having a career year. For the season Masten averaged 26.3 possessions, 4.4 marks, 3.4 Inside 50’s, 3.4 clearances and 3.9 tackles. Masten was ranked as “elite” in disposals and uncontested possessions, as well as ranking as “above average” in clearances, metres gained and score involvements by Champion Data.

Masten is entering his 7th season and has only just started to look like becoming the player many expected him to be when he was drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2007 National Draft (the Eagles trading Chris Judd for Kennedy and the #3 and #20 picks). The question is, is it just a case of a player being a late bloomer? Or did Masten just pick up the slack left behind by Shuey and Gaff and will his scores go back down or stagnate if they start to produce again this season? At his price of 523K I don’t have him high on my radar as you could buy Murphy and Beams cheaper, but he, along with the other Eagles mids like Shuey, Gaff and Scott Selwood are likely POD candidates if you pick them. He looked solid in the Eagles first NAB Challenge hitout with a score of 106, so he looks like he should be an OK choice for 2014.

2014 SC Projection: 96-102

Elliot Yeo

2012 SC Average: 58.0
2013 SC Average: 61.9
Position: DEF
Starting Price: 333.9K

Yeo was traded to the Eagles from Brisbane for pick #28 in the National Draft his trade period, Yeo returning to his home state where he played his junior football for East Fremantle prior to being drafted by Brisbane. Yeo played 19 games for Brisbane last year, with averages of 14.5 possessions, 4.3 marks, 1.5 of which were intercept marks, 3.3 rebound 50’s, 2.1 spoils and 2.3 marks.

Yeo was 2nd at the Lions for intercept possessions, intercept marks and rebound 50’s at the Lions. He also had 30% of his rebound 50’s result in an inside 50, which was ranked 2nd in the AFL. Yeo is only entering his 3rd season, so he’s still got potential for improved scores. His starting price is slightly awkward, but hopefully he can improve again and bump up his scores once again.

2014 SC Projection: 70-76

Matt Priddis

2012 SC Average: 110.0
2013 SC Average: 101.0
Position: MID
Starting Price: 544.5K

Priddis seems like a guy I overlook every year, but for the past 3 seasons he’s a guy I skipped in my initial teams only to end up trading him in half way through the year. For the year he had averages of 26.9 possessions, 2.3 marks, 2.7 Inside 50’s, 7 clearances and 6.1 tackles. Overall that ranked him 4th in Total Handballs, 2nd in Handball per game, 8th in Total Contested Possessions, 4th in Contested Possessions per game, 3rd in Total Clearances, 3rd in Clearances per game, 15th in Possessions per game, 10th in Total Tackles and 11th in Tackles per game.

An amazing stat, since his first full season in 2007 there has been no player in the AFL who’s recorded more clearances or tackles and he sits only behind Gary Ablett in total contested possessions in that time. He’s a terrific in and under midfielder, his kick to handball ratio sitting at 0.6, this is probably the biggest thing that makes people overlook Priddis, as he only averages 9-10 kicks per game, often at a kicking efficiency in the mid 50% range, but he does enough around the ground for this not to have a huge negative impact on his Supercoach scores.

Priddis only had 1 sub 70 game in 2014, this was caused by a chicken wing tackle from Angus Monfries that KO’d him in the Eagles Round 5 game against Port Adelaide. Removing that game from his Supercoach resume has his average sitting at 105.75. I think Priddis will likely be overlooked again, but if you want a tackling, clearance, handballing machine, then Priddis is going to be your man.

2014 SC Projection: 106-112

Skip ‘Em

Scott Selwood

2012 SC Average: 104.0
2013 SC Average: 103.8
Position: MID
Starting Price: 559.8K

Selwood was a tackling machine last year, coming 2nd in the tackle count in the AFL, while also averaging the most physical pressure acts in the AFL. For the year Selwood had averages of 25.6 possessions, 4.6 marks, 3.5 Inside 50’s, 5.6 clearances and 7.6 tackles. These stats had him ranked 9th in Total Tackles, 2nd in Tackles per game, 13th in Clearances per game and 17th in Handballs per game.

The biggest worry for people thinking about Selwood was the news that he may go back into that defensive role he’s been used in previously, with Selwood stating

“I think it’s always a bit of a balance depending on who we’re playing but I probably presume that I’ll go back to a bit more of a defensive role,” Selwood said today.
“We’ve lost a couple of older guys in Andrew Embley and Daniel Kerr and we’ll start bringing in some new guys.
“I think it’s probably better that they can go out there and just play footy and then I’ll probably go back to playing more of a defensive role.”

We saw in 2011 that he still had elite tackling numbers at 8.1 per game, but his possession count sat at 18.7 per game and his Supercoach average was only 82. While I don’t think he’ll fall that far, there is a chance that his average may fall below the 100 mark, which is not something you’d want to see from a guy costing you 559K. For that price we want someone who has a chance to jump up to being Elite, for 13K more you can buy yourself a Trent Cotchin or Josh Kennedy. Sure, everyone else may have them, but there’s a reason for that. I won’t be looking in Selwood’s direction in 2014. Even if he doesn’t move back into that run-with role, he still doesn’t have enough upside for mine to be a good pick.

2014 SC Projection: 100-106

Beau Waters

2012 SC Average: 100.3
2013 SC Average: 82.9
Position: DEF
Starting Price: 402.2K

Waters could only manage 7 games last year suffering a variety of injuries, the biggest being a shoulder injury that required shoulder reconstruction surgery. In his 7 games he had averages of 20.4 possessions, 7.1 marks, 2 of which were intercept marks, 5.9 rebound 50’s, 3 spoils and 2.7 tackles.

Waters was looking like a potentially good starting pick down back, capable of scoring in the 90-100 range for the year, but he has suffered setbacks with his shoulder surgery in the off-season. First he needed the pins in his shoulder removed early due to them becoming infected, which meant his shoulder had not fully healed. Then a month later he suffered another shoulder dislocation, meaning he may require another shoulder reconstruction, something that would likely put him out for the entire year. The Eagles are trying to avoid that from occurring, but even if he does play, he’s still a very risky pick as the chance to re-injure his shoulder will likely loom over him the rest of his career. Even if he does play, I won’t be taking a chance on Waters in 2014.

2014 SC Projection: 88-94

Sharrod Wellingham

2012 SC Average: 81.5
2013 SC Average: 73.2
Position: MID
Starting Price: 394.8K

Wellingham had a disappointing first season at the Eagles, only managing 10 games for the year with averages of 19.1 possessions, 3.2 marks, 3 Inside 50’s, 3.2 clearances and 2.7 tackles. His stats were nearly equal to what he put up in the Collingwood midfield, but was allowed to run free a bit more, with his clearances going up, but this also had the downside of his tackles going down from 4.4 to 2.7.

Wellingham looked good in the first Eagles NAB Challenge game, kicking 3 goals, but for his price you’ve also got Andrew Gaff sitting there, a player who has much higher upside. In his previous 4 seasons, Wellingham only has 1 season above 80 (2012) and 3 seasons with averages in the 70’s. He may be able to increase his average in 2014, but I don’t see it going much over the mid 80 range, so that’s not the type of scores that will generate enough cash for us to consider him.

2014 SC Projection: 78-84

SMOKIES

Quick list of lower ranked players to keep your eyes on during pre-season

Scott Lycett – RUCK – 318.3K (Only if Nic Nat is out long-term again though)
Dom Sheed - MID – 167.3K
Jamie Bennell - MID – 123.9K

And that’s how the Barron see’s the Eagles chances in 2014. Any questions, or any players you’re thinking of picking? Leave a comment below, or let us know on the Twitter machine @BarronVonCrow

Well, we’ve finally reached the end of our Supercoach Scouting Reports for 2014, but don’t’ worry, I’ll still be around to help out the community during the season. Good luck to all in your Supercoach seasons, hope you all have a ripper of a year!

@BarronVonCrow

Barron Von Crow

 

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Comments (69)

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  1. Dee says:

    Nice… The last and final scouting report is done. So far only have X. Ellis in my team from WCE, but I'm seriously considering dog dog to replace W. Minson in the ruck to free up a little bit of cash. Would love to know how he goes tonight Barron! Thanks mate, cheers….

  2. Rod says:

    With news of Ryan Griffen carrying a back injury, do you think an Eagle mid will be the highest scorer with a RD 9 bye? I plan on going with 3 elite mids, spreading them out for the byes. I have Gaz for Rd 8, Jobe for Rd 10 but it's bloody difficult to see who will dominate from the Rd 9 teams. Some candidates are:

    -Griffen (limited pre-season)
    -Libba ( Like that time at King St, he may have peaked early last year)
    -Barlow (Something about Ross Lyon teams, makes me nervous)
    -M.Murphy ( Just don't trust him to be consistent)
    -Boak (Port may come back to reality this year)

    Thoughts community?

    • Jonathon says:

      Interesting strategy Rod, but you might be outsmarting yourself and just go for Pendles. Having said that if you're not keen on Griffen, I'd go either Libba or Barlow.

      • Dee says:

        Griffen mate, he should be fit and ready to go come Round 1. If still not sure, go LIBBA….

    • bloke says:

      Barlows round 10 mate

    • Shinboner says:

      Libba holds the M3 spot for me over Cotchin. As long as Griffen is on the pitch, he will never cop a tag and his tackling numbers are elite.

    • throttlefinger says:

      Great question, Rod. Griffen is probably, next to Selwood is probably the best upgrade option in the midfield. But I wouldn't start with him. Given the limited pre-season and niggles. Libba has certainly gotten the hype ("next Gazza?!?"). He had a great year last year but it wasn't groundbreaking enough to warrant that thinking. No at that price.

      My conservative side would say Smurf. His numbers will no doubt improve from last year and at that price even if he doesn't improve greatly, his price won't drop significantly (while Griff and the other $600K probably will). Thus, easy to upgrade to one of the others on the list.

      My plums pick would be Boak. Not many will have him and he's a baller. Barlow would probably be the safest bet yet doubt I'd make it. Had Mundy last year and he did me right.

      • taylorwoof says:

        I agree re Griffen. Had been in my side for awhile, but once he missed again in the last match…i had to remove him. I will be looking at getting him in during Round 10. Hopefully someone like a Dom Tyson has hit his ceiling by that time.

        • throttlefinger says:

          Here's a question I have you for Twoof. Why isn't there the same hesitation with Tyson about his price as there was with Martin?

          Tyson is only $6K less than Martin. Higgo's same metric of what he has to average to break $100K still applies. (95+ I believe it was). He was meh NAB 1 (36 points) and marvelous N2 (112 points). That's hardly blockbuster. In fact Viv scored better both games (86 and 89) and is cheaper.

          Is this only because Martin was seen as the second coming and the lock of the year? Help me out. Because right now I'm having a hard time with his price and need some reassurances that he's worth moving my structure around to accommodate.

          • PJ8 says:

            Agree Throttle, Everyone has been quick to jump off Martin due to his NAB performances and his price. But as you said Tyson basically the same price.

            But Tyson has performed better in NAB, you said he was MEH in NAB 1 but that was 40% game time. If he didn't get subbed out he was on par for 90-100 point game.

            Roo's game plan seems to suit the Dee's mids too.

            I have neither due to price but I would be picking Tyson over Martin no doubt.

            • throttlefinger says:

              Excellent points, PJ8.

              Isn't so much Tyson over Martin, more Tyson over Mitchie, Aish and Polec who are much cheaper (but no means cheap for a rook). That's the quandary. Go cheaper with Michie or cough up the dollars for Tyson. If it's a matter of 5-10 points, it's not worth the ducats.

              • PJ8 says:

                100% agree. As I said I have neither of the 2. Too expensive. I have Polec, Michie, Ellis.

                Your right in saying that the output won't be much different therefore go with the cheaper players.

              • Sarah says:

                You've also got to look at job security. Tyson is a former pick 3 and the dees gave up last years pick 2 to get him. I'd rather take a rookie priced player that's had a couple of years in the system and trained at the required level, than an expensive first year player. Dees new game plan of sharing the ball around will help their SC scores heaps too.

                • throttlefinger says:

                  Very true. And that's why Mitchie is looking more attractive option. Has some AFL experience and seems to fit Roos system well. Can't see Tyson doing that much better.

                  And even if he does, he would have to do a lot better to make his value appreciate faster than Mitchie. Has the potential but the likelihood, at least in the first 10 rounds is pretty slim, in my opinion.

                  • Sarah says:

                    If you're gonna pick only 1 then yeah Michie is the way to go. But I'm going with both. Think they'll both be ripe for trading by the round 9 or 10 bye for a juicy round 8 bye premium!!!

                    • throttlefinger says:

                      Would love to do both but would have to shift more things around than I like. Mitchie and Polec are going to have to do.

                    • taylorwoof says:

                      Loving this discussion!

                      Tyson > Martin for the reasons Sarah mentioned there. But, yes then you can make the same case for Michie. I'm just going with my eye. My opinion during NAB, Tyson looked much better than Michie. I was actually surprised Michie scored so well in NAB.

                      Currently i'm starting Tyson, Aish & Polec with Ellis & Dunstan on the bench.

                    • Super_Freak says:

                      I have Tyson, Polec & Ellis in mids. I'm taking the gamble and having these three onfield. With the lack of decent rookies in FWD & DEF, with the odd exception like McDonald, this allows extra cash to be injected into these lines. Hopefully it pays off!

                    • taylorwoof says:

                      Oh, and the other positive Tyson > Martin is Tyson has a Round 10 Bye, and Martin has that dreaded Round 8 Bye.

                    • Super_Freak says:

                      Hopefully they are prime trade bait by then!

  3. SamuelScoach says:

    ellis is lock

  4. SCaddict says:

    There's a lot of worthy Eagles to consider but struggling to fit in anyone other than X-man. Shuey, Hurn, Sheed, Selwood and Darling have all been in and out of my team but looks like I won't be able to squeeze them in.

    Perhaps a bit harsh to label Scooter a 'skip em' even with that quote. Had a tough year including injury, like many of his compadres, but still managed to pump out a solid tonne. Just about to turn 24 and with the favourable draw I expect him to have a great year.

    One of those players who may not have the super silky skills but even with his defensive or run with roles still manages excellent fantasy scores through contested possessions, clearances and tackles. Though unlikely to make the final cut in my team he could be a nice POD for some.

  5. rolling thunder says:

    ALERT ALERT ALERT ALERT ALERT

    Just to let people know to try and confidently set up your team BEFORE thursday round 1, and the make some minor changes and not leave it to the last minute.

    NRL Fantasy which started tonight across Australia started at 8.05pm and CRASHED at 2.30 in the afternoon. Noone has been able to log in and change their lineups etc etc and has totally F*CKED everyones planning and wasted many precious hours of studying!!!!!!!! And it is the same mob that will be running AFL Fantasy so be prepared.

    Also it is not possible to delete your team and start again with the same name and details….. I like supposedly hundreds of people couldnt change the players who were late outs and are not allowed to re register unless you use false details!!!!!!!

    WHAT A WASTE OF TIME AND SO BLOODY HEART BREAKING NOW MY TEAM IS DESTROYED FROM ROUND 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    HOPEFULLY this doesnt happen on the AFL sites- CAN YOU IMAGINE BEING LOCKED OUT ^ HOURS BEFORE KICK OFF AND NOT BEING ABLE TO FINALISE YOUR TEAM???????/ What a downer!

    • SCaddict says:

      Man that blows! I would be devastated too if they managed to foul up the AFL opener likewise.

      Hopefully they can sort out the issues with the extra week up their sleeve.

    • Mick says:

      My afl fantasy team will probably turn into a ghost ship anyway being accessable by app only!!! Trust in Virtual sports, they've been there and done it all before… Can't help but have a chuckle for the guys at fanhub!

    • Super_Freak says:

      Lucky it was only the NRL fantasy, shouldn't be too many upset people! Just jokin, but seriously can't get into that game.

  6. Danners16 says:

    Great stuff Baz, they have been all enjoyable reads, and good to look forward to each week. Made me think about some players a bit more.

  7. KadeK is a jet says:

    what are everyone's thoughts on Dom Sheed? When is there a cheat sheet? They are super helpful. Thanks for reading! Kade

  8. nacho says:

    im stuggling to fit in ellis. i got jack martin and dom sheed on ground and i got anthony morabito and dean towers on bench. sydney have said that we should expect to see a lot of towers but im not as to whether i keep him or put on ellis, keeping in mind i already have two pricey rookies in mid.

    • Kev says:

      I can see ellis averaging the same as Martin, if not more. You could save yourself some cash there. If not, morabito won't play early. Will be eased back through WAFL

  9. throttlefinger says:

    Stellar writeup, Barron. Like SCaddict, Eagles have come and gone out of my team. Especially Hurn. Yet his decent NAB play didn't inspire me enough to keep him. Darling, well, meh. Ellis I like for my mid bench. Wanted to slot Shuey in but rather spend the extra coin for JPK to go with Beams.

    Person who may sneak in is JJK. Champion Data has the Eagles having the easiest draw for forwards. And the boy can nail goals and works hard for it like Rooey.

    Like the Doggies, this team could be the Stop'n'Shop for corrective trades.

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes JJK bagged 5 last night as their winning pre-season form continued against a fairly strong Freo line-up.

      He's been a consideration too and was in my team very early but would mean I would have to drop either Buddy or Mitchell which I'm not sure that I can do. Hurn also played very well by all reports.

      Dom Sheed also bobbed up and was one of the Eagles best to make that decision between he and Ellis more interesting.

      I know a lot of these Eagles are going to have ripper seasons but geez it's hard to squeeze them in.

      • Sarah says:

        My suggestion would be to drop Buddy if you were going to fit JJK in. I have doubts on Buddy at Sydney.

        • throttlefinger says:

          Me too, Sarah. After Barron's writeup, I'm slotting JJK in. Very easy opening draw and he has looked strong in the games I've watched. Think Eagles pressing D will help his game out. Have a gut feeling but we'll see.

        • SCaddict says:

          Nah I can't do that Sarah. He's now my new POD now that everyone has jumped off him! :)

          However I've been undecided all season about whether to start with Danger or not so maybe he will be the fall guy for JJK. Get rids of another problematic Rd8 bye player too.

    • Super_Freak says:

      Yeah Hurn is my main concern ATM. He's D3, but I'm just not sure. Lots of options in that price bracket, Enright, McKenzie, Birchall, Dunn, Grimes and Swallow to name a few. Might have to draw straws!

      • throttlefinger says:

        Exactly. Sorta leaning myself towards Dunn/Grimes. That disposal rate that Roos has them doing seems like SC gold. Not 100% but leaning that way, SuperFreak.

  10. Osh says:

    Hibberd or Hanley for d2

  11. rolling thunder says:

    hey thats an easy one. hanley- coz hibberd is out injured

  12. Mick says:

    Any thoughts on Cripps, some vest affected scores last year? Looks capable of averaging over 80 and be a handy little step up?

  13. tysongroves says:

    Would love some feedback on my team – bit of a different strategy – seeing the most value this year in solid midfield rookies and the madness of cheap priced mid premo ..

    McVeigh, J
    Mitchell, S
    Hanley, P
    Suckling, M
    Webster, J
    McDonald, L
    Clurey, T
    Langdon, T
    Ablett, G
    Murphy, M
    Beams, D
    Thomas, D
    Tyson, D
    Aish, J
    Polec, J
    Ellis, X
    Dunstan, L
    Crouch, M
    Pyke, M
    Jacobs, S
    Apeness, M
    Thurlow, F
    Dangerfield, P
    Martin, D
    Wingard, C
    Mitchell, T
    Wright, M
    Caddy, J
    Rohan, G
    Kennedy-Harris, J

    • PJ8 says:

      The only thing I can see being a problem is your midfield is rather weak. Midfielder's score the most points. I think you should get another premium Mid, maybe downgrade Wingard to do so. Your forwards are pretty strong anyway.

      • tysongroves says:

        Yeah the idea was that i'm seeing the most value in these cheap midfielders like Polec actually hitting some 70+ scores and playing the first 3-5 rounds so they can be upgraded quickly to scoring players. Entire forward line is high scoring mids that i intend to keep all season if injury etc allows it..

        • PJ8 says:

          Fair enough. If it pays off you will be looking good. Hopefully those 4 mid rookies can score well early for you.

          • Sarah says:

            I'm going a similar strategy with 4 rookie priced players on the field in the middle: Tyson, Michie, Polec and Ellis. With a strong Backline and Forward line, they'll make for quick upgrades and should score ok at the same time. Plus they should have better job security too.

            • PJ8 says:

              I can understand the strategy. Could pay off. Who do you have M1-M4?

              • Sarah says:

                Ablett, Pendles, Priddis and Beams

                I'm hoping to take advantage of the Eagles good early draw and Priddis is sooo consistent. Loved being able to rely on him after trading him in last year. He may yet become Shuey, but either way it'll be an eagle at M3 or M4.

                • Super_Freak says:

                  I'm going similar stategy. 3 rookies onfield with Thomas as well as Beams as midpricers. FWD and DEF lines just too thin for good rookie options.

  14. Fourbells says:

    Watched a reply of the WAFL grand final last night. He was good. Just needs to get a run

  15. Suns Man says:

    Fellas, looking for a midfielder between 480-550k that doesn't have that round 8 bye, I was personally thinking one of Masten Shuey or Masten thoughts?
    Thanks Fellas

  16. matthewjsampson says:

    G'Day community,

    As we head into the business end of team selection, I'd appreciate some feedback on my team :)

    DEF: J. McVeigh, S. Mitchell, C. Enright, M. Suckling, J. Webster, L. McDonald.
    BENCH: T. Clurey, A. Georgiou (both pending rd. 1 selection)

    MID: G. Ablett, T. Cotchin, N. Dal Santo, D. Beams, D. Thomas, J. Polec, X. Ellis, L. Dunstan.
    BENCH: M. Crouch, Empty.

    RUCK: M. Lobbe, A. Sandilands.
    BENCH: F. Thurlow, T. Nankervis.

    FOR: P. Dangerfield, D. Martin, L. Parker, D. Zorko, J. Caddy, J. Kennedy-Harris.
    BENCH: G. Rohan, Empty

    $480,300 left in the war chest.

    Cheers everyone :)

  17. Boydo says:

    Anyone have any stats on X Ellis last night? Disposals? TOG?

    • PJ8 says:

      Seen nothing about him in all the write-ups form last night's game. No goals, not in the best players. Maybe someone who was actually there can advise…

      Sheed in the best though. Could be the pick rather than Ellis.

  18. Tom. H says:

    Is it too expensive to have Michie, Dunstan, Ellis AND Polec as my midfield rookies?

    • PJ8 says:

      No, in any other year it would be too expensive to have them all at that price but this year the increased rookie prices pretty much force you to have rookies at that price.

      I have the exact same in my team plus crouch.

  19. Give It A Go says:

    Hi community

    Do you think Sheils L will become a tagger again this year or will he have the freedom to move like in the NAB,
    thinking of having him as my M6, also what's your thought on Bugg, T GWS and Wright, M of ADE.

    Cheers commuity

  20. SCdonkey says:

    I think Supercoach has crashed cant login

  21. SC Lover says:

    R.SHAW OR J.WEBSTER ?

    Who do you think will have a better consistent output and JS??

    thoughts please.

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