FLESH FOR FANTASY – ROUND 14

Filed in Supercoach, Supercoach Mr Crimmins style by on June 26, 2013 • views: 1661

supercoach flesh for fantasyG’day community,

Well, it’s over. Many have come out battered and bruised, but the bye rounds are done. The beast has been tamed. We can now look forward to the next 10 weeks with our best players on the field (barring injury and suspension of course).

We also see the back of one of the most selfish bye rounds of all time. Losing Ablett, Pendlebury, Watson, Goddard, Gibbs and Dangerfield was a cruel joke from the powers of this great game. However, it finally put Ryan Griffin into the spotlight with a 143. His recent scores of 136, 176, 129 and that 143 have elevated him to the 2nd most expensive player in the game behind Gaz.

But now that the very best will be playing this week, it’s time to start cranking it up a few notches. We should start looking at cementing those last couple of premiums, and all eyes should be on the finals coming up in 6 weeks.

But for now, let’s get stuck into some Flesh.

“GET HIM IN”

TRENT MCKENZIE (GCS) DEF – $407,600 DT/$462,900 SC
- Next 5 Games: ADEL (H), BRIS (A), RICH (A), COLL (H), CARL (H)
– Recent Scores: 91, 102, 88, 114, 108

His good scoring this season has basically gone unnoticed, until now. Only 2.07% of coaches are benefiting from Trent’s consistently high scores. Since coming in against GWS in round 5, he’s had 4 scores above 100, 2 above 90 and an 88.

Beautiful thing about Trent is that he never handballs, always kicks it. In games with 20+ touches (6 of last 8 games), he’s averaged 7 handballs a game, and as we know, kicks are gold compared to handballs. If you were roped in and burnt by Grant Birchell, Trent might be a nice point of difference worth considering.

JOBE WATSON (ESS) MID – $460,900 DT/$555,500 SC
- Next 5 Games: WCE (A), PORT (H), WBD (A), GWS (A), HAW (H)
– Recent Scores: 144, 166, 73, 79, 130

I wouldn’t let the ASADA circus impact on your decision to get Jobe in. He’s dropped $90k+ from his starting value, and after a nice purple patch, which saw his price rise above $600k; he’s back down in the $500ks and great value. He has a nice run coming up, including Hawthorn, which he has a sensational record against (120, 57, 150, 140 in last 4).

He’s an ultra premium, and if the investigations were going to impact on both Jobe’s and Essendon’s season, it would have already done so. They’ve both shown they can battle on through the adversity and because of this; I would either keep him, or get him. At that price, you’d be mad not too…unless they do keep him out of side.

JOE DANIHER (ESS) FWD – $143,200 DT/$154,500 SC
- Next 5 Games: WCE (A), PORT (H), WBD (A), GWS (A), HAW (H)
– Recent Scores: 55, 98

The father/son gun has finally arrived and cherry-ripe for selection. This 201cm freak of nature has shown plenty in just his 2 games of AFL footy and looks right at home. Against the Suns he had 17 touches, 8 marks, 3 goals and 98 SC points.

He’s the perfect option to send a Dwyer/Macaffer to, who both seem to be ready to trade out. BUYER BEWARE: he is a chance to miss this week for Bellchambers, just depends on how Essendon want to structure their rucks v Cox/Naitanui.

COLIN GARLAND (DEF) MELB – $343,300 DT/$462,000 SC
- Next 5 Games: WBD (H), SYD (H), GEE (A), BRIS (H), NM (H)
– Recent Scores: 80, 64, 114, 107, 144

Another defender that has flown under the radar, Colin Garland, has hit a purple patch that does require some consideration. His past 3 weeks have seen scores of 114, 107 and 144. These scores have been the result of an increase in disposals, mark and tackles. He too, like McKenzie, is one that kicks the ball significantly more than they handball.

Many will ignore Garland given the team he is playing for, and rightfully so, but just reckon he’s one to keep an eye on if he keeps his form up, would be the ultimate point of difference.

“GET HIM OUT”

GRANT BIRCHALL (HAW) DEF- $334,200 DT/$420,700 SC
- Next 5 Games: Out injured.
– Recent Scores: 74, 30, 118, 105, 40

Thanks for the tease Grant. I was sucked in by your recent form, thought you were coming good, and BANG! you’re out injured for next month and a bit. Don’t hesitate, rid yourself of the drama and get him out!

NICK VLAUSTIN (RICH) MID/DEF – $357,700 DT/$405,700
- Next 5 Games: STK (H), NM (A), GC (H), FRE (H), SYD (A)
– Recent Scores: 141, 87, 108, 79, 31

I think it’s time to take the money and run. I’ll confess that I did punt him last week for Tom Mitchell. I read a fair bit into that 79 given his recent scoring form. He returned with a 31 and now seems in some doubt this week to play at all.

I reckon it’s a good time now to turn him into a Watson or another ultra premium that his hit the bottom. He’s yielded significant value, and quickly too. Won’t be the last time we have you in our SuperCoach careers, but for now, it’s time to part ways while on top.

SHANNON HURN (WCE) DEF – $321,400 DT/$443,700 SC
- Next 5 Games: On sidelines
– Recent Scores: Irrelevant.

Another one who will see some serious time on sidelines, and it’s a shame because he’s been scoring very well this season. Could’ve been a nice trade-up option from Birchell. Ahh well, not to worry. Trade him out if you got him.

“BREAKING POINT”

Here’s the list of this week’s key breakevens. Note: they are approximates, and not the actual figure.

GOING UP:
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), BE 86
– Lance Franklin (HAW), BE 68
– Josh J Kennedy (WCE), BE 88
– Kieren Jack (SYD), BE 99
– Tom Mitchell (SYD), BE -79
– Dean Terlich (MELB), BE 53
– Colin Garland (MELB), BE 29
– Dustin Martin (RICH), BE 81
– Michael Barlow (FRE), BE 100
– Matthew Leuenberger (BRIS), BE 65
– Joel Selwood (GEE), BE 39
– Mark Blicavs (GEE), BE 18
– Bryce Gibbs (CARL), BE 54
– Matthew Kreuzer (CARL), BE 77
– Kyle Martin (COLL), BE -43
– Scott Pendlebury (COLL), BE 99
– Heath Shaw (COLL), BE 55
– Dane Swan (COLL), BE 54
– Joe Daniher (ESS), BE -59
– Brendon Goddard (ESS), BE 78
– Patrick Ryder (ESS), BE 76
– Gary Ablett (GCS), BE 118
– Trent McKenzie (GCS), BE 59

GOING DOWN:
– Josh P Kennedy (SYD), BE 135
– Nick Riewoldt (STK), BE 119
– Ben McEvoy (STK), BE 114
– Will Minson (WBD), BE 135
– Brett Goodes (WBD), BE 91
– Tom Rockliff (BRIS), BE 113
– Jimmy Bartel (GEE), BE 139
– Mitch Robinson (CARL), BE 152
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), BE 120

“PUB TALK”

Thanks for the questions this week. Pub was a little quiet, but after the community party, many won’t be seeing alcohol for a long time. Here are this week’s big questions.

tweet1

ANSWER: I’d hold for a week if you got Birchell, and deal with him first. He HAS to go, no questions about that. Once that’s dealt with, I would see if Goodes is playing this week, and if you’ve got stable bench cover for finals. If you don’t, I would possibly keep for the bench has Higgo has suggested in podcast. If you do, however, and you have traded Birchell, then I would move him to Goddard for mine – better SuperCoach scorer than Heppell.

tweet2

ANSWER: Yeah good move, again, provided you have safe bench over for finals. I like Hunter’s JS more than Martins, but yet again, I said that about Hrovat. Hunter will be nice moneymaker in a couple of weeks, and will enable you to move up to that final premium. However, if you’ve got plenty of trades left for finals, execute that trade because you can trade out those rested if need be. It depends on circumstance, but I would execute it.

tweet3

ANSWER: As I said in “Get Him In” above, I wouldn’t worry about it affecting Jobe. The only thing that will stop him is if he doesn’t get a game. Both he and Essendon have shown plenty all season with this lingering. You wouldn’t know when they had their player interviews if you look at their performances. Back Jobe in, he’s a champion for a reason. If they decide to ban him or he doesn’t play (highly unlikely), then give 2nd thought. But as we stand now, pick him with confidence.

Well, that’s it for this week’s Flesh. Make sure you send any last minute questions to me at @Mr_Crimmins on Twitter, or in the comment box. All the best in the first weekend of freedom, post-byes.

Mr Crimmins.

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Comments (104)

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  1. Riley says:

    What about Amos frank from the hawks is he playing ??? 130.9 average in boxhill

    • Remy says:

      Wow, Is that true Riley?
      If I were you just wait till he gets his chance to play in the seniors then you can consider whether he is a good cash generator for your bench.

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      Wait and see for mine, not sure who's spot he takes. Might be a nice downgrade option down the line

  2. cousins says:

    got birch in last week, and still have vlaustin and goodes, was thinking to grab hanley and shaw for goodes and birch and trade vlaustin next week, thoughts?

  3. @Jacko2128 says:

    firstly, rowe to daniher good trade? secondly, who to get in as my last premo mid?
    I have – Gablett, barlow, danger, shuey, jpk, cotchin, mundy… leaning towards jobe

  4. Mike says:

    Does Michael Talia have good job security? I think about picking him up for Birchall as i can't afford the players above. Any other cheap defensive or forward suggestions as I can use Staker as a swing

    • Dools says:

      Hi Mike,
      Have a look at J.Hombsch Pt ADL 3 games but AVG is 105 and B/E is 53 and only 406K

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      I beliebe he does, but not sure if he's a long term option. I would hold off, try and make a downgrade and then send Birchell elsewhere because if you Staker, you can swing him to def and just wait a bit. Don't go into finals with Talia

      • Mike says:

        Thanks Dools and Crimmins, will sell Birchall and Vlastuin for Clisby and Dustin Martin (Staker swing) or would a better option be Clisby and McKenzie as I still want cash in the bank for future upgrades.
        I know someone will say get Heath Shaw but I'm not convinced worried might get the Hanley/Birchall freefall.

  5. elM says:

    thoughts on malceski – if you take out his lowest score of 38, which could be treated as an outlier, average of 98. Tried and tested; I like his scoring distribution.

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      Interesting one. He does score consistently well. Owned by only 4% of coaches so it's a good PoD. I would execute for mine. Sometimes these can be defining trades – especially if you pull it off. He's averaging a ton of the ball compared to recent years, and he's marking the ball more. I would go for it!

  6. Scott says:

    Daniher selected as an emergency… stick with him or opt for someone else?

  7. Bod says:

    thoughts on bob murphy from the dogs?
    averaging 94 odd with 2 scores in the high 60s but the rest have been 87,92, pair of 97s, 106 ,114 and 121. Could be a good POD and is a proven player who has only been hampered a bit by injuries in recent years

  8. Vic City says:

    This back line is going to be the death of me. Was planning to go Staker -> Dusty and maybe Dixon -> Gibbs but now obviously Birch needs to go.

    Should I go Terlich -> Dusty (swing Staker back) and Birch -> Gibbs or go Staker -> Dusty and give McKenzie a go for Bitch?

    • chandanrajdb says:

      IMO….I would keep Terlich….I think he will be a good bench cover if required and also he hasn't fattened up fully yet…..

      Birchall to Gibbs should be your priority mate……since Gibbs BE is low……and will go up in price by $20k…….

      I would keep Dixon if he is named to play this week considering the Defenders chaos this season…..if he doesn't get named then go for Dusty through Staker……

      Cheers,
      Raj…..

  9. Micko says:

    Anyone see midfield rookie HUNTER (bulldogs) play on the weekend?

    Scored well, has he got what it takes Jock? Do I jump on him to gain some cash to sell off Birchall and vlastiun?

    Any advise.. I wanna bring in either Shaw or Gibbs..

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      I'm worried about his long term JS. Smells a bit of Hrovat, and as McCartney said in his presser before Hunter's debut – will start up forward. A no for mine, but given there's a drought of rookies coming up, he could be worth considering if you're going to sit on bench and have other cover.

  10. throttlefinger says:

    Trading Birchall and Vlastuin. Getting Goddard. Recommend anyone for $379K?

    • Remy says:

      Consider Talia from the doggies 309k….

      • throttlefinger says:

        Considered him or McPharlin. May just downgrade Vlas for Clisby and take the $…although he's only played one game. Damn Birchall. Sheeesh.

        • chandanrajdb says:

          I would be doing Vlastuin to Goddard this week and would probably hold on to Birchall this week, if you got a good bench player……and then see how Hanley goes this week and if he finds his form then probably bring him in next week…….I think he will be below $400k……or you can decide who to go for in Defenders since you don't want waste too many trades on DEFENDERS this season since it is Chaotic………who ever you bring in should be in your team for the whole season, this depends on how many trades you've got!!!……Wait for one more week and see who is really worth bringing in…….

          Cheers,
          Raj…..

          • throttlefinger says:

            Thanks Raj. Have Hanley and Shaw already. Bench is weak (Hutchins and Wilson). Leaning towards Goddard for Birch then Vlas for Clipsy. Pocket money for Fwd upgrade.

            First year at it so made shit ton of early mistakes (including not bringing in Goddard earlier). Paying price now.

            • chandanrajdb says:

              Like your trades mate……but only question would be JS of Clisby?? he has played only one game you can still bring him in next week and also see how he performs…….see the selections tonight before jumping on him…….Frawley might be back…….

              Cheers,
              Raj….

              • throttlefinger says:

                Unfortunately need to do downgrade to have enough money to upgrade to Goddard. Talia and McPhalin were other options. Will see. Team announcements will make this easier to figure out for sure.

  11. Remy says:

    Hi guys, what do you think of my defense?
    Goddard, Gibbs, Ibbotson (got him for 380k), Carlisle, D. Pierce, Birchall, (Goodes, Thurlow)

  12. chandanrajdb says:

    Mr. Crimmins,

    Thanks for answering my question above in your article……..regarding Jobe Watson…

    I am in a bit of panic mode to bring in Jobe into my team…..i have got very very less number of trades left…and cannot afford to do any mistakes…..and also cannot afford to do a sideways trade if he gets suspended for admitting he has taken the banned drug…….I am ranked well (464) overall and if I make slightest of a mistake I will be out of the race for overall glory……which I still think is bit difficult to achieve from now anyways…….just want to give it a proper shot…..

    My trade this week will be,

    OUT: Vlastuin IN Gibbs

    I am thinking to hold on to Blicavs who is in my midfield this week since he has a very low BE and will go up in price…….however my initial thoughts were trade Blicavs this week to Jobe…..which means I will have a team FULL of premiums…….

    My Gut feel says HOLD my trade this week of Blicavs to Jobe…..and see what happens……I have got T Mitchell on the field for this week which IMO not a bad option!!…….

    Cheers,
    Raj……

    • dave says:

      its better not to get any dons. i already got goddard and watson. hope jobe plays the rest of the season but if u dont have him this is not the time to get him.

    • Aaron says:

      I'm in the same boat Raj… The only problem with holding off a week is a BIG score he will get tonight as WCE don't really have a tager.

      My other option is to have Mitchell on the field which is ok and upgrade my last defensive spot that has been so inconsistent…. Looking to spend around the mid 400k mark as I have all the guns, thinking Mckenzie or Hartlett? What would your advice be for the defenders?

      Also they say that the ASADA investigation won't be over until August and I don't think Jobe can get suspended before then because I think ASADA have already been told that they had the drug but its just blown up now from what Jobe said obviously, but still it's touch and go isn't it.

      • chandanrajdb says:

        Hmmm…..

        Are you bringing in Jobe into your team this week??? or do you have him already?

        Regarding defenders……IMO its probably the chaotic position this year in SC……

        I wouldn't be going for Hartlett mate……he gives you too much of stress each week…….he is in my team and I know how badly i want him out my team…..unfortunately I cannot do it, very thin on trades…….who knows may be during the finals i may actually get rid of this guy if I am left with any trades…….

        I would probably go for T McKenzie……not a bad option really….or if you can hold onto for one more week and assess the best possible defender to bring in…….only if you can though……

        Cheers,
        Raj…

        • Aaron says:

          Nah I'm thinking of bringing him in this week, and I think I will. It will complete my midfield and 99% of my team. In saying that I really like Mckenzie but if he scores well this week I most likely wont be able to bring him in next week so I'm hoping Hanley can get a good score this week to justify a position in my team. But all in all I think holding off the defenders another week is probably the right thing to do. After all the midfield is the engine room!

          And I definitely think you should pull the trigger on Jobe and Gibbs this week, any chance you get to fill your team with guns I don't think there should be any hesitation, especially Watson and Gibbs that's absolute quality!

          Do it mate.

          • chandanrajdb says:

            Thanks Aaron,

            Much appreciated mate……

            Will be a last minute call tonight I think…..whether to bring him in this week or hold on to my trade……

            Cheers,
            Raj…….

  13. dave says:

    who will score better

    staker or nicholson (GCS)??

    • chandanrajdb says:

      See if you can use a emergency loop hole there mate…..since Brisbane Lions are playing on Sunday and GCS are playing on saturday and if you are using either of them above for Steve J…..Geelong playing on Saturday night……

      Cheers,
      Raj….

  14. jake says:

    Community! my Forawd line is; S.Johnson, D. Martin, J.Kennedy, L.Franklin, T.Rockliff, Lecras. (staker, b.kennedy)

    Switching Vlastuin to fwd line for Staker and trading vlastuin out, Which FORWARD should i get to complete my fwd line? pls help?

  15. dave says:

    hi guys

    who the best for the captains loop hole??

    thinking about nic nat, gibbs, and walker, cox and waton. who should i put the BIG V on??

    cheers

  16. jake says:

    i reckon give it to nicnat for tonight.

  17. Richo says:

    In a predicament…

    Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Shaw, Duffield, Birchall, Goodes, (Vlastuin, Thurlow)

    Mids: Ablett, Swan, Pendles, JPK, Cotchin, Fyfe, Priddis, Shuey, (T.Mitchell, Hrovat)

    Rucks: Naitanui, Minson, (Nicholls, Gawn)

    Fwds: Martin, Cox, Johnson, Rockliff, JJK, Franklin, (Staker, Daniher)

    Thoughts on priority this week?

    – Birchall for Heppell / Shuey for Jobe?

    Or

    Birchall out Staker back & get in one of Walker / Bartel / Roughead & Vlastuin out for Heppell??

    • SMH says:

      Heppell is the man! Trade him in for Birchall

    • Jake says:

      I would get out vlastuin if he is playing because he will drop in price masively and then put in heppell. This will leave staker to cover while johnson is injured or you can get rid of birch move staker back and get in rough maybe. Look at bartel and watson next week because they will probably go down in price.

    • Richo says:

      Cheers lads. Sort of what I was thinking. Hate that I burnt a trade bringing in Birchall last week! Was going to pull the trigger on one of the others, but I couldn’t resist his price. Don’t think he can be carried at this late stage.

      Now I know Watson is an ultra premium but is trading up Shuey or Priddis next week the right move? Not too much of a sideways trade?

  18. Scott says:

    My backline at the moment:

    Goddard, Heppel, Gibbs, Shaw, Birchall, Goodes (thurlow, saunders)

    I can trade birchall to any defender, who is best?

  19. Bruds says:

    PLEASE HELP!!!!
    I have suffered many headaches and a slight nightmare this week debating what to do.
    I have decided to to trade out vlastuin but have no idea who to put in for him
    -ibbotson or mckenzie seeing as i have goddard, heppell, shaw, hartlett, gibbs and back this week my opponent in my main league has both
    -my second trade is going to be trading out either monfries or zorko to move martin to my forward line and pick up pendles but who should i get rid of seeing as monfries has a low breakeven and zorko can produce massive scores?

    • Scott says:

      get rid of zorko

      and i have the same issue in the back

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      I'm not the biggest wrap of Ibbotson like everyone else is. I would strongly consider Trent McKenzie for Vlas.

      Also, as for Zorko/Monfries – that's so tough. Both have good games, but putrid games aswell. I would flip a coin. Maybe Zorko because Monfries does have that low BE and good time to get Zorko out before he drops even more. So tough though.

  20. Peter says:

    Who do you reckon I should grab out of Watson, Fyfe or Dangerfield?

  21. Ryan says:

    McKenzie or Shaw? With McKenzie I will save $$, what do you think their predicted averages will be for the rest of the season?

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      I'd look at The Mad Irishman's article this week on the defence – discusses Trent in detail. I would personally go Shaw, just because I reckon he has potential to score bigger when he has his good games

  22. Sam says:

    is amos frank going to debut this week?

  23. Sully321 says:

    Webster, Clisby, or Hine need a downgrade option in the backline

  24. Sam says:

    CLISBY mate

  25. joe says:

    who should i have on field this week
    staker or hawkins
    cheers guys

  26. Josh says:

    Never thought i would ask this but who is more likely to score higher Griffen against Melbourne or Gaz against Adelaide, thanks

  27. Michael says:

    Birchall and Vlastuin OUT for Clisby and D.Martin (Staker swing) or Clisby and McKenzie or any other defender

  28. Sully321 says:

    Hey community,

    I've got 10 trades left $230,000
    I need to get Birchall out thinking of bringing in Shaw.

    Which leaves me with $92,000 left.
    Option 1: thinking of taking Goodes out and either bringing in a premium under 490,000
    Option 2: take Goodes out for Clisby which would free up some cash so I could finally get rid of Jacobs and bring in Minson or Goldstein next week.

    thoughts would be much appreciated thanks community

    • @Mr_Crimmins says:

      I like option 1 for mine, only because I worry about Clisby's JS. Reckon option 2 is not bad, but you'll need cover come finals and don't reckon Clisby will be there when you need him most.

  29. Judd says:

    What's the rest of your backline Sully?

    • Sully321 says:

      Goddard, Hartlett, Gibbs, Terlich, Vlastuin, Goodes, Thurlow, Shaw, (after the Birchall trade)

  30. Judd says:

    Well if Essendon hadn't played last night I would tell you to get Heppel or Hibberd, but I like the look of Malckesi for 479,000, otherwise Trent Mackenzie or Paul Duffield for 463,000 each

  31. Sully321 says:

    Terlich or Vlastuin on the field?

  32. Pete says:

    Malceski getting owned!

  33. Sully321 says:

    1923 with 4 players to go (rockliff, cotchin, buddy and roughead

    • Judd says:

      I was looking at around 2400 then along came Hannebery, JPK, Swan, Fyfe, Duffield got subbed out injured then Terlich didn't play so ill be copping a 0 this week. 1615 points with 6 to play, need big games from Franklin, Deledio, Rockliff, Zorko, Dusty Martin and Staker

      • Judd says:

        My mistake Terlich did play and he scored quite well haha, wont be copping a zero will be copping a 109 in its place. 1722 with 6 to play predicted score of 2292.

  34. James says:

    Who should I downgrade out of Brett Goodes or Dean Terlich to Clisby?

    Is Andrew Walker the best forward upgrade option?

    Cheers

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