Well, battle with the dreaded monster has commenced and while some scores took a hit this week, many were able to dodge the bullet and post some nice scores.
After a week of no trading last week, this week we should start looking at moving a few players out, preferably, mid-pricers or rookies that have hit the ceiling. Strategically, to avoid any future donuts, dumping any underperforming players for those who just had the round 11 bye seems the logical way to attack it.
There are a number of quality premiums with great runs home that should be considered. Along with the usual “Breaking Point” and “Pub Talk”, this week is all about loading ammunition and shooting at the wild beast (byes) again.
Here is phase 2 of the battle against the byes.
“GET HIM IN”NAT FYFE (FRE) MID – $482,300 DT/$548,700 SC - Next 5 Games: BRIS (H), NM (H), GEE (A), STK (H), WCE (H)
– Recent Scores: 103, 93, 111, 128, 108
If there’s a draw that softens up on the run home, it’s Fremantle’s. 7 of their last 12 are at home, and only 4 of last year’s finalists. That said, Ross the Boss has made this outfit into a competitive beast and a beneficiary of this is the Teen Wolf himself. He’s had only 2 scores below 100 all year, with a season low of 93. With this bye now done and dusted, and an easy run in the SC finals (GWS, MELB, PORT, STK), Nat should be seriously considered as a trade-in option this week.MICHAEL BARLOW (FRE) MID – $535,300 DT/$558,00 SC - Next 5 Games: BRIS (H), NM (H), GEE (A), STK (H), WCE (H)
– Recent Scores: 79, 108, 119, 138, 141
Another Docker worth considering is Michael Barlow. After that horrific leg break which cut short an incredible debut season, Barlow has been slowly working his way back to fantasy form. However he seems to be back to his best, averaging 26 touches a game and is kicking the ball more than he was in 2010 (what we want as coaches). Freo’s run home is well documented in Nat Fyfe’s description, and he could provide a significant point of difference come finals time. Certainly one to consider.TRENT COTCHIN (RICH) MID – $442,700 DT/$550,700 SC - Next 5 Games: ADEL, WBD. STK, NM, GC
– Recent Scores: 144, 76, 119, 104, 78
While it may look it on face value, given his significant drop in price, the whole “Cotchin can’t cop a tag” has become a bit of a myth. He’s averaging just 0.7 less disposals a game, but has dropped considerably in the tackle column. As such, he’s not setting a blistering pace fantasy-wise like last season. That said, he’s only dropped below 100 twice this season, which makes him good value at that price. While Richmond’s run home may not be as good as Fremantle’s, they do play Brisbane in the first week and GWS in the prelims, so a big score from Cotch could be the difference between another week, or packing your bags. A bit more consistent than Deledio, he’s someone I’d look at trading in from the round 11 byes.
“GET HIM OUT”BRENT MOLONEY (BRIS) MID – $382,400 DT/$409,800 SC - Next 5 Games: FRE (A), GEE (H), HAW (A), GCS (H), NM (H)
– Recent Scores: 90, 97, 75, 69, 35
If looking at the Lions’ next run of games wasn’t enough to tempt you to trade, take a look at his last 3 scores. If his last 3 scores still aren’t enough, note that he is currently battling injury. It’s time to say goodbye to Moloney, who up till 4 weeks ago, we leading the pack for ‘Mid-price buy of the year’. However, it’s all gone to the dogs for Moloney and with a difficult run coming up and potentially carrying an injury, it’s time to say goodbye to the man and send him to a Fyfe/Barlow/Cotchin/Deledio.
Here are this week’s break evens you need to take note of. Many premiums are starting to fall short of their break evens and becoming cheaper by the round. Knowing when to hold or fold is critical towards a good finals run. * = approximates.
– Dyson Heppell (ESS), BE 73
– Andrew Walker (CARL), BE 26
– Bryce Gibbs (CARL), BE 81
– Tom Nicholls (GCS), BE -158
– Dane Swan (COLL), BE 46
– Heath Shaw (COLL), BE 86
– Brent Macaffer (COLL), BE 24
– Ben Kennedy (COLL), BE -37
– Kyle Martin (COLL), BE -110
– Brent Staker (BRIS), BE -44
– Michael Barlow (FRE), BE 60
– Nat Fyfe (FRE), BE 99
– Jobe Watson (ESS), BE 207
– Brendon Goddard (ESS), BE 129
– Mitch Robinson (CARL), BE 146
– Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL), BE 137
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), BE 134
– Pearce Hanley (BRIS), BE 163
– Dayne Zorko (BRIS), BE 121
– Paul Duffield (FRE), BE 123
– Trent Cotchin (RICH), BE 152
– Brett Deledio (RICH), BE 129
– Dustin Martin (RICH), BE 176
Once again, thank you for your bombardment of questions. Nothing warms my heart more than an inundation of questions from a curious bunch of people I love so dearly. Sorry I couldn’t get to everyone’s; here are the burning questions for this week.
ANSWER: Good question. Seeing as both Gibbs and Heppell share the same bye as Hooker, and Ibbotson not really tickling my fancy, I reckon Gibbs is the way to go. BUT if you’ve got the extra coin, I’d definitely consider going Pearce Hanley. Already had his bye and is a proven SC scorer. If not, Gibbs for mine.
ANSWER: A tough, but desirable problem to have Emre. There’s merit of all 3 of those players. Cotchin is an option due to having bye in round 11. Kennedy is a proven scorer, and because of a couple of off games, has become considerably cheap. Watson, off the back of 2 poor games, will be very enticing after his bye. For me, it’s a question of when you want to trade. Short term to cover a 0, I’d go Trent, but long term, provided you make trade after his bye, Jobe Watson is the answer for me.
ANSWER: Yeah interesting predicament, and one many coaches would be in. Kyle Martin’s form has been sensational since making his debut, but with a round 13 bye, he hits the bubble this week. It’s for this very reason, plus questionable job security, that I’d go Nathan Hrovat, which is what I’m doing. Just like his JS more, and even though his numbers haven’t been super high, he’s made a nice impression early into a long career. Hrovat for mine.
ANSWER: Depends on your needs for mine. When Andrew Walker scores big, he scores BIG!! 6 of his 7 100s have been above 120, with 5 of those above 130. Minson, on the other hand, has continued his incredible run and is now banking 100s for fun. If you need a ruckman, I’d go Minson. If you’re desperate for a forward, I’d go Walker. But if you’re upgrading to keep up yourself in the running, I’d go Will Minson purely based on his consistency and having the round 11 bye. But you can’t lose with either.
ANSWER: I don’t mind it. Once the byes are over, structures won’t be important, and you’d just want to get guys in who will score you points. Maric as a 2nd ruck is a worry though, hasn’t been setting the world on fire so monitor his scores, because another couple of poor games and I would consider trading him to a Roughead and create yourself a swing set.
All the best for week 2 of the byes. We’re knee deep in battle with the beast, and good trades this week can separate yourself from the rest. Remember to send any questions to @Mr_Crimmins, or post in the comment box below.