Tight Arse.. Wednesday? Round 11

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach by on June 5, 2013 • views: 1694

Supercoach strategy with Mick

Good day community and welcome to this week’s edition of “Tight Arse … Wednesday”. Just doesn’t quite have the same ring to it, does it?

Well as you can see we are coming to you a little later this week due to round 10 running into Monday Night Football. I’m not a fan of this Monday Football, and if any of you are similar to me, you too would have been up until 12 midnight waiting for round 11 to open. Well we couldn’t go to bed not knowing where we are ranked and how we moved up or down on those league ladders.

So I know it’s round 11 and a lot of you might be thinking what’s the point of trading in any players this week when they are going to miss either round 12 or round 13? The general consensus out there is to hold this week and start to upgrade after round 12. While I do see the logic in this argument and depending on your team and your ranking, whether you are chasing a league win or you are trying to set a PB in the overall rankings, there is strong merit to this approach.

However like most things in this wonderful game there can be a counterargument that would say trade, trade, trade this week.

The argument that if you trade this week the player you bring in will miss either next week or the week after is quite an unusual one for me. The very same thing could have been said last week going into round ten and yet I didn’t see anybody sayings don’t trade in anyone this week because they will miss over the bye rounds. Every player you have traded in so far this year will have a bye so my line of thinking is if you can improve your team this week by trading, then by all means trade. As long as you put in the slightest thought to your trades this week you shouldn’t adversely affect your side in the coming weeks. For example if you currently have 21 players that will play in round 12 and only 17 players that will play round 13, bring in a round 12 upgrade this week and not a round 13 upgrade. That will mean you still have 18 scoring players for round 12 and will have increased your round 13 scoring players to the full complement of 18.

So after saying all that, are there any tight arse selections for us to choose from this week? You bet there are! This week I will be looking at a couple of top echelon players, who both have fallen over $130,000 from the start of the year.

Joel Selwood

Average 104.2
Breakeven 134
Current Price $491,300
Priced to Average 95.58
Bye Round 12

Community I didn’t lie when I said we are looking at the top echelon this week. Before I go any further I just want to remind you what Joel Selwood has produced in SC since his debut season in 2007. He showed great improvement in his first two years and elevated to an Elite Premium in 2009 where he has been ever since.

Joel Selwood

Like most of the top fantasy players he is a tough inside midfielder who wins his own ball and dominates in the fantasy relevant stats finishing in the top ten for contested possessions, clearances, tackles and inside 50’s. Joel is also a very creative player when he is given (or makes) time and space and is currently ranked 5th for goal assists. He also has a very good knack of drawing fouls and has averaged over 2.2 free kicks a game every year since 2008. The only couple of drawbacks you could have with Joel is that he doesn’t kick a lot of goals and that he has only managed to complete a full season once.

So why is he so cheap now?

Well to be honest this one has me scratching my head a little. This was the man who has been a model of consistency over the last number of years. In 2010 he only dropped below 100 on six occasions, in 2011 he only dropped below the tonne on four occasions (non-injury effected) and last year he only went under 100 three times. Yet this year already he has dropped below 100 on five occasions, three of which were over the past three consecutive weeks. Hence his current price of$491,300. So where is it all going wrong and what might be the cause? Let’s compare his stats from this year so far with his best year of 2012.

Joel Selwood averages

Straight away we can see that his disposal numbers are down by over 3 a game which would contribute to his current run of bad form. However the one stat that jumps out at me the most and it also gives a glue as to why he is down on his numbers from last year is his time on ground. Last year he played 87.7% on the field where this year that stat has come down to just 83.5%. It might not seem that much but that would equate to 5mins less on the field. This is telling me that Joel must be suffering from some sort of injury and isn’t 100% match fit. Digging a little deeper Joel only played 59% of the game in round 8 against Port Adelaide which would be very unusual if he wasn’t carrying some sort of niggle. Although he played 85% on the ground last week, he was a long way from his best and may just have wanted to be a part of the historic first game under the lights at Simonds Stadium.

So what I’m saying is there is a good chance all this analysis might be for nothing as I believe that Joel might be given an extra week off and be rested for this weekend’s clash with GWS. If that is the case I will have to revert you fine folks back to this article before round 13 because a fit and firing Joel Selwood would be a must have in everyone’s team. The added bonus is you’d be picking him up at under $500,000. An absolute steel. If he is selected this weekend I would still think he is a very good pick up even if I think the bye will do him the world of good and he still has quite a high breakeven. The fact that Geelong are playing GWS would almost guarantee he would be one of ten or so that will tonne up against the hapless GWS. Although in saying that Jobe Waston and Marc Murphy owners might disagree. (Jobe 66, Marc 73)

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2013 Predicted Status: Elite

Predicted Average from here on out: 111-115pts

Final Word: Will bounce back from a poor run of late. I suspect he is carrying a minor injury and the bye will do him the world of good. Expect to see the output we have come to expect from him return from round 13 on. Might be a better option after the bye but with GWS this week I wouldn’t be afraid to go now. That is if he is selected.

Dane Swan

Average 111.9
Breakeven 119
Current Price $523,300
Priced to Average 101.8
Bye Round 13

Community, just like how he fits in his jumper, Dane has managed to squeeze into this week’s tight arse segment (Sorry Dane, you aren’t even … that … never mind). Even though he is still an expensive prospect for some I would like to put it in prospective that he is now $152,000 cheaper than he was at the start of the year and may very well be as cheap as you are going to get him for the rest of the year. Again before we jump in let me remind you what Dane has produced in SC over the last few years. Let there be no underestimating his ability to score big as indicated by finishing the last four years with Super Elite status.

Dane Swan

You might remember I did a little piece on Swan in the preseason where I said;

“This guy is an enigma. He doesn’t have a great deal of pace, is far from an elite kick but yet year after year he produces the goods both in terms of his on the field performances and in what is important to us, fantasy scoring. Dane Swan could probably play a whole game in the corner pocket and still come out with 40 processions. He just reads the game so well and the football always finds a way into his hands. A sign of a great player.”

I still stand by all of the above and I actually have to laugh a little when it was stated over the weekend that Swan had been quite the week only amassing 23 disposals. It’s funny that any 23 disposal game can be considered quite but in Swan’s case it is true. Since 2009 Swan has averaged over 30 disposals a game coming in with a career high of 34.5 last season. Just remarkable numbers. His efficiency was never all that flash but when you are getting that much of the ball it doesn’t seem to matter. What is also a miss conception with Swan is that he is solely an outside player that sheep dogs at the back of the packs.

While this does account for a lot of his possessions he also knows how to find his own ball and actually averaged 13.5 contested possessions a game last year. That’s 40% of all his possessions being contested. Not bad for a sheep dog! *tongue in cheek.

So why is he so cheap now?

Well a little like Joel above, Dane has come off a run of below par scores all going through his rolling average at once and accounting for his sudden and shape fall in price. The table below will show that Dane was tracking along at his usual rate up until round 8 against Geelong. An 84 in this game followed by a 67 against Sydney then resulted in his average and price taking a plunge.

Dane Swan why is he cheap

At first I was thinking that Swan too must be carrying some form of injury but then interestingly enough Swan said in a post-match interview that Collingwood had been trying something knew against Geelong and Sydney and playing him as a forward and that he was happy to be back in the middle against Brisbane. This would explain the lower than average disposal numbers in both those games and add to this that is disposal efficiency was at a season low of 57% against the Swans and you can account for his season low score of 67. To give you some idea of how unusual that score is for Dane Swan you would have to go all the way back to round 7 in 2009 to find a lower score, where on that occasion he posted a 66.

We can also use Dane’s past stats to draw comparisons and trend lines for what might happen for the rest of the current season. In 2011 he had four consecutive scores below 100 from rounds 8 through to 11. At the end of round 11 he had a season average of 115.7. He would then go on to average 127.6 for the rest of the year.

The only concern I have with Swan is that he is likely to be rested at some stage during the year and might very well be given a two week break from round 12 through there bye in round 13. Again I revert you back to my preseason article where I said,

“I think he will be managed very carefully to ensure he is in top form for Collingwood’s assault on the Flag. Collingwood play Gold Coast in round 17 and GWS in round 18 before a very tricky run home that includes Essendon, Sydney away, Hawthorn, West Coast and North in the last five games. I expect Swan to be rested in either round 17 or 18 and possibly once earlier during the year and as others around him improve will see a slightly reduced average for 2013. It is for those reasons I will be looking elsewhere for midfielders in my initial team for 2013”

Note I stated in my initial team. My dilemma now is not whether I want to bring Swan in but whether now’s the right time to bring him in or do I try hold off until after his round 13 bye. I fear that he will be rested next week against the Bulldogs in which case he will still be around the same price in round 14. However if he does play the Dees this week and the Doggies the next he could very well be back up over $550,000 and might not be as easy to bring in.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2013 Predicted Status: Elite

Predicted Average from here on out: 118-122pts

Final Word: Unusual low scores can be equated to Collingwood trying and failing with playing Swan forward. Will surely be back in the middle where he belongs and back to producing monster scores. At this price I am very tempted to bring him in this week despite my fears he may miss a couple of games later on.

Stay tuned..

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mad as a cut snake, tight as a fishes arse, but one hell of a fantasy footballer. Click here for more from the Mad Irishman

And make sure you follow him on twitter https://twitter.com/Da_Mad_Irishman

 

 

 

Comments (62)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. woggyboy1796 says:

    should we wait till after the byes to pick him up or jump on him now because his breakeven is still pretty high ?

    • Birch's Buddy says:

      Personally I'm going for him just before round 14, but that's down to my personal trading plans over the next five weeks.

      • woggyboy1796 says:

        yeah i think i might look at that aswell, might upgrade him for O'mera thoughts?
        also what do you reckon about trading jamar for kreuzer?

        • Birch's Buddy says:

          O'Meara might have to go a bit early, depending on his performance this week. I'm jumping off him now because I might not get the opportunity to do so later.

          Jamar to Kreuzer looks good. Won't be going for Kreuzer after my experiences with him last year (very up and down), and there is the Warnock-effect to consider. If you have the coin, perhaps plump for Minson? If unable, Kreuzer is a good pick too.

          • woggyboy1796 says:

            yeah i am hoping O'meara has an alright game so he doesnt go down too much, then trade him for a birchell but Kreuzer looks in good shape and has been scoring well over the past 2 weeks with a low BE and Jamar has a breakeven of 110ish so i have to get rid of him

    • Logan says:

      It depends on your current structures and if you have 18/+ players over the byes. The wise thing to do will be to hold till R14 and reasses which will give 2 more rounds to proove his consistency. With that being said, he is playing Melb & WBD over the next 2 rounds. Tread carefully IMO.

  2. Sam says:

    i already have him since day 1

  3. @MRB37 says:

    These are the two i'm targeting to round out my midfield, but i'm somewhat 50/50 on if I should buy them both now, or wait until after the byes. I'm pretty sure i'll be trading O'Meara in Rd 13, which seems like the perfect time to buy Selwood as he should be the same price, or slightly cheaper. Moloney is out this week also.

    • Logan says:

      Moloney is a must to trade out immediately (this week or before R12 before he bleeds money). With O'Meara, you may wish to pull the life support plug soon with his high BE (may end up loosing 20-30k based on my calcs). Has been durable but starting to flatten out – gr8 talent but starting to tire.

      Be wary with both Pink Swan & Hard Woody – you are buying them with a certain degree of risk; hence the drop in price for ultra prems. Maybe reconsider after some consistent scores (worth paying an extra $20k for that).

      • @MRB37 says:

        Yea, Moloney is a definite OUT by Rd 12.

        Not trading O'meara, my thinking is because I have 4 mids out in Rd 12 and 5 in Rd 13, if I trade him now, that'll just potentially add to my woes even more in those two rounds. If I keep him for at least 1 more round, sure i'll lose some $, but it'll work in my favour come Rd 12 or 13 where i'll have another body on the field.

  4. Scott says:

    Going to trade out O'meara for Swan this week. Both have a bye in round 13 so doesn't matter there..

  5. Saltysalts says:

    Just wanted to give a shout out to the JR community! I've cracked the top 1000 this week and am currently sitting ranked at 787, a personal best by far!

    Thanks so much to Jock, Crouching, Higgo, Mick, Wayne-o and all the rest!

    Equal thanks goes out to all of you who have come onto these forums with your own words of wisdom. Thanks for all the tips and opinions!

    Apologies for my own praises! (i'm sure there are those in this community who have done better) Good luck over the bye rounds and the rest of the year to everyone!

    • jbombs jets says:

      Nice call there Saltysalts having a good year myself thanks to the JR community .
      Currently ranked 1st overall ? jbombs jets

      • Saltysalts says:

        ino saw you up there jbomb! we're behind you mate all the best!!

      • Super_Freak says:

        Great work jbomb. Wish me luck community, I have to play him in the final round. Hopefully my team has improved a little by then and I wont get smashed by too much

    • Birch's Buddy says:

      Well put! Couldn't be more grateful to Jock and the boys for doing a ripping job week in and week out. Cheers boys!

  6. Nicholas says:

    Swanny without a doubt, such an elite player, and remember he plays Melbourne this week. Expect a huge game from him.

  7. Remy says:

    Hi guys, I'm wondering who I should trade out first to free up some cash out of the following? Dwyer, Neade, Gawn, Terlich or Mayes. Any thoughts on a good downgrade option for any of them?

    • Stevo says:

      You poor bastard. Can't beleive you got them all still!

    • SCaddict says:

      Assuming none of these guys are in your midfield do you have any DPPs in your midfield? If you do then you can downgrade those guys you mention to a Tom Mitchell, Kyle Martin or a Nathan Hrovat.

      Otherwise you may have to hope that Danniher is named soon for the Bombers as good defence and forward downgrade options are rare as hen's teeth right now.

      Nicholls for the Suns looks to be a good downgrade option for Gawn.

    • pie.of.god says:

      Could be worth considering dropping 3 of them…given most are beginning to bleed cash

    • bout7 says:

      Get rid of neade and mayes 1st for players like Hrovat and Tom Mitchell

    • Logan says:

      Mayes, Gawn & Neade have to go (eventhough Gawn is performing well in the VFL).

      Keep Dwyer – he still has money to make. Terlich is an interesting case …. his BE has now reached his YTD avg. But with the current issues with erratic defender performances, keep him till R13 and reassess for a Heppell, Goddard or Duffield in R14 (plus he is a R12 bye defender which is gold during R11&13).

    • Jett says:

      I would trade Neade first

  8. Hedge says:

    Great Yarn. aggain.

  9. SCaddict says:

    It's been a frustrating season for Swanny owners like me. Hopefully he can get going in the second half of the season as the Pies draw opens up and that Bucks gives him more midfield time.

    • Nanna says:

      Or he'll just continue to keep having quiet games? I ditched cotchin a while back and have not regretted it at all.

      Have concerns re swan and his need for a rest also. Think the go is to pick up a few hard-nuts who grnd it out each week and don't need the cotton wool

      • Sunka says:

        Cotchin is averaging 112 mate. Hasn't dropped off much at all? Fair call to ditch him when he was injured though

    • Sloan says:

      Think Swan will start putting together better numbers. Injuries and such along with slow start are probably the root. Maybe not the best at making adjustments. He's a born badass so I think he returns to form shortly.

      And at times I really, really considered ditching Swanny. SC trading savvy, seems to be, to be as much about an exercise in patience than anything else.

  10. Good ol' Darren says:

    What are people's thoughts on picking up Birchall next week for Terlich?

    • Good ol' Derek says:

      that's my plan, hope it comes off. One good game isn't much to go off, but I'd say he's on his way back to scoring premium SC points.

    • Logan says:

      Fool me once, Shame on you; Fool me twice, Nah, never goin 2 happ'n again. :-(

      Only scores well when he gets off his birch or after he's been rested. Soft. Maybe I'm being a sulk. :-(,,,,,

  11. Luke says:

    With both Moloney and O'Meara still in my starting 8 midfielders, I do want to get rid of one of them. Thinking of upgrading Moloney to Watson. I really do want a league win this week, as I am facing my rival. Should I go for the trade or not? Or should I think about another trade option? Maybe downgrading Moloney or O'Meara, but if I should make a trade this week, should I definitely do it on Moloney? And also should it be an upgrade or a downgrade. Also keep in mind I can afford any player, and I already have Swan.

    • Logan says:

      Definitely do it as long as you can show restraint during the next 2 weeks. Maybe a strategic upgrade to give you 18/+ players throughout the byes (but make sure it is for a player that you would have got if there were no byes). Hope that makes sense.

      • Luke says:

        Yes that makes sense, thank you. So the Moloney to Watson trade is good?

        • God says:

          Can't go wrong with old Jobe Watson, get him in

        • Logan says:

          Jobe is a great option matey ….. can't fault you. But just a friendly reminder that Jobe is going to have a high BE for the next 2 weeks (i.e. may/will drop in price b4 R14). I don't look too much into BE's as long as I'm assured a good return; in Jobe's case, an avg of 120+ from here on out for the $610k price tag.

          • Dean says:

            If were talking SC Jobe Watson BE isn't high, it's at 134
            He plays Carlton in Round 11 and his Average is 119 so he only needs a extra 15 points to match his BE.
            He then plays Gold Coast in round 12, I'm predicting his price will rise in round 12 so if you want him get him NOW and at least that way you have a premium for the next two BYE rounds.

            • Logan says:

              Spot on Deano. However, that's because of his high score of 166 in R9. Once this is removed from his rolling avg @ the end of R11, his BE may/will increase (i.e. ofcourse if he doesn't score highly this week). Knowing the champ that he is, I'm sure he'll score prolifically.

              • Luke says:

                Thanks guys for all the advice! Ive brought in Watson for Moloney this week, with still over 100k in the bank. This gives me 6 players on field not playing, even after subbing in my emergencies. My rival, whom I am facing this week, also has 6 on field not playing, so it is even now. I wouldve had 7 not playing if I hadnt made a trade this week, so I personally think I made the right decision.

  12. Papaneri says:

    Have both mundy & fyfe…was thinking of trading mundy but Freo's last 4 games are gold…do I not upgrade him to an ultra premium for that reason? Do I have a heavy midfield & keep him on the bench until then? Leaning towards keeping him but so un-sure….help needed community?!

    • Logan says:

      Good question. Hold, you got him in for a reason and he has scored relatively consistently for his price tag. IMO, no such thing as a heavy midfield (strongest scoring avenue). Just concerned that you have (or are considering) a $500k player on the bench if that's indeed what you meant. Money could be used to fill your other areas with prems.

      • Papaneri says:

        Thanks mate! Think I'll keep him but if he gets injured or something my plan goes out the window. Just wanted my starting mids full of ultra prems (wanted to eventually trade mundy) but ill probably just save that cash for elsewhere! Those last 4 games are just too good

    • Jett says:

      Keep Mundy. great player that scores very well for his price tag

  13. Remy says:

    If Joe Daniher plays is he a good dowgrade option for Neade?

    • Logan says:

      You can bet your sweet $ Joe Palak Paneer will; seen him play and he's a champion in the making. But its too early to burn a trade on him unless you have a glass ball.

      Maybe swap Neade to your mids & downgrade to T. Mitchell, K. Martin or Hrovat (in that order of precedence for me).

  14. Sloan says:

    Bringing Barlow in next week. Have Mundy. Thinking of upgrading Hooker for Duffman R13. Am I over-Freo'd? Friendly schedule just looks too nice.

    Thoughts, community?

    • Logan says:

      Good one mate. We needed to diversify our teams @ the start of the year to overcome our byes. With their conclusion, reckon your suggestion has merit. But note, this strategy increases your chance of improved scoring during the SC finals; but doesn't assure it (eg. Watson & Murphy). Good luck.

      • Sloan says:

        Well stated, Logan. I'm in trying to move up our ladder and feel everyone has Watson and Murphy and not the Freo gang. Roll of the dice for sure. Shooting for Jobe at some point. But need to rake the yard of the zeroes I picked in the beginning of the season (e.g. Curran).

        Thanks for your thoughts.

  15. Chris says:

    Finally happy with my midfield, what are your thoughts jock?

    Ablett, pendlebury, Watson, swan, swallow, Selwood, hanneberry, priddis
    My emergencies are viney and crouch, hopefully they go up in value but I will probably pinch Tom Mitchell

    Only thing I think that could be better is having either fyfe or Barlow but there isn't the room

    • Chris says:

      Also the only thing I've regretted is bringing in cloke instead of jimmy Bartel..
      For one, I now have 3 collingwood players and only 1 Geelong..
      And 2, cause I've come to the realization that cloke is gonna score high one week and low the next.. Had Bartel last year and didn't think he was that great but yeah.. He is haha

      • Logan says:

        My names not Jock, but sure he'll agree that you've got a ripper midfield. And btw, Bartel is a living legend …. champ through and through. I'm sure all SC coaches have at least 1 regret over the years; myself I have a cupboard full. Guess, what doesn't break you only makes you stronger.

  16. Rayza says:

    Hanneberry is a good player Chris but he wont win you a supercoach flag… Just not quite ultimate gun quality just yet. His quiet one's can really hurt.

  17. Sloan says:

    Jock's Robinson suggestion got me thinking. Leaning towards Bartel. Am I being an arse even considering Mitch? Money for kitty is great, sure. Reckon that Bartel will be the SC stud more times, though.

  18. Rocksta says:

    Hi All.

    Does anybody know the answer to this question: If my VC gets a good score, am I able to put the C on a Bye round player that I have on the field to get that VC score as the default Captain?
    I note that the Bye Round players I have on the ground do have a 'C' icon available but that just seems too easy.
    The answer to this question will determine whether I put the V on Watson or Ablett.
    Anybody?

  19. Rocksta says:

    BTW, I reckon Selwood is carrying a niggle and won't play this week, and has the bye to come next week.
    He will thus then come back fresh as a daisy and be back to his best come rd 13.
    Mick, best 2 Tight Arse Tuesday candidates yet- both guns and will pick up the pace in the run home.