DEFINING MOMENTS – Mick The Mad Irishman

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach by on May 3, 2013 • views: 1444

Supercoach strategy with MickCommunity, the time is upon us. We have now entered the most defining time period of the fantasy year, the time we bring in our first upgrade.

The time for corrective trading has passed and now the serious business of upgrading those cash cows is upon us. It is the most defining because the guys you chose to bring in now will shape how your team stands up against the very best. Chose the wrong upgrade and you will be left ruing the decision to bring them in, and watch on as the teams that brought in the correct (sometimes left field) players out score you week on week until the seasons end.

At the start of the year we all have grand ideas of what the best overall team will look like and we tend to look to upgrade to those perceived better players that we were unable to start with. For example I didn’t start this year with Franklin but have always thought I’d bring him in at some stage during the year. I have now built up enough cash that if I wanted to, I could upgrade a forward rookie to Franklin as my first upgrade. However this is something I won’t be doing, and not because Franklin is set for further price falls over the next couple of weeks, or because I’m worried about external factors like his contact saga. The reason I won’t be looking at Franklin as my first upgrade is because now is the time to pick up the less obvious upgrade target.

A player who is going to provide you with a Point of difference, a player who you are going to pick up now at their cheapest price for the year, ensuring that those that don’t chose him now will find it hard to bring him in at a later date.

I’m going to go back 12 months ago to give you a better understanding of the type of player I am looking for. At the start of the 2012 year not too many fantasy coaches would have thought that Dayne Beams would have finished in the top 7 forwards last year and a such not too many coaches looked to make him their first upgrade target.

I remember having an upgrade selection dilemma after round 7 last year where I was weighing up Dayne Beams and Jack Riewoldt. Beams was just finding good form at this point of the year after been given more rotations through the midfield since Luke Ball had gone down with injury in round 3. He was now averaging 97.6 and was priced reasonably due to his low scores in rounds 1 and 2.

Jack on the other hand was coming out of a period where he had a 29 and a 48 run through his 3 week rolling average and looked ripe for the taking at his bottom out price. The dilemma was do I spend a little bit more money and take a punt on a breakout contender or to I pick up a “known identity” at a fallen price who I can rely on to average out the season at 90+. I chose to take the conservative option and brought in the more proven fantasy scorer (granted only modest scorer) in Jack Riewoldt.

What transpired next was that Beams would go on to average 133 from this point on while Riewoldt averaged 99 until the end of the season. While a 99 point average was nothing to cry about from picking up Riewoldt at his cheapest, but I actually missed the boat on Beams and couldn’t afford to bring him in further down the line when he really started going off. I had the money in the bank to bring Beams in then and I chose not to and ultimately missed out on 510 points and one of the best unique players of 2012. For those reading this now that picked up Beams I am sure they will be recalling how Beams was the difference most weeks when they came up against someone who didn’t have him.

So Irish you mad B**tard who are you looking to bring in this week?

Andrew Walker
Average 115.4
Breakeven 58
Current Price $518,400
Priced to Average 100.8

So what makes Andrew such an intriguing prospect for me as my first upgrade. Well there are a few key indicators we should all look for when looking at a breakout contender.

  • Age: 20 to 22 according to Higgo’s Bell end, sorry Bell Curve http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2013/02/27/the-breakout-zone-20-22-years-of-age/
  • New Coach: Can often invigorate a player, whether they work harder to prove themselves to the new guy or just new ideas can freshen up players and give them a new lease of life. The proverb that a change is as good as a rest.
  • New Club: Like the above (partially because with a new club comes a new coach) this often gives a player a new lease of life.
  • New Roll: A new roll that normally sees a player benefit from more possessions and thus more fantasy scoring points. These roles are normally a move to the midfield, wing or the rebounding half back.

Andrew Walkers ticks the box on two of the above, with a new coach in Mick Malthouse and a new role as the rebounding defender that rotates through the midfield. This last point is arguably the most important as it normally equates for the largest increase in a players average.

Mad Mick

Above is a table showing the key differentials from last season when Walker was playing as a forward and this season where he is playing as a rebounding defender. All the obvious stats are there, like the improved possession numbers but what is also pleasing is that there is an improvement in a couple of aspects that aren’t a guarantee of a position role.

Walker’s effective disposal numbers have increased by 9% which is showing he has a real poise for his new role. He is also spending a staggering 96% of time on ground which tells me a couple of things. One, Mick has great trust in him and two, he is resting forward instead of coming to the interchange which means he is getting opportunities to kick goals and thus continue to score fantasy points. In fact even though his role has changed he is only slightly down on his goal average from last year.

Now I know a lot of you who are reading this will still think that Andrew Walker is still a very risky pick but there is also another reason for why I want to get him in this week and that’s Carlton’s draw.

Over the next five rounds Carlton will be lining up against Melbourne, St Kilda, Port, Brisbane and GWS. This is the guy who has currently averaged 115 against Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and Adelaide so surely he can at least maintain that average over the next five weeks. My fear is that if I don’t get him this week I might be left in the same position I was in last year when I missed the boat on Beams and couldn’t afford him later on down the track. I also know that many of you will think that the boat has already sailed with Walker but If I can refer you to last year one last time when many thought the boat had sailed when Beams reached $520k too and yet he went on to price well over 600k.

Final Word

I really believe that the next 3 weeks will shape your fantasy year more than all the rest combined. Pick the correct upgrades now and you will be laughing all the way to that top four position you are chasing, or in some of our cases that 50k grand price. However it isn’t always the most obvious player that will think of and is often that left filed guy who you nearly got in.

Go on. Take the chance, and get them in. Who is your unique upgrade, the player that will make the difference for you ??

Stay tuned…

 

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mad as a cut snake – but one of the most developed Fantasy Football brains in Australia. Click here for more from the Mad Irishman

 

 

 

 

Comments (52)

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  1. choppers says:

    Damn you, Mick. He won't be a POD now, LOL! Good article and I agree 100% as I'm sure the other 9% who have him, agree too.

  2. @emhoy says:

    Great article I am looking at upgrading to Murphy and Scotland which means I will have 2 donuts in my backline but I don't want to change my strategy for 1 week of issues. This will either make or break my team over next 3 weeks.

  3. Phong says:

    Another brilliant article. Picking the right premiums at good price is the key to success. I picked up Andrew Walker a couple of weeks ago, he's been fantastic.

    I am looking at other players that have had a couple of low scores due to injuries or poor early season form, but a seasoned performers.
    E.g
    a) Jolly, injured after scoring just 1 point against Carlton in round 2, should drop to $400-$420k in the next couple of weeks.
    b) Priddis, scored just 5 points before getting concussion.
    c) Judd, out of the ordinary low score of 60 in round 4 against Eagles and only averaging 98.4, but has never been below 104 per season in past 8 seasons.

  4. @TheDishD says:

    Pure Gold from the mad Mick, quality article once again, good luck for the round of Chaos :)

  5. Maxy says:

    Would love to be in a position to bring Walker in but alas my backline with Pittard, Gibbs, Goodes and Frost all not playing needs some serious love.

    Have rolled with Dixon and Gawn for Pittard and S Jacobs. Reluctant with Jacobs but need the coin.

  6. Jason says:

    Think I struck the right balance between getting rid of doughnuts and cash generation. Got rid of Crouch and Pittard, picked up Kerridge and Sierrakowski. Just hope Sierrakowski actually plays.

    Made about $200k and only have the one doughnut now in Heppell.

  7. Jake says:

    whats more important. getting watson now or getting walker?

  8. tim says:

    Walker is almost 27. Not sure why you reference the 20-22 breakout zone

    • Birch's Buddy says:

      Background info.

    • aaa says:

      he listed all factors you should look at when looking at a breakout player, and as he said if you actually read it, Walker has two of these boxes ticked.

  9. THE SALTSHAKERS says:

    great work mick…quality analysis

  10. Birch's Buddy says:

    Yep, I was thinking about Walker too. My way of thinking is that I'm just going to forget about the defensive problems and just let it happen (2 donuts). However, I can upgrade Dwyer to Walker, leaving me 30k and 22 trades. I plan to downgrade to Lonergan and maybe Staker/Laird/Docherty next week, allowing me to upgrade Neade to a 495-500k Buddy in two weeks. Would leave me with 18 trades altogether, but still on course for 8 trades for the finals. What do you think?

  11. THE SALTSHAKERS says:

    with the extra trades im following a stepping stone strat with some underpriced mid pricers…so one to get em in and two trades to upgrade – same with bottomed out players – so looking at gray ball definetly all year…and ellis winderlich if no suitable downgrades – as well as fallen prems in daisy priddis — i think stevie j is the best option along with walker but ive got defence holes that need patching – wondering if hartlett is this years beams? needs more footy IMO but scoring well hence the beams call.

    Wish freo didnt appeal Fyfe charge he is flying…

  12. Liam says:

    Great article, would love to bring walker in but struggling down back as I don't have Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Pttard or Frost playing. I don't have a huge game this round so not worrying about 2 or 3 not playing. Would love some feedback on these 2 trades.
    Out-Blicavs, In-Gawn. Just generating a bit more cash
    Out-Pittard, In-Hartlett/Hibberd/Goddard or any other suggestions that you might have.
    Thanks

  13. The Old Dylan says:

    Great article Mick! I think I will get walker in next week, as I am still trying to generate some cash. I have traded Blicavs down to Gawn, and Dwyer down to Kerridge. I don't want to miss out on the bubble boys! I was looking at Docherty or laird depending on who was named, but neither named makes it easy! I was also tossing up between paparone and kerridge, but have gone Kerridge since he is named on the field.

    This means I will have to eat two doughnuts in defence, but three of my five leagues should be easy wins regardless, and the other two have the same doughnuts so I may just sneak in…

    • The Old Dylan says:

      I considered trading out viney, swinging gibbs/heppel to mid, trading out pittard and bringing in birchall, but that means i miss out on bubble boys, so not too keen on that! will start to build over the next few weeks

  14. crabby says:

    out of dixon, hartlett, shaw, watson and walker- who do you think would be the best to get in this week?

  15. [email protected] k1Ng says:

    Hey mate!

    Thoughts on Pittard to H.Shaw? or too early too fold Pittard??

  16. Jag says:

    trading pittard out, gonna dip into the war chest a bit…
    who to bring in? dixon or hibberd? or swing goddard into the backline and bring in hannebery?

  17. Sully says:

    pittard to vlaustin?

    thoughts

  18. Joseph says:

    Who do I trade Gibbs or goodes or both?? I have hepple and Docherty also.

  19. Deanbartel says:

    Shuey is the best POD for mine. Hasn't really gone up in price yet and is playing some MASSIVE halfs and then falling off. As the season goes on and WCE pick it up (especially with Nic Nat back now), Shuey will average 120 from now on I reckon.

  20. dools says:

    God damn it Mick! I had him until now as a new trade completed yesterday Now I have to change again…..Mundy maybe
    Once again you have Gazumpped me Now every one will be on th e Walker train
    Me I have just hopped off ….I hope he decapatates himself running thru the banner
    ( Jesting )
    Nice article Mick can you please e-mail me when you are going to destroy Krakenkat1 Stratagy LOL
    Your pal in SC
    Dools

  21. THESALTSHAKERS says:

    Can get in Shaw and keep $65k for maybe Robbie Gray next week – vs straight up to Hartlett with loose change (who I'm waiting to have a bad game).

    Micko….if you're there mate – what do you reckon?

  22. ABC says:

    Hmmm great article Mick. Definitely something to think about.
    Who's more important to get in for that waste of space Jarryd Roughead this week:

    T/U: Stevie J
    T/D: Andrew Walker

  23. Joseph says:

    Is it worth trading Gibbs or just have two donuts??

  24. Gillie4 says:

    Fantastic Stuff!!!

  25. Zman says:

    Great article Mick!

    First timer so I've been caught between getting the premium upgrade and saving the cash. This week in fact. Was going to go Pittard for Ellis..then save cash for bigger buys). Gut (with help from a few here) pushed for Shaw. Less money but great player (who I hope finishes strong like Beams).

  26. Gillie4 says:

    Neade to Walker
    Pittard to Clarke
    Thoughts?
    Was going to go Dwyer to Walker but fell 7,000 short!

  27. @Jacko2128 says:

    Get A. walker or stevie J in this week??

  28. Callum says:

    Is it wise to have gaj as a captain this week, or will he be tagged by crowley? i will have the loop on pendles.

  29. Michael says:

    Lenny Hayes late out tonight folks, injured in warmup.

  30. BBE says:

    Hey Com
    Wondering is it worth taking 2 donuts or trading Goodes to Birchall/ Hanley/ Hartlett/ Shaw
    Bear in mind Hartlett's BE is 37 and if i'm going to bring him in in must be now.
    Cheers.

  31. john says:

    should i trade hutchins or cop a zero? i only have 106k in bank. was thinking of trading hutchins to cameron oshea
    thoughts?

    • depends on how much you need those extra 80 points .. assuming O'Shea hits that

      Remember that's one trade = 80 points and you have got to ask yourself is it worth it

      We do have more trades this year but they might be better sent come finals

      Id say cop the doughnut .. but you better know how your team is shaping up

  32. Henry says:

    Made a decision to cop short term pain (ie one donut with a chance of more, depending on late changes) to make changes for the future. So out Brown & Dwyer, in Hartlett & Paparone, changes that had to be made as those 2 cows were mooing loudly. Turns out that in all but one of my 5 leagues my opponents were worse hit by the round 6 carnage than I was, so very happy with the decision.

  33. Michael C says:

    Decided to take Jeff Garlett as a POD. Looks a goer for the next few weeks for many of the reasons posted in your article. Hopefully he's the unexpected boom player to take me over the top.

  34. Nanna says:

    any views on emerging rookies for post the bye rounds? obviously starting to upgrade those ripe rookies, but are there going to be any more playing rookies coming into range after the next half dozen rounds?

    don't want to be downgrading to non-playing rookies if i don't have to. want the coverage in case there is a repeat of round 'defence carnage' in the form of, dare i say it, 'midfield carnage'!!

  35. Westy says:

    Brought in Ryan Lester for a huge POD – 137 points later, I'm a happy camper!

  36. alex says:

    I really think daisy is a must have. For 420K he is a steal.

  37. boostboy76 says:

    Daisy definitely. Shaw and Scotland also well priced ATM.