SUCKED IN – Mick The Mad Irishman

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman, Supercoach by on April 24, 2013 • views: 1323

Supercoach strategy with MickHello again community. I think for the most of us our teams outputs were down on the first three rounds. For me personally I had my worst week of season to date with my first sub 2200 score and – well –  I only have myself to blame.

In last week’s article I talked about the “Strategic Doughnut” and after thinking long and hard about it I reversed my trades before lockout and chose not to bring in a “Strategic Doughnut” in my midfield. Of course we all know what happened next, O’Meara goes and gets 100 points and is stuck on my bench, while I look on in horror as Viney SPUDS it up on Sunday afternoon to come out with a terrifyingly low score of 9. Another 91 points I have missed out on. If I could offer you one piece of advice from all this: ALWAYS GO WITH YOUR GUT FEELING. Even if your gut feeling turns out to be wrong, it’s a better feeling having gone for it and failed than by letting it go and watching it succeed.

So what is my gut feeling for this week? Well after being up and about on the forums I have noticed a lot of trade talk regarding two of the best performing players of round four. And – well – I thought I’d ask the question: Are we getting “Sucked In”? One of the biggest mistakes we make as coaches (and I have touched on this in previous articles) is chasing last week’s points. We get drawn to the big scores of the players we don’t have in our teams. We feel we are missing out and we get sucked into thinking we must jump on before we miss out on any more scores like the ones we have missed. However – there is the big question we don’t ask ourselves in this decision process; will there be any more scores like this? I’ll go through that thought process now, starting with the player of the round, Travis Cloke.

Travis Cloke

Round 4 Score 195
Average 124.8
Breakeven -21
Current Price $515,900 
Priced to Average 96 

Travis had a field day against Richmond on the weekend; helped in a small part to Alex Rance having arguably his worst day in the yellow and black. Easy to say this now but I think if Hardwick could go back he would have moved Chaplin onto him at halftime.

However credit where credit is due. Cloke was awesome, booting his highest ever goal tally of 7 along with 20 possessions of which 12 were contested, 14 marks of which 7 were contested and had two score assists for a whopping 195 Supercoach points.

When you read those stats out it is easy to see how he scored so high but the question begs: is this something we can expect to see again? We all know Cloke was clearly affected by the ongoing contract distraction of last year so for that purpose I am going to ignore his stats from last season and only focus on the stats from the previous two years to draw comparison:

Stats for Season

2010

2011

Round 4 2013

Supercoach Average 90.7 97.7 195
Kicks Per Game 11.1 12.6 17
Handballs Per Game 4.2 3.0 3
Disposals Per Game 15.2 15.6 20
Marks Per Game 7.1 7.7 14
 
Contested Marks Per Game 2.8 3.8 7
Goals Per Game 1.6 2.8 7
Behinds Per Game 1.7 1.9 2
Tackles Per Game 2.3 2.8 2
Contested Possessions Per Game 7.5 8.2 14
Uncontested Possessions Per Game 8.0 7.5 8
Effective Disposals % Per Game 64.5% 63.5% 85%
Clangers Per Game 1.9 2.8 3

So as you can see every key Supercoach scoring parameter was well up on his average from his best two Supercoach years of 2010 and 2011. What this tells me is that round 4 is more of an exception rather than a rule. With this massive score pushing up Cloke’s average to 124.8 it could be very easy to get sucked into thinking that Cloke is great value for money at present and could continue to average those numbers for the rest of the year.

I think this is extremely unlikely and from this point the absolute best I can see Cloke averaging from rounds 5 through to 23 is 105 points per game. So for those that are thinking of bringing him in this week you must be aware that you have missed his biggest score of the year and that his current average is very much inflated.

However in saying all that, Cloke is currently priced at $515,900, which based on the start of the year value system is priced to average 96 points per game. If you do think that he will average more than this from now on then there is a strong argument to get him in now.

Mick’s Gut Feeling

His top average is 97.7 points in 2011 which included a 6 goals 4 behinds and 154 supercaoch game, which tells me he has scored big in the past and still averaged modestly. Even if he improves his average this year to something like 105 points per game by seasons end, this will mean that he will only average 100.6 per game from here on out. I even think this might be pushing it and I won’t be jumping on.

Grant Birchall

Round 4 Score 152
Average 127.5
Breakeven 74
Current Price $563,400 
Priced to Average 105 

Birchall is a different prospect to Travis Cloke because even though round four provided his biggest score for the year he has also consistently scored big every round so far with 122, 126, 110 and 152. For this reason I have compared Birchall’s stats for this year so far with his averages over the last three seasons.

Stats for Season

2010

2011

2012

2013 so far

Supercoach Average 79.5 94.0 94.6 127.5
Kicks Per Game 11.0 14.3 13.7 21
Handballs Per Game 8.6 9.4 9.4 10.2
Disposals Per Game 19.6 23.8 23.1 31.2
Marks Per Game 5.4 7.2 5.9 7.2
Contested Marks Per Game 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8
Goals Per Game 0.2 0.1 0.4 1
Behinds Per Game 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
Tackles Per Game 2.8 1.6 1.6 2.2
Contested Possessions Per Game 4.9 5.8 6.4 6
Uncontested Possessions Per Game 14.4 17.5 16.4 23.5
Effective Disposals % Per Game 80.1% 81.1% 84.4% 83.3%
Clangers Per Game 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.8

Two stats jump out at me from this comparison. So far this season Birchall has simply being getting more of the ball and he has managed to hit the scoreboard. He has averaged over 8 more disposals per game and because he has always been so efficient with his disposal, this equates to a substantial increase in Supercoach points. The fact that he is also scoring goals, where in previous seasons you were more likely to see a Melbourne victory than a Birchall goal (sorry dees fans), is also helping his improved output.

I think the reason is clear why Birchall is getting more of the ball this season. The injury to Suckling in the preseason has meant that instead of sharing the rebounding roll with Suckling he has now become the Hawks main avenue out of defence. I was very much aware of this dynamic when selecting my side and yet I still chose not to put him in my side. Why? Well it has baffled me to date and especially against the defensive minded Ross Lyon’s Fremantle last weekend, why the first thing you would do every week is put a hard forward tag on Birchall? Limit Birchalls influence on the game and you will severely limit the Hawks ability to rebound. I am no AFL coach but surely this must be something that the likes of North’s, Adelaide’s and Sydney’s coaches will be looking at on current form, if it’s not something that should already have been obvious.

Birchall reminds me a little like what happened with Jed Adcock in 2011. Brisbane had a run of injuries and Adcock was pushed into the middle at the start of the year. After starting the year with scores of 71, 111, 143, 127 and 100, I got sucked in. I brought him in in round 6 where he would go on to average 83.8 for the rest of the season as he started to pick up a tag when running through the middle.

Birchall will most definitely be in the top 6 averaging defenders for the year as he currently is the top defender averaging 127.5 points per game. I think this is extremely unlikely that Birchall will continue to average anywhere near those sort of numbers for the rest of the year and from this point the absolute best I can see Birchall averaging from rounds 5 through to 23 is 100 points per game.

For those who currently own him you should be extremely happy that you have picked up his huge scores to date but for those that are thinking of bringing him in this week you must be aware that you have missed four of his biggest scores and that his current average is very much inflated.

Birchall is currently priced at $563,400, which based on the start of the year value system is priced to average 105 AFL Supercoach points per game. I can’t say with any great confidence that he will average that from now until the end of the season and even though his breakeven is reasonably low I believe he is currently overpriced.

Mick’s Gut Feeling

The tag is coming. Very interested to see how his disposal numbers will be affected by Brain Lake coming into the team. At his current price there are enough doubts to keep me away. Am sure he will have low scores like the 68, 71, 75, 66 and 55 he had last season and once a few of them run through his rolling average I will consider bringing him in at a lower price. Anything over 500k is too pricey for a defender at this stage of the year. If you want a defender for this round Hartlett is your man. Over 70k cheaper and more likely to average more than Birchall from this point on.

I would love to be able to go through a few more players that are currently out performing their previous bests and have climbed up into the Super Elite bracket after 4 rounds, however I am off to NZ tomorrow (Wednesday) to watch Jock’s beloved Saints take on Sydney on Thursday, so it’s an early night for me. If you would like a second option on the likes of Cornes, Westhoff, McEvoy, Boak, Minson or any other high performing player if you fear you may be getting “Sucked In” just leave me a message in the comments and I’ll do my best to get back to you.

Final Word

Now community those are just my gut feeling (based on solid statistical information of course), and if I have ever learned one thing from this last week in this wonderful game, is to back yourself in and stick with your gut feeling. So if any of you have a different gut feeling on either Cloke or Birchall, go with it.
Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mad as a cut snake – but one of the most developed Fantasy Football brains in Australia. Click here for more from the Mad Irishman

 

 

 

 

Comments (120)

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  1. Nateo says:

    Hmm was locked for birchall trade, but when lake comes in got me thinking about it might pass on him this week

    • Nateo, In the interest of all fairness there is always two sides to any tale. I will refer you to a comment from Dashmasha

      "HAWTHORN, I know Hawthorn. Because of what happened last year, Birchall has learned how to deal with a tag. They have things they do with other players to break tags. ROSS LYON, even said they TRIED to curb his influence (look at his press conference after the game), but they couldn't. You wonder why coaches aren't putting the hard tag on every week, it's because they can leave themselves and their structures lacking in certain areas, and with Hawthorn being the best attacking team, can potentially really hurt themselves. They try to back their players to win clearances in the center and back their own set-ups. They want to play their own style, NOT adapt to the way the other team is playing. CAN a player not learn or improve on last year. I know it's a gut feeling, but my gut feeling says you're dead wrong on Birchall. Lake coming in won't hurt a damn thing either. Obviously people had a GUT FEELING about trading in Birchall, they then read this article, and now have changed their original gut feeling. See what's wrong here""

      Now what is your gut telling you – if you like Birchall and think he will continue his 120+ average then jump on now .. I'm still running with my gut on this one.

  2. udi says:

    hi mick / community

    is it time to trade viney for evans?? he had got the highest BE out of all my rookies
    cheers

    • James says:

      I've made that very same trade myself this week. He's every chance to go up again this week, but even with a score of 100 his price increase will be a fraction of that of Evans will (even if he scores moderately).

    • Shaneoo88 says:

      Do you have any mid rookies who are not playing? I did Kane Mitchell of Evans

      • udi says:

        thanks james. all my rookies are playing shane. what do u think shane. is it worth trading viney?? i m drifting towards viney to evans

        • Shaneoo88 says:

          Yes, there is merit to that trade if every other rookie is currently active. Evans doesn't seem like a guy who should be in the team long term, so Viney to Evans is a good pathway to a premium mid upgrade

    • Spifflicator says:

      Viney is very interesting ATM.

      According to the Age journos he has been suffering from an ankle problem for two weeks before being subbed out on the weekend with an obvious problem. SO on one hand his lower scores are due to an injury and I would expect his output to go up once he is over it.

      The problem is he may well now miss at least a week, possibly 2 or 3, as I doubt MFC will risk his injury getting worse.

      My tip if he is not named tomorrow, trade him down to Mayes or Evans.

      • udi says:

        thanks guys. i ll be only doing 1 trade this week. if anyones interested robby grays price will go down after his first 3 games. cant recall how good he was during the last 2 – 3 seasons.

      • udi says:

        crouch out…. hammy… now the question is crouch or viney??

  3. Smashing article Irish!!!

  4. thomasjmcd says:

    Mick, trading out Ryder for a ruckman this week. Have McEvoy at the moment but not sure about him. Thinking Goldstein might be a better option, or someone else? Thoughts? Thanks Mick.

    • Honestly I think Ruck men are the hardest to predict – their scoring system for SC rewards them two fold – any ruckman that can have 30hitouts and pick up 10-15 possessions will score well. McEvoy is doing just that and looks to be in great form, so I'd suggest he is a good option if you have the coin.

      Hope that helps

    • Helmet says:

      I have no stats to back this with but I reckon the scoring potential of all ruckmen has dropped this year with changes to how the game is being umpired the main reason. For mine, more flowing play and less stoppages are hindering their scoring opportunities with the added speed also stopping them from getting forward as often to kick goals. They don't really seem to be pulling out as many of the massive scores ruckmen were getting last year.

  5. Eugene says:

    I was one step away from pulling that trigger in trading Duff to Birch… Then I saw this article and got me thinking.
    So you reckon Hartlett is a better option?

    • James says:

      Historically, Birchall has been a pretty solid choice anyway. Right now, I'd still pick him over Hartlett – I don't reckon either will continue to score they way they have been for the rest of the year, so personally I'd defer to the one with proven history. I guess it depends on whether you tend to err on the side of the conservative.

    • Shaneoo88 says:

      Birch over Duff…people are forgetting the easy schedule Port have had thus far, so Hartlett for me is more of a long term upgrade prospect.

    • Eugene, this might be a very controversial statement but I do think Hartlett is a better option for the season (provided he stays injury free). This is based on value at the moment as well as scoring. If both players average 100 pts from now until the end of the year then he is the cheaper of the two and therefore better value. I believe I will be able to pick up Birchall at a lower price later in the year and am willing to wait.

      Let it be clear I never said Birchall was a bad option, just not the best option in the back line at this stage of the year.

  6. Fabian says:

    Started with Birch, pretty happy I did. I'm not overly tempted by cloke, but then I find myself thinking that he may become one of the top 6 SC fwds this year.

    • Fabian – Great pick up having Birchall from the start. :)
      Cloke may very well finish in the top 6 but if you don't have him you have got to ask yourself if he will finish in the top 6 from this point on. Not convinced he will.

  7. SCaddict says:

    I already have Birch so will be trading in Hartlett this week. However if I had neither I would probably bring in Birch between the two. The Hawks draw really opens up in a few weeks so a lot of their stars will likely score big in those games against the likes of GWS, GC and the Dees. So this could be the last time you can grab him for less than $600K for quite some time.

    Also Hartlett still has a few question marks hanging over him like how will the Port midfield perform against the better teams as they have had a very soft run to date.

    Also will those problematic hammies hold up for an entire season?

    However as Mick says his pricing is very attractive this week so I'm going to roll the dice on these risks and get him in to my side.

  8. Dave ruddick says:

    Hi there Mick,
    With all seriousness this is one of the best articles every written on this site. Your research is gold!!! Clearly both players are playing out of their skin compared to the rest of their career…in my opinion a time to be cautious. Thanks again…Great work!!!

    • footyinme says:

      This is the way it is people:

      If you started with the likes of Birchall and Cloke hats off to you guys, really!

      but for those who didn't have them and wan't those guys purely because of their out put after 4 games your taking a big risk.

      Remember that after you trade one of these players into your side that they could score low this round and the next after making a statement like HEY DID YOU SEE ME CUT UP THE OPPOSITION, SEE HOW DEVASTATING I'AM . They will get stitched up and as tempting as it is right now to grab one of them you have to remember this is very likely to happen.

      what will they average even as short as the next 4 rounds? who knows.

  9. Shaneoo88 says:

    Going to use my cash cows to get Birchall next week to put next to Goddard, Gibbs, Heppel and Goodes.
    Right now I am tempted to upgrade Kennedy from Westcoast to Cloke because Cloke has a breakeven of -39 and usually plays very well against Essendon. If he keeps his form up I can keep him and if he starts to digress and can use him to get Franklin. M forward line right now is Kennedy, Lecras, Martin, Rockliff, Dwyer, neede, Rowe, Mcaffer.

  10. Stuart says:

    Needing a big gun forward choosing from Franklin , Cloke, Westhoff , Riewoldt . Which one is best option ??

    • SCaddict says:

      I would go Buddy. Most confident that he will finish a top 4 forward of those options.

      Cloke would then be my next selection.

      • Shaneoo88 says:

        Kennedy to Cloke, then later Lecras to Buddy is Cloke keeps his form up? Thoughts?

        • SCaddict says:

          I'm not sure on that one Shane. The Eagles do have some weak teams coming up that JJK and LeCras could really beat up on.

          I reckon it would be better if you could upgrade a rookie to Cloke although I realise it will cost you more cash obviously. Do you have any dud premiums that you could downgrade to a rookie to free up some cash?

          • Shaneoo88 says:

            Rockliff and Dusty, then it is Kennedy and Lecras then rookies Macaffer, Neade, Dwyer and Rowe. I only have $679k in the kitty at the moment

            • SCaddict says:

              Yeah I'd rather you use some that war chest to upgrade either Neade or Dwyer to Clokey if you really want him. That would be the making of a very solid forward line with LeCras, JJK and Cloke all still increasing in value.

              Then you can look to bring in Buddy later depending on how JJK and LeCras are performing over the next month.

              • Shaneoo88 says:

                Neade and Dwyer both have negative breakeven's, so I want to keep them for now. DO you think Dusty's value will change much by mid season? Could go Dusty for Cloke, then use one of those rookies to bring Dusty back in again later on…

                • SCaddict says:

                  That would be burning precious trades imo. I'm just not a fan of sideways trades like that or trading guys out and then back in to potentially make a little bit of cash.

                  Too much of a risk that the guy you trade out will outscore the one you bring in leading to buyer's remorse.

                  It may work out for you but not something I can personally recommend.

                  Anyway good luck in whatever decision you end up making as I don't think there is any more advice I can offer and perhaps you should get some other opinions.

                  • Shaneoo88 says:

                    I'd love other opinions…nobody seems to posting replies lol. I think I may just hold…thanks for all the advice

    • THESALTSHAKERS says:

      You could always look at Stokes from Geelong, playing great football, really down on his 2012 performance. Finding plenty of space, elusive and part of the chain across the middle of the ground that is taking them into attack so effortlessly – really willing himself into contests and has two good scores in his rolling 3 game avg so will go up in price – got Bulldogs this week should score freely

  11. geoffmack says:

    Hi Mick and community, Im trying to listen to my gut but am extremely nervous! Looking at getting rid of Mumford for Leuy and I love Hartlett who is set to explode in price and LeCras who is chugging along quite nicely at $404k. Only have $274k in kitty, my gut is saying dump Mummy for Leuy making $96K. Then a cash cow for either hartlett or lecras, Hartlett worries me with injury history but value will increase, and lecras same injury concern but value increase. Which one better value pick? HELP PLEASE!!

    • Shaneoo88 says:

      Yes, dump Mummy for Leuy and when Leuy reaches his pick value you can trade for the best available ruckman. You need to get more cash in the kitty. Hold onto Lecras for now as he has a low breakeven and unlike a Josh Kennedy from West Coast can score well when the Eagles get beaten.

      Luey for Mummy = YES!

      • geoffmack says:

        OK Thanks! At this stage of the season is it better to build war chest so only 1 trade this round leaving $370, or 2 trade: dump viney for Hartlett leaves $74k OR Dwyer for lecras leaves $199,600??

        • Shaneoo88 says:

          It all depends on your situation. I feel with my team that my premiums are putting up big numbers consistently and except for 2 all of my rookies are still generating cash so I can afford to make trades like Kane Mitchell for Evans. I would not dump Viney or Dwyer yet. TO be honest you should have made the Luey for Mummy trade last week as Luey was on the bubble going into last week.

          So personally, you need some more cash in the kitty right now…I have 679k in my kitty. Leave it at 1 trade this week then reasses with Viney then in my opinion.

          Don't make your decision based on my opinion alone, gets opinions from as many ppl as you can. Good luck!

          • geoffmack says:

            Had to dump Embley last week got Mullet in and dumped Zorko for Hanley, wished I hadnt!!! Anywho hindsight is wonderful. I like lecras at his price but I may have to settle with one trade and build up warchest and take it slowly but surely.

  12. dmac says:

    Mick great article once again…setting a new standard for SC analysis! Would love your thoughts on Cornes. We all know he can't keep this run of scoring up but would you agree he could settle to a 110-115 ave over the year?

  13. Dashmasha says:

    HAWTHORN, I know Hawthorn. Because of what happened last year, Birchall has learned how to deal with a tag. They have things they do with other players to break tags. ROSS LYON, even said they TRIED to curb his influence (look at his press conference after the game), but they couldn't. You wonder why coaches aren't putting the hard tag on every week, it's because they can leave themselves and their structures lacking in certain areas, and with Hawthorn being the best attacking team, can potentially really hurt themselves. They try to back their players to win clearances in the center and back their own set-ups. They want to play their own style, NOT adapt to the way the other team is playing. CAN a player not learn or improve on last year. I know it's a gut feeling, but my gut feeling says you're dead wrong on Birchall. Lake coming in won't hurt a damn thing either. Obviously people had a GUT FEELING about trading in Birchall, they then read this article, and now have changed their original gut feeling. See what's wrong here.

    • pdid says:

      well said. one of the only things i've ever read on this website that is correct. and on to Hartlett, seriously, why would you put a player in who only averages 100 vs 3 teams, gold coast, st kilda, and sydney? ports draw getting infinitely harder for the rest of the year now, rather than trading in hartlett, i'd be waiting with whoever you are thinking of trading now for heath shaw to drop another 50k and lock down a proven point scorer. Hartlett. no..

      • Good Day Pdid,

        Not quite sure what you are meaning by "one of the only things i've ever read on this website that is correct", so i'll assume no offence intended ;)

        Again this is a game of options and it would be a very boring game if we all shared the same views. I'm sticking with my gut feeling on Hartlett – I will grant you that the worry I would have with Hartlett isn't his scoring against the harder teams but his injury history. Honestly think people are still underestimating how strong Port's midfield is.

        Shaw is however looking very tempting and if you can hols for a week or two then he too is an excellent choice.

    • Dashmasha, great alternative point of view – This game is all about options and I am never one to say I am right and you are wrong. I hope you don't mind but I have reused this comment to provide a different argument for a poster who was unsure on bringing Birch in. Now he will have two gut feeling to make his mind up on.

      To answer some of your question, of coarse players can improve on their personal bests. I am not doubting that but what I was trying to say is that by bringing him now you will have missed four of his largest scores. I'll put the question to you, do you think he will go the whole year without the low scores that he has experienced in other years ??

      • Dashmasha says:

        Yeah no worries mate. I LOVE ALL the articles on your page. All you guys are my favourite to read and listen to. I'm confident of Sam Mitchel and Birchall.

        Collingwood had success last year in tagging Birchall and we still smashed them in that game, albeit with Suckling being more successful, so why didn't they put a hard tag on him this year when we played Collingwood in round 3? It must baffle peoples minds, but it is quite simple really. They know IF they can actually stop him, then someone like Hodge or Burgoyne playing off half-back will just take up the slack and they will still get scored heavily upon.
        Some coaches may opt with putting a hard tag on him this year, but you can't tag every great player, sometimes you just have to back yourselves in.
        Ross Lyon moved a tag to Birchall in the 2nd half, after Birchall got 20 possessions in the first half. In the 2nd, he still got 17. It's easy for me to say Birchall is the one, because i got him in before round 1. I don't think people should make stupid moves just to get him in (like sideways trading Gibbs to Birchall), but if you got some cash, you could upgrade a stevenson or Pittard to get Birchall in. I don't think he will average a 120, but I really believe he will average a 110 at least. I don't think his price will drop. Hawthorn have had the toughest start to a season that any team has had. After the next 3, Hawks have GWS,Melb,Gold Coast. Imagine what Birchall will do to those teams. Birchall has talked about how after the tagging games last year, that they have ways of dealing with taggers. For example, in the 2nd half of the Freo game, Birchall started at the center bounce a few times. People scratch their heads and wonder why coaches haven't hard tagged him, even after round 1, even after the Pies had success in curbing HIS game last year. Will it stop Hawthorn winning? I think not, other players like Hodge and Burgoyne play a lot across half back. Other teams can't stop everyone coming out of halfback and I think they know that, which is why not a lot of teams try to stop him, because it just doesn't help their team to win or help their processes. Plus Birchall is just plain better than he was last year, and last year he was All-Australian.

  14. footyinme says:

    This is the way it is people:

    If you started with the likes of Birchall and Cloke hats off to you guys, really!

    but for those who didn't have them and wan't those guys purely because of their out put after 4 games your taking a big risk.

    Remember that after you trade one of these players into your side that they could score low this round and the next after making a statement like HEY DID YOU SEE ME CUT UP THE OPPOSITION, SEE HOW DEVASTATING I'AM . They will get stitched up and as tempting as it is right now to grab one of them you have to remember this is very likely to happen.

    what will they average even as short as the next 4 rounds? who knows.

  15. Deanbartel says:

    Sorry Mick, you're a champ but I disagree. Hawthorn have played some decent competition first up, and Freo actually applied the tag on Birchall 2nd half to which he went on and amassed 20 disposals. He's going to slaughter the weaker competition and turn out some more 120+'s this year

    Also re: Hartlett. Was tagged already and scored 34 or something? Not sure how you can justify him being a better pick

    • Don't be sorry Deanbartel,

      As I have said in a few of my reply's this is a game of options and I won't be shouting out "you're wrong, i'm right"

      Back yourself in and jump on Birchall – i'll be backing myself in and passing for this round.

      However I never once said he is not a good option but i'll wait and pick him up after he scores a 55. Has had three or more scores under 70 in the last three years. I'll wait for one or two of them to roll through his rolling average before I snag him.

      • Deanbartel says:

        I'll defs be eating my words when he scores 60 this week, haha :p

        Have a question for you. I've traded Stevenson to Birchall which I'm content with. The other trade I'm looking at is Macaffer (assuming he will be dropped this week or next…). Is he too cheap to upgrade or should I just pull the trigger and bring Stokes in for him. Macaffer is not going to make me any money on the sidelines and I will still have $320,000 in my bank AFTER the birchall + stokes upgrade.

      • Deanbartel says:

        Also having 320k AFTER 2 upgrades, I think I'll be in a very good position money-wise

  16. spinnerau1 says:

    Top stuff Irish!
    I've been debating with myself for 2 day on trading a cash cow or 2 as well as looking at getting Birch into my team. I'm still thinking of a trade or 2 (with 27 left) as I feel Im still a 110 point player or 2 short especially in the Mid (4) and ruck (0)

    With last weeks score of 2217 (which I was happy with as it was a winning score) I still dont feel comfortable that it is a strong enough score.

    Zorko is worry for me….. The popular word is that he (like Heath Shaw) will come good……but I'm seriously thinking about trading him out for Buddy.

    Viney and Kommer…..Hmmmmmmmm, between the 2 of them I've made $135,900…….Gotta be happy with that! BUT…do i slaughter them now and pick up a couple more cheapie rookies on the bubble??

    What to do, what to do……Ohhhhhhhhh Supercoach thoust are a heartless beast!!

    Thoughts and suggestions are, as always, greatly appreciated!!

    "Out Pick, Out Play, Out Score"!!!

    • Shaneoo88 says:

      Kommer for Evans from Melbourne is a great trade to make. I would hold Viney for one more week and then reassess

      • THESALTSHAKERS says:

        Why Kommer a great trade to make? The boy has been one of Essendons best competitors around the contest. Has 92 in his avg and I believe will slot back into the side with Gumbleton inj – he hasn't put a foot wrong so far. If he's not named next week or cops the vest then re-assess

        • THESALTSHAKERS says:

          *92 score in his rolling avg

        • Shaneoo88 says:

          The guy has been suspended and is sitting 2 more games. Trade him out for Evans, then when Kommer comes back you trade him back in for a rookie is you feel has reached their ceiling.

          Approx you can get money in the kitty, get a price rise from Evans, then save more money by downgrade Viney for example for Kommer. Kommer is not even a guarantee to get back into an Essendon team that is flying right now. He may have to play in the VFL to get back into the best 22 lol.

          • THESALTSHAKERS says:

            Kommer only copped 2 weeks, set to make $36k and will have 92 in his scores for the 2 games after…did you watch any of his games this season? First up playing forward 16disp and a couple of snaggers, came on week later under the vest and made instant impact, then was OUTSTANDING against Freo and helped them get back into the game? by holding on for another week you get to see how highly Essendon rate him in the contest. If he cops the vest then dish him off – sure you miss out on evans cash but you'll get it elsewhere with your trade in the year I doubt he will score that highly again. Even his cousin on Supercoach talk chipped in to say he's a great lad but hardly SC relevant – your team your call bud – but I reckon Caff to Mayes is a better trade, the kids a gun! watch his youtube highlights vids, absolutely starred in the SA u/18 team and Brissy's prize recruit taken just after Wines at pick 8

            • THESALTSHAKERS says:

              Caff will find it harder getting a game than Kommer IMO and will see plenty more vest time. Kraker 36 disposals in the twos, didak kicked 3.4 off 16 disposals same game. Daisy wont get the vest for too much longer. When you've got the likes of Dwyer racking up possies and excellent use of the footy and gun rookie in Ben Kennedy waiting in the wings spots at Collingwood (bar injuries) will be hard to come by especially up forward

            • spinnerau1 says:

              Brad Crouch out with a Hammy….well this is going to force my hand….no choice now BUT to offload Viney or Kommer, otherwise Im down a starting mid. :/

            • Shaneoo88 says:

              Yes I did watch his games…I follow Essendon and am well aware of how many players on the outside are playing well who are able to come in. Hurley, Ryder and Fletcher will go straight in…Daniher is ready to play, Jetta, NLM, Crameri etc. He is not a guarantee to get straight in after sitting out with his suspension. He will most likely have to play in the 2's to re-earn his spot.

  17. Eugene says:

    Brad Crouch is out with a hammy!!!

  18. SammyC says:

    Well I had kommer as my "doughnut" and O'Meara on the bench as an EMG. so luckly from me it worked.

  19. Trent says:

    I really need a GUN! Not sure if to go for sellwood in the middle, birchall of hartlett up back or cloke in the forward line… Thoughts anyone?

    • Shaneoo88 says:

      what premiums do you have in the middle? Upgrading in the middle is my last priority right now. I would like to get my rucks, fwd's and backs set first. Selwood is my first upgrade target in the middle however.

      If you are not like me and have less than 5 premiums mids, then your priorities should be different.

      • Trent says:

        Thanks, good advice, Well I have Ablett, Pendles, Kennedy, Fyfe and stupidly traded out dangerfield for Hodge this week… Im thinking of going for birchall, wait and see how cloke goes…?

  20. THESALTSHAKERS says:

    Mick I believe you are right in comparing one game vs a season average for a reason not to trade – however that's not an apples to apples comparison with Cloke. I understand your point in chasing points which you are trying to make with these comparisons. I do however feel both players are in career best form, especially Birchall, his run, give and gets, demanding the footy of his team mates has resulted in leather poisoning and so there is a good case to chase them before they go up, on current pricing they would still hold value and solid average over the year. If people are in a position to get them due to war chest or another player underperforming then I'd do so without hesitation. If not THEN I wouldn't move heaven and earth to get them, rather wait for your cows to moo a little. In Clokes case his avg against essendon is his highest, so he always plays well against them but coming up against highly rated Carlisle who is a tall, big bodied defender, long reach and quick across the turf. Should be interesting contest! By the way mate I refrained from grabbing Hodge last week and was pretty happy I jumped on Wingard instead which meant I was growing my score not merely moving money between the lines as I would have done to get Hodge…which I feel many people may do this week to get onto one of these two champs. Good post all the same Mick, great to see some analysis instead of bandwagon posts which most sites seem to be dishing up. For me – I'll be upgrading Wingard to a proven 110+ player and wait for those fellas to come down closer to their avgs as my rookies ripen a little more

    • THESALTSHAKERS says:

      * that is if Wingard bottoms out – as is 112 avg so am in no rush. Am hoping it merges with Daisy's being a bargin and turning the corner

    • Always love your feedback Saltshakers,

      I knew comparing one round with a season average might have got a few comments but I just wanted people to see that this 195score is not something to expect regularly. I remember in 2010 Lindsay Thomas scored 217 and still averaged 61 for the year. Cloke will average 100+ but you have missed his biggest score.

      Birchall has a lot of people dismissing his past stats and my view at the moment. I do think he is a better option than Cloke but not worth moving heaven and earth to bring him in.

      Best of luck this round mate

  21. Callum says:

    REALLYneed some help, not sure what trades to make this round if any. I do want to bring in hartlett and mayes but who? Also i am going to keep crouch so dont say trade him out.

    DEF: Goddard(mid0, Gibbs(mid), Hepell(mid), Goodes(mid), Pittard, Stevenson, Heath, Terlich.

    MID: Ablett, Pendles, Danger, Parker, Fyfe, Moloney, O'meara, Crouch, Viney, Wines.

    RUCK: Jacobs, Leunberger, Blicavs(MID), Rowe(FWD)

    FWD: Cox(RUCK), Roughy(RUCK), Zorko(MID), Rockliff(MID), Kennedy, Dwyer(MID), Neade(MID), Macaffer.

    $176,000 in the kitty.
    24 Trades left

    Any help would be great.

  22. @eNgIeS says:

    Great article. I pondered about both, and while I agree with you about Cloke, I was set on getting Birchall in while getting out Duddfield to stop him from bleeding cash. This has given me food for thought.

  23. footyinme says:

    Can I just say this in relation to trading in Birchall if you do it please don't trade out Pearce Hanley if you have him. Seen allot of people asking if it's a good move……….
    come on guys

  24. cashcows says:

    Birchall also gets to be the main man as suckling is out, and now schoey (not sure on how long)

    Could be a handy get now i think!

  25. Tim says:

    Couch out. I see a Captain's Loophole coming on this weekend!

  26. SCaddict says:

    Looking forward to Jock's pearls of wisdom on the Supercoach Show tonight.

    Reckon they should dump Johno and get Jock, Higgo and Crouching to host that gig. Ratings would sky rocket as it's a pretty uninspired set-up they have right now.

  27. jimbotraralgon says:

    decided against the duffield to birchal trade this week.

    I am hoping stevenson and pittard increase more than $20k over birchal’s rise so I can then go one of those port boys to birchal.

    good idea or silly?

  28. jimbotraralgon says:

    is docherty on the bubble this week or next?

  29. Griffo says:

    Got Mitchell / viney / crouch so need to trade out Mitchell to avoid a donut.
    Who to bring in though.
    Mayes?
    Dureya?
    Or wright (def) & move a mid/def to mids?
    Thoughts anyone.

  30. Pete says:

    I am locking Birchall

    You all can leave him, he will be a POD for me!

  31. Callum says:

    Keep parker or trade him for hartlett? Parkers BE is 103 and that 43 will be there next three weeks, probably going to only drop. Any thoughts?

  32. Zman says:

    Wow! Great article. And seemed to talk to me as I was thinking of making BOTH trades.

    Need points. Hanley is my top scoring def…and out. Poor fwd scoring. Gut is telling me this…

    Gibbs for Hurn
    Rioli or Rockliff for Jetta

    Thoughts.

  33. FrontPocket says:

    My gut feel is that this year Travis Cloke will be in the top 6 forwards. I think Cloke is conforming to the old rule that key position players take a number of years to reach their peak. Like Tom Hawkins, many of us were wondering whether he'd ever get there. Last week is obviously an anomaly, BUT the ability to tear a game apart the way he did last week means that he's stepped up another level. Only elite players can have the impact he did last week. He'll have his off weeks, but so does Buddy. I reckon Cloke will average 110-115 for the year barring injury, and for his current price, that's a good buy.

    I'd take Hartlett first though – and, in fact, I did (had Birch from round 1, lucky pick).

    • FrontPocket says:

      According to Mr. Crimmins' FLESH FOR FANTASY, Cloke's BE is -18, which is lower than some of the rookies.

  34. nickrichards5 says:

    Birchall or Selwood? Birchall's break even is 54 and Selwood's is 111, is this important? What do you reckon?

    • FrontPocket says:

      The lower the breakeven the more likely they are to go up in value after the next round. Go Birchall this week, although you've likely missed out on the majority of his increase in value, but he'll likely be a top 5 defender for the season. Selwood will still have a low-ish score in his 3-round average next week, so he'll still be an option then.

  35. spinnerau1 says:

    A dilemma indeed…..Crouch, Kommer and Viney, all not playing….one of them HAS to go.
    So, which one out, why, who do I bring in, and why

    Personally thinking Kommer he's less likely to rise as much as the other 2….just my opinion though!!

    Rampe is cheap cheap cheap and looks to be on the bubble, Evans is being talked a lot about here or should I go with Duryea as POD?

    I have 1 trade left for this week. (Used one to trade Macaffer out to bring Mayes in) and $277,700 in the war chest.

    • Josh says:

      where are you getting the info that viney isn't playing? Have the teams been released?

    • Gilly says:

      Not sure Duryea is a good option in regards to his job security.

      He came in to replace Sewell who might be back this week and also Guerra missed last week.

      I've got Crouch and Viney and at this stage I am going to hold both. Not sure that the rookies on the bubble are worth the trade, with the possible exception of Sam Mayes, but he is a sideways trade for these rookies

  36. spinnerau1 says:

    Chat and rumour has it that he'll be rested…….my source says he "heard" it on SEN

  37. sully says:

    who on the field mayes, rowe, neade or dwyer?

    thoughts please

  38. Sam says:

    Was locked on the Birchall trade, but this got me thinking!

  39. Matt Z says:

    Keeping Birchall. Scratching Cloke trade. Getting LeCras. Feels less like gamble. And save money for Rocky.

    Thanks Mick.

  40. Scarfie says:

    Thanks Mick, great article!

    I originally had two bandwagon trades lined up – duff man to birch and brad Ebert to cloke via fwd swap. great stats up there. Very insightful and confirmed my doubts..

    Have now reversed trade and just gone Ebert to swan straight upgrade. Pretty much no money yet but got loads of mid-prices and rookies to upgrade so shouldn't be a problem.

  41. davo says:

    i've got cloke now for two resons first of all his own form and with Quinten Lynch in this team cloke stays closer to goal, both of this guys link up much better then the combo of cloke/daws.

    • Super_Freak says:

      I agree. The other main reason no-one seems to be mentioning is the large price increase he is set for. Even with low-mid scores over the next few weeks he will make you more money than most rookies, with the added bonus that he may pump out some high scores. Birchall is also a great option but is a lot closer to his ceiling price than Cloke.

  42. Liam says:

    Hey Guys, think ive got my 2 trades for the round.
    OUT-A.Swallow, IN-Selwood
    OUT-Viney, IN-Mayes
    I've still got Macaffer though so do I scratch those trades and go for something like
    OUT-Viney, IN-M.Evans or M.Jones
    OUT-Macaffer, IN-Mayes
    What do you think???

  43. @emhoy says:

    I am going to pass on Birchall for this week at his price. I stuffed up last week and went Hodge instead of Birchall so need to stick to my strategy of cash generation so Hodge to Mayes so I can bring in Murphy and other fallen premiums over the next 3 weeks.

    I also think Shaw and Scotland will be very good value in the next few weeks so can't justify bringing in Birchall at his current price. I will be hoping like others I can get Birchall come round 8 at a cheaper price.

  44. EPR says:

    Oh boy went with my gut and dropped Stevenson for Birchall and then after the lockout i find that Stevenson was dropped! Loving life right now….

  45. Mac says:

    Thoughts on Winderlich Mick?

  46. ABC says:

    Is it worth trading in Hartlett as a long term option before his big price rise?
    I want to trade Karnezis down to a rookie but Mayes is too highly priced for mine and Kerridge and Paparone aren’t on the bubble.
    Also have Stevenson.
    $270k in the bank.

  47. FrontPocket says:

    T. Cloke traded in at $515,900
    Round 5, T. Cloke: 63
    Round 6, T. Cloke: 124
    Round 7, T. Cloke: 36 (value: $521,300)
    Round 8, T. Cloke: 93 (value: $495,300)
    Round 9: T. Cloke: 83