Hope your weekend was a successful one. We saw the continual rise of Justin Westoff, the return of Luke Hodge and another below par score from Patrick Dangerfield. With price changes underway, fantasy football is back and I bloody love it.
Some were also significantly burnt by the like of Ryder, Varcoe, Pavlich and Kreuzer. Many of those blokes are out long-term and really, you have to get them out as soon as you can. This again gives you a good opportunity to get in those high-scoring players you may have missed.
So, without further ado, I give you this week’s “Flesh for Fantasy”.
“GET HIM IN”
JUSTIN WESTOFF (PORT) FWD – $463,600 DT/$500,200 SC
- Next 5 Games: GCS (A), WCE (H), NM (A), RICH (H), CARL (A)
– Recent Scores: 100, 163, 150
I couldn’t go this week without mentioning Justin Westhoff. He has come from no-where and surely had to be leading the pack for “Breakout of the Year”. He’s gone bang with some huge scores. He’s averaging 22 touches, 10 marks, 4 tackles, and 3 goals a game. However, I’m still not sold on him. Melbourne and GWS aren’t exactly AFL elite defences, but that said, he did kick 4 on an Adelaide side with much better backline. Sterner tests will come this year, and I really don’t expect him to keep up the 150+ games. But what he will do is be a good money generator. A break-even of -33 with Gold Coast to play this week should see another significant price rise. Pav’s injury opens the door to getting Westhoff in temporarily, and with the additional trades, you could easily turn him into a Buddy, as well as build that warchest.
MATTHEW LEUENBERGER (BRIS) RUCK – $233,600 DT/$301,100 SC
– Next 5 Games: NM (A), MELB (H), SYD (A), WCE (H), ESS (A)
– Recent Scores: 101, 93
I write about Leuey to remind the community this week is the last week of a discounted Matthew Leuenberger. As of Sunday night, his price is expected to increase $40,000. If you haven’t been able to get him in over past 3 weeks (like myself), get him in this week. He’s been scoring consistently high, he’s the Lions clear number 1 and he’s mobile enough to almost play as another midfielder. You won’t find a R2 that scores consistently well like Leuey and will generate cash too – which will help in turning him into a premium ruckman down the track. So if you don’t have him, GET HIM IN THIS WEEK COMMUNITY!
LUKE PARKER (SYD) MID – $390,300 DT/$419,300 SC
– Next 5 Games: GEE (H), STK (A), BRIS (H), HAW (A), FRE (H)
– Recent Scores: 96, 133, 86
It seems as if Parker’s initiation into the Swans 22 via the green vest is over. He’s now well entrenched in that Sydney midfield. He’s averaging 24 touches, 6 tackles and a goal a game. He’s an absolute star in the making, and this could very well be his breakout year. Won’t cop the attention that a Kennedy or McVeigh, and because of this, it seems to be having a positive effect on his game. Swans have had an easy start of the year, granted, but again, the competition’s best taggers will go to Kennedy or McVeigh, which will leave Parker to play as 4th-5th string midfielder in that side. I expect his scores to remain solid and have that breakout year SuperCoach players love. Could be a nice downgrade option for an underperforming Zorko or Dangerfield…or an upgrade from a Varcoe. Given he’s in a small % of sides, Lukey Parker makes a nice point of difference in your midfield.
LUKE HODGE (HAW) MID – $398,600 DT/$459, 500 S
– Next 5 Games: FRE (H), NM (H), ADEL (A), SYD (H), GWS (H)
– Recent Scores: 103, 122
With an interrupted pre-season, I was amongst who believed this great game of ours may have finally caught up to a superstar like Hodge. But, as the classics say, you can never keep a champion down, and that’s what Luke has shown us so far. He’s cop 2 of the AFL’s heavyweights in his return to footy, and he’s been nothing short of spectacular. Luke’s averaged 28 touches a game, along with 5 tackles. But the stat we’re interested in is his score breakdown. He has been scoring consistently over 4 quarters, which means he is running out games. Given his lack of pre-season, he will only get better with match practice and should see more scores of this variety. Hawks draw will get easier, which could also result in higher scores for Luke. He’s a quality investment and looks to be in for a premium-type year. Get him in for an under-performing premium and make some cash before Hodge gets too expensive.
“GET HIM OUT”
There have been a number of injuries and suspensions to occur last weekend, and in a game where we trade our trades like gold – it’s only natural to consider holding onto them. Here are the blokes you have to get out of your side.
TRAVIS VARCOE (GEE) FWD/MID – $227,000 DT/$257,400 SC
– Out for: 3 months
– Recent Scores: 61, 63, 9
Poor Travis. If there’s any side you don’t want to get injured in, it’s Geelong. The juggernaut is up and about, and looks a serious contender this season. But on Saturday night, he crunched that shoulder and is now expected to miss 3 months. You can’t hold onto him for too long. If you got him, Trav must be traded. You could wait a week and see if Mayes is able to have similar output against a stronger opposition, or you could go up to a Luke Parker if you’ve got the cash to do so. There is where having a war chest comes in handy. Personally, Crimmins would be going up to the premium if you can. Given the rookies that are still generating cash, there’s plenty of time to make money off them. Take this opportunity to bring in a mid-price/premium you’ve missed.
MATTHEW KREUZER (CARL) RUCK – $398,400 DT/$450,900 SC
– Out for: 3 to 4 weeks
– Recent Scores: 113, 109, 35
This will probably be the only time in Flesh for Fantasy’s history that a player will be in the “Get Him Out” section a week after being in “Get Him In”. After a sensational start to the year, Kreuzer has broken his thumb and is now out for at least a month. Not a great injury to acquire for a ruckman, especially one who likes to do a bit of work around the ground. Given his price, I wouldn’t be holding onto him. Instead, I’d seriously considering trading up to Goldstein, or down to Leuenberger if you don’t have him yet. Either way, Kreuzer must go, and it’s a shame, because I reckon this was the year Special K arrived.
MATTHEW PAVLICH (FRE) FWD- $450,900 DT/$533,900 SC
– Out for: 4+ weeks
– Recent Scores: 60, 96, 59
He’s missed 282 of the past 293 games, but Matthew Pavlich looks to be spending a fair chunk of time on the sidelines with an Achilles’ injury. He’s been down on form to start the season, many wondering why. We now have our answer. He looked slow on Friday night and Jake Carlisle wore him like a glove. With a BE of 144, this injury probably came at a good time. You can’t hold onto him, given his age and injury. Fremantle will now nurse him through the season to ensure he is ready for finals time. Also, with his price still in the mid $500k, it will be quite easy to turn him into a performing forward – i.e. Westhoff, Kennedy, Rockliff or even Walters as a POD. So no to holding onto Pavlich for mine, he must go.
PATRICK RYDER (ESS) RUCK/FWD – $441,700 DT/$543,600 SC
– Out for: 3 weeks
– Recent Scores: 54, 88, 145
For the most part, Patrick has been very disappointing this season. Given his ability to impact both up forward and in the ruck, I was hoping for a big season from Ryder. However, he hasn’t really showed up, and that 145 is heavily influenced by the match winning goal v Fremantle. His 3-week suspension gives those frustrated with his lack of consistency the chance to trade him out. But where do you go? You could hold onto him and hope he comes good. But at the same time, it’s a lot of cash to be sitting on the bench, especially a player underperforming. If you have him in the ruck, downgrading to Todd Goldstein could be the way to go, or even further to Matthew Leuenberger. Either way, you must consider your options with him because it is a lot of cash sitting on your bench for a player who hasn’t been performing all that well.
– Brett Goodes (WBD), -57 BE
– Chad Wingard (PORT), -66 BE
– Campbell Heath (PORT), -57 BE
– Justin Westhoff (PORT), -33 BE
– Jack Viney (MELB), -16 BE
– Pearce Hanley (BRIS), -5 BE
– Brent Moloney (BRIS), 16 BE
– Callum Sinclair (WCE), -59 BE
– Dyson Heppell (ESS), 22 BE
– Jasper Pittard (PORT), -23 BE
– Ollie Wines (PORT), -29 BE
– Lewis Stevenson (PORT), -43 BE
– Kobe Stevens (WBD), 2 BE
– Sam Dwyer (COLL), -82 BE
– Jaeger O’Meara (GCS), -55 BE
– Brad Crouch (ADEL), -70 BE
– Josh Kennedy (WCE), -29 BE
– Mark LeCras (WCE), 32 BE
– Sam Rowe (CARL), -77 BE
– Dean Terlich (MELB), -59 BE
– Gary Ablett Jr (GCS), 192 BE
– Dale Thomas (COLL), 171 BE
– Dane Swan (COLL), 167 BE
– Heath Shaw (COLL), 153 BE
– Taylor Walker (ADEL), 145 BE
– Jarryd Roughead (HAW), 124 BE
– Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL), 201 BE
– Matthew Pavlich (FRE), 144 BE
– Dayne Zorko (BRIS), 128 BE
– Marc Murphy (CARL), 120 BE
– Toby Greene (GWS), 122 BE
Here is this round’s edition of Pub Talk. I want to send my thanksfor the many questions I’ve received throughout the week. Here is the top bunch for the week heading into round 4.
- @MRB37: Is Mundy worth keeping if he continues to average 90-100? No cash generation, no elite scores
ANSWER: Yes I do, for a number of reasons. Firstly, you want a player in your midfield you can rely on getting good scores week in, week out. No use trading him out for a player who scores massive one week, but then could score poorly the next. That’s point 1. Secondly, if he isn’t generating cash and remaining steady, he could be almost a straight swap for a premium that will go down in price. Keep if you can, will be of benefit down the track.
- @ryanmmurphy: With only 2 trades, is it more important to jump on cash rookies or to offload the dud premiums?
ANSWER: Great question, one that almost has a bit of opportunity cost about it. I think it really depends on the rookies you’re missing. If you haven’t got a Viney, Crouch, Goodes etc, priority is to get them in, because they will generate more cash than what a Zorko will lose. That said, if you decide to go with this route, you’ll be stuck with an out-of-form Zorko for example, and if he continues this form, you may end up being stuck with him. But for me, I reckon go with what will generate more cash, and that is the rookies. These premiums are proven point scores so who knows, may end up rewarding your faith.
- @Every_Day_Man: Dangerfield – keep and hope he comes good, or go to Cotchin and sit back and enjoy the consistency?
ANSWER: No player has driven me as mad as Dangerfield this year. He’s yet to score 4 consistency good quarters, and seems to die out after HT. Cotchin is yet to drop under 115 and has shown that despite being tagged, he’ll eventually work his way into the game – as we saw v St Kilda. SuperCoach is all about scoring (funny enough) so when you’re granted opportunity to bring in consistent scorers, you do it. Execute the trade for mine.
- @timbzy91: Westhoff a three round cash generating and point scoring prospect? Also ditch Gazza for a few weeks if injured?
ANSWER: First question, I’d love to buy into Justin Westhoff, really would, but for some reason, I can’t. Now that I’ve said that, he’ll probably go on and average 120+ for rest of the year. He is yet to play on any real quality defences, and should face a sterner test coming up with WCE and North to come. That said, his breakeven is currently -33 BE, which means his price will go up significantly. He could be a pathway to a premium forward like Buddy who is dropping in price. I like it. Secondly, keep Gaz. While he’s playing, he will be scoring very well. If you’re going to ditch for a few weeks, that’s trades you got to burn, only to end up with him back in your side. Keep for mine, will still score 100+ injury or no injury.
That’s it for another week of Flesh for Fantasy. Good luck this weekend. Make sure to follow me at @Mr_Crimmins, and I’ll answer any fantasy related questions you may have.