TRADING PLACES

Filed in Mick The Mad Irishman by on April 10, 2013 • views: 1236

As we all know round three is upon us and that means one thing community, PRICES ARE A CHANGING.  

As I mentioned a little last week, there was a time when trading after round two wasn’t an essential acquisition but as the rules have changed and we now have 30 trades, I strongly advise to use both trades this week. Any coach who thinks by holding their trades they will gain an advantage later on in the year will be badly mistaken, and without the use of corrective trading this week, they could be left a long way behind the leaders.

Of course there will be many trade options and player combinations on offer to the thousands of coaches out there, and not all of them will work out to be successful. We often get blinded by the past scores, break evens and projected price rises and falls without fully understanding some or all of those concepts.

A mate of mine who shall remain nameless to save him embarrassment made one of the most mind blowing trade errors I have ever seen in this game. He went into the season with a three gun, five rookie backline strategy and picked Goddard, Gibbs and Hanley as his three guns. After round one he traded Hanley out for Hartlett. Now encase you don’t know how that has worked out so far, Hanley scored 83pts in round one and Hartlett scored 123pts. In round two after he swapped these two players, Hanley scored 160pts and Hartlett scored 38pts. Now I’ll give you all a minute to either stop laughing or crying or both, depending on how much empathy you have for this man before I explain his reasoning.

I asked him what he was thinking and while his reasoning was completely flawed, in a very weird way I could kind of understand it from his view point. You see he informed me that he was tossing up between Hartlett and Hanley for his third premium defender and last minute went to Hanley. After round one when Hartlett outscored Hanley by 40pts he thought he had backed the wrong horse. He told me he thought Hanley’s breakeven was too high after his “low” score and that if he wanted to get Hartlett in he would have to act now because after his “massive” score his breakeven was really low and would soon shoot up in value. He wanted to be able to use two corrective trades on other parts of his team after round two so he made the trade last week. Of course he wouldn’t have made this mistake if he had read last week’s article “Trade Temptations” and followed the two golden rules when trading (recap here). However what was more alarming to me was the fact that when I quizzed him on how he worked out Hanley was going to have a massive breakeven he said he thought a score of 83 would result in a massive breakeven. The thing is he didn’t actually know what kind of breakeven or projected price fall Hanley was looking at because he didn’t quite understand how the breakeven or prices were calculated.  I’m guessing if he did then there is a good chance he wouldn’t have made this trade.

So this scenario got me thinking, here we have quite an experienced Supercoach player, who by the way finished in the top 5000 last season (yes, bet you didn’t see that coming) making such a basic trading error because he still doesn’t quite understand how players values and breakevens are calculated. So if he doesn’t know then there are probably a lot of other coaches out there who are in a very similar position. Coaches  who could be about to make their corrective trade based on what they are assuming will happen with players prices, and not what will actually happen to their players prices. Fear not beloved community this Mad Irish B**tard isn’t going to leave any of you in the dark any longer.

I am going to give you a very good example of just how easily fooled by breakevens we can be. I am going to use Gary Ablett and Patrick Dangerfield as perfect examples.

Pop Quiz: Ablett ($740,500) has scored 277pts and Dangerfield ($636,000) has scored 170pts over the first two rounds. If they both score 120pts in each of the next two rounds, who will have lost more value after round 4 ??

Answer: Ablett. Ablett will have lost $51,200, while Dangerfield $36,400

Confused ??

Even though Ablett has gotten off to a far better start to the year than Dangerfield, under this scenario where they both score 120 in each of their next two rounds Ablett will have dropped more in Value than Dangerfield. This is because Ablett’s great start and Dangerfields bad start are accounted for in round one where Ablett scored 178pts and Danger scored 63pts. These scores are then only in the three week rolling average (used to calculate the players value) for one week and thus really count for nothing in the larger scheme of things. Ablett’s score of 99 from round two will now be in his rolling average for two weeks and will account for large portion of his drop over the next two weeks. However this score is still less consequential than every other score from here on out, as they will now appear in their rolling average for three weeks.

So going back to my hapless friend who went Hanley to Hartlett because he was worried about their respective breakevens, it actually really doesn’t matter what a player scores in round one because it is only going to affect their price after round three only. Scores in round two will affect their price after round 3 and 4, and then scores in round three will affect their scores after round 3, 4 and 5.

The Formulas;

 

I know many of you are considering corrective trades on under performing premiums this round but before you jump the gun make sure you really understand what you are gaining and what you are losing. I don’t want to be back next week telling a similar story to the Hanley to Hartlett trade mentioned above.

And for all of those who are undecided on which premiums should you keep or who should you be trading in, check out Flesh for Fantasy tomorrow night with Mr Crimmins. A must read.

Best of luck with those trades

Stay Tuned…

Mick the Mad Irishman

Comments (193)

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  1. John says:

    …very interesting.
    Great article Mick!

  2. @maxwills13 says:

    At themoment I have made these trades
    Karnezis to Dwyer
    M.Murphy to Liberatore/Fyfe banking 350k+

    Good or bad trades?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Karnezis to Dwyer= good, however have you heard about Claye beams' injury, could lower the chance of Karnezis being sub.

      Why are you looking at trading out murphy??? However I prefer Fyfe over Libba.

    • Anonymous says:

      The first trade is good and out of Libba and Fyfe I would choose Fyfe.

    • KEEP MARK MURPHY … about to explode – scores are low at the moment but when Carlton start winning and they will, Murphy will be influential and will pump out some big scores … I'm hoping for one more below par week and a frist midfield trade in target come round 6

      Karnezis to Dwyer is a solid trade .. Lock it away

  3. Barny says:

    Thank you for the formulas – very cool and very very helpful!!!

  4. Mr_Consistent says:

    Great article mate! I reckon it could change a lot of people minds on the trades they'll be making this week, including mine…..

  5. Tom says:

    great article Mick

    Just wondering
    Should i trade Koby stevens for someone like Matt Jones or Brad Hill.
    Rookies are already O'meara, wines, viney, crouch, stevens.

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Need to keep koby mate, don't think he will be sub this week and should score a fair amount of points, wait until tomorrow when the teams are announced and check if he is on the bench, make your decision from there….

      • boostboy76 says:

        If you don't have Dwyer and want to make some quick cash, I'd bring him in for Stevens.

        However, I'd only use this trade if I was 100% happy with the rest of my side.

    • KEEP KOBY STEVENS – far better option than both Jones and Hill

  6. Josh says:

    Nice write up Mick. So 5140 is the magic number this season?

    According to Supercoach Gold, Hibberd with a projected round score of 80 and a 3 round average of 86.66 will only jump up $13,000 (assuming he scores 80) which seems criminal considering he averaged 73.8 last year, but when I use your formula it's more like a $50,000 price jump? I was guessing somewhere in the middle of both :/ Any help here would be appreciated!

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Without even doing the formula I can see you must of done something wrong, a player worth 395,000$ is not going to jump by 50k with an average of only 86.66

    • Josh says:

      Ahhh….I just noticed the overall divide by 4! Ok well iI'll have to settle for the minimum price jump of Hibberd!

    • taggath says:

      I think, more correctly, 5140 is the magic number for this *round*. If the SC magic number works the same as the DT magic number (which is 5152 at the start of this season, incidentally), it will get smaller and smaller over the course of the season to keep the overall league value the same.

      To that end, these formulae are great before Friday, but unless you can determine the magic number week-to-week they'll get progressively more inaccurate throughout the season.

  7. tim says:

    It was an unfortunate mistake, which happens. If it had been the other way around then he'd be cheering, yet he still would've broken the Golden Rules of Trade.

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      You wouldn't happen to be the unnamed man that Mick spoke of in the article would you Tim??? :p

  8. DT_Legend says:

    This is very interesting. Nice article Mick!

  9. boostboy76 says:

    Can't believe someone who ranked in the top 5,000 last year could make such a basic mistake?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      It can happen to the best of us, can't it!

    • I know, I couldn't believe it when he told me. But I guess we all have had players that we put in our teams that where 50/50 with another player and there is nothing worse than thinking you picked the wrong one … well that is untill you waste a trade that back fires as horribly as this one did

  10. boostboy76 says:

    Trading out Gaff for Wines this week, and Karnezis for Dwyer.

    Gives me $735K in the war chest, plus the money Dwyer & Wines are about to generate in the next 2 – 3 weeks.

    • dgusto81 says:

      Is Gaff your only option? They play Melbourne this week so could get a few.

      • boostboy76 says:

        That's a good point!

        He's the mid set to lose me the most money at the end of Rnd 3 – about 41K I think. However, I have M.Duncan as well who is in the gun after a poor start to the season. Food for thought!

  11. Deanbartel says:

    downgraded a FWD for J Kennedy today but considering reversing it + trading for LeCras instead. Thoughts?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      No way, Kennedy is going to jump by heaps after this round and even if Lecras is named to play this week I reckon there is a big chance he will be sub.

    • LeCras will be sub affected if he is indeed named this week – could be a handy trade in, in a few weeks time if he posts a really low sub affected score

    • dgusto81 says:

      Also Lecras only played one game so might as well wait and see how he does in game 2. Plenty of mid pricers did well in week 1 but couldnt back it up in week 2.

      • taggath says:

        dgusto81 describes the key to it, indeed. No point trading in a guy, for the express purpose of cash generation, when his price isn't going to rise until next week. If you pull Kennedy in this week and LeCras has a blinder, you can grab LeCras next week if his increase is likely to be greater than Kennedy's *and* effectively pay less for him. :)

  12. Phil says:

    Thoughts on Dangerfield & Lecras OUT for Watson & Cyril

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Don't get rid of dangerfield and have you heard that Lecras could play this weekend against the Dees? However chances are he could end up being sub… Your choice…

    • KEEP PADDY DANGERFIELD – Watson's numbers will be lowered this weekend and Cyril is too inconsistent for me

  13. boostboy76 says:

    Wouldn't trade either Danger or the Frenchman.

    Dangerfield already lifting, and Lecras apparently a chance to play this week!?

    I'm keeping Lecras and getting rid of weaker players in my FWD line, either Karnezis or Jetta, who I wish I'd never picked in the first place!

  14. Tom says:

    Massive Question to the community here.
    Despite the Supercoach Gold predictions, which ONE player will score the HIGHEST score this weekend? From any position, any team

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Dean cox…. playing Melbourne……Nuff said

    • SCaddict says:

      Absolutely impossible to predict. If we knew stuff like that we could retire from our regular jobs and just live off our Sportsbet returns. :)

      I know your situation with regards your league and cash prize but it's really not worth making a trade just to try and chase a single huge score as you'll more than likely be disappointed and end up like Mick's mate.

  15. Pom says:

    What do you think about a downgrade on Shuey to Mullet? 2 losses and averaging 112 gives a negative break even and with another 100 this week a potential price rise of $70k come monday. Can he keep it up long enough to get me even more over the next 4 weeks? Also puts an extra $270k in the bank for later

    • boostboy76 says:

      I think Shuey will come good over the course of the year, whereas Mullet is a bit of an unknown quantity.

  16. Tom, next to impossible to call really – most likely will be someone less obvious and off the radar
    I'll throw something wild out there and say Dustin Martin

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Well now I know they call you Mick the MAD Irishman…. Just kidding mate, Cox all the way though…. :)

    • Tom says:

      As if it won't be one of the Eagles? Priddis? Shuey? Cox? JJK?

      • Highest scoring players tend to come from close matches where somebody will have an outstanding game and does something to win the match. Not sold it will be a WCE player this week. A lot of potentially close games this week now that I've looked at the draw

        New Tip: Pendlebury vs Hawks

      • trev says:

        scott selwood after a slow start will start producing some good scores starting with a 150 against Melbourne this eekend

  17. footyinme says:

    I have 1 trade left, My 3 sore points are Karnezis, Zorko and Dangerfield.
    used the 1st trade on Karnezis to Dwyer
    What should I do with the 2nd trade?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Probably go Zorko to Kennedy if you don't have him, if you do then save the trade.

    • boostboy76 says:

      Wish the three worst players in my side included Danger & Zorko! Are you absolutely positive that long term those two will rate as the second & third worst players in your entire current squad? Don't just go off of the first two week's scores when weighing it up.

      • footyinme says:

        I know mate, sorry
        just want to generate more cash.
        was thinking of Dangerfield to Liberatore generating 191,600 cash

        • boostboy76 says:

          It will generate you cash in the short term, but the aim of generating cash is to spend it on bringing in a gun into your side. Think you already have one in Danger.

  18. scotty "THA FARCUES" says:

    killer info mate! trading zorko for watson. roughhead for leuenberger any thoughts comments are more than welcome!! have quart mill left in the kitty have all the cash cows except pittard !

    • Looks good to be – if I had Zorko or Roughhead id be trading them too – Watson is a solid option but don't expect 160's too often

      • scotty "THA FARCUES" says:

        cheers mate !! will be happy with consistent 100`s from mr watson which you know you`ll get all the way through rest of the year!! can`t tell ya how mch u blokes have helped me go from mid 100000`s to 10800th in ranking early days but goin well !! we all know how it can crumble around ya in one weekend!! Again jock reynolds and all involved CHEERS!!!

  19. kermit the frog says:

    Brilliant article Mick. Always wondered about the formula. Very interesting to see the limited effect of rds 1&2. Any thoughts on Roughy to Kennedy?

  20. footyinme says:

    Got a question, how do I view my watch list of players in supercoach?

  21. Tom says:

    Karnezis –> Dwyer
    Zorko –> Kennedy
    Keeping LeCras

    IS THIS A GOOD SET OF TRADES? Don't know if i should have Zorko or LeCras but trading Zorko out leaves me with a whopping $637k

  22. Master Coach says:

    Issues with my team at the moment I think are my Rucks and forwards.

    B: Gibbs, Heppell, Goddard, Goodes, Pittard, Atley (Stevenson, Terlich)
    M: Ablett, Pendlebury, Cotchin, Fyfe, Moloney, O'Meara, Hannebery, Wines (Viney, Crouch)
    R: Maric, Blicavs (Rowe and Currie)
    F: Rockliff, Kennedy, Franklin, Neade, Varcoe, LeCras (MacCaffer, Lee)

    $450,000 in the kitty, bring Dwyer in for Lee this week if he is playing, then next week look to upgrade Blicavs to Leuenberger and MacCaffer or Neade to Dusty Martin are my thoughts.

    Get around me.

  23. Aaron says:

    What do you think about Roughy to Kennedy then upgrade again?

      • Aaron says:

        The only reason I picked Roughy was for the forward/ruck swing as I have Cox and Jacobs in the ruck. Does that go out the window seeing as Roughy looks to be more of a permanent forward and won’t score as well or should I hope he comes good and save the trades? I’m being a Jew with my trades this year.

        • SCaddict says:

          You should get JJK now b4 his price jumps big time. Can't see Roughy averaging the 105pts he needs to justify a $550K investment. So trade out his @rse and pocket the $250K in savings.

        • moderator please ban Aaron says:

          Aaron I do not appreciate your “Jew” comment. Keep your moronic comments to yourself you piece of crap. You should be banned from this site for good.

          • moderator please ban Aaron says:

            Furthermore, your own name is Hebrew in origin ie Jewish you fool. Aaron is a name from the Old Testament!

  24. ___///___///___ says:

    What the hell do i do with Ryder?? tell me he is going to fire! and also is varcoe to J J Kennedy a worthwhile trade?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Do you have Ryder in your rucks or in the forward line?

    • RYDER MUST GO – a dud pick i'm afraid, not performing as a key forward and is only playing second fiddle to Bellchambers in the ruck – trade trade trade

      l

      • Brad McCrae says:

        I don't think I will Mick – only because your MAD!! Ryder getting equal time in the ruck, just a little out of touch. Belly made the most of his forward time, Paddy is dropping his marks. He will come good I am confident of this, too good a player. Back to WA this week, always plays well there. Here comes Paddy!!!!

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Ryder to Minson or Leunberger take you pick, if he's in the forward line then go Ryder to Kennedy and upgrade varcoe to a premium you like…

  25. dools says:

    It's only a good trade if Your happy with it

  26. dools says:

    Thanks Mick for once again for saving me day…
    Slante mate,
    Dools

  27. Mr_Consistent says:

    Unsure on who to trade out my only bad players are Karnezis and Roughhead, however don't think Karnezis will be sub with beams now out for season…. Thoughts

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes think Roughy first has to go over Karny. I'm giving Karny one last chance against the Suns.

      Of course if you don't have JJK then he would be an obvious move perhaps for Karny or you could also consider bringing in LeCras is he's named this week remarkably.

      • Mr_Consistent says:

        Check out my comment below on what I think I'll do with Roughhead, will be giving Karnezis another week, beams injured less likely to be sub and I have Kennedy.. Had him from the start…. JJK YOU LITTLE RIPPA!!!

        • SCaddict says:

          Yes I understand a wait and see approach on Leuey which is what I'm doing too.

          The only problem is it's likely to cost you an extra $40K in terms of Roughy depreciation if he registers a score in the 80s again. I guess you have to weigh up the two risks and do what's best for you.

          • Mr_Consistent says:

            Yeah we'll I'm sitting on about 350k so 40k won't hurt and ill have peace of mind that Leunberger is a valid pick

            Anyways cheers for the help SCaddict

            • SCaddict says:

              No worries. I have a similar dilemma with Roughie but as I don't have Dwyer I'll likely be bringing him in for Roughie as Dwyer is likely to nearly double in price if he plays a full game of footy this weekend.

              Maxwell's injury although I realise they play different positions frees up another spot in the Pies starting 21 so hopefully Dwyer gets named and doesn't get the vest.

              Assuming all goes well with Leuey this weekend then plan to trade him in next week for either Zorko or Karny if they don't perform through a trading degree of freedom I have between the forward and ruck lines.

              If both Lions perform well then I can always consider upgrading a ruck rookie to Leuey instead.

              Anyway that's the plan. I hope for you sake Roughy drops 150 but for my sake I hope he lays another 80.

  28. Trade Roughhead – only playing forward this year and not getting time in the ruck – has to go for me

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Yeah but I reckon I'll wait on him for a week and then swing him into ruck and trade him for Lunberger, that way I get to see if Luey is the real deal after returning from his injury.

  29. Big Will says:

    Hi Mick, what are your thoughts on Jeremy Howe or Michael Walters (or anyone cheaper) as a replacement for Watts? Leaning towards Michael Walters at the moment.

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Do you have all the rookies and Kennedy? If so then I think you should definitely take risk and pick a smoky you like.

  30. Cold Ass Honky says:

    Made two trades for the week:

    Tex to Bartel which gave me the tiny bit of extra cash i needed to upgrade Varcoe to Leuenberger by swinging Cox into the FWD line. God i love DPP's

    • Cold Ass Honky says:

      Ranked 6,019 after an average round two that was impacted by choosing the wrong players to start on field and which to bench. So team as it stands is:

      Backs: Goddard, Gibbs, Heppell, Goodes, Stevenson, Pittard (Frost, Terlich)

      Mids: Ablett, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Dangerfield, Deledio, Mundy, O'Meara, Viney (Kommer, Jones

      Rucks: Maric, Leuenberger (Blicavs, Currie)

      Fwds: Cox, Bartel, Rockliff, Kennedy, Karnezis, Macaffer (Dwyer, Neade)

      Look alright?

  31. Jim says:

    Trade option help!. Oh, and I’m ranked in the top 900 at this stage so don’t want to do anything drastic! Was thinking of trading Tex and Karnezis out. Best options for the ins? I have almost 10k in the kitty. Cheers guys!

  32. dgusto81 says:

    Thinking on two trades this week:

    1) Either Roughead or Taylor Walker to Kennedy

    2) Varcoe to either Liberatore or Sidebottom.

    Thoughts?

  33. Charlie says:

    Cheers mick! Ripper article mate! My trades this week will be getting Bannell out for Maloney and Roughead out for Neade, this will leave me with 600k in the till, and hopefully not to much of a difference in scores. I already have Kennedy, also have karnezis but I will keep him for one more round see how he goes and then possibly trade him up to leuy next week depending on Lueys performance. Any thoughts or better options will be greatly appreciated! Thanks again mick!

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      I think those trades are very good, I an se Moloney averaging around the 90-100 mark and Neade is going to generate you some cash.

  34. David Bish says:

    Considering Ryder to Dwyer and vlastin to Dixon. Thoughts

  35. Jamie says:

    Do you think these are good trades?

    Roughead to Leuenberger

    Karnezis to Kennedy

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Yeah they are good trades, like to watch Leunberger for one more week before he gets in my side, I think Kennedy is a must have in any side…

  36. trev says:

    after watching hartlett struggle with a tag I think I may bring in moloney for 100k profit and trade vlaustin to dwyer

  37. Fraser says:

    B: Birchall, Goddard, Shaw, Dempsey, Goodes, Pittard (Vlaustin, Terlich)
    M: Ablett, Watson, Kennedy, Fyfe, O'Meara, Viney, Hill, Crouch (Mitchell, Ball)
    R: Cox, Leuenberger (Blicavs, Daw)
    F: Franklin, Chapman, Walker, Bolton, Kennedy, Rowe (Macaffer, Lee)
    Any suggestions on some good trades ? I'm thinking of going Vlaustin to Stevenson or Heath and downgrading Tex to Dywer and getting some cash for later.

    • vinny mac says:

      Those two trades seem pretty good to me. But, how about swinging cox into the fwd line and grabbing a ruck? I'm thinking of griffen, minson or kreuzer…

      • Mr_Consistent says:

        Yeah I think you should get rid of tex, YOU DON'T HAVE ROCKLIFF, I know it's a sideways trade but rockliff is a must have in my opinion!!!

  38. billy longer says:

    there is absolutely no chance in hell that lecras will play this week. why would you keep a player who hasnt played for 1 week and broke his wrist 2 weeks ago. stupid if you ask me

  39. vinny mac says:

    Thanks for this very useful post Mick! After reading this article i've decided to go Ryder out for JJK.
    Roughead out….for a consistent ruck:
    At the moment i'm considering kreuzer or big minson as PODs.
    After Rd 3 I will swing my R1 Cox to the fwd line and trade off any inconsistent fwd (maybe varcoe) to bring in leuenberger.

    I have all the rookies i need for an upgrade later on, so would appreciate any feedback.

  40. Liam says:

    Not sure if I should keep Bennell? If I shouldn't keep him, who should I trade him to?

    Jack Watts out for Jasper Pittard good or bad?

    Thanks.

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes Watts simply just has to go and a downgrade to Pittard would be an excellent move. Can't imagine how things are going to get any better for young JW against the Eagles hungry for their first W.

      You should probably also downgrade Bennell too. I'm in a similar predicament with Rich who I played the cards on but so far hasn't come up trumps.

      As I already have all the mid lock rookies I'm considering bringing in either Parker, Moloney, Mullett or Wingard in his place for maximum cash generation purposes.

  41. Nicko says:

    Hi All,

    Any feedback would be appreciated on the following situation;

    Unlike many of the Supercoach community, I'm PLANNING to back my pre-season decision and keep Zorko for an extra week.

    However, I have Karnezis, T.Lee and Zorko in my forward line and am thinking of bringing in Dwyer / Kennedy.

    My question is, of the two options;
    Karnezis/Zorko > Dwyer/Kennedy
    Karnezis/Lee > Dwyer/Kennedy

    which do you think would result in the best outcome moving forward?

    Thanks in advance,
    Nicko

  42. David says:

    SHould i trade out walker? FOr Pav or CLoke? or stick with him

  43. Dilligaf says:

    What do you think of this?

    Watts out for Dwyer

    Roughead out for Cox?

    Team as stands –

    B – Heppel,Goddard, R Shaw, Yarran, Goodes, Pittard (Stevenson, Vlastuin)

    M – Ablett, Watson, Cotchin, Gibbs, Rockliff, Moloney, O’Meara, Stevens (Wines, Viney)

    R – Roughead, Griffin (Blicavs, Currie)

    F – Walker, N Riewoldt, Kennedy, Watts, Karnezis, Macaffer (Neade, Membrey)

    Giving Walker a couple more weeks to come good and hoping Karny doesn’t get the vest again….

    Any thoughts fellas??

    • David says:

      Yes love those two trades. Roughead wont put up as big numbers as last year. Like that Griffin pick in the ruck as well. I would be looking to move along Yarran and R Shaw. Maybe get one more premium from them and one more rookie in the following weeks. Like the N. Reiwoldt pick as well.

    • taggath says:

      Dwyer's price change should be great, and if anyone has paid more than rookie price for a Melbourne player, they need purging quick smart.

      Cox, however, is an outside chance to break-even and that's only because they're playing Melbourne. He's a good, long term investment, as he has been for years, BUT if you're trying to use Round 3 to make some money, Cox is no better than Roughy. I'd go Kreuzer if you want a reliable R1 with a price rise.

  44. Chris says:

    Very interesting article Mick, food for thought. Was not overly interested in trading this round but you got me thinking…
    My team is:
    DEF: Gibbs, Duffield, Heppell, Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson, (Heath, Terlich)
    MID: Ablett, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Dangerfield, Shuey, Moloney, Wines, O'Meara (VIney, Hill)
    RUCK: Kreuzer, Griffen (Blicavs, Dawe)
    FWD: Cox, Zorko, Rockliff, Kennedy, Neade, Dwyer, (Macaffer, Karnesis)
    Considering trading Karnesis for Rowe (if Rowe is named, and especially if Karnesis is on the bench)
    More ballsy options are Duffield for Dixon and then Karnesis for Elliot/Monfries.
    Any help would be fantastic.

    • vinny mac says:

      I think you're all set with this team. I personally think karnezis will pump out decent scores in the upcoming weeks so holding him at the moment. Same with zorko hence i am holding him as well.

      • Chris says:

        Thanks Vinny Mac, very new to this and appreciate the feedback. Hard to resist the temptation to trade before Round 3.

  45. beau fisher says:

    Hello Please tell me what to do with Rich, Do I keep the faith or trade and to, Maybe Libba or go up to A swallow??? Thanks

    • J.K says:

      I would trade, Libba will make cash but Swallow is a premo, depends what you want. Also could consider Howlett, Mullet, Sidey etc

  46. Joe says:

    Mitchell to Whitfield or hold? It Mitchell a legit 80+ scorer?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      He would be if he didn't get the sub vest, if he is named on the interchange tonight there is likely chance he will be sub, from there trade him out for viney, O'meara, Wines, Goodes, Crouch or Blicavs

  47. Frank says:

    Brad hill from the hawks, must be considered, will get a regular spot in the hawks line up with their lack of genuine pace. Should I consider or is it more beneficial to get Dwyer this week? Worried about Dwyers job security..
    Am thinking k.mitchell out for hill and karnezis/roughhead out for kenedy. Thinking I want to give roughy another week?? Have Varcoe as well, should I go for kenedy and Dwyer?? What are your thoughts on k.mitchel?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Wait on Karnezis, Roughhead to Kennedy and check the line ups tonight and check If Dwyer is in the team and make your decision from there.

  48. Tom says:

    People's thoughts on Zorko? Will he start pumping out good scores or is it worth trading him down, then up to someone better?

  49. Liddlejnr says:

    G’day community!

    I have Ryder, and have to say I am whole Heartedly disappointed with his out-put. I went to the Melbourne v essendon game last week and watched him very closely. Bellchambers has elevated himself to the no 1 ruck spot, by being hungry for the contest. Despite Ryder palming down some wonderfull taps in the ruck to give the midfield first use, his hunger for the contest and hunting the ball is non existent. Ryder should have grabbed that opportunity with both hands on the weekend and destroyed Melbourne, instead he chose to put the cue in the rack and take the Melbourne approach, wandering around and leaving it up to his team mates. I can’t understand someone with the array of weapons he has at his disposal to be so lackadaisical. He is more mobile than most ruck man in the comp, does not use to his advantage, fantastic agility, a great contested mark, can snap goals from anywhere inside 55 meters, this bloke should be an absolute weapon, but his application and hunger for the ball are left wanting far to often. Being an essendon fan I have advocated for Ryder for years, but maybe I was wrong. I think in the coming years bellcho will become a stand alone ruck man with Daniher pinch hitting and the bombers should look at trading Ryder for a high draft pick to secure another young midfielder. I will be trading Ryder out this week for will Minson, I have watched the doggies the past two weeks and have been really impressed with not just Minson but the way McCartney has transformed them over the Sumer. I think Minson will be a good point of difference and he loves the contest, and being the stand alone ruck man, and the doggies being a lot more competitive should churn out a few more big scores. I don’t like sideway trading but I refuse to be frustrated by Ryder anymore this season. I am also going to downgrade zorko the magnificently second year blues to Gus Monfries, and pick up lecras for karnesis next week if he plays and gets through the Melbourne game. The only two bad picks I have had this year, almost got it spot on!

    I’d like to thank the jock footy community for making this supercoach season far more enjoyable with your insight and analysis, great work guys, bring on the top 1000!

  50. mel says:

    Hi Guys,

    In the next few weeks how does one determine when the rookies are at the top of the price cycle?

  51. Eugene says:

    A Maths question here, why do we times 5,140 in the formula?

    • taggath says:

      5140 appears to be the SC 'Magic Number' at the start of the season.

      The magic number is used as a multiplier to keep the value of the entire AFL league of players the same across the course of the year. So, when there's a price rise in one player, there HAS to be a drop in another to keep the overall value the same.

      The thing about the magic number is that there are generally big increases in value in a fewer number of players (e.g. rookies and long-term-injuries) and lots of smaller decreases from established players to counterbalance. The magic number will necessarily get smaller each time there is a price change, and high price players will find it progressively harder and harder to break even.

      5140 is accurate this week, but the further into the season we go, the lower it will be and the more inaccurate the above calculations. The formulae still hold, but you need to be able to determine the current magic number to use it accurately.

  52. Alan says:

    by trading out Roughead it gives me enough cash to bring in Ablett. Knowing that Ablett will most likely take a price dip would you bring him in now or wait until his value drops. Histroy has always suggested to grab Ablett at whatever cost. And for me it would put him in my midfiled which already has Kennedy, Cotchin, Watson, Pendlebury, Mundy

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Trade out Roughhead before he drops and then keep the money and trade in Ablett next week.

      • Alan says:

        Great advice, thankyou. I presume even if Ablett has a good game around 140 points he will still take a good price drop……

  53. Rifet says:

    BACKS: Gibbs,Malceski,Goodes,Pittard,Stevensons,Vlastiun,Heath and HOULI

    MIDS: Goddard,Pendles,Sam Mitchell, joel Selwood, McVeigh, Fyfe,Viney,Crouch, Omeara, Wines

    RUCKS: Kreuzer,Mumford,Cordy,Blicavs

    FORWARDS: Bartel,Rocklift,Cox,Kennedy,Dwyer,Neade,Rowe,Macaffer.

    Thinking about trading Houli for Watson and then using another 4 trades to get Dangerfield and waters later leaving 4 cash cows I plan on selling….

    Or buy Mullet upgrade to Watson later along with 3 other trades to get dangerfield and waters leaving 5 cash cows .. Bit risky hoping Mullet still get around his average.
    Any thoughts on which way to go ???
    Rgds
    Rifet

  54. Rifet says:

    Goddard will go up to the Backs

  55. Luke says:

    Great article boys!
    I have had scores of 2179 and 1983 in the past 2 rounds, and not too happy. In round 1 I did make 1 trade, trading out Sam Jacobs for Shane Mumford to make the extra cash. My current team is as follows:

    Defence:
    B Goddard, B Gibbs, H Hartlett, H Shaw, L Stevenson, B Goodes (J Frost, D Terlich)

    Midfield:
    G Ablett, D Swan, P Dangerfield, T Cotchin, B Moloney, J O'Meara, J Viney, B Crouch (K Mitchell, N Vlastuin)

    Ruck:
    S Mumford, M Blicavs (S Rowe, D Currie)

    Forward:
    L Franklin, T Rockliff, T Walker, D Cox, T Varcoe, B Macaffer (S Kerridge, T Lee)

    I am thinking of trading out Walker for Kennedy as my first trade to make some cash. Walker's price will go down and Kennedy's will rise. For my second trade, I am thinking to upgrading Currie or one of my cheap rucks to Leunberger or somebody else. Other than upgrading my ruck, I can upgrade Vlastuin to Liberatore as I dont see Vlastuin getting too many games. If anyone has any other trades to suggest, please tell me. Otherwise, let me know if my trades are smart moves.

    Cheers in advance.

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Definitely have to get Kennedy in and Walker is the perfect player to get out, then I would wait on upgrading you rucks because blicavs price will rise and you can save about 50k when you trade him in for Leunberger. Maybe use your other trade to get Vlaustin out and replace him with Ollie Wines.

  56. Brick says:

    Why no love for Aaron mullet? 2 100+ games against tough opposition. Great BE too.

    Boys??? Any comments?

    • Mr_Consistent says:

      Because people are always cautious when approaching new up and coming players. I'm not sure he is the real deal yet, but when I do it will be too late… That's why mid priced players are so risky.

      • Brick says:

        He's a short term cash cow at the very least. But given the roos style of play I'm on board for the long haul. Traded out Mitchell for him so something HAD to give.

  57. Billy says:

    Thanks for the formula advice, makes the trade plans a bit less cut and dry

    now thinking of the following trade scenario (have 218K in the bank) –
    Zorko -> Gablett
    Karnezis -> Q Stick

    would like to think Zorks can turn it around, but just dunno

  58. EPR says:

    @Crimmins I still dont get how you get the magic number of 5140?

    Explanation anyone?

  59. D man says:

    Who to keep considering the latest injury updates (lecras and beams)

    Thumbs up. Keep lecras
    Thumbs down: keep karnezis

  60. Selwood says:

    Roughead – Kennedy, Rowe – Dywer and 332k
    (Swap Cox to RUCK and Roughead to FWD)

    or

    Roughead – Goldy, Karnezies – Kennedy. and 70k

  61. Ben says:

    Hey guys
    Love it if you could answer these Qs
    Should I Trade Roughy
    Roughy to sideways trade or Leunberger
    Keep Tex or sell him
    Keep Karnesis
    or sell to Kennedy
    Varcoe or Karnesis to Kennedy

    Thanks in forward line already got Dywer, Macaffer, Neade
    Understand i need Kennedy but who for

    Cheers

  62. Michael says:

    Looking at trading big.Tex Walker. Who should i trade him for. Should i trade him or keep him?

  63. Charlie says:

    Libba, Maloney or Parker? Simple as that boys..?

    • Lancelot says:

      all good options chaz! libba may be affected when boyd comes back and parker has a history of injuries…

  64. EPR says:

    anyone? 5140?

  65. walesy says:

    Mick, you've nearly got it mate, but you're missing the final step.

    After the salaries are adjusted as to your above formulas, everybody's salary is then adjusted to ensure that the total player payments are the same as the week before.

    If everyone got their average, this would be fine- however, because rookies have a tendency to score well above their salary and garner a price rise- they steal salary off everyone else.

    Net effect is- the BE/Salary predictions gained by the above formula will be higher than the actual results found.

    Years past, it's tended to trend towards a 10% loss on value for a premium player is they are getting their average.

    • Simma says:

      Hey mate, thanks for this. So are the the Supercoach Gold predictions close when it comes to the price change of a player if he gets the projected score?

      • walesy says:

        Yeah, close enough. Generally a little over the mark, but will get closer as the trend levels out. :)

        Alternatively, you can boot up TooSerious and plug in your own projected scores. :D

  66. Sully says:

    Watts-bartel is first trade and I want to make a second trade so which one should I go with?

    Varcoe-Dwyer

    K.stevens-Dwyer

    Or vlaustin-Heath

  67. Guest says:

    What do I do trade varcoe or macaffer for Dwyer

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