TEAM RANK MATHEMATICS

Filed in Game Strategy by on April 4, 2013 • views: 2625

What is your rank after Round 1? Have you considered trading to elevate this rank? I have … and I have some mathematics here to explain why.

Firstly, one needs to consider the very large population that is Supercoach teams. 284,705 teams are entered this year …. down on last year; a result of the new draft style game I suspect ….. Anyway, given this large population, current team ranks will follow a distribution pattern known as The Normal Distribution(common name = Bell Curve). More on this later.

Below I have graphed the top 1500 ranked teams;

Very interesting indeed!

As you can see, the lower the scores get, the more crowded it becomes …. and this is only the top 0.5%. This graph above forms the extreme left tip of the Normal Distribution Curve as shown below;

Without going too deep into standard deviations, it is important to note that the closer your ranking is to the mean(middle of “the bell”), the more likely it is that you are sitting on a rank with hundreds of others …. all on the same score. A few points here will result in a vast difference in rank!

My team, Mathemagic FC, is currently ranked 5148th and I would expect that there would be at least 100 others with this same rank! With 30 trades this year I am prepared to trade early to leave my fellow rankers behind.

Yes, it’s a long season you might say. Yes, these trades may be more valuable in the run home …. BUT, last year I managed with 24 just fine, and remember, during the bye rounds you only need 18 scores!

As my good, yet occasionally crass friend Crouching would say, “I am trading my ass off!”

Are you?

Kind regards,

Peter Higginbotham

 

 

 

Comments (73)

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  1. AWESOMENESS says:

    Hi Higgo
    My only trade for round 2 will be getting LeCrae out of my team due to injury.
    I was also thinking of getting rid of Goddard or Newman for a better defender like Birchall, D. Pearce or J. Grimes but I was thinking that I should wait till after Round 2 to see how they go and how Goddard and Newman go.

    Thoughts

  2. @Popey_99 says:

    I will be trading my ass off for sure. 3-4 trades over the first 2 weeks for me!

  3. @maxwills13 says:

    Great work Higgo!
    With this team any trading you would recommend?

    Goddard Gibbs Hartlett Brown Goodes Pittard. Stevenson Terlich.
    Ablett Pendles Kennedy Danger Murphy Wines O'meara Viney. K.Mitchell Crouch.
    Cox Jacobs. Blicavs Currie.
    Zorko Bartel Rockliff Karnezis Varcoe Macaffer. Neade Rowe.
    $69,700
    Scored 2390 first round ranked 2,245

    • @maxwills13 says:

      Could Dangerfield to Watson be a good move? Or would you get Barlow to generate some cash…?

      • @PeterHiggo says:

        Can't comment as your team is settled as is … However …. Have you considered Murphy to Barlow?? Cash could then turn Varcoe into something better? BUT this is hairy! Have a good think … Look at projections, go for a walk … Before you even consider,

    • THESALTSHAKERS says:

      Almost identical to my team dude – rank 4402

    • SCaddict says:

      There's nothing obvious that needs to be fixed in your team so I would probably hold off trading til next week. You won't appreciate saving these trades til late in the season when extra trades will feel like a godsend.

  4. froggy says:

    Had Watts in my forward line and Neade in mid.

    Now subbing Neade into the forwas line and trading Watts for Wines.
    Also upgrading Dangermouse to Ablett withthe extra cash

  5. Murph says:

    I'll be using my early trades to reverse my crazy Round 1 decisions.
    I'm trading Dusty Martin down to Cloke, and that will give me a bit more cash to allow me to trade Lycett up to Josh J Kennedy #welcome

  6. Swans2012 says:

    I’m with you higgo, if you have even a faint sniff of overall you should be trading your ass off to get an advantage, if your after a league win its not so important yet. Me I’m going Jenkins – luenberger if named and then either Le cras to monfries or walker ( which means fielding blicavs) or le cras to goldy ( which means fielding mcaffer). Advice welcomed! Currently ranked 630 odd and leaning towards the monfries option as I trust blicavs more than mcaffer (I think) and would leave 100k plus in bank.
    Want these two trades out of the way this week as I feel a couple of sideways trades might be worthwhile next week to take advantage pre price changes! (Maybe franklin down to whoever puts there hand up and even a Duffield to Hartlet)

  7. Swans2012 says:

    Meant to also say I think you should ALWAYS consider trading out whoever is going to lose the most cash each week in your team for whatever option is going to gain the most that same week, thus you keep your team value spiralling in the right direction, not losing cash early on is just as important as having the right rooks to make cash in my opinion!

  8. steve says:

    im thinking of 2 weeks of trading to generate some cash and they are petrie out for ace cordy and longer out for griffin that should fix up my ruck with cox r1. Then next trade is dangerfield out for viney and rich out for j.lewis that should free up $580k . What do you think higgo.

  9. jockreynolds says:

    Hey Higgo I dont always understand your mathematics business but I think I'm picking up what you're slapping down mate. So you're opening up the trade wallet now mate? Very interesting. Just considering the LeCras situation right now

  10. elM says:

    have you posted your team on the site yet yet, Higgo?

  11. Matt says:

    Lecras for Arryn Siposs= Awesome Trade

  12. Nick says:

    Fellas, I need help with the lecras situation! I’m thinking of trading lecras for either:

    A) monfries

    B) siposs

    C) rookie

    Help

  13. john d says:

    M Robinson to Dwyer or Rowe then upgrade Hannebery to Ablett? Good trade or not?

  14. Jake says:

    G’day guys.

    Love the work higgo

    Who do you think is the better premium option?

    Watson or Kennedy?

  15. @MRB37 says:

    It is definitely something to consider Higgo, and making early trades is something that could get you over the curve and into a better scoring position in the long run. I'm not a fan of these early sideways trades, but would encourage rookie mistakes are fixed as early as possible. Also as Higgo pointed out, only needing 18 players in the bye rounds will probably remove some trades. I remember last year I used about 7 or 8 trades during that 3 round period specifically on sideways trades to get guys who were playing that round (I was going for overall scores). I still managed to go into finals with 4 trades left, now we've got an extra 6 I reckon a few early trades will be OK.

    That trade button is taunting me at the moment though and I have a huge urge to trade LeCras and upgrade another player so I can hopefully get another good score this week, rather than waiting another week.

    • dools says:

      WoHhhh Brother e-mail you r team or your score… Stay away from the button 30 trades is great but you need them for later not after 1st bloody round looking fwd to hearing from you mate. You picked the team because you had faith in them what earth shattering thing happened? Keep the faith
      Your pal in SC
      Dools

      • @MRB37 says:

        Hey Dools,

        Scored 2396 last week, that's with JPK as my C over Ablett and Viney on the bench. Only trading because of LeCras getting injured. When he originally broke his arm. I downgraded Bennell to Maloney to free up extra $ so I could swap out LeCras for Stevie J. Now that he's injured too i've got $120K sitting on the sidelines not doing much. So I've basically got 4 options available to me

        No trades – Keep LeCras benched as I have cover for the moment
        1 trade/no extra $ spent = LeCras to a similar priced player such as Kennedy, Monfries or Siposs
        1 trade/extra money spent = LeCras to Robinson, Martin or Wright
        2 trades/extra money spent = LeCras to Kennedy and Jacobs to Hartlett

        If I don't use the extra $ now, it'll most likely sit in the bank until I generate enough free cash from a rookie, which means it could be another 6-7 weeks until that happens. So I think why not use the 120K now to really improve my team. From the looks of what Martin, Robinson and Wright are scoring, it doesn't look like they'll score much higher, I'd guess 10-15+ points a game than Kennedy (80-85 average for Kennedy vs 95-100 average for the other 3), meaning I'm not getting a huge bang for my buck out of my spare cash for upgrading my FWD to one of those players. However, Jacobs to Hartlett is looking like it could yield an improvement of 25-40+ points a game to my side (70-75 for Jacobs vs 100-110 for Hartlett), meaning it's now my best use of my spare cash. It'll use another trade yes, but it will also significantly (if everything goes to plan) boost my scores over using just 1 trade, not just in the short term, but in the long term also as Hartlett is looking like a year long keeper if he doesn't get injured. Basically I'm using Mad Mick's line of thinking here, in that for me in ticks off the two boxes he mentioned in his previous column, which were "Will this trade make my team earn more points?" and "Is this the best trade I can make for my team to earn the most points possible?"

  16. brad says:

    should I keep Daniel rich?

  17. Josh says:

    I put Jack Gunston in my team, as I thought he represented value given he was a sub 5 times in 2012.

    He looks rubbish compared to last year though, and I think I will dispose of him for Josh Kennedy (Eagles).

  18. Gary says:

    Thinking about dropping D.Rich and moving Gibbs to my MID from DEF then adding Suban and spare cash, to flick Watts next week if he doesn't deliver this round.
    Thoughts???

  19. crunch says:

    hey jocko love your work chiefo
    was just wondering what you thought about this potential gamechanger?
    greene and jetta for wines and rockliff? make it happen?
    thought the greene machine would ramp up his output from last season, same with jetta. his grand final run seduced me!

  20. Bustling Barrys says:

    Hey Higgo,
    I was really disappointed with Ben Jacobs from Nth. Thinking of downgrading to Luke Brown as I'm thinking they may score the same. Thoughts??

    • @MRB37 says:

      What do you plan to do with the extra cash?

      Brown will be playing a shutdown role for the Crows so his SC scores will probably be limited to the 50's and 60's. Jacobs didn't look all that great (I have him also and am probably getting rid of him). At the very worst Brown will generate some cash for you and I reckon his job security is pretty high as the Crows don't have many players to fill the void that's there due to Doughty retiring.

      Reckon give Jacobs 1 more week, if he doesn't look any better give him the flick.

  21. Eddie says:

    Thinking of downgrading S.Atley to a Rookie, then trade K.Stevens or K.Lucas for D.Mundy or even B.Moloney, freeing my up with some cash $$$ thoughts?

  22. Stan says:

    Thinking of Lecra for monfries???

  23. Adam says:

    Have both shuey and Watts ….. too early to move on these?

    • davo says:

      id hold shuey and trade watts down for a rookie to save cash and get more cash from the rookies improvement after round 3, but hey im ranked 50, 074

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes unless you need to urgently get in someone like GAJ, Rocky, Gibbs or one of the lock rookies. But if you have all these bases covered already then I recommend you sit it out trade wise this week and have a good look at these two boys this weekend as well as how the rest of the AFL competition performs.

    • Rocksta says:

      I wouldn't trade Shuey out unless it is up to a 'Lock'premium mid such as Watson, Selwood,Pendles,GAJ. too early to move on Watts

  24. TA1 says:

    Very seriously considering Karnezis and Newman to Monfries and Birchall. Had a panic trade pre game of Monfries to Karnezis and am already regretting it. Thoughts muchly appreciated.

  25. chandanrajdb says:

    Hi Community,

    Need Some help really….RUCK Structure….

    Have got COX, ROUGHEAD, BLICAVS, CURRIE

    Have got ROWE in the forward.

    I am thinking of using 2 trades this week

    Option – 1

    1. Out LeCras and swing Roughead into the forward line and bring in Leuneberger

    2. Out Currie and swing Rowe to Ruck and bring Dwyer.

    I will be left with $205,600 left in the bank if i do the above 2 trades

    Or

    Option – 2

    1. Out LeCras and bring in Dwyer

    2. Out Roughead and bring in Leuenberger

    If I do the above trades i will be left with @650,900…..the reason for th 2nd option was Bailey is named in the team which will effect Roughead's score this week again….which means Roughead's price will drop by a huge amount…….

    Which option is good & What do you guys think. Need Help very badly….any suggestions / comments would be highly appreciated….

    Thank you,
    Raj

    • @MRB37 says:

      Reckon you give it another week Raj. If Roughie stinks up the joint again then that'll probably show you which trade to make.

      • chandanrajdb says:

        Hmmm….Ok I will be trading out LeCras to S Dwyer this week… generate some cash and look to go big next week……like Currie to Luenberger (if he does score well though!!!) and zorko to some performing premium forward…..or dangerfield to one of these GUNS – JPK, Jobe Watson, Dane Swan or even may be Barlow….

        Three Guns in my team are on notice…..1. Dangerfield 2. Roughead 3. Zorko…..if any of these guys doesnt perform well, then couple of them will be going…….i do not want to decrease my team value by having these highly paid GUNS and performing not as good as they should be for that price…..

        Thanks for your reply above mate…..

        Much appreciated…..

        Raj…

  26. matt says:

    should i get rid of roughy now that the hawks might go with the bailey/hale ruck

  27. dan says:

    just an interesting fact for people playing silly buggers with there captain (like i did last week and wont do again)

    abletts last 8 scores against the swans 171, 19, 135, 203, 164, 155, 254, 122 the 19 was when he did his knee early last season

    welcome!

  28. taggath says:

    Fancy sharing the mean and SD for the entire dataset, Higgo? For both SC & DT if you could, please. :)

  29. Tom says:

    WHAT ABOUT!
    Fyfe –> Cunnington
    Dangerfield –> Ablett
    LeCras –> Kennedy

    Thoughts?

    • Jimmy says:

      Maybe if you want to trade fyfe –> Moloney.

    • Knave says:

      Keep Fyfe he'll should be good through out the season. Ablett is a big price what i did was keep Dangerfield and later in the season if one of your premiums does bad trade to Gary Ablett if he cant keep that big price. As for LeCras and Kennedy that's a good option ;)

  30. dan says:

    you dont have that many trades

  31. Tim says:

    Who shoul I get rid of for Goldstein out Ryder and Roughead!

    I don’t like bailey, hale and Roughead all playing in the same team and Ryder should play like he did last year so who should I get rid of?????!!!!

    Help!!

    • SCaddict says:

      Too hard to tell after just one game so perhaps wait a week if you can.

      Roughy does have the slight benefit of being a DPP so I give him the slightest of edges right now but Paddy could light it up against the Dees tomorrow and Roughy could have another quiet one for all I know.

  32. tension says:

    temptation was too great – had to get bryce in as I didn't have him.

    cost an awkward two trades but felt it had to be done, didn't compromise any other key prems or rooks.

    hope it pays off.

    • SCaddict says:

      He'll have his ups and downs like all players but he's the must have in your back line.

  33. Jimmy says:

    Will anybody be trading in the leuenberger this week now that he is playing?

  34. Jimmy says:

    Thoughts on Jack Hutchins from Gold Coast, played a few games last year and was drafted as an underage recruit. Only 115,900? What do you people think?

  35. tension says:

    Dees you are a disgrace at the moment. No tackles, no contested ball, no game plan.

    Must win against the Giants in Round 4. No excuses.

    #NeeldOut