FLESH FOR FANTASY – PRE ROUND 1

Filed in Supercoach Mr Crimmins style by on March 27, 2013 • views: 1295

FLESH FOR FANTASY – PRE ROUND 1

AFL Fantasy analysis by Mr CrimminsHello my favourite community, hope you’re all well. It was an interesting start to the fantasy campaign, with sub-par scores from the likes of The Dangerman, Heppell, Ryder, and Shuey. Add to this the injury of LeCras, who was flying until he snapped his arm, and safe to say it was a rough ol’ beginning.

But, for Old Crimmins here, the real stuff doesn’t begin ‘till Thursday night, and I’ve been champing at the bit for it to start. 2 games are done, but we’ve still got 7 to go. This presents us with added time to lock in our premiums and finally get our rookies in order.

It gives me great pleasure to present to you my weekly article. ‘Flesh for Fantasy’ will be providing the community with trade in and out suggestions, and players who are either ready to explode, or ready to flop. This special debut edition of “Flesh for Fantasy” will be supplying last minute selection ideas (and maybe headaches) as we head towards that final lockout.

We may have had a touch and go start, but still so much work to be done, and another chance to solidify our SuperCoach/AFL Fantasy teams ahead of that all important final lock out (or rolling lockout in SuperCoach).

“GET HIM IN”

‘Get Him In’ will supply you with the best trade in options for the week. Since the season is nothing but a pup, there’s no real point of talking about trade ins. Instead, I’ll give you the players you should be locking into your sides for round 1 if you haven’t already.

JOSH P. KENNEDY (SYD) MID – $523,900 DT/$643,000 SC

- Next 5 Games: GWS (A), GCS (H), NM (A), GEE (H), STK (A)
– Recent Scores: NA

The Sydney Swans superstar has had a magnificent pre-season, and has shown all the signs of backing up his Best and Fairest season. Against Gold Coast in the NAB Cup, he amassed 22 CONTESTED possessions, 12 clearances, 4 tackles and 2 goals. However, it’s not his pre-season I want to draw your attention to. Sydney kick off the season against GWS and GCS. Scores last season of 127 against GCS and 137 & 123 against GWS show us he’s guaranteed a good start. Josh also loves playing the Saints (122 & 157) if you choose to go with him. He’s a contested possession machine, and really, given the start to the season, you should be seriously considered – especially given how poor some premiums have performed so far.

NICK RIEWOLDT (STK) FWD – $441,400 DT/$513,100 SC

- Next 5 Games: GCS (A), RICH (H), GWS (A), ESS (H), SYD (H)
– Recent Scores: NA

Given his age, it’s easy to overlook Nick Riewoldt. On the wrong side of 30 with a beaten body that looks to be catching up on him. However, don’t rule him out just yet. If you’re looking for a player that will score well early, Nick’s your man. St Kilda’s start to the season sees him line up against weak opposition and sides he enjoys playing – GCS (119 & 159), Richmond (92), Essendon (117) and Sydney (115). Waves coming out of Seaford suggest St Kilda will be opting for the “mosquito fleet”. This means no Kosi to get in his way, and he can have a greater impact up the ground. Not sure about Nick as a long term fantasy player, but should both generate good scores and cash early. Could be decent option if you’re waiting to jump on Buddy later.

BRETT GOODES (WBD) DEF/MID – $121,300 DT/$128,200 SC

- Next 5 Games: BL (H), FRE (H), RICH (A), ADEL (A), GEE (H)
– Recent Scores: NA

Dogs have been dealt an absolute horror start, and on-field success looks few and far between at the Kennel this season. If there’s to be a good news story to come from this season, it’ll be Brett Goodes. The brother of Swans legend Adam, he’s 29 years old and was drafted for 1 reason – to play senior footy. Given the injuries at Whitten Oval, Goodes is a sure thing to play round. Form alone probably would have granted him a game anyway. The backline is the position where your cash will be made, and you’ll need rookies in there to generate the dollars. Brett is one of them, and if you haven’t got him in your side already, stop reading this article and do it now.

GARY ABLETT (GCS) MID – $642,500 DT/$740,500 SC

- Next 5 Games: STK (H), SYD (A), BL (H), PORT (H), GWS (A)
– Recent Scores: NA

You’re probably thinking I’ve run out of players to suggest, and to an extent you’re right – it’s round 1 and most of your teams are already locked. But I want to take the time to reassure you fantasy hoodlums out there that Mr Ablett must be in your team. I’ve been feeling a little bit of worry amongst some in the community about Gary in 2013. Yes, Guy McKenna did come out and say Gary will become more of a finisher. Realistically, though, this won’t last. When the Suns fall 50 points behind early in 2nd half, not too sure how long Ablett will be a “finisher” for. I fully expect him to continue dragging that young midfield along with him, so no dramas there. Also, his average last season was 138.1, which was 2nd highest of his career. For a player with little to no help in midfield, that’s super good. Many are doing the strategic thing of holding off ‘till his price drops. Smart, but really, for a player like him, price is irrelevant. You lock him in, and you leave the C on him. If Mr G Ablett is not in your starting line up come round 1, you’re a flaming galah.

“GET HIM OUT”

“Get Him Out” will most likely be myself, Mr Crimmins, firing up over a lack of effort from an individual, or preparing you for the worst. I will be listing off players you should stay well clear of or to get out of your team.

STEVE JOHNSON (GEE) MID – $501,700 DT/$516,700 SC

- Next 5 Games: NA, Injured
– Recent Scores: NA

In case you’ve missed the big news, Stevie J has had surgery on that infamous prelim knee and will miss the first month and a bit. Huge blow given the midfield time he was going to see this season, and his DPP. He’s not one you should hold on to. If he’s in your side, get him out. Even when he returns, I would hold off a bit before you trade him in. It’ll take time for Stevie J to get back to full output, and with this, we’ll see a price drop. A nice price drop would make Stevie J tempting down the track, but early on, don’t bother.

DUSTIN MARTIN (RICH) FWD/MID – $437,100 DT/$473,500 SC

- Next 5 Games: CARL (A), STK (A), WBD (H), COLL (H), FRE (A)
– Recent Scores: NA

If Greg Broughton were “2012 Burnman of the Year”, Dusty would have been a close 2nd. A season that promised so much failed to deliver, and we were left waiting for that game where he backed up a good score. His scoring last season was a roller coaster, and it only got more up and down when he returned from his suspension. “Dimma” Hardwick says he’s been flying pre-season, but surely the rumours that spread would have affected Dusty in some way. As we saw last season, adversity for Martin creates inconsistency. Another reason why you would stick clear of Dustin is his poor skills by foot. He’s prone to turning the ball over, and will butcher you in SuperCoach. He is right up there in the league for fewest disposals per turnover. In other words, he collects on average just 14 disposals before he turns it over. This doesn’t sound bad, but when you compare it to likes of Carrazzo (43 touches) and Judd (42) you see it’s an alarming stat. He could very well come out and dominate this season, but given his history and poor disposal, he’s one worth missing out on.

SHANNON BYRNES (MELB) FWD – $229,300 DT/$230,100 SC

- Next 5 Games: PORT (H), ESS (A), WCE (H), GWS (H), BL (A)
– Recent Scores: NA

This Cat turned Demons has been tossed in the rink as a potential mid-priced forward option. I’ll keep it short and sharp here, get him out. Despite spending bit of time in the middle, he’s been recruited to play around the feet of Dawes and Clark. If you’re going to select him, you’re either stacking your forward line with mid-pricers (which is a massive no-no), or you’re robbing yourself the chance to pick up the likes of a Karnezis or Varcoe. Stay clear of Byrnes, he won’t generate cash and will give you your 70-75s every week.

“PUB TALK”

Each week, on top of giving my suggestions, I will be answering 5-10 of the community’s fantasy-related questions. I’ve been a big believer, during my days of teaching, that no question is a stupid question, and whatever question you have, someone might have the same one. So make sure you tweet your question to @Mr_Crimmins, or in the comment box below throughout the weekend/early next week, and it could get published on next week’s article!

So that’s it community, the first instalment of ‘Flesh for Fantasy’ for season 2013.

Good luck over the weekend, and hopefully it’s a bit better than last week.

Mr Crimmins.

Comments (93)

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  1. James says:

    Hey Crimmins,

    Have you considered Michael Walters from Fremantle? Had a great game against West Coast and looks really lively up forward.

    Someone a bit cheaper to consider also is Ricky Pettard. Richmond picked him for a reason and that to play. Is really cheap at $230,000.

    Have a good round and Easter weekend mate.

  2. @PeterHiggo says:

    Pettard not named and a huge risk for mine anyway.

    Solid write up my old miserly friend, however, we must agree to disagree re:Dustin Martin. My feel is that he is a reasonably safe bet to build on his 2012 average and the dual position and price factor has me quite keen.

    Regards,
    Peter Higginbotham

    • James says:

      Be careful here Higgo, If Martin is caught for drugs mid season then what are you going to do? Huge risk for mine.

      Cheers

      • James says:

        He burnt me last year.

      • Wazza says:

        And if Dane Swan is caught on drugs mid season …
        My point being getting caught on drugs mid season is as much a risk for any player. Sure the rumors were flying around about Martin but the rumors have been there about Buddy before as well.
        Taking Rumors into account as a risk is risky IMO ;)

      • Ram-Rod says:

        The entire Essendon team is much more of a risk then haha!

    • SCaddict says:

      I'm with Higgo on this one. Reckon he's primed for a big year and attractively priced at well under $500K.

      If the off field stuff interferes with his footy well you can always burn one of your 30 trades but I doubt you will have to.

    • Br0d0 says:

      Agreed Higgo.

      He's been named on the ball too. Come on Dusty, breakout baby yeah!

  3. Gedransom says:

    You say Byrnes won't make you money.
    Then in the next sentence you say he will get you your 70- 75 each week.
    His break even is 49!!!
    That equates to a price rise to me?

    • James says:

      Varcoe is a better option running off half back then Byrnes who may receive no ball in the forward line at times. Not sure if he has been considered in the midfield but that's his only hope for mine to get a solid Supercoach score.

      Cheers

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes that would see him peak at around the $400K mark which would be a nice return if it happens. He's had a very quiet NAB Cup though so I've picked Karny and JJK as my mid priced forwards instead.

    • Completely agree with Mr Crimmins on this one.
      If he is to score 75 in each and every game he would increase his price to 390k at round 12 and finally reach 400k in round 20. That is if he scores 75 in each and every game.
      However if you take into account he is just as likely to score a 50 on numerous occasions throughout the year, these scores will effect his price increases for three weeks for every time he get one of those low scores.
      Hence he is more likely to peak at 350k if you are lucky and is more likely going to peak at 320k

  4. smithayy says:

    Bachar Houli or Chris Newman?

  5. Smithayy says:

    I need 4 good rookies for the back line can you help?

    • SCaddict says:

      Goodes, Terlich, Pittard, Stevenson are all in my defence.

      Frost, Colquhoun, Docherty, Corr and even Valstuin (who wasn't named for Rd 1) are others to consider.

  6. SCattery says:

    Hows it going crimmins! good read mate just got a couple of questions for ya mate.
    1. What are your thoughts on Roughead and Kane Lucas?
    2. Who is your round 1 capt? mine is currently JPK

  7. Dinolyn says:

    In order to get Kennedy I had to get rid of Zorko, who do you think is the best forward under 515k??
    At the moment i have gone for Jordan Lewis, not too keen on Riewoldt's. Thoughts??

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes Lewis is a nice selection. I have Dusty although that's quite a polarising pick as you can see from the debate above. Others I considered seriously in that price range include Wright and Robbo.

    • Patsy says:

      i got rid of zorko too… in his place, i've put another fwd/ruck david hale, word is that he's is turning into one of the best utility players in the league.i have griffin and hale in ruck, blicavs and currie atm as emerg, cox as fwd and rowe as fwd emerg. that way, i can swing hale into forward line via rowe should the rookie rucks get a shot.

    • Gid says:

      Can you find extra $5k for Rockliff??? Otherwise, have you looked at Watts? Bit risky but has good form of late and they didn't pick him at #1 for no reason- surely going to break out this year or next…

  8. Campbo says:

    Question for u mr cummins, Rowe named emergency, keep or trade? A forward to replace him?? Cheers

  9. Jason says:

    Cotch or Lids ?

  10. David Bish says:

    Kane Lucas as sub?? Can u see him playing all year?

    • Patsy says:

      mick seems to love the guy, i have him and will decide last minute before tomorrow night depending on whther he gets green vest or not.

  11. sully says:

    what do you think dustin martin, mitch robinson, jack watts or lewis jetta?

  12. Richoman_12 says:

    I currently have Rowe, S Dwyer & Macaffer as my forward line rookies. Are there any better options than these?

    • Mac says:

      Neade and Spangher are probably the only ones closer to getting games than Dwyer.

    • SCaddict says:

      I reckon Stringer is a strong chance of playing for the Doggies either this round or the next especially with Boydy missing. Will cost you $179K though.

  13. Sam says:

    I'm not going to choose Byrnes or anything,
    But you said he's going to get you 70 – 75's each week, not sure about you but I'd be happy with that from him. His break even is 49.

  14. David says:

    Off topic I know but I'm stuck between d.rich and h.bennell??

    • SCaddict says:

      Don't blame you for being stuck there. I know Jock is huge on Bennell but I've gone for Rich in my team who was arguably player of the NAB Cup with a whopping 2.17 SC points per minute played. That translates to about 140-150pts per full game!

      Just think that the Lions have so many weapons in the midfield now with Zorko, Rocky, Redden, Moloney, Karny and Hanley all working through there at stages that Rich is just another fella in the mix. You can't shut them all down. Rich is over $35K cheaper too!

      On the other hand I believe Bennell is going to get a heck of a lot of attention this year as the main man in the middle for the Suns especially with Ablett pushing more forward this season according to Bluey.

      However we will just have to see how the season unfolds for these two stars of the game.

    • Gid says:

      Gotta like both of them, hard choice. For me, I've been waiting for Rich to break out for the last 3 years- his preseason form suggests that this will be the year. No doubt that Bennell will average 100+ this year but Rich looks more likely to score 110+ most weeks. Bennell will surely have 120 ave in 2015, he will be a lock. But for now Rich is less risk, higher reward.

  15. Tom says:

    Thoughts on Matera from GC as a F5 option?

  16. Jon says:

    Any thoughts on Jack Steven? Seems like no one has shown interest in him. He’s done well last season ave. 89.9 SC points, scored 7 times over 100 with a high of 143 against Sydney and he only scored once under 50 last year.

    2009 played 1 game ave. 66
    2010 played 8 games ave. 62.5
    2011 played 20 games ave 78.2
    2012 played 21 games ave. 89.9

    I would think this is his year to Breakout into an elite player, by looking at his stats. He’s only 22 years young.

    • SCaddict says:

      He's certainly on the rise and has had a great pre-season campaign averaging just over 2.0 SC points per minute played.

      I can't fit him in my structure as I'd rather go Rich for that money. But I do have him in my draft league so hope he has a massive year.

      • Jon says:

        Well his had good games against GCS Round 2 last year 22 Disposals, 98 SC points and again in Round 11 with 21 Disposals, 91 SC points. He will likely to have the same amount or more pill this Saturday against GCS.q

        • Fabian says:

          I rate stevens as well. Picked mundy and fyfe over him in my regular comp, but managed to snare him up in my draft. I reckon he will push the 100 ave

  17. Eagle says:

    Crawfs tip!

  18. Luke says:

    Haven’t heard much talk about Adam Goodes… has been a star in the past but is he too old now?

    • SCaddict says:

      Yes looking very much like the player in decline at the ripe age of 33 unfortunately. He's had an injury interrupted pre-season recovering from that PCL injury he sustained in last year's GF.

      His midfield minutes should also continue to evaporate as he is used up forward more and more. One too avoid for fantasy football purposes I reckon.

  19. sully says:

    dustin martin or watts???

  20. sully says:

    rockliff or zorko??

    • Gid says:

      Surely you have to go Rockliff over 2nd year Zorko. Just wait and see if Zorko can pull it off in his 2nd year. If he does, then trade him in later. But for now, Rockliff is proven, Zorko isn't.

  21. jockreynolds says:

    Crimmins – refreshing write up mate and it gives this old bastard a real spring in his step to see Nick Riewoldt mentioned in elite circles for one more year. You've got me thinking… This mosquito fleet that we go in with could actually be a god send for Roo. Opposition will be so engrossed in dealing with the smells that Riewoldt should only be left to fend of one good defender.. They won't be able to group up on him as it will leave too many stalls free to mop up crumbs and do the damage.

    Very bloody interesting mate. Hats off.

    • Josh says:

      I agree Jock and Crimmins, could pay off! He was in and out of my thoughts all pre-season but I ended up going Cox, Rockliff, Bartel, Mayne, JJK and Karni. Got beyond what I hoped for from Mayne and JJK on the weekend. Although JJK is unlikely to score regular 100's, he should be a sweet little stepping stone to a gun down the track. It feels good to rest easy on the FWD line… for now!

  22. Fabian says:

    Ruck delimas!

    Thoughts Community.

    Current ruck and fwd set up is

    RUC: Mumford, Luenberger (blizcavs, currie)

    FWD: COX, LECRAS, Franklin, Zorko, Karnezis, Varcoe, (mcaffer, rowe)

    Now I've heard rumors of both mummy and luey potentially missing round 1 and mummy also for round 2.

    Anyone heard any truth to these rumors?

    If so, which of the following options would be better, if they both miss:

    1. Trade mummy for goldstein and have blizcvs as a playing emergency (good for using captain's loop hole).
    2. Trade Luey for longer, swing rowe into the ruck , use blizcavs as starting and bring in a high mid priced fwd for mumford (potentialy watts or someone around that mark ), then swap cox and rowe for round 2 so I don't have to rely on blizcavs playing round 2.
    3. Trade luey for longer and have blizcavs cover mummy for a week.

    Only have 18 000 spare cash and am gonna have to burn a trade to swap lecca out .

    Would appreciate people's thought.

    Ideally both of those ruckmen play and I have no problems.

    • SCaddict says:

      Not sure about the rumours but you've picked two guys in your starting ruck who have proven to have been quite injury prone in the past.

      May come off for you if they can stay healthy but it's a risky combo that's probably too much for most coaches to tolerate.

      Perhaps consider moving Rowe to your R4 in place of Currie so at least you can bring in Big Cox if Leuey or Mummy can't play in future rounds.

      • Fabian says:

        yeah it was a risk that I wanted to take… hopefully still works out! Yes will move rowe into ruck.,. have cox as insurance and will be looking to upgrade luey to nic nat eventually.

  23. tibbles15 says:

    Cotchin or JPK?

  24. Tom says:

    Matera or Karnezis?

  25. Dave says:

    Will T. Lee & C. Hitchcock play? Where do I find the team line ups that were shown on the AFL footy show?

  26. jake says:

    $500k looking for a mid, rich? hartlett?

  27. Gid says:

    Both should rise in $$$ but Rich has higher ceiling. On the other hand, Hartlett has very good chance of being top 6 fantasy defenders (Rich has good chance but not AS good a chance of being in top 8 mids)- so Hartlett is close to a guaranteed keeper.

    But Rich will have higher average.

  28. Sam says:

    Vlastuin not playing

  29. Crazy Dave says:

    Just entered and compared to supercoach and dreamteam there are hardly any entrants so it should be easier to Win the $150,000. ENTER Australias Richest AFLFantasy competition. Centrebets AFL FANTASY LEAGUE. Free to play… http://bit.ly/centrebetafl

  30. Dabman says:

    would it be wise to swap penders for kennedy?

    Also vlaustin is not selected to play so i've traded in Pittard, should it be him or coloquen that gets the nod??? i already have goodes, terlich, stevenson & docherty.

  31. Pete says:

    Lots of people are over looking the fact that Heppell tagged Dangerfield out of the game and scored higher than him

    • SCattery says:

      ok mate, Dangerfield played nearly half his time in the forward line because he was recovering from the flu which he was suffering from all week. He was even lucky to be named in the side. Also Heppell tagged him for half a game while hocking had the most impact on Dangerfield.
      If you are trying to say that Dangerfield cant handle a tag your a very wrong. Danger will be huge this year and when he's side plays a lot better.

  32. Kerrigan says:

    I have enough cash to select any 2 forwards I want. I already have cox & rocky along with varcoe and karny. Johnson would’ve been a lock but obviously out for a month. Cyril most likely comes in his place leaving me with $632k. I wouldn’t mind going in the season with some cash behind me but I don’t want to be left behind on the buddy train….

  33. Morse says:

    Great article ol mate, tell me, J.Kennedy or Pendles????

  34. Should I be looking at Dusty Martin?

    Either swap with H. Bennell and get an extra 50K

    or

    Swap with Watts

    • Morse says:

      Harley will tear it up this year, with Gary jnr moving between midfield and forward line, harley will be priority go to…

  35. Tom says:

    What time do the teams come out tonight?

  36. Morse says:

    5.30pm I believe

  37. Fongool says:

    you can add bryce gibbs in the list of 2012 duds

  38. Marc Albert Placek says:

    Thoughts on bringing young Jed Anderson into the midfield as a point of difference for either Mitchell, Crouch or Viney?

  39. Smithy23 says:

    Jock really can't decide on my lat ruckman I can get anyone who do you think is the best option?

  40. Joseph says:

    Thoughts on Ben mcEvoy??

  41. Daniel says:

    I'm suprised Gunston hasn't been mentioned. Played 16 games last year so def in Hawks best 22. 381K at 71 avg, could be an improver.

  42. Dave2008 says:

    Team:

    B Goddard Gibbs Heppel Goodes Stevenson Pittard (Heath Terlich)
    C Ablett Pendlebury Kennedy Dangerfield Fyfe Omeara Wines Kommer (Viney Mitchell)
    R Jacobs Roughead (Blicavs Daw)
    F Cox Zorko Rockcliff Martin Kanezis McCaffer (Lee Neade)

    400 in the bank

    Thought about Dwyer but he will be out when all the Pies who are out and in the best 22 come back. There are no ruck 4s who are playing or defenders under about 170k to give me a full team playing.
    Any thoughts would be most welcome

  43. Linc says:

    UNIQUE
    For a POD I selected Whitfield and not wanting a Prem ruck chose Longer. Considering downgrading Whitfield to Kommer, only solid mid option as I have all other top rookies, except for Crouch.
    Downgrade + Bank + Longer = $464 for a ruck substitute. Who?? Luenberger? All possible locks are over $500,000.
    Or Longer to Currie ( have Blicavs) and upgrade Whitfield to Moloney? However hey may need to be upgraded later, hence another trade.
    Please help!

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