Jock’s NAB Cup round 2 fantasy review

Filed in NAB Cup Analysis, Supercoach by on March 4, 2013 • views: 803

NAB round 2 review supercoachGood evening folks!

It has been an intensive 72 hours and I am happy as a lark. Stacks of fantasy worthy talent was strutting around like bloody roosters over the weekend. I thought I would provide you with a few of the most fantasy relevant stories as I saw them on the weekend.

Of course I’m assuming by now you’re all listening into the weekly podcast? If you’re not – I love ya – but your mad as shook up box of frogs. Click here to listen on the iTunes or just listen in right here from the website.

Righto – the biggest stories for mine:

Bryce Gibbs – DEF/MID –  CARL

$510K Supercoach, $473K AFL Fantasy
110 Supercoach points on the weekend – 12 contested possessions! 

It isn’t often that we get on the front foot with regards to lacklustre performances. But when I assess the situation and determine that a bit of stick is required it is delivered. Last season we gave Bryce Gibbs more than his fair share of stick for not being willing to get the hard contested ball.

I’ve been gobsmacked with his transformation. Over the past two weeks he has collected just as much contested ball as uncontested. He had 20 touches running through the midfield – 12 of them contested over the weekend!

I’m here to tell you that he is locked safely away in my backline.

Travis Varcoe – FWD/MID – GEEL

$269K Supercoach, $234K AFL Fantasy.
17 disposals, pumped it inside 50 five times

I wrote about Travis’ claims for a position in you fantasy teams before Christmas and he has ticked every box so far. What I wanted to see out of him before round 1 was consistent game time and no injury. Tickety tick folks.

Being tested in the fantasy lucrative set up half back roll aka Chris Yarran and real potential to average around 95 Supercoach points this season. I’d select him to give my team some real value for money zip with a view to being one of the last players that I upgrade to a premium mid season.

Patrick Dangerfield – MID – ADEL

$636K Supercoach, $525K AFL Fantasy
31 disposals – 22 of them contested – 149 Supercoach points

Mick The Mad Irishman wrote about the possibility of Dangerfield taking it to Gary Ablett like levels a month or so back. He presented us with an absolute ball tearing display of Australian rules football on the weekend.

In the mould of your Swan’s and your Ablett’s and your Watsons he is now one of those thick trunked players that are very bloody difficult to stop. Throw him in the mix with Pendles and Ablett as your Ultra Premium selections this season.

Basted Chicken, Cunnington and Ziebell – MIDS – NTH

$408-434K Supercoach, $388-406K Dreamteam
110 Supercoach points for Bastinac, which one will break out?

I’m convinced one of these blokes will break out this season – but I’m not sure enough to risk selection of any of em. All have showed sparkling form this preseason and all fit the profile of a player likely to take his game from a mid priced, middle of the road scenario up into premium territory.

Peter Higginbotham’s statistical profile of a likely break out player identified that the Kangaroos have no less than 11 players that fit the profile this season… might be worth a flutter on the Roos to make the eight this year I reckon folks.

Kane Mitchell – MID – PORT

$126K Supercoach, $119K AFL Fantasy
26 touches of the pill in his first full game at AFL level

Not since my debut for Karingal’s senior team as a 12 year old has a first timer showed such command at his craft at such an early juncture in his career at the highest level. Kay-ne Mitchel-son (as The Crouching One refers to him) has locked a spot in my midfield with his performance on the weekend and he needs to be locked into yours as well folks.

I should mention Ollie Wines as well here who was bloody sensational in his first full game at this level with 10 bloody clearances! Goes against my policy of not paying top rookie premium dollar for first year youngsters – I wont select the kid this season at $170K Supercoach.

Lewis Stevenson – DEF – PORT

$116K Supercoach, $109K AFL Fantasy
Another defense option emerges

Impressed the trousers off me with his 20 disposals for a rookie infested Port Adelaide outfit. Mature age option who had a run with West Coast a few season back before killing em over in the WAFL for the last couple of years. Good boy.

Jake Neade – FWD/MID – PORT

$116K Supercoach, $109K Dreamteam
Little man… maybe a bit too little folks?

Things are looking a bit thin up forward for us this season and Jake has emerged as an option. Was especially impressive last week and begun very well again this week. Faded yesterday – and with his bloody small build (sorry Jake old son) I am not sure he has the physical attributes required at this level just yet. Not for me at this stage but I’ll look forward to seeing if he bucks up again next week.

If you’ve listened to this week’s podcast you’ll know that plenty more cropped up over the weekend…

What made you sit up and take notice this week kids?

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Comments (68)

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  1. DamRight! says:

    Gday Jocko,
    how much rookies would you put in each position??
    I'm thinking 2-3-0-1

    • jockreynolds says:

      Gday there Dam – interesting question mate and one I am not satisfied with re: my final team as yet. Interesting to note mate I put a poll up on the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community Facebook page and 5 rookies in the midfield is the most popular amount for mid rookies.. surprised me mate.. I reckon that's too much

      • DamRight says:

        Yeah i totally agree just changed up my team a bit and put
        3 rookies back – Vlaustin , Goodes , Colquhoun
        3 rookie Mids – O'meara , Toumpas , K. Mitchell
        this leaves me with Swan , Ablett , Cotchin , Dangerfeild , Murphey + 300k salary… i think I'm doing alright…

  2. kodesz says:

    Hey Jock
    What do you think of shuey this year?
    Also Mitch Robinson surely has to be considered this year with 144 SC points this week.
    Will you take the risk on lecras??

    • jockreynolds says:

      Gday there Kodesz! Shuey will very likely be included in my final team, Mitch Robinson I'm not convinced on and has a bit of a habit of bobbing up in the pre season, and LeCras initially I was very keen on but I don't believe he has enough upside in him to justify a spot

      • Stefan says:

        Some stats on Shuey v Robinson

        1. Shuey was ranked the 29th best mid in 2012 vs Robinson ranked 75th best
        2. Shuey has a 2 year average of 99 vs Robinson's 89.5
        3. 2013 projections see Shuey at 112.30 average vs Robinson at 87.11.

        Interesting to note that Robinson's average decreased from 2011 to 2012. Surely this was impacted by Brock McLean's midfield influence.

        Shuey > Robinson by far

  3. JJFyzz says:

    5 midfield rookies?!?! Holy shite Jock-man. Too many I reckon.

  4. James says:

    Hi Jock,

    What happened with Todd Goldstein? Wasn't he your number 1 ruck?
    Also who are some premium forwards to consider? I already have Rocklief and Roughead.

    Would love your thoughts

    • James says:

      Btw I have Koby Stevens, Mitchell and Crouch on the field. I know you think that's a bit to much but there all quality.

    • jockreynolds says:

      Gday James – he was mate – at this stage I have Zac Smith and Leuengerger (stuffed this up in the podcast.. said Giles meant Smith! bugger). Like Smith as a 3rd year player, 1st ruck at a very low price, break out potential… Goldstein… Curry has come in and done a bit more than anticipated, dont think Goldy will settle into stride anymore

      • Paddles says:

        What about Redden at Port also I can see Lobbe betting him for the number one spot going on current form and isn't Renouf injured?

      • Helmet Hosenlonga says:

        Damn you Strap!! I thought I had young Smitty on my own but you've let the cat outa tha bag now .. other than that, luvving the banter and insights.

      • BMO says:

        Ive come around to the Z.Smith & Berger combo also Jock. Not many rucks that I am sold on once Sandi went down. Not much comp in the GC ruck stocks, hopefully Smith can smash the scores out for us :)

    • @pluggers_guts says:

      I still believe Dan Currie will be the number 1 ruck for North by the end of this season. I've been following his career for a long time. Dominated last year in the SAFL for North Adelaide after some years at the Swans.

  5. boostboy76 says:

    Calling break out seasons for De Boer, L.Jetta and L.Parker.

    All in my team this year.

    • jockreynolds says:

      Parker I am real big on mate – nice find. Not too sure about Jetta.?

    • @pluggers_guts says:

      Parker's been on my radar too mate. With only SC 61 over the weekend, I'd like to see a bit more from him before selecting him in my squad, but definately a chance for a breakout.

  6. boostboy76 says:

    oh….M.Duncan too..

  7. boostboy76 says:

    What about D.Hannebery instead of Jetta?

    • @pluggers_guts says:

      Good call there boostboy. He was strong against the Saints in NAB 2 with a game high SC 114. He's been pretty stagnant over the past 3 seasons with supercoach averages of: 2010 – 83.4, 2011 – 84.2 & 2012 – 82.1. At age 22, according to Higgos recent article on this website that analyses what age players are most likely to have a breakout year, he could be on the cusp. He'll at least be consistent if nothing else and doesn't miss many games.

  8. Nicko says:

    Hey Jock,

    not many FWD listed in that list that you recommend. Anybody you fancy at the moment?

    I have Macaffer, Neade and Kerridge at the moment and im not sure that's going to cut it.

    Your guidance will be much appreciated.

    Cheers,
    Nicko

  9. jimbotraralgon says:

    hey guys…..I have $271k available for my F6.

    I have Varcoe, Macaffer and Kerridge already but otherwise its free choice.

    Thinking maybe Cornelius, Karnezis, Patton or maybe Byrnes.

    Thoughts?

    Cheers

    • Richoman_12 says:

      Cornelius for mine mate. Got a feeling he may be more of a consistent scorer than the rest.

      • jimbotraralgon says:

        thanks richo….

        I originally had Rowe (F), Wines (M) and Vlads (D)

        but with the forward rookies being so weak this year I am thinking

        Corny (F), Kommer (M) and Colquhoun (D).

        Pretty unsure about this one.

        Cheers

        • Paddles says:

          Keep an eye on Petterd (240K) if he gets elevated off the rookie list and what about Andy Krakouer (he is 291K though)?

    • choppers says:

      I have Varcoe, Macaffer and Kerridge as well, Jimbo and I've also gone Karnezis atm. I'm from up that way and was very keen on Pat 2 yrs ago but he didn't get much of a show and then he dried up altogether in '12. He seems to have a new lease on life now that he's down back/mid. See how he goes this week in Melb. against the Pies. I'll probably decide then.

    • choppers says:

      Further to my previous comment, Corny is more KPP as well, making it a bit harder for consistent scores, Patton is great, but young, big and may probably cop more injuries than most until his body matures more, and I prefer Pat over Byrnes at this stage.

  10. boostboy76 says:

    Also think Gaff looking good to step up his output, a la Shuey of the last couple of seasons

    • StefGalb says:

      Gaff looks like a lock to me …

      1. 75.7 average last two seasons
      2. Increased his average by 29.29 from the 2011 to 2012 season
      3. 2013 projected score based on average movement of 119.66

      As long as Kerr is around Gaff should be freed up without a tagger.

  11. boostboy76 says:

    Keeping a close eye on Cornelius as well.

    Wouldn't touch Patton this year. For a guy built like a tank, he seems a bit injury prone? Key position players like him also tend to take 2-3 more years to develop than other positions.

    As for Neade, he's still rookie listed. Chances are he might not even get elevated to the senior list unless Port have another LTI.

  12. Aaron says:

    Jock matey I have a little dilemma selecting my mid premiums this year with so many guns to choose from, Initially I had Swan in there but after all the talk on Danger I’m scratching my head a bit. It’s either Swan, Danger or Beams for a POD? What do you think? And also Mundy or Zaha? Tough bloody choices I know! But as you know it’s crucial.

    Cheers mate!

  13. Luke says:

    Who would you choose between fyfe and mundy?

    • Stuart says:

      Fyfe

    • Paddles says:

      Mundy ATM I think you will find a big upside to him lots of tackles but keep your eye on Barlow after his first year was massive then the broken leg looks ripe to tear the game apart this year.

    • Fitzy says:

      I'll be going with Mundy mate. Fyfe's immediate fitness and durability sus and he seems to a have a problem breaking the heavy tag, similar to Hill. Mundy is consistent and also seems set to kick a few more majors this year. He's also a bit cheaper.

    • SCaddict says:

      Mundy for me too.

  14. Paddles says:

    Thanks for that Jock loving you thoughts will be keeping a close eye on the Nth V Geel game this week to see how the Nth boys play this game.

    A couple of forwards slipping under the radar… Petterd and my little mate the Fire Krakouer your thoughts?

  15. Paddles says:

    Can you start a new page for the How is you team going? Too many pages to keep up.

  16. Luke says:

    Who would you choose.
    Varcoe or lecra?
    Or anyone else in that price range?

  17. Nick says:

    Anyone else being tormented by the Supercoach website? Cant login

    • CHRIS says:

      SAME HERE. CAN GET TO THE WEBSITE BUT CAN NOT LOG IN. NO PROBLEMS WITH THE DREAMTEAM WEBSITE AT ALL. IF THEY DONT GET IT FIXED UP SOON THEN I GUESS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FRUSTRATED SUPERCOACHES OUT THERE. I WILL CERTAINLY BE ONE OF THEM!!!!

  18. Dee says:

    Wines or Mitchell, who would you rather?! Also Is Blicavs worth a spot on your midfield?

    • choppers says:

      Mitchell if he gets elevated to the Seniors. Blicavs won't be on my midfield bench

    • SCaddict says:

      Mitchell as he is cheaper and has plenty of senior footy under his belt in the WAFL. That said I have both in my team.

      There are too many good rookie choices in the midfield but I reckon Blicavs is well down the list of value so I would look elsewhere. Now if he was a Sc ruck option then that would make him more attractive but sadly he's not.

  19. steve says:

    hi jock what are your thoughts on A.Cornelius

  20. Guest says:

    I don't know who does the stats, but it must be Mrs. Gibbs! I bet a bloke at half time, when the commentators mentioned he'd had 6 contested possessions in the first half, that he wouldn't get two in the second half and we both agreed (him a Carlton supporter) that I won the bet. I've watched his whole career and don't think he's had 12 contested possessions in that time!!!

  21. @bridgman35 says:

    Crouching was pretty harsh on Jenkins in the podcast, currently he is making Young Bloods FC forward line. For the money, I feel he has an opportunity to slide right into K.T.Traitors spot, and according to reports is as fit and strong as a young Jock Reynolds. Your thoughts?

  22. Nas says:

    Jock what are your thoughts on Shane Mumford?

    • StefGalb says:

      Ranked 18th best Ruckman in 2012.

      2012 average was 91 down 21.59 from 2011 average of 112.6. Only played 14 games in 2012 vs 17 games in 2011.

      Two year average is 101.8 but with a downward trend. Will be interesting to see how Mike Pyke will affect Mummies average.

      Will Minson? Upward trend over the last 2 years as well with a two year average of 89 and 2011 to 2012 increase of 12.21.

      • Josh says:

        I appreciate the research and there are some helpful facts in there, but I wouldn't hang my hat on stats like this. I find it amusing when people jump right off players when they have an average year. There are only a few flawless players in the comp, the rest will occasionally slip down.

        Go with your gut, stick to your own strategy and don't over complicate it! IMO

    • SCaddict says:

      I'm a Swannies supporter but wouldn't touch the Mummy myself. Just too injury/suspension prone with the dodgy back, knee and ankle issues. Nowadays Pyke is also eating into his numbers as well.

      That said I hope the big fella has a ripping season and proves me wrong ha ha.

  23. Woofer says:

    Hey there, I use all your articles as guides.
    Doing a draft and I've been offered Lecras for Thomas with me holding Thomas. Not sure which way to go. Any thoughts?

  24. Jared says:

    Thoughts on my Backline & Midfield as of yet anyone?

    DEF
    Goddard, Gibbs, Duffield, Hartlett, Vlastuin, B.Goodes (Stevenson, Terlich)
    MIDS
    Ablett, Pendles, Dangerfield, Shuey, Mundy, Moloney, K.Mitchell, Viney (Crouch, O'Meara)

    • Aaron says:

      Looking good mate. Not sure about Hartlett, future gun but a bit of an injury and inconsistency risk being a Port player. I’d go for a Birchall or a Heath Shaw or Scotland if you have the cash?

      Not really keen on mid priced mids with all the rookies and premiums we have this year, I’d get rid of Moloney and Shuey and throw in Marc Murphy and another rookie like Jesse Lonergan.

      Hope this gives you some piece of mind.

      • Jared says:

        Yeah thanks mate, been swapping Hartlett with Birchall and P.Hanley all week unsure on who to go, leaning towards Birchall now.
        Yeah good point thanks mate, might upgrade shuey to a Murphy or even A.Swallow as a POD

        • Tom says:

          No don't listen to Aaron. LOCK moloney. He will have an amazing year so keep him and generate cash.

  25. Fongool says:

    i guarantee last weeks round made super coaches shuffle their team around…i know "FONGOOL" has made a 100 changes already ^^

    • SCaddict says:

      Hey that's half the fun aint it!

      PS The other half of the fun is hanging out at Jack Reynolds and chatting about it. :D

  26. samb says:

    have got toumpas, wines, k mitchell, o mearea, and colquhoun in mid with two of those on the bench, is that good or should i take out one player to get crouch?

  27. Awesomeness2103 says:

    Hey Jock[polldaddy 6949464 http://answers.polldaddy.com/poll/6949464/ polldaddy]

  28. Hey there! I’ve been following your blog for some time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Lubbock Texas! Just wanted to say keep up the excellent job!

  29. choppers says:

    There's plenty to choose from, depending on who you have already.
    1 from Martin,Watts,Christensen,Broughton,Monfries and
    1 from Varcoe, Siposs, Byrnes Lecras or Karnezis. Just a few that came to me.