Greetings again Community friends,
In my previous articles some of you may have picked up on the fact that I am fond of having a bet. If I’m honest, I’d certainly classify myself as a “high-roller” when it comes to gambling. However as you probably all know; there are reasons behind my success. Despite moving onto a better life with better acquaintances, I still maintain my connections from the seedy side of our society. It is from these… acquaintances.. that I receive many of my best tips.
When I noticed that sportsbet.com.au was offering AFL Supercoach markets for 2013 I was that excited I had to close the ice cream van for the day and head home to study the form with Jock.
The key to betting my friends is to find that right balance in risk. As much as I love him, my old pal Jock Reynolds strikes me as the kind of dude who would waltz down to the Seaford TAB and plonk $50 on a roughie. No point in that. But at the same time you don’t wanna be like that old tightarse Mr. Crimmins and carefully place $5 on Collingwood to beat GWS by over 39.5 points. He’ll hardly be able to even buy a light beer with that return. Of course I must remind youse all to gamble responsibly, just keep it fun.
Jock and I I will be getting all over this before they adjust the odds coz there is some serious value in these new market at the moment my friends.
If you jump over to sportbet.com.au using this link (click here) they will give you a $150 free bet at the moment with your first deposit if you tell em Jock sent you. You’ll notice that there is a ‘Most Supercoach Points’ market. The first one I want to have a look at is the forwards market. As Jock says though.. only do this for a bit of fun folks.. some fellas I know have been mega messed up by getting carried away with gambling.
Most overall points for a forward
- No surprises, Lance Franklin is hot favourite at $2.75. However I must remind you all community friends, the market is based on total points amassed during the season rather than the highest average. Franklin averaged the most points out of any of the forwards in 2012, but in terms of amassing the highest total score…he wasn’t even close. This is because he only managed 16 games through injury. It’s worth noting that only ONCE in his career has Franklin played every single game in the home and away season. Not only that but since 2009, Franklin has not played more than 20 home and away games in a season. It has to be assumed in 2013 that he’ll once again miss games through either suspension or injury. Therefore I’ll be taking a bit of a risk here and ruling out Franklin for this market.
- As we look through the rest of the options, it’s actually pretty easy to nail it down to one option. Dayne Zorko ($7.00) is a super young player, but in only his second season does he have the ability to consistently churn out decent scores? Whilst I won’t completely rule him out, I’m reasonably confident he won’t score the most total points out of those forwards in the market.
- Tom Hawkins ($9.00) and Taylor Walker ($8.00) are both key forwards – so generally speaking they won’t be anywhere near it. Rule out.
- Love the old dude Paul Chapman ($8.00) but he’s not getting any younger. Can’t see him improving this season and;
- Steve Johnson ($8.00) also isn’t consistent enough in my opinion.
- This leaves Tom Rockliff ($5.50). Out of all those players listed in the market, Rockliff amassed the most points (2140) in 2012 and played 22 games. Not only this but he is also a genuine midfielder, so he doesn’t have to be kicking goals in order to rack up big scores. At $5.50 I think he represents great value and I’ll certainly be having a nibble at it. Youse guys should all jump on too!
The highest individual score for the year
The next market I want to have a look at is the ‘Highest Score of the Year.’ Now I know you all are probably thinking that this one’s way too hard to predict but I believe there is some serious value in the market that’s worth having a wager on.
- The favorite, Gary Ablett ($6.00), deserves to be at the top of the market. The first way to measure the potential of a player scoring a huge score is analysing how many times they cracked the 150 points mark in a season. In the case of Ablett, in 2012 he scored 150 or more points on a whooping 8 occasions.
- Compare that to third favourite Dane Swan ($10) – who only managed to crack the 150 point barrier on 3 occasions. Therefore, I’m relatively confident in ruling him out.
- Using this theory, I’m fairly confident in ruling out Chris Judd ($17.00), Dayne Beams ($21.00), Scott Pendlebury ($21.00), Marc Murphy ($21.00) and Trent Cotchin ($21.00). Winning the highest score of the year is all about having that ‘X Factor’ in your game; because as we all know Supercoach rewards players who perform well in the last quarter. When you’re trying to pick a winner for this market, you need to find a player who you know has that special ‘something’ to his game and can basically single-handily win games for his team on his day.
- Whilst this market is certainly a wide open one with plenty of worthy candidates, the three players I most fancy to have the highest individual score in 2013 are Ablett, Lance Franklin ($8.00) and Patrick Dangerfield ($15.00). All three of these dudes are gonna rack up some massive scores in 2013, but in terms of cracking the magical 200 point mark I believe Dangerfield and Franklin are a better chance to achieve this than Ablett. Sure, it’s highly likely that Ablett will have more scores over 150 than Dangerfield and Buddy but in a side that is again likely to lose a lot of games this year, it makes it very hard for Ablett to get that match-winning score over 200. Obviously he may well prove me wrong but I’ve gone a bit cold on him. This leaves the Danger and Buddy.
- Dangerfield had a genuine breakout season last year, where he finally managed to average more than 100 points in a season. To further justify just how much Dangerfield improved last year, his average points in 2012 were almost 40 points higher than what it was in 2011! I’ll tell you all now, I’m expecting something very, very special from Patty Dangerfield in 2013 and for this reason I’ll be placing my hard-earned coin on him to have the highest individual score in 2013. $15 is a superb value for Dangerfield so I suggest you get on soon as I expect those odds to be dramatically shortened once me and my boys starting placing our bets!
- And, just quietly – if you’re looking for a bit of a roughie, at $31 Brendon Goddard could be your man. We all know he is a superb player and I can’t see a move to Essendon being too detrimental to his game. At least with all that extra cash he’s getting he can join me in the Mahogany room at Crown.
Most overall Supercoach points per team
Another market that caught my eyes was the ‘Most Points Per Team.’ In particular, I like the look of the Greater Western Sydney Giants market.
- Callan Ward ($2.65) is the deserved favourite having racked up the most points out of any Giants player in 2012 with 2130. Although at $2.65 there isn’t a lot of value, I can’t see any of the Giants players getting anywhere near him in 2013.
- Jonathan Giles ($3.25) had a very good first season but as was the case with Zac Smith from Gold Coast, I think he may find the rigors of AFL footy a lot tougher in his second season and I’m expecting his scores to slightly slide this year.
- Toby Greene ($3.50) is just one of the many superb young players GWS have got their hands on. He’s a ball magnet and someone who you can probably count on to get more possessions than Ward. However Greene’s disposals aren’t as damaging as Ward’s and this is reflected through his Supercoach average being 12 points lower than Ward’s in 2012. If anyone is going to get close to Ward, I’m confident it’ll be Greene rather than Giles but I’m expecting Callan Ward to take this one out in a canter.
- So I reckon youse all should get all over the $2.65 offered for Ward (they should be shorter) and you can thank me with a free latte down on Lygon St at the end of the year.
- In the other ‘Most Points Per Team’ categories you’ll notice that Sportsbet are only offering odds on GWS, Hawthorn and Geelong. Hawthorn’s highest scoring player will either be Sam Mitchell ($2.20) or Lance Franklin ($2.75). I’d go with Mitchell as per the same reasons I spoke about Franklin in the Forwards category. As for the Cats I believe it’s a one horse race. Joel Selwood ($1.80) should take that one out with ease.
Most overall Supercoach points Backline
The last market I‘m keen on is the ‘Most Supercoach Points Backs’.
- Although I did mention before that I’m not expecting Brendon Goddard ($3.50) move to Essendon be very detrimental to his game, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if his fantasy scores decreased and I’m happy to be against him here.
- As many of the community picked up in the NAB Cup, Bryce Gibbs ($4.50) is going to spend a lot more time in the midfield this year. Not only does this mean he will get more possessions, but he will also get a lot more contested footy – something that was missing from his game in 2012. As Jock mentioned, during the NAB Cup, out of his 18 possessions half of them were contested. More contested possessions will be hugely beneficial for his Supercoach scores and I’m expecting a sharp rise in his scores this year. The advantage Gibbs has over the rest of the field is that he can play as a genuine midfielder. So you blokes should all listen up when I tell you that Bryce Gibbs is going to have a breakout year this season and at $4.50 I’ll be having a real dip at that. Get on!
MOST SUPERCOACH POINTS IN THE MIDFIELD
As for the midfielders groups – I believe Group 1 is too close to call and it will go down right to the wire as there are some super midfielders in that groups.
- I’ll be having some small novelty bets on Rory Sloane ($6.00) in Group 3 (predicting a big breakout season for Sloane) and Sam Mitchell ($6.00) in Group 2. And at $4.50, my money will be on Ivan Maric for the most Supercoach points out of the ruckmen. The Flying Mullet is one of my favourite players in the AFL and I believe we’re going to see a changing of the guard this year and Ivan Maric will be crowned the premier ruckman of the competition.