The mathematician does not study pure mathematics because it is useful; he studies it because he delights in it and he delights in it because it is beautiful. J.H.Poincare (1854-1912)
I have this quote printed on A4 80 gsm paper and pinned on the cork board in my study. I have always delighted in mathematics and in the elegant simplistic beauty of numbers. Work colleagues, people at schools I attended growing up, shop keepers and yes – even Jock himself – have always perplexed me. Nothing seems predictable in the realm of human interaction.
Numbers are a haven for me. In an unpredictable and often illogical world they have been – and always will be – a close and predictable friend.
Last week I flexed my considerable mathematical muscle to provide a trend line depicting the ebb and flow of an AFL player’s Supercoach output in each year of his human development. Click here to review this piece.
Today I would like to hone in on a small portion of this graph that I will coin….
THE BREAKOUT ZONE
You see friends of this fantasy football community… numbers can be a beautiful thing in the Supercoach and/or AFL Fantasy arena. A close inspection of last week’s data reveals that we have a higher probability of successful selection of a break out player if we concentrate on players in between the age of 20 and 22. I would like to remind the community that this data was derived from a statistical study of 31 successful Supercoach players.
Correct.. not a sample size befitting a Nobel Prize study but a significant cross section of successful Supercoach warriors of 7+ years in the system nonetheless.
I would like to provide a brief rundown on some of the players of note that fall in the break out zone in season 2013:
Jack WattsDEF & FWD | Melbourne Football Club | 21 years | 55 games | $460,100 Supercoach | $360,600 DT
Certainly displayed signs of emergence last weekend in the NAB Cup. The progressive build up of his annual Supercoach average over the past 4 seasons suggests to me that he has a rather high probability of breakout. (26, 54, 75 then 86 in season 2012). Dual positional eligibility provides an additional dimension of flexibility. Attractive.
Jack TrengoveMID | Melbourne Football Club | 21 years | 59 games | $400,800 Supercoach | $391,300 DT
His first 2 seasons were impressive but we observed a reduction in output during 2012. In addition to this a foot injury around the festive period stymied an effective preseason before it grew wings. Low likelihood of emergence this season.
Mitchell DuncanMID | Geelong Football Club | 21 years | 51 games | $429,100 Supercoach | $420,500 DT
A bulding resume of Supercoach output over the past 3 seasons (58, 75 then 80 in season 2012) which fits the profile we are seeking here. Has had considerable midfield time and must be steeling himself for a season as one of the mainstays of the Geelong midfield. Would like to have seen slightly more development is season 2012 but a very reasonable and unique option for the mid price smoky hunter.
Nathan “Teen Wolf” FyfeMID | Fremantle Football Club | 21 years | 50 games | $498,800 Supercoach | $458,500 DT
His prowess and ability is no secret to any of us. Nor is his injury susceptibility. The seasoned statistician shudders to think what this potential fantasy monolith could produce with a clear run with injury. Averaged 108 Supercoach points in just his second season in the AFL in 2011 before an injury ravaged 2012. Has had surgery and has been “burning” up the track. High risk. Higher reward?
Clancee PearceMID | Fremantle Football Club | 22 years | 50 games | $487,400 Supercoach | $436,000 DT
On the upper end of the age limit with regard to break out eligibility as hypothesized in this article… but included herewith nonetheless. The main reason being that 2012 was the first season that young Clancee was seriously considered by his coach – with Ross Lyon taking a particular liking to the cut of his jib. With an impressive introduction to the regular midfield rotation at Fremantle last season and at this age and/or games played bracket he is particularly attractive. Jock has him in his team as we speak.
MID | Gold Coast Suns Football Club | 20 years | 36 games | $521,900 Supercoach | $438,200 DT
A prodigious talent. Prodigious. Improved his first season average of 67 Supercoach points in 2011 up to 92 in 2012. I have observed a significant thickening and strengthening in the trunk of his torso this pre season and I believe that this rapid increase in output is likely to continue in season 2013. Under the wing of Karmichael Hunt (an elite attitude) and shadowing Gary Ablett (the greatest fantasy footballer we have seen) is a formula that MUST reap significant dividends.
DEF & MID | Essendon Football Club | 20 years | 43 games | $450,000 Supercoach | $439,000 DT
Strange output pattern in his first two seasons with a steady average of around 84 Supercoach points per season. Looked adept in a midfield role during Essendon’s first NAB Cup clash and we can all expect to see more of this during the season proper. Another with talent dripping from every extremity… to be considered as a defense option.
MID | North Melbourne Football Club | 21 years | 61 games | $450,000 Supercoach | $439,000 DT
Jack enters his fifth season in the cut and thrust of an AFL season and as Jock would say “it is time to step up and be counted”. Has stagnated at an average of 80 over the past 2 season which is understandable for a young man who has broken his leg twice already. With a season between him and any broken leg shenanigans could this be the year for Jack? A member of a North Melbourne list containing no less that ten players who are 21. It must be concluded that based on this statistic alone it is likely that the overall output of the North Melbourne Football Club is likely to increase in season 2013.
MID | North Melbourne Football Club | 21 years | 54 games | $412,800 Supercoach | $387,500 DT
From all reports Ben has been rather impressive internally this pre season. Click here. This number 5 draft pick started to fulfill his considerable potential late last season with some impressive output and is statistically set to continue on in this vein in season 2013. Averages of 72, 54 and 78 Supercoach points in his first two seasons. See also Ryan Bastinac for a similar profile.
Shaun AtleyDEF | North Melbourne Football Club | 20 years | 39 games | $380,400 Supercoach | $311,200 DT.
Has switched to become a purely defense eligible option in season 2013… ironic that he looks likely to be swung back into the midfield at North Melbourne this season. Looked impressive during their first NAB clash and will be a relatively popular defense midpriced option this season. Averages of 47 and 71 in his first two seasons of AFL football.
MID | Greater Western Sydney Football Club | 21 years | 50 games | $424,700 Supercoach | $380,700 DT.
Interesting study this. A steady rise in Supercoach output from 71 up to 78 for the number one draft pick in his first two seasons then a very slight rise to 79 in his first season with Greater Western Sydney. Some suggesting that he will be unburdened this season with the emergence of a plethora of GWS midfield talent which could prompt a considerable increase in output. Will watch this one from afar with interest.
FWD & MID | Richmond Football Club | 21 years | 63 games | $473,500 Supercoach | $437,100 DT
If pure talent was the yard stick young Dustin would have to be considered drastically under priced. But it seems that this price is “about right” when one takes into account the attitude related risk that one takes into a season of Supercoach or Dreamteam with Dustin. However… Mark Williams is apparently on the case and the signs are all pointing towards a fit and firing Dustin this season.. we’ll see. Jock’s clumsy emotion driven observations re: Dustin this season are worth a read. Click here.
MID | Sydney Football Club Premiers 2013 | 20 years | 32 games | $379,500 Supercoach | $343,600 DT
Incurred the wrath of the vest on several occasions last season in a robust Sydney outfit that would later go on to win the Premiership Cup. Expect his to move into the midfield this season as Sydney looks to inject youth into the team with ageing stars Jude Bolton, Adam Goodes and McVeigh in the twilight of their careers. Jock quite interested in Luke as an option this season. Best afield for Sydney is its clash with GWS in NAB round 1.
DEF | Adelaide Football Club | 21 years | 36 games | $347,200 Supercoach | $329,500 DT
Was a strong candidate to come in off the fringe at Adelaide to become a fixture in the midfield before breaking a collarbone a few weeks ago. A blow to Adelaide… will be interesting to note who slips into the vacuum that Brodie’s absence creates. Watch for this young Lion mid season.