Patrick Dangerfield – to another level in 2013?

Filed in 2013 Supercoach Midfielders, Supercoach and Dreamteam Bargains by on February 6, 2013 • views: 1281

AFL Fantasy DANGERFIELDOver the last few weeks I have gone through the 6 players that finished with Super Elite status in 2012.

If you are just getting into the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community for another year or if you’re new to the Jock Community there will be links at the bottom of this page for you to catch up on my previous articles. Over the next few weeks I will be looking at a few players from the next bracket of Supercoach Premiums “The Elites”, starting today with Patrick Dangerfield.

This kid had been tipped for pretty big things since he was drafted at pick 10 in the 2007 national draft. Last season we finally saw him fulfil his potential and then some. From an AFL Fantasy point of view you would have picked up Paddy priced to average 80.3 points at $435,400 at the start of last season and he would go on to average 118.9 points, increasing his average by 37.6 points a game. That’s right I said THIRTY-SEVEN point SIX points. This was easily that largest points increase of any player who finished with Premium, Elite or Super Elite status. This made Patrick Dangerfield the best initial pick of the 2012 Supercoach season.

So what contributed to such a breakout year for Paddy??

Let’s start by looking at his stats shall we.

  • He averaged 15.6 kicks, 11.1 handballs, 0.9 goals and 3.1 tackles a game. 
  • Not bad numbers in the disposal count ranked 14th in disposals per game
  • Was a little behind in the tackle count and goals per game on some of the more polished Elite and Super Elite players in the competition. 
  • However if we delve a little deeper and look at the type of possessions won we learn that Paddy finished the comp ranked 1st in total inside 50’s, 2nd in total contested possessions, 3rd in total clearances and 3rd in total kicks. 
  • Just in case anybody doesn’t know what this all means, to put it simply you are sitting on a Supercoach GOLD mine. Add to this the fact that he was ranked 18th for Total Time on Ground, which just shows that he has a massive tank to go with his impressive contested numbers and at least you can understand where the 37.6 points per game increase has come from.

Why did we see such a massive improvement in his stats in 2012 and what can we expect in 2013?

Well there really are a number of reasons for such an increase in his stats but the biggest of those would be the appointment of Brenton Sanderson as Adelaide coach back in September 2011. Now I could write an entire article on his impact but to break it down simply Sanderson has adopted a very simple game plan that sees Adelaide target the breakdown as a key area for winning the ball. Once they get the pill they kick the ball forward and inside the forward 50 as quickly and as often as possible. Granted it’s a little more complicated than that but the net effect saw Adelaide’s contested possession numbers soar along with their kick to handball ratio and inside 50’s.

We saw Patrick Dangerfield play the majority of his time in the forward line in 2011 under Neil Craig. Sanderson saw the potential to use Paddy as the quick, powerful and fully committed inside midfielder that would suit the game plan that he wanted to adopt. The rest as they say is History. After a reasonably slow start to the season he went on to dominate in all those key aspects around the breakdown. Winning contested possessions. Winning clearances and pumping the ball inside 50 in a very successful Adelaide outfit. The only negative we can pull from Patrick Dangerfield’s stats from last year is that he was ranked 4th in total clangers. However when you dissect the nature of Adelaide’s game plan it’s going to be extremely difficult to find a target every time when you kick the ball forward with every opportunity you get, blind or otherwise. This may explain the somewhat erratic nature of Paddy’s Supercoach scoring in 2012.

Patrick Dangerfied Supercoach 2013

Patrick scored below 100 on 9 occasions last year with a low score of 86. Although the number of times he dropped below 100 is not ideal a low score of 86 is very solid and shows even in his poor displays he was very much still influencing the game. In fact he only dropped below 20 disposals twice and in his two lowest scores he had 23 and 28 disposals respectively, with only his efficiency letting him down. And just to give you some sort of reference to just how good that low score is, Ablett recorded a low of 64 and Pendlebury recorded a low 62. On the upper scale of his scoring he produced scores of over 130 on 8 occasions which included scores of 169, 174 and a massive high of 187.

That is impressive.

Ok so we have looked  at what Paddy managed to produce in 2012 but I can tell you’re all itching for me to get to the meat and spuds and tell you how Paddy will go in 2013. I have being keeping an eye on the “How is your team going folks” page and I have noticed that Paddy isn’t a very popular pick. He seems to be overlooked over almost all the other options in his price bracket. I was almost tempted to keep what I’m about to tell you to myself but we here at the Jock Renyolds Fantasy community aren’t for keeping the best kept secrets in the game to ourselves. We like to get you the best information you can get.

That’s why I’m telling you Patrick Dangerfield is an absolute lock in my 2013 side.

If we go back to his 2012 scores I’d just like to point out a few things.

  • Rounds 1-7, new coach, new game plan, new role – finding his feet: averaged 105.1. 
  • Rounds 8-15 learning and understanding new coach, new game plan, new role: averaged 110.7
  • Rounds 16-23 nailed down and fully embraced roll and game plan: averaged 138

In 2013 Patrick will be starting the year where he left off in 2012 from the point of view that he has now played a full year as a key inside midfield contested ball winner in a successful team. He now knows what is expected of him and his teammates. There will not be a period where he will have to learn a new role in 2013. It should be noted that 5 of his 9 scores below 100 came in his first 7 rounds where he was “finding his feet”.

Here is the real scary thing. He is only 22 years of age, with his prime still very much ahead of him and there is still plenty of room and scope for improvement going forward. One area of his stats where I expect to see an improvement in 2013 is his tackle count. Adelaide actually finished 16th in the competition for tackles per game and 16th for tackle differential at -6.5 tackles a game. Brenton Sanderson will be very much aware of this and I believe it will be one of the few areas that Adelaide will be targeting for a vast improvement in 2013. This then can only be a good thing for Dangerfield who currently lags behind the other super elite players in this category. And just in case you don’t truly understand the importance of a high tackle count, when Dangerfield scored his SC high score of 187 in 2012 he had a season high tackle count of 8 in that game.

Don’t be surprised to see Paddy’s goal numbers increase too. Paddy failed to kick a goal in 10 games last season but again half of these occurred in the first 7 games in that period that I have termed “finding his feet”. If you also look at natural progression with that extra experience gained in and around the pack I would expect that he will also improve on not only his total possessions but also his efficiency.

I still expect him to rank high on the clanger count because I don’t see Adelaide changing their game plan too much, if at all in 2013. After all they were only one kick away from a grand final berth in 2012. But instead of finishing 4th in total clangers as he did in 2012 he may finish around 9th or 10th which will still make a huge contribution to his SC scores. With that element of inefficiency I still expect to see a few scores under 100 in 2013.. but far fewer than the 9 in 2012. On the other side with the expected improvement in key areas I expect to see even more monster scores over 130 and if everything all comes together in the one game don’t be surprised if we gain another member to the 200 point club.

The only aspect of Dangerfield that I am slightly concerned about is his durability factor. This might seem a little strange because he hasn’t missed a game in the last two seasons but much like Joel Selwood at Geelong, Dangerfield has very little regard for his body. He will always put his body on the line to win the ball which every coach and fan loves to see but the nature of his play is likely to leave him concussed and may force him off the ground early and maybe even miss the next round. It’s happened to Selwood in the last two seasons, however there is nothing anybody can do about it and a lot will depend on luck and what mood those “Supercaoch Gods” are in.

One last piece of trivia that I would like to leave you with

Let’s do a quick comparison with the undisputed king of Fanstay, Gary Ablett. Ablett had his break out year in 2007 averaging 114.2pts per round. His roll changed from a forward to a midfielder from the previous year. Ranked 1st for inside 50’s, had 6 scores below hundred with a low of 68 and had 6 scores above 130 with a high of 170. Look familiar to anything we just discussed ??? Oh and then he went on to breakout again in 2008 increasing his averaging to 132.2pts per game.

Anyone thinking they might have another look at their team with Dangerfield in it ??

More from the desk of the Mad Irishman:

 

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Comments (48)

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  1. Shimma says:

    You are a great writer, Mick. Does anyone think I can fit Danger into this mdifield? Gaz, Swan, Pendles, Cotch, Fyfe, Mundy. Thinking about getting rid of Swan

    • jockreynolds says:

      Just sitting back here at Jock studio… cracked open a quick Melbourne bitter after reading this one.
      He bloody does this to me The Mad Irishman.. just when I've got me mind set a certain way he challenges even this old fantasy footy warhorse to look at things again. Hats off Mick.
      Hats off.

      • jimbotraralgon says:

        yep Jock.

        I really want Danger but I just can't give up shuey or swan for him.

        hold tight jock, remember your own advise….focus, there will be (and always will be) rumbling about this player or that.

        cheers.

        • moncon says:

          He's my first pick this year. Played 22 rds last season, versus Swan's 18 and Shuey's 19. Big deal I know, but I have some golden rules I am applying to my team this year, and one of them is that all the premium mids I pick before R1 must have played 22 rounds last season. These are supposed to be Locks – they're supposed to be there for you every week come what may, right? At the moment I'm looking at a 4 Premo, 6 Rook set-up, so my four premiums will come from Danger, Kennedy, Deledio, Boyd, Watson, Cotchin, Tuck, Jack, or Thompson. I can't have both Thompson and Danger (although I did last year and it was great, Scotty T's a legend) and I don't want 3 Tigers so it will be Deledio, and I reckon Kennedy's got a great year ahead of him, so he's in, and that leaves it between Boyd, Watson, or Jack, and I'm leaning to Mr Consistency, "Boring" Mat Boyd (again) so the R1 line-up will be Danger, Deledio, Kennedy, and Boyd (haven't analysed Byes yet so might change), and these guys are very likely to play all 22 rounds. Then I still have room for Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, and one other after their prices drop (hopefully), and after my rooks' prices have increased (hopefully).

          • moncon, agree with your thinking regarding "Durability Factor" .. not sold on Boyd however .. Never value for money when he will jump from scoring 70 one round and 130 the next .. will be able to pick him up way cheaper during the year ..

      • Nathan says:

        G'day Jock, this has nothing to do with Dangerfield but on your next podcast could you talk about Simon Black and his status, returning and if hes worth the punt? I had no knowledge of him prior to this season and brought him (well that was a mistake). Anyway thanks alot Jock.
        From a fellow Fantasy Footballer.

    • @PeterHiggo says:

      Given the AFL's recent undertakings re: ASADA ect. And given Swan's "mid season break" ….. Without speculating, I feel he becomes too much of a risk for that price.

      • jimbotraralgon says:

        pete, are you seriously suggesting that swan may not be a major player in this years season?

        well if you are right you may have found a solution to my issue of trying to get dangerfield into the side.

        cheers.

    • Shimma, i'd be of the same thinking of Higgo here, Swan out Danger in

  2. Tim says:

    Very nice mick I can’t fit him in right now in my side but he is most likely the first upgrade for my mids during the season

  3. @MRB37 says:

    Great stuff, Mick. Love the Danger, 2nd favourite player at the Crows (Behind Tex Walker).

    I've seen a few people post that they didn't want to pick Danger due to Sanderson mentioning he would be spending time forward. This is nothing to worry about, Danger's contested ball winning is far too important to the Crows game plan for him to spend huge stretches out of the guts. He does rotate forwards, but so do Scott Thompson and Sam Jacobs for rests. I think what you'll see is Brad Crouch used in much the way Danger was his first few years, playing up forward and then getting a few minutes in the middle, which would probably be an ideal time to give Danger a spell.

    RE: Adelaide's tackling. This has been their main focus this pre-season, but you have to understand that they're still a work in progress in this area. A lot of the Crows players spent years with Neil Craig and his "implied pressure" zoning stuff, so tackling was never a focus or part of the gameplan.

    • MRB37, great to get to insight from fans of clubs in question. I hope i've assumed right in that your a crows fan ??

      Yes I expect so see an improvement in the tackle count next year which as I said will bring huge benefits to SC scores. Obviously can't get down to watch any Adelaide training so if you have any inside scoops don't be afraid to pop them up on here.

      Great stuff mate

      • @MRB37 says:

        You are correct sir, big Crows fan here.

        I unfortunately haven't been able to get down to the Crows training this year as I've been working dayshift for the past two months, so i'm currently relying on 2nd hand information at the moment. Will report any encouraging news I hear though!

  4. jimbotraralgon says:

    dangerfield at m5 or the break out kid Shuey

    Going with Shuey allows a little bit of cash to spread around the rookies if needed.

  5. Nick says:

    Started getting hard tags in finals over Scott Thompson and did not perform well at the time, which is why I’ve replaced him with Swan.

    • Simon says:

      Agree with Nick on this one. Once opposition teams took their best tagger off of ST onto Danger he struggled. He only averaged 82 in the finals last year

      • BMO says:

        Dont forget guys that finals footy is a different style of footy compared to the regular season. Most game plans go out the window come finals and it turns to contested 1 on 1 footy. Danger will b a beast in 2013. Welcome.

    • Very valid point guys and as Simon pointed out he did only average 82 in finals.

      Not sure it was entirely down to a hard tag or a combination of "finials pressure" and the opposition he was playing. Remember it was his first finals campaign and sometimes you can try too hard. Granted Freo doubled up on him because he absolutely destroyed them a few weeks before hand. Freo ultimately paid the price though and lost that game. In the other two finals games he still managed 28 and 21 touches respectively.

      So you boys not sold on Danger for 2013 ??

      • Nick says:

        Not for me, but definitely an upgrade target. Atm I have Swan, Pendles, J.Selwood and Cotchin ahead of him.

  6. Tex says:

    Thanks Mick,

    Looks like i’ll slot him into M4 instead of Murphy.

    Great article!!

  7. Dools says:

    Ah Mick, Can’t fault the logic behind the article…Now for the 2nd time stop telling people about my Premium Locks….LOL

    Great read mate. Well done

  8. choppers says:

    Dangerfield or Cotchin for M4 is my predicament. Any thoughts?

  9. Simon says:

    Ivan Maric was actually the biggest breakout player for 2012, increasing his average by 44 SC points for the year. Rodney was second.

    • Simon, spot on
      poor old Ivan slipped on past me when I made that statement regarding Danger.
      So your not a fan of Danger for 2013 then ??

      • Simon says:

        Hey Mick, Danger isn't in my team at present, but it is mid-February and things can change from the NAB cup. A big upgrade target if he doesn't make my initial 30. Another quality article though, well done!

  10. Jimmy says:

    Not sure who I should trade danger for. Murphy, cotchin or pendles?

  11. rexinator says:

    my mids are ablett, swan,pendles,dangerfield,marc murphy and embley, viney and o'meara..

    may get swan out for boyd yet as I do believe he is on drug watch list ready to be sanctioned..

  12. Tim says:

    Hey community should I have dangers over Cotchin or even dangers over swan
    Need your helps guys not sure who I should have more

  13. mizza8541 says:

    Defs:
    Goddard Gibbs, Birchall, Duffiled, Pittard, docherty, Subs: stevenson terlich

    Mids:
    Abett, pendlebury, cotchin, murphy, dangerfield, o'meara, viney Subs: t.mitchell, b.crouch

    Rk:
    Cox, leuenberger Subs: witts, currie

    Fwd:
    buddy, rockliff, tex walker, n.bock, sam mayes, tom lee Subs: b.macaffer, b.murdoch

    (Not sure about bock though, or duffield)
    Any comments would be much appreciated!! :D

  14. Dan says:

    I have swan in my team. Should I keep him? Who would be your top 5 midfielders in your team?

    • jimbotraralgon says:

      hey dan.

      I am looking at the top ten mids and make sure that my final 8 have these players in some makeup.

      the best 10 mids by year end….IMO…….Gary (must be the greatest SC player of all time?)….at 2 Pendles, 3rd Cotchin, 4th Dangerfield, 5th Swan, 6th Kennedy, 7th Shuey, 8th Watson, 9th Joelwood, 10th Murphy or K Jack or Fyfe

      no Beams or Delids.

  15. rexinator says:

    good team mizza,

    i personally would not go with bock too much uncertainity

    get pav in instead of tex

    • mizza8541 says:

      i reckon tex will dominate as the main target in the foward line. and pav is not getting any younger…
      ill see nab cup form

  16. JP1 says:

    Hi all, having digested this information with regards Danger – what would be the better option between…

    Marc Muphy and LeCras

    or

    Danger and JJ Kennedy

    Thoughts?

  17. @MRB37 says:

    Crows had an internal trial match today, word is Dangerfield tore the place up. Only a trial match, but it's still encouraging news to hear.

    • Thanks MRB, you've got me all excited for footy again .. was sulking here all day questioning if i was going to be able to get into with all the question marks over performance enhancing drugs .. think I can

  18. Smithy says:

    Swan or danger??

  19. dools says:

    Hi Smithy at this stage I'd stick with Swan BUT Danger is just as good with out the off field hassels WHY not both?

  20. mizza8541 says:

    Danger is a lock for me!
    my big conundrum is murphy or selwood?

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