Peter Higginbotham’s Punt Machine – Week 8

Filed in Talking Strategy by on July 5, 2012 • views: 499

I have resisted the temptation to tweak The Machine given its recent run of poor game modelling. By adjusting my formula with a Supercoach Team Average factor I have noticed that the last few weeks would have yielded more favorable outcomes.

However, I owe it to The Machine to see this through. It is still only slightly down on average game errors and still slightly up in terms of profit. I ask you all to be patient and of course, get ready for The Machine’s beautiful offspring to be launched Round 1, 2013.

ALSO UNMISSABLE PRE ROUND 15 GOLD: Jock’s Round 15 Video   |   Round 15 Cattle Market   |   Rd 15 SC Podcast

Table 1 – Last Weeks Summary;

Round      14   Winner   Margin Machine     Error Sportsbet   Error
Carlton V Hawks Hawks 50 40 26.5
C’Wood V Freo C’Wood 29 2 9.5
Adel. V Tigers Adelaide 19 23 2.5
WCE V G.Coast WCE 126 64 56.5
Sydney V GWS Sydney 94 42 24.5
Ess. V Doggies Essend. 84 46 54.5
Geelong V Port Geelong 38 15 11.5
Brisbane V Demons Brisbane 61 49 42.5
Saints V North North 33 73 67
Average    Error 39.3 32.8

Table 2 – The Machine’s Weekly Record;

         Ave. Game Error             Line Bet Record
The Machine Sporstbet No. Bets Wins Profit/Loss
Week1 41 38.39 5 1 ($15.40)
Week2 27.44 31.17 4 3 $8.80
Week3 19.11 25.78 6 6 $27.60
Week4 34.22 43.67 5 5 $23.00
Week5 21.78 15 4 1 ($10.40)
Week6 19.4 24.9 3 2 $4.20
Week7 47.7 36.5 4 1 ($10.40)
Week8 39.3 32.8 5 1 ($15.40)
Ave. Error 31.25 31.02 36 20 $12.00

And now for the all important predictions for Round 15;

Round      15 Machine Winner  Machine Margin   Sportsbet Line   Difference  Machine’s Bet Stake
C’Wood V Carlton C’Wood 47 29.5 17.5 Back PIES at the line $5
North V WCE WCE 31 15.5 15.5 Back WCE at the line $5
Melb. V Tigers Tigers 52 34.5 17.5 Back TIGERS at the line $5
Sydney V Brisbane Sydney 25 31.5 6.5 No bet
St.Kilda V Essend. Essendon 14 20.5 6.5 No bet
Port. V Adelaide Adelaide 22 25.5 3.5 No bet $5
Hawks V GWS Hawks 68 90.5 22.5 Back GWS at the line $5
G.Coast V Geelong Geelong 69 56.5 12.5 Back CATS at the line             $5
Freo. V Doggies Freo. 34 32.5 1.5 No bet

This week will challenge The Machine as my initial feel is that most of Sportsbet’s lines are well set. To make things interesting for you, the reader of this post, I am proposing a side-bet;

If The Machine gets beaten again this week, I will release some of my spreadsheets on this post that help me formulate these margins!

This will be fun.

Yours in numeric faith,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (9)

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  1. A_OKeefe says:

    Hahaha. I reckon you've got at least 2, maybe 3 depending on Geelong. Lost money on them last week winning by so little :(

  2. Adam Kneale says:

    anyone know if jock has a video coming??

  3. The Peanut says:

    Care to elaborate on the team average adjustment factor. You inspired me to try my own formula and last week I also had a shocker.

    Thanks Higgo

  4. Shanen says:

    Excited to see the spreadsheets and formulas released…

    • chiknsmack says:

      It feels wrong to barrack against the machine, but agreed.

      FWIW, I like all the machine picks this week bar the Eagles.

  5. billy says:

    0 from 3 so far this week. the machine needs a tune up