Higgo’s Supercoach Punting Machine – Week 8

Filed in Talking Strategy by on June 28, 2012 • views: 616

The Machine took a serious beating in Round 13. So bad was the beating that it is now getting done by the overall Sportsbet line by 0.68 points per game.

Will it respond to its beating like North did last week? The beauty of this betting system is that, unlike North, it does not have feelings. It plays the game each week in precisely the same robotic manner – a manner pre-determined by my Supercoach team value comparison formula.

Some Round 13 output statistics;

  Round       13   Winner   Margin Machine     Error Sportsbet   Error
Syd. V    Geelong Sydney 6 16 2.5
Dogs V    Brisbane Brisbane 58 79 77.5
C’Wood V WCE C’wood 3 15 11.5
Freo V Ess. Essendon 24 36 19.5
Melb. V GWS Melbourne 78 70 55.5
North V Adel. North 32 70 52.5
Average   Game Error 47.7 36.5

And the overall 7 Week summary table;

         Ave. Game Error             Line Bet Record
The Machine Sporstbet No. Bets Wins Profit/Loss
Week1 41 38.39 5 1 -$15.40
Week2 27.44 31.17 4 3 +$8.80
Week3 19.11 25.78 6 6 +$27.60
Week4 34.22 43.67 5 5 +$23.00
Week5 21.78 15 4 1 -$10.40
Week6 19.4 24.9 3 2 +$4.20
Week7 47.7 36.5 4 1 -$10.40
Ave. Error 30.09 30.77 31 19 +$27.40

While I am still profiting from The Machine overall, my real interest lies in the line predicting accuracy of the model. So can The Machine respond more positively this week? Or will Sportsbet deliver another fatal blow.

Here is its Round 14 forecasting;

 Round      14 Machine Winner  Machine Margin   Sportsbet Line   Difference  Machine’s Bet Stake
Carlton V Hawks Hawks 10 23.5 13.5 Back BLUES at the line  $5
C’Wood V Freo C’Wood 31 38.5 7.5 No bet
Adel. V Tigers Tigers 4 Ade(16.5) 20.5 Back TIGERS at the line  $5
WCE V G.Coast WCE 62 69.5 7.5 No bet
Sydney V GWS Sydney 52 67.5 15.5 Back GWS at the line  $5
Ess. V Doggies Essendon 38 29.5 8.5 No bet
Geelong V Port Geelong 23 49.5 26.5 Back PORT at the line  $5
Brisbane V Demons Brisbane 12 18.5 6.5 No bet
Saints V North Saints 34 18.5 15.5 Back SAINTS at the line  $5

If I was to bring emotion into my analysis of The Machine’s output this week I would may say;

“Not bloody Port again!”  or “Has Crouching been fiddling with this! Not sure about a Richmond win in Adelaide.” and maybe even, “Didn’t GWS drop their bundle last week? Surely Sydney will destroy this line?’

All of these statements are based on my instinctive feel. I think I would rather trust in an analytical process – The Machine. And if at season’s end it is beaten by Sportsbet, I will be spending my summer break with my one and only true love, EXCEL, building a better model(Lies! I have already started).

Yours in numeric faith,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (5)

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  1. The Peanut says:

    Gone a bit quiet in here Higgo.

    Was it Jock that once said, "ye of little faith."

    I'm going again champ, crazy, but I figure I'm still up a few hundred, and it does make the games fun/tense.

    Go Machine!

  2. Jon Bon Jovi says:

    There is only one of those bets I can go into with confidence and its the saints at the line bet… very nervous with the other ones!

  3. Daz says:

    Higgo,

    I think The Machine is broken! :-( if I've checked correctly, Sportsbet has you covered in every game this round. The Machine seems to give a serious boost to weaker teams, especially GWS – they've been a bet against the line the last few weeks, if I'm not mistaken, and they've screwed the pooch on each occasion! Is there a tweak you could make to reflect this?

    I'm not a Machine basher, I've followed closely and was stoked when it scored me $260 from a $5 multi back in week 3 or 4… But for the last 4 weeks, The Machine has dropped the ball big time and I'm losing faith in Mathematics! Do you have an theories on what's gone wrong lately?

  4. Shanen says:

    1 out of 5 this week.

    I'm also a huge follower of the machine… haven't been sucked into the multi's though – as well advised from Higgo…

    But this week really does make it easy to draw back to the fact that punting is the fools game and we can never out predict the agency – given their lines are drawn from the money…

    Definitely not bashing the machine. Just a useless comment really… – but keep this segment going, and give us some assurance the machine is using all the right variables! Thanks Higoo!

  5. Cedric says:

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