Higgo’s Punting machine – Week 5

Filed in Talking Strategy by on June 7, 2012 • views: 580

Another good week for The Machine.

After 4 weeks and 20 bets, the data is starting to point in favor of The Machine line with 15 bets getting up – a 75% strike rate. I have put on $100 worth of bets and turned a profit of $44.

What I find most interesting is that The Machine line is clearly beating the Sportsbet predition(by 4.3 points per game). While this does not sound significant, it can give us a little leverage against the line and swing the balance in our favor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here are last week’s results;

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

The Machine has done its thing for Round 11 and formulated a few very interesting results;

Rd. 11 Formulated Winner  Formulated Margin   Sportsbet Line   Difference Higgo’s Bet Stake
Geelong V Carlton Geelong 38 14.5 23.5 Back CATS at the line $5
Richmond V Freo.  Richmond 24 30.5 6.5 No bet
G.Coast V Saints Saints 29 43.5 14.5 Back GCoast at the line $5
Essendon V Sydney  Sydney 12 (Ess)10.5 22.5 Back SYDNEY at the line $5
Port V Hawks  Port 4 (Hawks)26.5 30.5 Back PORT at the line $5
Melb. V C’wood C’wood 52 46.5 5.5 No bet

Sydney to beat Essendon? Port to beat Hawthorn?

I must have faith in The Machine.
Looking at the Port game, The Machine has favored Port mainly due to Hawthorn’s poor Break Even factor. The only Hawks with break-evens below their current average are Buddy, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Whitecross and The Shoe Maker(Port have 15 players). This three week rolling form factor, linked with a slight home ground advantage, has formulated Port winning by less than a kick.

For those Multi-punters out there, putting CATS line …. into …. GCOAST line ….. into … SYDNEY WIN …. into PORT WIN offers odds of around 35 – 1. A return of $175 for your $5. But Port couldn’t win could they?

Go well and let logic rule your decision making.

Yours analytically,

Peter Higginbotham.

Comments (6)

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  1. Stoney says:

    Good stuff higgo interesting there with port but could pay off :)

  2. Benn says:

    Higgo – Your football smarts have granted me the gift of turning a a single red back into 500 hundred smackaroos over the last two weeks… I tip my hat to you sir.. This week however I'm not feeling THAT confident in the machine.. I don't like the Sydney bet and the Port one to me seems a bit iffy… Nevertheless I would be a fool not to stick some form of currency on this, so I shall put down a 10'er, hoping to turn this into a greenback! May the force be with us all!

  3. Dorge says:

    I like it Higgo. Time to add a few of these to this weeks multis.

    Not sure about Sydney though, with Mags and Parko out

  4. Merlin says:

    think you're machine's gonna fail you this week bud

  5. stickyboi says:

    Didn't like the port option, so slipped Freo at the line instead..

    Should be 2/2.

    K.Simpson for most disposals was nice at $8 too :) :)

  6. Benny.. says:

    Spewin u can't predict injuries… Traded HMac for Sandi this week.