Higgo’s Supercoach Punting Machine – Week 3

Filed in Talking Strategy by on May 24, 2012 • views: 713

The Machine has kicked into gear – Now with 18 data points to compare, we are starting to get a better idea of its effectiveness.

Overall The Machine is just beating the Sportsbet line, however I am still losing. Remember, The Machine uses Supercoach Team values, Break-Evens and a few other factors to formulate a winning team and margin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here is a summary of The Machine’s Round 8 bets;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This brings me to The Machine’s balance sheet;

 

 

 

 

 

Are here is what The Machine has thrown up for Round 9;

Formulated Winner Formulated Margin  Sportsbet Line  Difference  Higgo’s Bet  Stake
Bulldogs V Geelong Geelong 12 29.5 17.5 Back Bulldogs at the line $5
Richmond V Hawthorn  Hawthorn 7 21.5 14.5 Back Richmond at the line $5
GC Suns V Port Adelaide Port Adelaide 34 12.5 21.5 Back Port at the line $5
St.Kilda V Sydney St. Kilda 21 Sydney(2.5) 23.5 Back St.Kilda at the line $5
GWS V Essendon  Essendon 42 no line No bet
Adelaide V Collingwood Collingwood 7 Adelaide(13.5) 20.5 Back Collingwood at the line $5
North V Brisbane Lions North 27 23.5 3.5 No bet
Carlton V Melbourne  Carlton 67 50.5 16.5 Back Carlton at the line $5
West Coast V Fremantle WCE 13 19.5 6.5 No bet

The Machine has gone for two under-dogs …. St.Kilda and Collingwood. While I feel an urge to back them to win at better value(last week’s two under-dogs both got up!), I must remain strong and stick to my rules(see previous weeks for specifics).

I am looking forward to this week’s games again. While I did lose last Friday night’s game (Cats V Pies), the added level of interest gained from the $5 bet was brilliant and in many ways, payed for itself. I look forward to my $5 Doggies bet to give a little more this Friday night.

Yours devoted to The Machine,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (29)

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  1. JohnnoB says:

    Like the Saints . What about Saints +40 @$7.20?

    • MJ says:

      Johnno B

      Sydney have only lost the two games all year and by 5pts and 29pts. I think the staints coulds get up but not by +40pts. Massive odds for a reason.

      Maybe just back them to win

  2. Stu says:

    The dog a good thing at line after tough game last week against the pies. Good work good stuff for me multi

  3. Tiny says:

    I'd suggest the machine will be well and truly off the mark… Don't rate it at all

    • JohnnoB says:

      Give us your tips then mate?? I think The Machine may have the Adelaide v Coll game way wrong … Like a few others though.

  4. Shanen says:

    Higgo, look forward to seeing the results this week and stronger confidence in your formula. Would be interested to set your criteria to 3 goals before betting, to see how much greater the success rate becomes…?

    I like your Saints bets most given its 23.5 point difference to the sports et line

  5. big fella says:

    gunna loose a bit of coin this week i reckon

    • Paul S says:

      Higgo has put it on the line, pun intended, how about you Big Fella?

      • big fella says:

        the wet weather is really gunna put a screw in the works. i would hold off on a couple. i like port, doggies, north and melbs. should be some multis put on for the sure things aswell

  6. Keffa says:

    4 winning bets from 9 attempts, about what I'd expect from flipping a coin. And at odds of less than $2…. but still, I can see the fun in it. Still not sure it's as much fun as simply picking the team you fancy!

    • Shanen says:

      fair point keffa…

      but a formula is a formula… lets just let big pete run it out… what is a 'win' in gambling?… when we lose the $100, then we can conclude the machine was a waste of brain power and time….

  7. Such Is Life says:

    Not sure how you managed to formulate a Collingwood win according to your factors, because I've got Adelaide to be a higher total SC value ($8,464,300 Adelaide to $8,305,900 Collingwood) and with home ground advantage. Break-evens must be adjusting those prices considerably!

    The thing that does go in Collingwood's favour is that they've got an 8 day break over Adelaide's 6 day break and a decent record against the Crows. (not sure if these are factored in to your machine?)

  8. MJ says:

    Higgo,

    I'm jumping on board using your formulated margins but instead of betting the line like you have I was going to bet on the "Cert" and I will be rolling my bet over. A cert in my book is 5 goals, and I have allowed a two goal and one pt buffer so my magic number is 43pts.

    Formulated Formulated Team BetFair Difference Odds

    Winner Margin Handicap Handicap

    Geelong 12 Bulldogs 62 50 BET 1.14

    Hawthorn 7 Richmond 52 45 BET 1.13

    Port Adelaide 34 Gold Coast 45 11 no bet

    St. Kilda 21 St. Kilda 32 53 BET 1.14

    Essendon 42 GWS 70 28 no bet

    Collingwood 7 Collingwood 43 50 BET 1.18

    North 27 Brisbane 54 27 no bet

    Carlton 67 Carlton 0 67 BET 1.08

    WCE 13 Fremantle 47 34 no bet

    Hope this table looks how it does prior to me hitting the submit Comment

    If not, sorry, but it basically says i'll be backing

    Bulldogs +62.5pts

    Richmond +52.5pts

    St Kilda +32.5pts

    Collingwood +43.5pts

    Carlton (to win)

    Rolling each bet will give me odds of 1.87 if I get each one right (ie. if I start with $50 i will get back $93.5). I lose it all if I get just one wrong :( there's that risk v reward again ??

    Well boys and girls go ahead a shoot me down :p

    • MJ says:

      Higgo if your trying to make sense of it my heading were:

      Formulated Winner, Formulated Margin, Team Handicap, BetFair Handicap, Difference, and Odds

      So I had for my first line under each heading reads:

      Geelong, 12, Bulldogs, 62, 50 BET, 1.14

      as 50 was the difference and is greater than my magic number of 43, i will back the bulldogs +62.5 pts

  9. MJ says:

    p.s it was in a table when I put it up, now not so much .. sorry

    • Sandy says:

      Well done MJ! I followed your bet. Will you be following this system again next week?

      Agree with Higgo, makes games more fun!

      • MJ says:

        Its not a well done for me, its Higgo's machine that did the work and yes I will most def have another go this week :D

        Because we have a buffer of 43pts to start with there wasn't too many heart in mouth moments. Will hope for the same results next week.

        Thanks Higgo

  10. Higgo says:

    Dear MJ,

    "shoot me down" – I don't know why anyone would! Jock is a big one for Community.

    Like your logic and will be hoping that;

    a. Buddy doesn't kick straight.

    OR

    b. Adelaide don't demolish Collingwood

    OR

    c. The Sydney Reid doesn't kick his first big bag.

    This is the problem with a multi, as the number of "ORs" increase, the RISKs escalate.

    @$1.87 …. you will earn every cent. GO YOU GOOD THING!!

    Thanks again MJ, your input in always valued. I have been discussing a few ideas with Jock re:rewarding Community members such as your good self.

    Stay tuned,

    Peter Higginbotham

    • MJ says:

      thanks higgo :D

      great week for the machine and as i was betting on the "cert" they all walked it in. Didn't get time to bet on the saints though so missed out on that game. oh well just Carlton today and surly they will get up over the dees :)

      this week will have a few of the doubters doubting ;)

  11. da Pest says:

    Hey Higgo -I like your Richmond bet. Ill be loading up. Is your machine formulating you some crumpet?

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Da Pest,

      In the year 2000, I developed a formula based spreadsheet I called, "The Wife Finder – 2000". Its output is at the stage where I must begin to question its effectiveness.

      Re: Richmond bet ….. Do you think the rain favors Richmond?

      Good luck,

      Peter Higginbotham

  12. mugPunta says:

    Half time of the collingwood game, I put all your lines in a multi Higgo.

    My shout if it gets up …… Looking bloody good!

    Go The Machine!!!!

    Thanks

  13. Shanen says:

    Looks like you are shouting everyone soon yeh???

    What a week for the machine!!

  14. the falcon says:

    Go the Machine, i also have put all your line bets in a multi besides the friday night game, fingers crossed carlton gets up.good job higgo

  15. Daz says:

    Love you Higgo! $5 multi on all your lines = $260 payout!! :-D Go the machine!

  16. the falcon says:

    Higgo you Mathematical genius just cleaned up $453.00 outlaying $15 on all your line bets in a multi besides fridays game.Love your work I owe you a beer or shout you some flowers and chocolates for that crumpet of yours to get you over the line!!

  17. Benn says:

    Another success story here Higgo… All of your line bets into 1 multi.. 50 to 1 odds.. Only a $5 on it but got to be happy with a $250 return! Eddie Betts just got us over the line :)

  18. Wallabydingo says:

    Thanks Higgo

    After perusal of you formula, Collingwood H2H + StKilda>15.5 came in at nearly $8. Solid.

    Might Add a few more lines to the multi this week.

  19. Keffa says:

    Holy cow! Higgo's punting machine seems to be revolutionising footy betting! I'll be all over it this week.