Higgo’s Supercoach Punting Machine – Week 2

Filed in Talking Strategy, The Jock Drawer by on May 18, 2012 • views: 659

 

Well, a disastrous first week with only one of the five line bets getting up!

 

Starting with $100, I am already down to $84.60. While it was unfortunate that the week offered a few form swings, I am confident of turning things around. I must take emotion out of it and trust in long-run probability. At first you don’t succeed,  try, try again – or fail. In case of the later, at least I will know my formula is ineffective.

For those  new to the page, I am using a formula for predicting game margins that simply compares team’s total playing Supercoach values. This is adjusted with a “form factor” which is calculated using players Break-Evens. The only other variables I compute are interstate travel factors, a home team advantage(if present) and a ground size factor.

Here is a summary of last week’s outcomes;

Rd. 7 Winner Winning Margin SC Punting Machine Points off Margain Sportsbet Line Points off Margain
Game 1 Hawthorn 66 Hawthorn 65 1 Hawks 48.5 17.5
Game 2 Adelaide 50  Geelong10 60  Cats 7.5 57.5
Game 3 GWS 27  Gold Coast 38 65 Gold Coast 22.5 59.5
Game 4 Richmond 29   Richmond 3 26 0 29
Game 5 Collingwood 58   Collingwood 15 43  Collingwood 27.5 30.5
Game 6 Essendon 61  Essendon 7 54 0 61
Game 7 Dogs 18  North 33 56 North 15.5 33.5
Game 8 Fremantle 40  Freo 21 19 Freo 33.5 6.5
Game 9 St.Kilda 24  Carlton 21 45  Carlton 26.5 50.5
Total 369 Total 345.5
Ave. Game Error 41 Ave. Game Error 38.39

One pleasing factor is that my “line machine” predictions was only 2.61 points worse than Sportsbets lines per game.

This week The Machine has thrown up some interesting lines. My rules stipulate that I can only bet if my line differs by more than 2 goals(all winning lines pay $1.92).

Formulated Winner Formulated Margin Sportsbet Line Difference Higgo’s Bet Stake
Collingwood V Geelong Geelong 12 5.5 (Collingwood) 17.5 Back Geelong at the line $5
Port Adelaide V North North M. 21 15.5 5.5 No bet
Hawks V Fremantle Hawks 52 29.5 22.5 Back Hawks at the line $5
Sydney V Melbourne Sydney 51 41.5 9.5 No bet
Essendon V Richmond Essendon 24 12.5 11.5 No bet
W. Bulldogs V Gold Coast Bulldogs 41 33.5 7.5 No bet
Brisbane Lions V GWS Brisbane 27 30.5 3.5 No bet
Carlton V Adelaide Adelaide 4 16.5(Carlton) 20.5 Back Adelaide at the line $5
WCEagles V St.Kilda WCE 38 17.5 20.5 Back WCE at the line $5

Interesting to note that The Machine has predicted two Sportsbet under-dogs; Geelong and Adelaide. This can be explained by Geelong’s big “ins” adding to the team Supercoach value(Bartel, Scarlet & Stokes in particular). Adelaide’s form last week makes for a big break-even adjustment, while Carlton’s break-evens decrease their value. Given the straight out win offers better value than the line, I am extremely tempted to take them for straight out wins BUT I MUST STICK TO THE FORMULA(special thanks to Shanen Ma for reminding me of this).

If all 4 best get up this week, I will turn a 2 week net profit of …. wait for it ….. $3!

While Mother disagrees with The Machine on the Hawks line, she is happy to back the other three – we will both be enjoying the added level of interest that these small and calculated bets bring.

I’m excited!

Yours analytically,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (12)

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  1. Shanen says:

    Cheers Higgo. Love your work. Keep it up.

  2. Shanen says:

    And don't worry about the seemingly measly $3 net profit – that can also be construed as a 3% profit, and in 2 weeks, not bad. Thats 78% per annum, you don't get that from the sharemarket. It's about the formula. If this formula can be proven, then the capital and scale can simply be scaled up… ie. $1000 capital and $50 bets = $30 profit. $10,000 capital and $500 bets = $300 profit (per 2 weeks).

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves – it's been 2 weeks. As a statistician you would know this is not a accurate sample size. I still love your formula, and would like to see how far this goes.

    ps. Punt responsibly everyone :) http://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/

    • MJ says:

      like .. good work shanen on your ps at then end :) should only be a bit of fun guys and a golden rule is gamble what you can afford to LOSE and not for the potential return you are hoping on

      • Higgo says:

        Dear Shanen & MJ,

        Extremely valid points re: the dangers of gambling. I have written off my $100, not expecting a return and will definitely not be betting any more if this runs out. Also it is important to note that If I do return a profit I WILL NOT BE REINVESTING THIS MONEY. I can not see how a punter can win when doing this. Any profit I may return will go straight into Mother's Grand Final day lunch celebrations …… she loves this day!

        If a bet is calculated and not made on emotion, then the outlay almost pays for itself in the added layer of excitement that it brings to the game; win or lose.

        Excellent discussion that you two fine minds have brought to the community – Thank you.

        Kind regards,

        Peter Higginbotham

  3. MJ says:

    Higgo you beaut :D love what your doing here, quite like a calculated punt myself. Rules are good, take emotion out and stick to the formula, like that you have a two goal buffer :) however just not feeling it myself as I think your machine is out .. but I guess we will see after a few more rounds

    I like the Geelong and Adelaide bets this week but like your mam there is no way that the Hawks will win by the machines 52 margin against Freo, granted sportsbet is a little more generous. Ross Loyn is mr defence and if they lose i can't see it been by more than 4 goals .. Its a no from me

    Look forward to tuning in over the next few fews for you to prove me wrong, great read and lots of fun, so good on ya

    • Shanen says:

      This is a good point MJ. I might also lean (slightly) to Freo at this line. But remember the betting line is 29.5, not 52…

      But just stick to the formular Higgo… – It is a very interesting formula… And as you stated, last week was a terrible week filled with anticipated results (I tipped 2).

  4. JohnnoB says:

    The more I think of Buddy and Cyril, the more I like Higgo's Hawks bet. Go you good Hawks!

  5. Paul S says:

    I think there might be something in this Higgo. So far your margins have been really good. I will be watching the last three games with you in mind.

    Go The Machine!

    Hey, you might get a job at Sportsbet out of this.

  6. Captain UnderPants says:

    Nice work Higgo – back in the game. I have been following your punts and have regained faith in The Machine now.

    Looking forward to next round. Some tough games!

  7. MJ says:

    egg on face :/ – great work higgo

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