Higgo’s Supercoach Punting Machine

Filed in Talking Strategy by on May 11, 2012 • views: 622

 

While building The Higginator earlier this year, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.

I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH VALUE AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!

This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to test in front of The Jock Reynolds Community.

My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.

Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after its testing phase, this formula has proven most accurate over the first 6 rounds.

My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered and if my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.

  Formulated Winner Formulated Margin Sportsbet Line  Diff. Higgo’s Bet Stake
1 Melbourne V Hawthorn Hawthorn 65 48.5 16.5 Back Hawks at the line $5
2 Adelaide V Geelong Geelong 10 7.5 2.5 No bet  
3 GWS V Gold Coast Gold Coast 38 22.5 15.5 Back Gold coast at the line $5
4 Richmond V Sydney Richmond 3 no line   No bet  
5 Brisbane V Collingwood Collingwood 15 27.5 -12.5 Back Brisbane at the line $5
6 Essendon V WCE WCE 7 no line   No bet  
7 North V Western Dogs North Melbourne 33 15.5 17.5 Back North at the line $5
8 Fremantle V Port Fremantle 21 33.5 -12.5 Back Port at the line $5
9 St.Kilda V Carlton Carlton 21 26.5 -5.5 No bet  

The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy. Here is mine;

1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2012 when this runs out.

2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.

3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.

 

My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92). In fact, I will only turn a Round 7 profit if 3 or more of my 5 bets get up! BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.

Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest and has served me well thus far in season 2012.

I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (16)

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  1. Mark says:

    Top shelf Higgo.

    Three or more of these get up, and I'm penciling you in for three votes this week, no matter what you say on Monday night!

  2. BB says:

    Id steer clear of the Melbourne-Hawthorn bet- I reckon its gonna be a 45 point margin.

  3. J-Mo says:

    Genius!

  4. I'm in love says:

    I'M TRYING TO QUIT BETTING! loljks now I have no chance

  5. The Wanderer says:

    yeah, I'll stick to fantasy footy, thanks Higgo :)

  6. Razzle says:

    did i just read brisbane over the pies…..okay…

    • JohnnoB says:

      Nope. He means Brisbane to lose by less than 28 points ..or win. Not a bad bet I reckon.

  7. Keffa says:

    Terrible Higgo. You've predicted a 65 point margin in the Hawks/Demons game and the margin was in fact 66. Hopeless!

  8. Such Is Life says:

    Well done Higgo. Just wondering how you're adding up the prices each week. Surely it's not done manually because that must take forever?!

    • Senior Female Crumpe says:

      I am sure Higgo has his spreadsheets doing all of the "heavy lifting".

      I decided to follow you Higgo – Last night's game was fun! You keep this up and we may have to go out on a date!

      • Such Is Life says:

        Yeah, since found out a way he may do it. I don't think you can really apply this formula to GWS because the majority of their players are still WAY underpriced, so I think you would yield more accurate results by removing their games from the equation.

  9. Keffa says:

    1 out of 3 @ $1.92 Higgo, looks like you're holidaying in Echuca next Summer!

  10. peter power says:

    I do not think many people will follow Higgo's forecasts after this weekend?

  11. Keffa says:

    Ouch. 1 in 5. Maybe the system works…… in reverse!?

  12. Jon Jon says:

    Like the idea, but on the basis of this week maybe you need to increase the factor for interstate travel and for break-evens.

    Apply the required changes for this week to the previous weeks and see if it still works out ok.