Trading for your SuperCoach Life!

Filed in Talking Strategy by on April 11, 2012 • views: 6022

Make sure you Catch the most recent Supercoach Video here!

Dear analytical devotees,

The title to this post may sound dramatic, but the importance of this trade window can not be understated. As discussed in our latest podcast, ALL coaches should be seriously considering using both trades this week for two reasons;

 

1. To Jump on Cash Cows

2. To harden your team for the upcoming Round 1 League battle.

A great joy of mine is to find out the big WHY and HOW questions. Why is it that I am still a virgin? Why does fecal matter have such a distinctive taste? …. just a few I am currently working on.

One great WHY and HOW question that I confidently solved is relevant to you; HOW and WHY do Supercoach Players prices change from week to week?

Using some simple mathematical modelling based on power regressions, I have come up with an excellent tool for forecasting changing Supercoach Player Values. While my model is based on 2011 fluctuations, I expect it to be very close again this year and I look forward to testing it against the true price changes that will eventuate after the next lock-out.

I will offer you two lists; Cash Cows & Spuds

The Cash Cows lists is very important to you now. You simply must jump on as many money makers as possible as you will use these later in the season to trade in more Premiums. The two coloured columns offer a value gain given a maintenance of the current average, while the red offers the value gain given a lower than current average game in Round 3.

 

Now the table of Cash Cows may need to be considered in conjunction with this next table – Pre-Round 3 Spuds. While trading in Premiums is not advised, tough times called for tough measures. Trading down a Premium to a Cow frees up enough cash to make important structural changes to your team ….. anyway, the two coloured columns again offer a decrease in value given the current average is maintained, while the red column anticipates an improved score output in Round 3 – a more likely outcome.

 

A few small words of advice to help your way with the big trades this week …

1. Remember Brian Lake before you think of ditching Greg Broughton.

2. Think ahead! What players are you hoping to turn cow cash into?

3. Cows usually become fat enough to trade between rounds 6 – 10.

4. Cows and bye rounds are not worth your worry but cashing in cows to Premiums needs some bye round thinking.

5. Which teams have good draws in the next 4-6 weeks? This will help you choose fast fattening cows …… ADELAIDE, ESSENDON, GEELONG & DOGGIES  ……. maybe.

6. Have a look at this article from Crouching – it shows you how last year’s winner used trading to his advantage.

More research is required from me and you!

Trade well, trade strong – take emotion out and bring analysis in.

 

Yours still crumpetless,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (104)

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  1. Tweeter says:

    lovely top work jock mate.

  2. Josh says:

    great work!!! have a question, thinking martin has to go for say a hawkins or whitecross, but whatta ya think of al christensen, i already have him in the side but dunno if i'm being biast cause i'm a geelong supporter. anyones thoughts would help

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Josh,

      Just a thought, but would you be disappointed if Dustin Martin scores 140 against Melbourne this weekend?

      When in doubt, hold onto your Premiums!

      Regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

      • Josh says:

        Thanks heaps higgo, but wouldn't I be better jumping on tommy hawkins or whitecross and reap the cash cow benefits of one of those two? Would also like your thoughts on al christensen!!

        Cheers Higgo. P.S your mathmatician skills are to die for!

      • WIFFO IS A FAGGOT says:

        i think you have missed a cash cow in that of sam reid from sydney, higgo!

    • WIFFO IS A FAGGOT says:

      great thoughts mate wow youve really got my brain ticking over

    • G Unit says:

      Young Josh, Christo = Jet. He was at them on Monday and looks good to shed the Sub jacket for mine, I'm holding onto him. Also thinking of ditching Martin, might have to give him a few more weeks though. The hawk is and option if you have a crap rookie or underperforming foward though mate. He is a beast. Whitecross looked good too.

      • Josh says:

        He looked great and I think he will run alot in the midfield this year, there are just so many juicy options running around after round 2…By the way what's your teams name G Unit, I wanna search them up.

  3. Stuart says:

    Great work Higgo . Now for the crumpet analysis

  4. Flash says:

    Couldn't agree more. Out Schoenmakers (planetary sized spud) and Hall (not impressed) and in come Dempsey and GWS Kennedy. King chaching.

  5. TA says:

    Top article Higgo. Just a quick question. I currently have David Hale in my rucks and I'm looking at changing him out for big Kreuzer. My question is how much is Kreuzer going to go up in price because if I can still afford him next week I'd like to use the 2 trades this week to have a bit of a reshuffle of my mids and forwards. Cheers mate.

  6. Heath says:

    Gday boys, love the site keep up the good work! Just after your thought on a double trade – trade hargraves for dempsey to get the $$$ to trade martin for goodes??

  7. Jacob Cecil says:

    Incredible Higgo! How can you come up with .

    Bloody fantastic. What's is your I.Q mate cause it must be up their with the best!

    Good to see some mid priced players in the cashies such as 'the girl name' Dempsey and Tomohawk!

    I am still scratching my head over Mr Greg B. he has proven to pump out some huge scores in the past, but Ross Lyon has been playing him in back pocket which is not his position and had a lock down roll on Stevie J. Not sure at all and not really wanting to ride him on if he keeps on pumping out sub 90! And I am not loving the expected price drop of 50k!

    Also I made a what I thought good double trade of this: Daz 'Michelle' Pfeiffer in the fwd to billie smedts(prev. back), billie to Dempsey and the in the rucks to get the cash, Mumified to The Kreuzer! I thought it's was pretty good for a year 8's might to come up with such a complex conundrum which involved subbing players and calculating my left over cash!

    Please reply soon, Cecil

    P.S. Accept my friend request on Facebook! :)

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Jacob,

      It is unfortunate that a high IQ does not correlate to a high crumpet sniff rate – I would trade a few IQ points for a greater social intelligence ….. and a few of Jock's rugged masculine features.

      Please don't trade Mumford for Kreuzer. Not only would you be using up a sacred trade but I really feel Mumford has a greater likelihood of a consistent 100+ point score.

      Pfeiffer … yes, consider trading. I think there are some better options than Smedts however.

      Great conundrums, keep on thinking and feel free to disregard my suggestions.

      Regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

      • Jacob Cecil says:

        I only traded pfeiffer for smedts because I had had smedts previously in my backs.

        • jimbo drouid says:

          You can move smedts forward or back as part of the one trade.

          I selected Scotland for trade, then used the sub to move smedts from forward to back and traded in riewolt.

          See heraldsun supercoach team page for full details. There is a post from warnie at the bottom of the page which explains all.

          I learned something new today. Just hope I haven't forgotten nuffin important doing so!

      • Jeffro Jones says:

        Higgo:

        I refer to my close and repeated examination of the "Seinfeld" sitcom – and particularly the episode where George develops the theory that "manure" is not such a bad word, because it is comprised of "Ma" and "newer", both of which have positive connotations. George, also in search of crumpet, expands upon this theory to the latest object of his desires, only to find she mysteriously develops an absent boyfriend, and ditches him. I refer to this because of your opening reflections regarding virginity and fecal matter, and fear that the former may have something to do with the latter. Just saying :)

        • Higgo says:

          Dear Jeffro,

          Is it wrong to discuss my hobbies during female interactions?

          I thought that experiments such as rating the bitterness of excrement made for interesting conversation and made me a "unique pick" or interesting POD for a potential mate.

          You might be onto something.

          regards,

          Peter Higginbotham

  8. Nick says:

    Hey Jock what do you reckon of L.Parker? considering trading but ive taken such a risk i cant do it. Thinking L.Parker for T.Greene?

  9. WIFFO IS A FAGGOT says:

    i agree with higgo, dont get off your premiums too early..

    HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE

  10. Ollie says:

    Worth trading say Devon Smith, Tory Dickson or Aaron Hall for Terry Milera?

    And what are your thoughts on Steve Johnson. Keep or trade off before his price goes down too much?

    • moncon says:

      I would say Milera has better short term job security than Dickson, and is in a more winning side than either Smith or Hall. But as a small fwd he might lose his spot to Schneider when he comes back, so I wouldn't hold him too long.

    • Brad says:

      Johnson is in for a massive price drop over then month or so, he needs to go.

  11. Dilligaf says:

    Thinking of making two trades this week – waters for Dempsey and pfeiffer for milera. Thoughts?

  12. cookie says:

    Hey Higgo,

    I want to get milera into my team, who should i get rid of- Smedts or Dickson

  13. Tim says:

    Hey Higgo,

    Love your work! So many cash cows and so many duds. Looking at offloading dickson to Green (via dpp with D.Smith in Mids) or should I look at a swap to Milera??

    Hope the easter bunny still comes to you next year!

    Cheers,

    Tim

  14. Watto says:

    First time playing supercoach in 5 years, absolutely love the website guys!

    Great article, have traded zorko for hawkins and kerridge for milera. Thanks for helping me get a respectable score in my first season back!!!

  15. Clayton says:

    Jock/Higgo, whats your thoughts on the old Josh Kennedy from Sydney? Guy seems an absolute gun, and thinking could be a permanent premium lock? Do you think he can keep the form up?

    • Tigerman says:

      Contested ball king, mate. As long as he keeps putting his head over it, he'll keep pumping out the big numbers

  16. Tigerman says:

    I've got the first four cows on that list, so I'm not to concerned about trading in rookies right now. Pulling the trigger on broughton, just got this feeling in my gut (maybe it's the curry I had for dinner, who knows)

    I nearly gave him the flick last week but held on. A 72 just doesn't cut it for me for a premium at 500k, picked up dempsey (who could be a solid D7 IMO) As I ditched a premium I thought I should pick up a different one and turned parker into JPK

  17. jtc13 says:

    Awesome work Higgo – Based on your analysis I am looking at the following possible trades for this week.

    Mellington out for Milera in Fwd line

    Morris out for either Bower or Mohr in Defence

    Alternative is to drop Mellington for Milera and exit Dustin Martin for Brent Stanton bolster midfield as I am sensing a breakout year for Stanton where he could actually go to the next level.

    Thoughts on these ideas??

    • The Pinky Puncher says:

      don't trade morris for bower/mohr, an expected increase is only 10k higher….. hold that one mate. and bower is playing collingwood and may fail miserably and mohr could go either way too. I like Morris chance os scoring bigger against Melbourne this week.

      Def get Milera or stanley in forward line for expected price increase.

      but have a good long hard think about Martins potential to score well this weekend too against Melbourne… Although Stanton is very tempting…

      if you do anything, downgrade a premium like Martin for say a Masten and save the cash. or better still if you can reshuffle subs into your mid/fwd line get the likes of your greenes/milera/kennedy/stanley.

      also look at if you have smedts to reshuffle him from bac/fwd/back to get the cash cows in your team that you need/want.

      TRY HARD NOT TO SIDEWAYS TRADE…

      • jtc13 says:

        Thanks Pinky – Might go with just the one trade in the forward line. I have almost all the other good rookies so based on your advice I would be sideways trading rookies for not much gain.

        I can give Martin another go before getting trigger happy I guess but that temptation is BIG.

  18. jimbo drouid says:

    Higgo great work.

    I have a supprter of the no sideways trade rule but i fear I am being seduced by the dark side.

    It is taking all my willpower to not trade Scotland for Scott Thompson.

    What to do?

  19. Domenic says:

    Hey guys.

    Loving the work you guys put together week in week out, gives us a totally different insight to the Supercoach world.

    I was wondering what you think of my proposed trades:

    Broughton to Dempsey

    Swallow to Stanton

    Leaves me with 300,000 + in the bank which helps for future upgrades.

    But, given they have scored big against easy opponents (and GC this week), I'm not sure if making this trade is the smartest thing.

    Thanks guys.

    • scotchncoke says:

      swallow to stanton scares me…one of our goals would be to end up with as many mid prems we can..can you use that money to upgrade a rookie mid to another prem…say ebert or barlow next week…

  20. Monty says:

    Great work Higgo thanks

    I'm stuck at a crossroad: should i trade out Broughton for Geary. If i do a have a lot of money left over to trade out Magner for a Premium next round + Geary is averaging more

    Thanks and great work

  21. Shannon says:

    Cheers Higgo, you have confirmed what I already thought. Keep the guns who may be under performing and get in rookies set to increase in value. Won't be making many changes until round 6 at least.

  22. Jesse says:

    Broughton out for Clarke. Mumford out for Ryder. Frees up enough cash to turn Clay Smith into Pendles next week. Good move? Also, Watson as capt this week?

  23. Monty says:

    OUT Broughton

    IN Geary

    OUT Martin

    IN Stanly

    Now next week i can turn Ledger into Pendles

  24. Sam says:

    After trading Broughton out of Dempsey, i know have 300,000 left over. I am looking to trade Tory Dickson to either Tom Hawkins or Terry Milera, which one do you think would be worth choosing?

  25. James says:

    Alright mates – great updates.

    What do you think about trading Smedts for Jackson Paine.

    My other backline rookies are: Bugg, Ellis. Morris.

    James.

    • Shannon says:

      posted this on another thread though Jackson Paine isn't likely to get too many more games due to premiership players coming back into the pies line up (Maxwell, Brown, Tarrant, Didak… not to mention Wood). With these guys back he'll be lucky to get a vest. I'd keep Smedts, he's playing and scoring ok. Save the trade to pick up a gun rookie: e.g. Milera, Smith, Magner, Kennedy, Cameron.

  26. thesupercoachking says:

    You dont want a paine in your dick,son

    • James says:

      u sure dont

      i am worried about smedts job secruity. but collingwood have a lot of stars coming back

      • thesupercoachking says:

        i saw smedts play at the g on monday and he looks in really good form so hes earnt a spot on my bench..

  27. jimbo drouid says:

    Bit early to make a call on Paine. Especially with a few ins for collingwood. I don't expect him to play this week

  28. TommysTigers says:

    heys guys,

    Just wondering if i should get James Magner into my side and if i should get rid off BROUGHTON!

  29. thesupercoachking says:

    what do u's think about shaw? he might come good when the other coll backs are in. I'm ranked in top 3000 and i've got players like tippett and p.davis. defently trading out davis next week..

    • morgs says:

      Shaw paid his dues tonight, got the points you expect from him

      (98 SC) especially considering how ordinary the pies were across the board tonight.

  30. thesupercoachking says:

    ok, when do the teams come out? both my trades are stuffed if mumfords out..

  31. whiteless says:

    is it worth while trading out hall for milera??? i dont know if its a wasted trade?

  32. chris says:

    Higgo or others what are your thoughts in regards to my thinking.

    Scotland OUT – Dempsey IN

    Dickson OUT – Milera IN

    Free up around $300k plus the massive increase of both inclusions and the reduction in Scotland after some poor rounds of 83.

    My issue is Milera job secuirty and whether he will actually continue playing once Schneider is back.

    If i did not complete the Milera trade then i was thinking getting Pendles into my mids with the freed up cash.

    • morgs says:

      hopefully you held off pendles for this week… And hoping you kept Scotland given his 129 points tonight….

  33. Jim says:

    hey fellas,

    whos gunna score better, h. shaw or g. broughton?

  34. Daniel says:

    HELP!!! My Midfield is as follows:

    Midfielders:

    J. Kennedy B. Goddard N. Dal Santo

    M. Priddis D. Martin T. Ledger P. Dangerfield

    Reserves:

    J. McDonald S. Coniglio

    I really want J. Magner in what should i do?

    (I have goodes who can swap from fwd line to mid for dangerfield and deledio who can swap with goddard from the backline)

    Thnaks for the help!!

    • adam says:

      get rid of ledger job security not good and super coach potential not good either. Trading coniglio is another option because he doesn't have a good super coach potential either. btw magner is a gun get him in 100%

  35. A Supercoach says:

    Complete the following trades:

    T. Ledger OUT – J Magner IN

    S Conigilo OUT – Toby Greene IN

  36. steven says:

    Hi guys just saw that priddis is listed as out (quad). Does anyone have any news on this/do you think he is just being rest against GWS and will be back next week?

    contemplating whether to bring in s selwood for priddis if it is a solid injury or to trade out ledger?

    Any info would be great!

  37. jimbob says:

    lads, thinking the following trades:

    H Scotland for C Demsey

    Pfeiffer for B Ebbett

    or

    D Martin for B stanton

  38. Clinnywinny says:

    Does anyone know how long Priddis is out for??

  39. jimbo drouid says:

    Priddis out……no…….

    What is going on, time for yearly haircut?

    Now I have 1 million down in casuality.

    Still I am going to wear it as they are both part of my long term plan.

    I have used my trades this week to get Dempsey and n reiwolt into my side. Dont want it give these guys up either.

    Just going to have to take a hit this week.

    • Clinnywinny says:

      Something about his quaddie. I don't no how serious tho, can't get any info anywhere! Some sites don't even have him listed as injured!

  40. Bob says:

    Thoughts about gaff? His price might go up and they have fit Gws.

    Adcock too inconsistent?

  41. Brad says:

    Hey guys,

    Can someone make my mind up for me coz i keep changing it every 2 seconds….Jock, point me in the right direction here mate ;)

    I can't decide between Gazza and Goddard for the Captains chair.

    Also I went with the 4 rookie rucks, who ALL happen to be playing this week (original skeptics can suck eggs)… who do i go with?

    Giles is up against Nic Nat and Cox….Leaning away from him with Brogan back.

    Redden in battling Mummy…if he plays…if he doesn't could go well against Seaby

    Longer is dueling it out with Crouching's mate the Sandi-floor, who may dominate the hit-outs but i reckon Longer could hurt him around the ground

    and

    Orrenson has H-Mac and Goldy…probably enough said there.

    Any opinions would be great…

    Goodluck for the round to all.

    • Clinnywinny says:

      Haha, wow. What a predicament! I've got nic nat and kruezer….. No such conundrums here. So I guess I'll go suck eggs?????? Lol

      Have fun with that

      • Brad says:

        Hah… firey,

        My 4 rucks combined cost $700 less than your 1 Nic Nat.

        Im tipping you also have Redden and Giles bringing your ruck costs to 1,167,000… thats 658,900 i have in another position scoring on the field. Too many players to chose from, what a dilemma ;)

        Looking for a big score from you this week Clinny

    • Bob says:

      Giles, to start, he has started year well, getting high scores against Kruezer/hampson, and goldstein/ Mckintosh, so he should be able to get a 70 odd against west coast. Redden would be my other, he should do alright.

      For captain I would choose, gablett, he is consistent against anyone.

  42. moncon says:

    What about Petrie. 500k, scores 74 R1 v Bombers, then in one of the biggest demolitions in history he scores only 102 v GWS in R2.

    A Kennedy's got a better average, he's 400k cheaper, & he's going up in price not down, so I reckon that's a trade right there.

    • moncon says:

      Ok so I just checked and Kennedy's average is 2.5 points less than Petrie's, but on the other hand Petrie is 508k not 500k so it cuts both ways.

      Hey Crouching, I reckon you're on Petrie too, do you have a devilishly inscrutable trading strategy or what

  43. moncon says:

    Alright, taking a spell

  44. Jumbo says:

    Oh the joys of hearing people jump off shaw and scotland early…..

    foolhearted emotional trading will cost you all dearly. Scotland hada blinder with 129 Points tonight and shaw did enough to keep with 98.

    Great output from these premium backmen. Although here's hoping Dempsey still pays off with a blinder for you all and warrants the cash saving; and continues to do so.. (I have him too)

    Just need Broughton to fire now. He's named in the middle so lets hope he gets plenty of it.

  45. Krisco says:

    Higgo,

    Rip-snorting stuff, as usual. As far as faeces goes – if you have to ask, you'll never know. It the sorta deep question only Crouching has the infinite spring of wisdom to understand.

    Anyways, I traded Duffield for Dempsey, to free up a bit of cash and because I only learnt how this break even business works recently. So I decided Duffers is potentially a spud and Dempsey is the cheap trade that might end up being a lock. Also, the Bombers have a gimme this week so I'm feeling triple figures comin' on.

    My other trade was Dickson for Porplyzia. Again I reckon Porplyzia is a potential lock if he can keep all his bits in the right places. And Adelaide are gimme central this year.

    Now Higgo it's your job to validate these decisions. Bring on the praise!

    Speaking of, this is my first year in Supercoach, and I know squat about the AFL due to many years following the round ball. Thanks in large to this website, I've managed to keep my scores 2,000+ and my in-laws scratching their heads as to why they're gettin' trounced. You boys rock!

    Kris

    • Krisco says:

      P.s. If I see Marc Murphy, so help me God, I'll kiss the bugger on the lips. Right on the lips!

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Krisco,

      What makes this game fun is bringing strategy and analysis in and removing emotion. This is how I approach crumpet …. while my break even is huge, I have a lot of upside after the events of last night – got a phone number!

      Your trade moves as described above are intelligent. As you say, I just hope Porp. holds his shoulder together.

      Mark Murphy was an inspired choice – as Jock would say, "Stick it up 'em mate!"

      Kind regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

  46. Sammy Winter says:

    That's why I didn't get rid of Scotland he was eventually gonna score something you'd expect from an expensive player. Stick with your premiums.

  47. jimbotraralgon says:

    with pendlebury sticking up the place last night, is it time to jump on him next week?

    surely a massive price drop is coming his way?

    thoughts?

  48. jimbotraralgon says:

    Leunberger and Fyfe.

    anyone seen the two injuries….are they dead to our supercoach or can we maybe wait them out.

    i have giles and redden and the big o so I might have to wait it out on the berger.

    fyfe sounds a bit more serious….I'm likely the look of whitecross in for fyfe.

    then I can chase after a half decent defender for yagmoor who is still stuck on my bench and is very unlikely to get a game for a while.

    BTW any one know the story on smedts?

  49. Damian says:

    I love your work higgo you are a proven genesis

    1. Remember Brian Lake before you think of ditching Greg Broughton.

    broughton 110 sc points

  50. Sammy Winter says:

    What do I do with Fyfe? If trade who for?

  51. Clinnywinny says:

    Hahaha. The thought of all those people who jumped off broughton this week for Dempsey! 110 v 6

    Lol.

    Lenny…. I love you mate!!! Welcome back to afl footy. What an inspiration you are to our sainters and my Supercoach! Keep up the good work Ol mate

  52. brodier says:

    Great site. Cheers.

    Luenberger I've read has done an achillies while Lake will get at least 2 weeks. What should I do with them?

    Thinking of NicNat for Berger but not sure about Lake.

    Thanks

    • jimbo drouid says:

      I have the same problem.

      If he plays well I'm thinking j roughead as he can go Ruck or forward. I have fyfe as well

  53. jimbotraralgon says:

    looks like i am going to lose 3 of the 5 leagues by less than 50. thanks a bloody lot smedts.

    still 1908 was never going to be enough. also unhappy with thompson, mitchell, leunberger, fyfe….the list just keeps going.

  54. Sammy Winter says:

    Lost in 4 out of 5 leagues I scored 2067. Thank you Fyfe, Milera Cloke, Martin, J.Riewoldt + like ten more for some great scores. NOT. Don't forget Fyfe. Anyway do we trade or keep Fyfe? If trade who for.

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