NAB CUP, 2012 Number Cruncher – V2

Filed in Supercoach, Talking Strategy by on March 22, 2012 • views: 1123

First and foremost, I must pay tribute to the great minds at Champion Data and The Herald Sun as the following statistical exploration stands on the shoulders of these giants!

The raw data I used was accessed from;

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/every-supercoach-nab-cup-score/story-fn88clrz-1226306301167

Firstly, this data is THE MOST IMPORTANT tool for gaining leverage against the Supercoach 2012 player prices. While not the only statistic, players’ pre-season form is always the “top dog” when finding bargain players.

While many of the other great AFL Fantasy websites have sorted this data, with particular focus on Price Per Minute, I felt it crucial to scale these prices before doing so. Why scale? Simply because of the limited draw and the fact that points against a weaker team easily become over inflated.

In an attempt to try and explain how this all works, I will focus on the NAB Cup Champs; Adelaide.

In NAB 2, Adelaide played a team(Brisbane) that was WEAKER than the average team for that round of games.

This was determined by averaging the calculation shown here for each NAB 2 team.

 

By completing this calculation for each Brisbane player and then finding the average, this gave me a solid statistic to measure NAB 2 team strengths.

 

Given Brisbane’s NAB 2 team strength factor against ADELAIDE was 0.95, all ADELAIDE players NAB 2 Supercoach scores were scaled down by multiplying them by 0.95.

In NAB 3, all Adelaide players were scaled down by multiplying by 0.81 as Collingwood’s NAB 2 Team was statistically very weak – lots of rookies played. I hope you get it!

Now for the all important SCALED SORTED TABLES ……

Top 20 POINTS PER MINUTE

Top 20 DEFENDERS –  POINTS PER MINUTE

Top 20 MIDS –  POINTS PER MINUTE

Top 20 RUCKS –  POINTS PER MINUTE

Top 20 FORWARDS –  POINTS PER MINUTE

Top 20 DUAL POSITION PLAYERS –  POINTS PER MINUTE

Top 20 ROOKIES –  POINTS PER MINUTE

While I don’t want to name names, one jumped out at me when I hit the button – Robbie Gray.

Please consider these scores in light of other key factors such as;

– Injury history

– Coaching/Positional changes

– Players NOT listed; Dylan Sheil & Sam Gibson come to mind.

– Your overall team balance! Having “swing sets” is very important this year.

Enjoy and I hope this gives you greater confidence when signing off on your 2012 squad.

Kind regards,

Peter Higginbotham

Comments (19)

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  1. Mark says:

    Why is swing sets so important this year?

  2. DDJ says:

    Loving your work, Higgo. Very insightful stuff.

    Any tips on my team going into Rd 1?

    Goddard, Carrazzo, Broughton, Heppell, Schoenmakers, Bugg, Ellis. (Guthrie, Morris)

    Ablett, Boyd, Selwood, Deledio, Parker, Pfeiffer. (Magner, Ledger)

    Hale, Redden. (Stephenson, Giles)

    Franklin, Fyfe, Chapman, Martin, Dangerfield, Smith, Kennedy. (Smedts, Kerridge)

  3. Mark says:

    Disregarding price, Swan or Pendles?

    Whos going to get the most points?

    • NeedAnEdge says:

      Personally I think Pendles will just play more often…Swan may go for another Arizona break.

      Pendles' consistency is the major point of difference between the two – when you are paying that much for the price difference becomes immaterial.

  4. chels says:

    terrific work Higgo, normalising this way is quite revealing! As an observation I would suggest reading the tables with an eye on the number of games played and total time of ground. For example, Burbury leaps out from the raw data but has low js (job security)

    regards

    chels

  5. Spifflicator says:

    The Ruck rookies highlights why the 3 rookie ruck strategy may be the way to go. I have not been a fan of this idea, but these stats show why it must be considered.

  6. JohnnoB says:

    Bingo Bango!

    I think you need a job at Champion Data Higgo – your talents are being wasted…. hang on, no they're not. Your scaling has sorted out not 1 but 2 decisions that I had to make.

    I am sending a crumpet in the mail to you.

  7. Brenno says:

    Jock!!!!

    Goodes or Gray?

  8. Slippery Pete says:

    When I win the 50k I'm taking Jock, Pete and Crouching out for a massive night at the Chelsea over 28's. We're gonna smash it to pieces!

  9. Mustard says:

    need peoples opinion on my team

    B: goddard, deledio, broughton, hargrave, dempsey, clarke, ellis

    bugg, l brown

    M: ablett, murphy, boyd, watson, b ebert, sheil

    ledger, magner

    R: nik nat, kruezer

    giles, redden

    F: franklin, fyfe, martin, dangerfield, porpos, d smith, pfeiffer

    smedts, a hall

    $46,600 left

    not sure whether to have lake or hargrave leaning to hargrave for the uniqueness.

    i reckon ebert due for a big one at his new club, and nik nat is going to explode and not to sure bout pfeiffer but should get games

    any opinion appreciated

  10. Hawker says:

    Jock great work with the scaling.

    Definitely think its the way to go to get more accurate numbers but im just wondering if there might be a more accurate method to get it a little closer.

    When you mention Gray I look at this and the teams he played against and we end up with a Scale of 1.16 vs Melbourne.

    Which seems kind of crazy when they looked disgraceful in the NAB Cup.

    Great work and maybe there is something im missing here. If not would love to here if you have any other thoughts on more accurate scaling!

  11. Westy says:

    Thanks Jock, this is awesome.

    Proposed team – likely to change numerous times between now and lockout.

    D: Goddard, Deledio, Broughton, Heppell, Hargrave, Ellis, Spurr, Bugg, Morris

    M: Ablett, Murphy, Boyd, Mitchell, Shiel, Magner, Pfeiffer, Ledger

    R: Mumford, Giles, Stevenson, Redden

    F: Goodes, Fyfe, Martin, Gray, Dangerfield, D Smith, Dickson, Saad, Smedts

    $57.6K left over. Any comments appreciated.

  12. Kade says:

    Top stuff!

    I have 1 forward spot left, do I go A Hall or T Dickson , I'm stumped

  13. Kris says:

    Christ Higgo I could kiss you! This is sensational stuff mate.

  14. Gibs says:

    Every week Champion Data, which powers the stats behind Australia’s biggest and best fantasy game, will reveal numbers that will guide our SuperCoach moves — who to trade, who to keep, who to bench and who to name as captain.
    courier in adelaide