Supercoach 2012 Rookie Number Crunch – Part 1

Filed in Supercoach, Talking Strategy by on March 20, 2012 • views: 2426

With every second that the clock ticks closer to the Round 1 lockout, my urge to play with numbers increases. While I know Champion Data will be releasing NAB Cup stats tomorrow (Wednesday 21st March), I just couldn’t help but fiddle with whatever data I could lay my hands on.

Key decisions relating to Rookie selections need to be made with clear analytical confidence. Drawing on numeric wisdom can offer us this confidence.

I used NAB Cup data and devised a weighting formula that factored  in;

  1. Dual Position Status – A key consideration when trading and dealing with the MONSTER bye rounds.
  2. The number of NAB Cup games played and whether or not the rookie played in NAB 5 (treated as a dress rehearsal by many clubs).
  3. A cost per Dream Team Point factor and an overall cost input.

The final Ranking generated was normalised to make the highest ranking player equal to 100.

While numbers don’t lie and numbers don’t have an opinion, the way that they are generated can be biased. These numbers don’t include a few important considerations such as % actual  game time, effectiveness of disposal and changes in coaching structures – all important game factors.

However well informed you are take these lists as further food for thought on your quest to locking in those all important rookies into your squads. Use this in conjunction with Jock’s latest rookie cheat sheet of course.

TABLE 1 – THE TOP ROOKIES OVERALL

TABLE 2 –  Top 10 DEFENDER ROOKIES

TABLE 3 – Top 10 MIDFIELD ROOKIES

TABLE 4 –  Top 10 RUCK ROOKIES

TABLE 5 –  Top 10 FORWARD ROOKIES
Doing statistics reminds me very much of painting mother’s house. A lot of tedious work needs to go into the preparation – data entry is akin to sanding. But then, when a formula is built and tested and you hit that button and let the data speak …… every second you slaved is worthwhile.
These statistics talk to me! They have not only consolidated some thoughts I had on a few rookies but they have highlighted a few that I had missed.
I am not going to name names as that is your job.
Stay tuned for Part 2 when I get my hands on some NAB Supercoach scores!
Kind regards,
Peter Higginbotham

Comments (63)

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  1. Alex says:

    Jock, you have gone above and beyond for us lad. Absolutely brilliant, you are acquiring godlike status in my world. Is there a church I can worship you in on a sunday, or a thursday night when teams are released. I am new to your site but I think ive been on it every night for the past 3 weeks. Cheat sheets, brilliant! The team builder is genius. Your podcasts make me laugh, crouching tiger is a funny little bugger and this table of Rookies is the cherry on a pretty tasty supercoach gateau. Cheers. Alex the coach of the BoltonCrows.

    • Jock says:

      Good stuff Alex! We are absolutely rapt that you're all getting value out of this.. chuffed

      • Alex says:

        It was my mates 30th birthday on saturday, didnt get him much of a prezzie but I did give him the link to this great site. Best present Ive given anyone for ages. If he beats me this year in our league ill probably think it was a bad idea. Should have just given him a st kilda mug or a coles voucher.

  2. The Big Fella says:

    Top Work Higgo! This is the kind of write up I'd like to get into in the last week before lockout. Got anything coming up for Premiums v. Fixture?

    • Higgo's says:

      Dear TheBigFella,

      A. Yes. I have been taking note of your astute posts ….. Waiting for some SC Nab scores to release an all important Draw relevant analysis. Hoping to have this out Thursday night.

      B. Does the "Big" refer to size or intellect?? You strike me as a well informed punter.

      Regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

  3. Jock says:

    Bloody unreal Higgo! So rapt to have you crankin this site out for us mate. Come a fair way since our Hungry Jacks 7pm Tuesday sessions eh mate!

  4. Jan says:

    Jock, will Zorko play Round1-3? Not many whispers around the traps!

    • Jock says:

      Round 1 a long shot mate – not much word from Lion land, could be more a rounds 3-5 prospect if I had to guess mate

  5. Mark says:

    Can I get your Opinion On this Jock

    DEF: B. Deledio, G. Broughton, N. Malceski, B. Lake , M. Clarke, T. Bugg, B. Ellis (T. Mohr, S. Morris)

    MID: G. Ablett, D. Swan, M. Boyd, J. Watson, S. Coniglio, S.Clifton (C. Smith, J. Magner)

    RUC: S. Mumford, J. Redden (J. Giles, O. Stephenson)

    FWD: L. Franklin, N. Fyfe, D. Martin, R. Gray, S. Sidebottom, P. Dangerfield, J. Porplyzia (D. Smith, J. Cameron)

    11k left.

    I’ve Stacked up on Forwards, because i believe the rookies in the forward line are the hardest to pick.

    Im sure Coniglio and Clifton will be regular starters, so i put them on the Ground.

    I still see C. Smith as being in the vest for much of the season so i might trade him out. This years Mitch Wallis. But not too many other options to fill his place.

    And the Backline is known for getting the least amount of points, so i’ve gone for more rookies in the backline. Hope to trade them out to strengthen that backline eventually.

    • cabba says:

      I have a similar backline, will be interested to see if it is dangerous excluding Goddard, Scotland and Shaw..

  6. bruce says:

    Awesome Jockster.

    From one Reynolds to another. Love your stuff.

  7. DamenS says:

    Surely during the preseason Time on Ground NOT being taken into account in these stats (with many players having played 3 half games etc.) renders the statistics useless. What is the point in providing statistics which you know have such a fatal flaw in the first place. Would you say to a crowd, "here's a meal I made – enjoy. It's poisonous though so don't actually EAT it". Someone like Tomlinson has played has played half games (except for the game against Richmond I believe) – so his "55dt point average" over a full game should be significantly higher. There IS a highly pertinent reason why the Fantasy Freako or Dr Dreamteam stats show the points PER 100 minutes played !!

    • JoffaC says:

      Breast or bottle DamenS?

      Like your passion but you are spoiling it for those of us with some smarts.

      Thanks Higgo – you deserve a bit of crumpet for this.

    • Falchoon says:

      If he has like you say, played only half games, why would you assume he's going to play full games in the regular season?

  8. chels says:

    thought provoking gain Higgo – always enjoy your analysis.

    Nine posts before some juvenile twerp wanted his team rated instead of thinking – at some stage the "gimmes" will need to grow up and stand on their own feet; lmfao

  9. Spifflicator says:

    Fantastic stuff again Higgo! I have really enjoyed all your work so far. Those parabolic curves at the GP must have inspired you!

  10. Brenno says:

    Jock,

    I opted to downgrade on Franklin and got Petrie. I think Petrie will have a massive yea with a easy draw but CAN YOU WIN WITHOUT BUDDY???????????

  11. NeedAnEdge says:

    When is the cut off for rookie promotions on to the senior lists?

    My recollection is that Couch hasn't been promoted to date.

    Of course Magner is the one missing off these lists as he was absent from Nab 5 – and no need to tell this audience that he has been promoted by the Dees.

    Great site and podcast by the way…best in class.

    • Higgo says:

      Dear NeedAnEdge,

      Magner, Sheil, Tomlinson, Gibson …. all solid picks that did not make the lists due to the Rd. 5 equation factor.

      Stay tuned for my next article before finalising your team.

      Kind regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

      • NeedAnEdge says:

        Agreed.

        Also keeping in mind trying to avoid an over indulgence in relation to GWS players.

  12. Jacob Cecil says:

    Loving it higgo! Great math skills! Just curious on Sam Gibson from the Kangas? A dud or injured?

  13. Jesse says:

    Took your adive on board and did some changes to my team. Any advice?

    Def

    Goddard

    Scotland

    Deledio

    Heppell

    Hargrave

    B ELLIS

    S Frost

    (Bugg)

    (S Morris)

    Mid

    Ablett

    Murphy

    Watson

    M BOYD

    S Clifton

    A Miles

    (T LEDGER)

    (J Magner)

    Ruck

    lEUENBURGER

    GILES

    (B LONGER)

    (J Redden)

    Forward

    Franklin

    Nathan Fyfe

    Hurley

    Dangerfield

    D MARTIN

    D SMITH

    J CAMERON

    (B SMEDTS)

    (J COUCH)

  14. Emre says:

    Are we going to see version 2 of each of your teams Jock?

  15. Octopig says:

    i once was blind but now i can see

    you sit above the gods

    cheers team

  16. Philzsay says:

    Interesting, some of the likely rookies are there.

    Another factor I would have added would have been the number of Best 22 players available for round 1 of the players Club not playing in the respective Nab Cup match. But of course that would be subjective and not the point of the exercise.

    The article does lock in Devon Smith for mine, and maybe give Kennedy a bit more thought.

  17. Jon Jon says:

    Top analysis Higgo – you have redeemed yourself from the SC scoring system fiasco :D

  18. Jon Jon says:

    No love for Clifton in the analysis?

    • Jon Jon says:

      BTW, I understand that he didn't make the list, I am just surprised, that's all.

      Where did he finish out of the mids?

  19. Barney says:

    Hi anybody want to join 'Bound For Glory' sc league 563803

  20. JE says:

    Below is taken from some (ahem) "other" fantasy site, created by someone nowhere near as legendary as Higgo! (Based on DT stats ONLY)

    _______________________

    Player: S.Clifton

    Pos: Mid

    Price: $121,800

    DT Pts Per 100 min: 72

    NAB 1 19

    NAB 2 45

    NAB 3 82

    NAB 4 21

    $ Per Pt: $1,699

    Comp Rank: 61

  21. JE says:

    Looks like Masten is out for about the next 3-4 round with a broken jaw, according to Herald Sun Website:

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/supercoach-news/c

    Wonder if that will have fantasy coaches scrambling to bring in Koby Stevens?

  22. SEFC says:

    HI guys………… join supercoach champions league. league code is 956572

    cheers

  23. SEFC says:

    Final spot in my back line up for grabs. LAKE or DEMPSEY?? $290,000 in the bank.

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