Supercoach 2012 – Back To The Future, Richmond V Carlton

Filed in Supercoach, Talking Strategy by on March 15, 2012 • views: 2774

Did you hear about the constipated mathematician?

He worked it out with a pencil.

While I may not be constipated at the moment, I have been trying to move a few substantial issues from my subconscious. One such issue is the much anticipated result of the annual Carlton V Richmond slug fest. I have been looking at this game with an eye on the result, an eye on individuals Supercoach scores and, if I had a third eye, an eye on the all important 3300 Supercoach point scoring rule.

The Supercoach scoring system is far more complex, descriptive and interesting when compared to Dream Team scores. While players are credited basic possession points for acts during the game, the value of these acts are dependent on when and where they take place. On top of this, in any game of football, only 3300 points (give or take a few points for rounding errors) will be awarded across both teams. This system rewards match winning efforts and is normalized to make the average player score on the ground 75 – Statistically, a player scoring 150 has done the job of two.

With this 3300 rule in mind, winning teams are more likely to snatch the greater share of the 3300. While calculating the exact formula is impossible, modeling quarter by quarter statistics can give close projections. Burst players, the game turners like Judd and Rioli can cash in with 100+ scores with low possession games if their efforts helped the team to a win. A player like Dustin Martin in a team like Richmond seems a good fit for this model. Could the Tigers improved backine, under new Defensive Analyst – Ross Smith, make Richmond players a more attractive Supercoach option for you in 2012?

Here are some of my preliminary Carlton V Richmond scratchings based on Round 1, 2011 data.

Lessons to learn from Scratchings …..

  • While a number of players from these two teams are attractive options to Supercoaches, please consider them in light of the shared Round 13 bye.
  • While Carlton has been statistically dominant in recent years, Richmond has made some important trades that may help bridge this gap. Ivan Maric will prove a greater contest for Carlton’s Rucks, the new inclusions down back (Ellis  & Morris) linked with the further development of Grimes, Batchelor and Rance may free up the likes of Newman and Deledio to have a greater impact in the middle and forward.
  • The development of Martin and Cotchin, linked with the hardness of Tuck and possibly Newman in the middle may enable Richmond to go a bit further to matching Carlton’s superstar mids.
  • If you believe that Richmond is a chance (I still have Carlton winning by 8 points), then expect BIG points from Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Riewoldt and Newman.

Of course, looking at one game in isolation is foolish – Richmond have a very difficult early draw. However, given the 3300 rule, if you are predicting a break out year for the Tigers, like me, then there is every chance that they will have more than a few value for money picks.

One more consideration ……. The Big Boys Fresh Legs phenomenon.

Teams such as Carlton, Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn, teams that are likely to cement an early top 4 position, will most likely start to rest players. I predict this to be far more of an issue to Supercoaches in 2012. Each club now is driven more and more by their sports scientists, with player rotaotions and weeks off becoming “the norm”. Why would you play your guns when you are guaranteed a top 4 position anyway?

So in summary,

  • Considering how teams will present and match-up in 2012 is important.
  • Considering a team’s draw in conjunction with the 3300 rule will also be of enormous benefit to you when selecting your squad.
  • When selecting from “the big boys”, consider also the increased prevalence of the fresh leg phenomenon.

 

Yours in statistical heaven,

Peter Higginbotham

 

Comments (26)

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  1. holy mackrel…thats some in depth thinking Mr H.

  2. Felton says:

    Awesome Higgo! Thanks again mate. Do you think Ellis will play in round 1?

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Felton,

      Quite confident that Ellis will start Round 1 – looking lockish to me.

      Regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

      • Jock says:

        Higgo mate – don't know how you do it. Top read old son. Hows the search for crumpet goin mate? See ya for the podcast on Sunday

  3. Benjamino says:

    Good job Higgo, great article once again

    I just noticed one spelling error. when you mentioned the Richmond's improved backline, you missed the 'l'. might want to fix that

  4. Jordan Forrest via F says:

    Hey Jock, do you do supercoach PRO? If so join our league: 343740 :)

  5. Twitter says:

    Nice work mate, who to get out of newman and delidio and do you think players in top four sides will be rested often?

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Twitter,

      Deledio's Dual Position status makes him a little more attractive. He is also expect to push further forward this year. I like your thinking – while Richmond has some attractive picks this year, think carefully about having only one per line.

      Once sides have made a top four position or they have a game with miminimal ladder impact, expect players to be rested. This will happen in the back half of the draw and will be become a real pain for Supercoaches. If the AFL bring in a 2-2 sub rule, the impact will be dramatic.

      Regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

  6. Jeffro Jones says:

    geez, those pickup lines are gold!

    • Higgo says:

      Dear Jeffro,

      Do you suggest I run with the ACUTE line or try this one out ….. "The force of gravity can not explain the way that I am falling for you."

      Any suggestions would help!

      Regards,

      Peter Higginbotham

      • Jeffro Jones says:

        How can I give lessons to a master?

        but these will have the average babe gasping with joy:

        "you have the ASCII to my heart"

        "36-25-36 – you're all perfect squares"

        :)

  7. Slippery Pete says:

    "the average player score on the ground 75"

    This is not quite true since the introduction of the sub rule but it's still within about 3.5 points.

    Now can you please rate my tea……. Ha ha, jokes.

  8. Alphacats 07 09 11 says:

    Is anyone considering Clancee PEARCE for a Mid/Fwd option?

  9. haydz6 says:

    Hey Jock you champ! i'm really struggling this year for some reason : and wondering if you could give me some advice on my pretty poor and unfinished team. thanks!

    DEF: Deledio, Lake/Hargrave, B.Ellis, T.Bugg (need 5 more)

    MID: Ablett, Swan, Boyd, Priddis, Coniglio (need 3 more)

    RUC: Leuenberger, Giles, Stephenson (need 1 more)

    FWD: Franklin, Martin, Riewoldt, Porplyzia, Cooyou, Smedts, A.Hall (need 2 more)

    I'm quite worried jock, i need 11 players with 3,174,300. Any tips please about anything? thanks champ! :)

    • Alphacats 07 09 11 says:

      A wise man once said, "Don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions!"

      • Jeffro Jones says:

        "The day soldiers stop bringing you their problems is the day you have stopped leading them. They have either lost confidence that you can help them or concluded that you do not care. Either case is a failure of leadership."

        — Colin Powell

  10. Superwolf says:

    Hey Jock,

    Myself and a mate have started up a new website to cover all things fantasy footy, punting, media and basically anything to do with AFL. We’ve already given Jock Reynolds a plug on our first podcast and will be referring to you guys a lot during the year during our ‘SuperCoach Match Committee’ segment. Hopefully you don;t mind the free plug here on your site.

    Cheers, keep up the good work.

    Superwolf

  11. Dwaino says:

    Addam Maric looks set to get promoted along side Brad Miller in the next 48 hours. He'll take King's spot in round 1 and will push King and Nahas for a permanent position. Had a work ethic issue at the Demons so didn't play a lot of footy but had a blinder in 2011 with a 30+ possie game. Given a footy life line with his child hood club, has impressed us Tiger fans far and wide this Nob Cup, and at $315,600 could be a deadset smokey. Of course, job security is an issue but Dimma has said in 2012 that games are no longer gifted as the development phase is over. If he performs he could keep Nahas or King out of the side and could push a $450k value.

    Just ear mark him.

  12. Tiger Tex says:

    Tigers couldnt find a spot for "push up"!! round 1. (not even an emergency).

  13. My Blog says:

    This blog was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped
    me. Kudos!

  14. Jarod says:

    Hey Guys Cotchin or Deledio?

  15. Lieselotte says:

    Wonderful article! We are linking to this great content on our site.
    Keep up the great writing.

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