Supercoach 2012 – Premium Lock Considerations

Here is some more GOLD fresh from the study of Maths and Stats man Peter “Higgo” Higginbotham;

In Podcast One I discussed an important factor that all coaches needed to consider when selecting their PREMIUM LOCKSThis factor is the standard deviation.

While we would all consider a player’s average point score to be vital, in my opinion, the standard deviation is just as important.

A standard deviation gives us an accurate measure of consistency – the smaller the value, the more predictable a player’s output. Picking players with low standard deviations gives me greater confidence in predicting my teams expected weekly score.

Taking into consideration all players with a 2011 Supercoach average of above 90, the following list ranks the top 20 according to standard deviation;

As you can see, Priddis, Murphy and Deledio are standouts. They played every game in 2011, each with averages above 100 and each with low standard deviations that tell us that they are highly consistent scorers around their averages. Pendlebury must also be considered given his huge average, but do we need to consider price in our decision also?

Of course! The name of the game is getting the best value for money isn’t it? But when it comes to premium locks, I tend to forget about the spend. I want a player that I can “set and forget”. But buying slightly cheaper premium locks will free up cash for a slightly more predictable mid-pricer …..

Let’s assume now that our player outputs through 2011 were normally distributed (or bell shaped). If this was the case then we have 84% likelihood that a player will score greater than their average less one standard deviation – what I have called the LOCK VALUE.

Finally, I have considered a player’s 2012 price against their LOCK VALUE to come up with a VALUE RATING as shown below;

 

Very interesting! On inspection at this stage I will be locking Priddis, Murphy, Deledio, Scotland and picking a few more from lower in the table. Sheils looks like a safe, yet potentially unique pick and Boak, Suckling and Kerr appear to be great value locks.

While my analysis continues (with factors such as age, team and injury considerations), I will stop the article here.

The point that must be emphasised is that success in Supercoach does not come from luck, but from careful squad selection based on in-depth numerical analysis. Adherence to the mathematics behind the game gives you just the edge you may need to crack into the top 1000 this season.

Isn’t maths fun!

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Comments (42)

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  1. Daniels says:

    Don't care about the stats mate. Gut feeling says stay right away from McVeigh

  2. Zaharakass says:

    It's a nice stat Jock/Higgo & does have it's place re: selection . To highlight the nicety of this stat for the coming year is eg : Mid Guns = Pendles – Murphy – Priddis – ? – ? etc . These 3 guys with Std Dev's sub 20 from last year should move into some sort of priority , given the fact that it turns out to be a nice split through the byes with Priddis R11 , Pendles Rd12 & Murphy Rd13 . It adds spice to your M4 selection for sure if you look at it that way . My only wish from that group of 3 Mr.Consistents would be to see Mr.Priddis whack it on the boot just a bit more .

    PS : did a quick calculation the other day re: Jelwood's Std Dev , looks ordinary on the face of it , but take out his early season concussion & brings it back to 25 , food for thought .

  3. Peter Higginbotham says:

    Love you premium lock spread thinking Zaharakass, and your consideration of "other factors" re:Selwood.

    I must mention Ablett. He didn't make these tables due to a score of 19 in round 16 last year. Removing outliers is what mathematicians do.

    I am sure that for most, Ablett wil be the first choice when it come to Premium Locks.

    Regards,

    Peter Higginbotham

    p.s. will you be taking your namesake?

  4. chels says:

    interesting stats Higgo, but I am wary of the assumption that the distributions are normal. Some quick stem and leaves suggest otherwise.

    The analysis also assumes 2012 will be like 2011 – which is why the other factors are so vital. A better pre-season or a change of coach may be such an indicator.

    To quote George E.P. Box, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin: "all models are wrong, some models are useful."

    regards

    chels

  5. Peter Higginbotham says:

    Great feedback Chels!

    A. The assumption of normality was cheeky but worth punting on. I do have long run statistics for each player which are more normally distributed but these raise further questions.

    B. The assumption that 2012 wil be like 2011 is what prices are based on. This forma a solid statistical platform to work from – unless you have a crystal ball.

    C. A nice and neat quote but I perfer this one; "Any model based on logic and reasoning is better than no model at all." P. Higginbotham

    Thanks for thinking! It seems we may have attracted some fine Supercoach minds to the site. Jock wil be pleased but feel slightly out of his depth!

    Regards,

    Peter Higginbotham

  6. Aden15 says:

    I think priddis is set for a big season and i must say your table looks pretty accurate

  7. Russell Peters says:

    I take the point on ablett but what about swan, boyd, rockcliff, judd, dal santo, s thompson and goddard?

  8. Zaharakass says:

    My word Peter , I will most definately be continuing with " Kiss My Zaharakass " . Being a loyal Bomber , it came down to , The Grumbletons , The Hurley Burleys & yes , Zaharakass .

    chels , I'll get to that shortly .

  9. Zaharakass says:

    Erm , yep , Higgo , forgot Ablert Jr's knock on the head , too late now , time for kip .

  10. chels says:

    would the quote be from your recent pioneering work: "thinking and biases in champion data" (2012) Higgo?

    Thinking is the only correct approach. When one draws an inference (Crouching: a bit like drawing mozzarella) it is desirable to have good data to poor data if you are going to act. I am not sure long run data is better, though (ironically) it may give the illusion of more comfort.

    Aden15's approach seems to be confusing reason / logic with emotion. However, that does not mean he will not be crowned SC champion at the end of the H&A season.

    Let the theorising end and the footy begin.

    regards

    chels

  11. Nicholas says:

    anyone getting O'halpin on there team I'm not sure weather to get him or not what do u guys think

  12. The Big Fella says:

    Great Article – Although, through high school I was never a fan of Maths. Footy/Racing was my food for thought and the Paper containing a form guide usually made it's way into Maths with me. What did I learn? Highlighted by winning a very competitive Tipping Comp in Year 10, and that was exactly what DANIELS and JOCK mentioned at the top, was 'Go on Gut'. While this table is very good, and points out a couple that I did not think were so consistent, it basically confirms what a trained footy eye suspected. Priddis, Mitchell, Murphy (All of which I have had the last 4 years) are super consistent. My formula for selection was simple. Play most/all games + Be Good + Consistent = Selected. Kirk, Boyd etc. Super Coach Gold. This year? I will be rolling with Sammy, Murph, and Sideshow Bob again. If I can find the cash, Jack Redden too. Pendles? No. Throw maths out the window with this one, because my GUT says young Scotty will have to average about 135 to hold onto that pricetag. And with Collingwoods fixture, I'll wait a few rounds.

    Great Article though.

    @Higgo – Have you got a similar table that could include some of the following factors (You can determine their value within the formula)?

    – Games played last 3 years

    – Avg. Points per game

    – Pricetag

    – The players respective clubs fixture eg. Player X

    scores 150 v. GC, PA, Bris – But only 80's v. Haw, Coll, Geel.

    Basically trying to get a mix of your table above, and find out the extra value of NOT missing games (Kirk) and having a favourable fixture (Andrew Swallow gets to play GC and GWS twice each this year)

    Thanks guys, great site.

  13. Ryan says:

    Great article, but the most important stat for me when picking premos is Durability. Total points at seasons end is all that matters if your going after the 50k.

    • The Big Fella says:

      Spot on! Hence my post ^.

      If we could get a table like that telling us which players are the most likely to play EVERY GAME and have more games v. Bottom 6 teams – You would have to load up. As I mentioned in my post, Mitchell Murph and Priddis are in. Swallow is going in pending NAB Cup Form. And ONLY because he scores well, but North gets to play GC and GWS twice each. Only other club to do so is Adelaide.

      Im backing Higgo to get onto that! :P

      • Jock says:

        Great call re the Roos playing both GC and GWS twice – that is bloody significant isnt it mate. North players have to be looked at in a better light with that in mind no doubt

        • The Big Fella says:

          Went with Goldstein last year, and laughed all the way to the bank. Was going with the Brisbane Burger this year simply on Cost, but that may be on the back burner. Especially if Goldy tears it up.

        • The Big Fella says:

          FYI – North plays GC & GWS in Rounds 2 & 5 Respectively. So should Goldy, Swallow, Boomer etc fire, you should get off to a good start to the season. Also may see blokes like Bastinac take it up a level, and new blood like Sierakowski getting a good run too. More importantly though, aside from a halfway (Rnd.12) rematch v. GC – They are rolling into GWS in the last, and by last memory SuperCoach GF Round. Considering by then Brogan, Cornes, McDonald and Power may have all blown a fuse, North could be up for a Geel v. Melbourne score and Individual SC Scores to boot. Unless of course they enforce a Hawthorn like REST ROUND and absolutely no one worth mentioning is playing….

  14. theparxman says:

    ' Higgo's Consistency Coefficient' is invaluable, Good work.

    I go by gut, and my gut tells me to examine the stats.

    Then my gut does some editing.

    I'm sure I'll be changing my line-ups on a daily basis anyway.

    What are your thoughts on starting rookie numbers?

    I usually have 11-12 in my line-up, hoping at least 1in 3 become regular players and profitable.

    I balance that with the type of players on your list, consistent.

    What's a good balance?

  15. Grennay says:

    Can you post how you made these calculations? It would be great help…

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