Supercoach 2012 Mid-Price Break Out Candidates

Filed in Supercoach, Talking Strategy by on January 23, 2012 • views: 2916

By resident Stats and Maths legend Peter ‘Higgo’ Higginbotham…

Jock’s Locks, the Premium must have players in Supercoach 2012 have been spruiked all over town. It is time now to reveal what I believe to be the make-or-break component of your Supercoach team; The Mid-Pricers (players priced between $200,000 and $500,000)

In this article I hope to predict which mid-priced players may be worth taking a calculated punt on in season 2012. Last year we saw the emergence of players such as Luenburger, Fyfe and Goldstein, but how could one predict this year’s break-out players. A more important initial question may be this; Why would a coach go for a mid-pricer when there are so many potential gun rookies to pick from this year?

The answer is simple – you get what you pay for. What I want is a player in my original squad that can average over 85 and will be in my side for the finals. It is very rare for a rookie to fit these criteria. Rookies are cash making tools used to trade in more reliable and higher point scorers over the course of the season. Too many rookies in your squad will force your hand into using too many of your trades, too early in the season. The cash made from trading in a well performed rookie often goes straight into converting your sub 85 point mid-pricers to premiums.

A well balanced team should aim to hit the 10:10:10 ratio, or the 10 cubed theory as I introduced in podcast 2 – that is  10 rookies/10 mid-pricers/10 Premiums. This can easily be checked using my Team analysis tool – The Higginator, and this strategy gives your team a good chance of having 15 Round 1 players that will be there during the finals time. The other half of your squad will be used strategically to trade up, trade down and to cover injuries, hopefully ending up with a full squad of 30 reliable, 85+ point scorers.

So forget about saving money in your trade kitty, spend up big to ensure you have the best team you can get, a team with as many potential guns that will be there at the end.

Here is my list of mid-pricers that I will be keeping a very close eye on over the NAB Cup …. And remember, I don’t guess, as a mathematician I draw conclusions based on careful observation, statistical analysis and insight.

DEFENCE

True defenders generally are low point scorers so try to avoid jumping on perceived bargains such as Kelvin Moore. I expect most backlines to go for the Rookie-Gun structure this year. However, here are a few to keep an eye on;

    • LAKE, Brian $286,900 Very much dependent on NAB Cup form.
    • CONNORS, Daniel $269,200 At this price he is a “must pick” if he can make the 22. Prior to injury and a Sydney brawl, Connors point scoring ability had him at keeper status.
    • TUOHY, Zach $259,100  Irish experiment about to commence third season. Has already shown enough. Expect further improvement and a regular spot in Carlton’s line-up.
    • DEA, Matthew $230,400 May have a new role as running half-back. Cotchin talked him up as a pre-season flyer.

MIDFIELD

Plenty of potential bargains that I have culled down to just 8. At the top of my list I am placing “the swingers” (dual position players). If you are going to take a risk on a mid-pricer, it is best to minimize this risk with a swinger.

  • MONFRIES, Angus (FWD) $451,500 Has bulked up and is working at a higher level this year.
  • DANGERFIELD, Patrick (FWD)$435,400 Has worked hard on his endurance ….. ready to take it to the next level.
  • DIDAK, Alan (FWD) $336,100 Played injured in 2011, about to turn 29. There is still some point scoring magic left in those legs.
  • BARLOW, Michael $453,600 Barlow or Hayes?
  • HAYES, Lenny $422,000
  • BASTINAC, Ryan $377,200 Third season breakout expected.
  • LUCAS, Kane $223,900 Can he crack into the Blues midfield? Expect many more games in 2012.

RUCK

Expect many to go for 1 premium, 3 rookie structure this year. But there is one worth a punt;

    • MCINTOSH, Hamish $364,300

FORWARDS

  • RIEWOLDT, Jack $441,600 Not Nick, Jack. Better value and hopefully will play without injury this year.
  • BROWN, Jonathan $397,900 Definitely in. May cost you a trade if injury strikes, but I expect him to be a big point scorer early in the season.
  • FASOLO, Alexander $348,900 Super efficient point scorer ready to go another level.
  • MORTON, Mitch $302,400 Expect him to be a big part of Sydney’s new forward structure –SCG suits his game.
  • BATE, Matthew $294,300 Having an excellent pre-season.
  • ROHAN, Gary $293,500 Ready for breakout, nice little plug from Inside Football and Mike Pike.
  • PORPLYZIA, Jason $229,600 Pre-season flyer, at this price will be in a lot of teams.

While it is too early to worry too much about your final squad, now is the time to start taking note of any players who may have good reason to play above there starting price. Hopefully, like me you will keep adding to your player data bases so come Round 1 lockout you can select a squad that minimises risk  and maximises your chances for Supercoach success.

Please add any further insights that you may have as it will help me with the data gathering process.

Comments (26)

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  1. theparxman says:

    I like the touhy, Dangerfield, Bastinac, bate, Rohan and the porkpleaser.

    Injury clouds always scare me away from Brown and Didak.

    Dangerfield likes getting injured. Dangerfield is in my team, but I'm always concerned he will get injured running into goalposts, or even trying to headbutt wild animals at Adelaide zoo.

    Dea?..Thought you just made up that name to screw with my head.

    What scares me is I'm hearing Tiger fans starting to stir for the first time this century.

    1995 was the last time I heard a peep out of em..I smell a conspiracy…

  2. Jack McCubbin via Fa says:

    Nice read jock, key area the mid priced players. Malceski, curnow and birchall have been mentioned here and there. Thoughts?

  3. Higgo is the midprice guru mate – Im a bit of a guns or rookies man myself. Malceski – bionic man set to break down, Curnow – durability concerns and ? around wether he is able to reach premium point status, birchall havent looked at yet mate.

  4. Jack McCubbin via Fa says:

    Sorry higgo, paying all credit to the jock! Thanks anyway jock. Loving all your work. Check birchall out. Hawks love to score sc points and he will go under radar again i reckon

  5. TheBloodsFC says:

    Why "Jack not Nick"?? Didn't you talk him up NROO in your podcast?

    Anyway, any idea when next podcast will be out – loving your work boys!

    • Jock says:

      Higgo wrote the article mate – I'm Nick all the way let me tell ya. Glad you are enjoying the show. Next podcast will be out early next week mate

  6. Bretty says:

    Would you go near Phil Davis or Rhys Palmer this year Higginator?

  7. Norris Butler says:

    I agree Bretty, Phil Davis could be on this list hey Jock?

  8. theparxman says:

    I'll put him on the short list of options, but would prefer if the name was changed, or a few letters added on the end. Way to short a name for my liking.

    Now take Dangerfield, thats a good long name.

    Will put Shoenmakers on the short list just for name length.

  9. Will have a gander mate – hes gone under my radar thus far

  10. liam cole says:

    Thoughts on Dempsey and Winderlich? Yes, I'm a bomber.

    • brian says:

      think windowlick could be a decent option this year, bombers are on the way up so the stats will increase too. a good year to pick essendon players

    • Jock says:

      A no on both so far – Winderlich a bit fragile with Hammies from memory and ther's too many in line before Dempsey I reckon

  11. MTK says:

    What about Witts at Collingwood? With Leigh brown gone, and Cameron Wood looking like the next Ted Richards, the Pies ruck stocks look a bit shaky. I reckon this guy could be a big points improver this year

    • Jock says:

      Yeah mate – there is a bit of hype around witts. But you know mate what I've seen of him hasn't been real flash – be good to see how he matures into the NAB

  12. brian says:

    what are the thoughts on port adelaides John Butcher?? 285k averaged 64 in 4 games last season?

  13. Mitch says:

    Take a look at Tom Downie about 202cm and played basketball for australia. Really mobile and moves like a midfielder. Giants convinced him to enter the draft and went at 46 I believe cant quite remeber. {ruck}

  14. DamenS says:

    I'm a proponent of the Guns and Rookies strategy now. 15 Premiums and 15 Rookies means the 15 rookies are making a heap of cash (a number of them potentially even becoming keepers ala Isaac Smith and Tendai Mzungu), and the 15 Premiums are already locked in from the start and no need to waste trades on them (barring long-term injury). The Rookies just need to play to go up in price, and any Mid-priced you select need to kick it up a significant notch to become a "keeper" – You need significantly more than 85 points for a keeper for anything other than a bench player if you want to win overall – in the backline you could probably get away with a low 90's + player.

    Who's talking about "saving money in the trade kitty … [get} a team with as many potential guns that will be there at the end" ? Guns and Rookies strategy would also be to use all of your cash from the start. No difference there. I would take 15 guaranteed premiums at the start over 10 guaranteed and 10 maybes.

    I'm also iffy on Daniel Connors – you mention he is a must pick if playing and that his point scoring made him a keeper prior to the Sydney incident (which has not been the only incident – and is not true anyway 78 SC points is NOT a "keeper"). So out of 5 seasons, where he has played 4,4,2,14 and 2 games, I would suggest we NOT focus on the one season where he averaged 78 for 14 games, but suggest that even if he starts the season, he is a huge selection risk and at his best he was well BELOW "keeper" status anyway.

    PS – Once again, if you want to go for the overall win, it is very difficult to be "using too many of your trades, too early in the season", because that is the risk you have to take and that's what the winners always do. Upgrade the team early (as early as possible – there is no such thing as "too early" unless the rookies are still ascending in price), using a lot (what does "too many" mean ?) of trades and hoping for luck with injuries in the later stages of the season.

    Midpricers are not "the make and break component of your Supercoach team", the whole TEAM is. Choosing the right Premiums is the least difficult, choosing the best Rookies is probably the most important (as they generate the most cash, or become keepers). IF you could chose 10 midpricers ALL of whom became keepers, your strategy would work – I posit this is unlikely. If 5 of them turn into keepers, why not have just have the 15 Premiums from the start anyway ?

    • Jock says:

      Damo – mate – I have been at Higgo about this for donkeys years mate. Im a guns and rookies man myself. Always go in with a twist of misprices bargain risk but for the most part the middies carry a big slab of risk with less than their share of reward.

    • Figga says:

      15/15 strategy May work if you can get 15 real premiums into your team eg: 110+ points, so only 1 possible Defender (Goddard) and one possible Forward (Franklin) the rest coming from Midfielders and Rucks. Problem is that history shows that the most rookies to cash in on come from the Midfield. I believe that you have to take a chance on mid range in your Def/For lines. I Still think that 10-12 premiums with a few mid range players in your For/Def, and there are Plenty of good ones ;)

  15. James says:

    Hey jock. Loving this stuff mate. Been a sc fan for years and this website is pure gold. I'm looking for information on chapman an also brad dick. Just tinkering with my forward line and these two just seemed to stand out but would love your opinion

    • Jock says:

      Gday there James – great to see you on the site mate. Look – with chappy the word is he limped through last season and is cherry ripe now. My call on him is be extremely cautious, theres nothing to suggest to me that the same soft tissue injuries will keep recuriing. I'm looking at going heavyish on rookies in my forward line as the premium selections are thin on the ground and the rookies are there. Brad Dick – strongly think about him as one of your cheapies pening his NABB cup form

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